Sam Mitchell : Kelly Olynyk is going to avg 19/8 in a few years

[Who]

Olynyk has looked great. I love how dangerous he is when he catches the ball no matter where on the floor he receives it.

Low post. Right block. Left block. 8-10 footers. 12-15 footers. Elbows. Back to the basket. Face up game. Can dribble. Baseline shots. Runners off the dribble. 15-18 feet. High post game. 18-22 feet. 23-25 feet. Three point shots. Top of the key. Wings. Corners.

He is a threat to score from absolutely every spot on the floor. So rare especially for a big. Plus Olynyk has the passing ability to find cutters. Lovely.

[clover]

While Olynyk is playing some inferior players, although O'Quinn and Nicholson are legit NBA players, Olynyk is also not playing with a single guy who looks like they could ever start an NBA game.

In fact, just Pressey and Mitchell look like they could possibly develop into rotation guys.  I'm sorry but I just don't see Iverson making it, and Fab...he looks so incredibly slow and unexplosive.  Nobody else on that team ever sniffs the NBA.  I doubt they ever even get a camp invite.

I think Iverson has looked very promising in his short minutes.  Doubt the C's want to go overboard on him until they see a little more and get his contract hammered out accordingly, however.

[kozlodoev]

Danny has been fairly clear in saying he doesn't see Olynyk going up against the power centers of the league at least until he's got some more age and muscle on him.

That was a figure of speech. You could swap Tyson Chandler with Love, Garnett, Bosh, or Randolph.

[clover]

Danny has been fairly clear in saying he doesn't see Olynyk going up against the power centers of the league at least until he's got some more age and muscle on him.

That was a figure of speech. You could swap Tyson Chandler with Love, Garnett, Bosh, or Randolph.

Fair enough.

[Prof. Clutch]

I love how easy it is to just throw around these lofty numbers we believe people will average in a few years with this air of casual expectation.  It's just like how we always see people saying "oh, he's gonna be a 20 and 10 guy" like that is just some regular thing.  There wasn't a single player in the league who averaged 20 and 10 last year!  We should all be beyond ecstatic if KO is averaging anything close 19/8 in a few years.

I'm not sure people realize how incredibly hard it is to average 19 points and 8 rebounds per game in the NBA.  There's only 12 guys who averaged 19+ ppg last season and only 21 players who averaged 8+ rebounds per game...in the whole league! 

Guess how many players averaged both last year? 4. 

Know who they were?  Lebron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, and Blake Griffin.

So if in a few years KO is averaging 19 and 8 (numbers comparable to some of the best players in the league) let's all acknowledge just how improbable that was considering he didn't even average those numbers during his best season in college.

[PhoSita]

I love how easy it is to just throw around these lofty numbers we believe people will average in a few years with this air of casual expectation.  It's just like how we always see people saying "oh, he's gonna be a 20 and 10 guy" like that is just some regular thing.  There wasn't a single player in the league who averaged 20 and 10 last year!  We should all be beyond ecstatic if KO is averaging anything close 19/8 in a few years.

I'm not sure people realize how incredibly hard it is to average 19 points and 8 rebounds per game in the NBA.  There's only 12 guys who averaged 19+ ppg last season and only 21 players who averaged 8+ rebounds per game...in the whole league! 

Guess how many players averaged both last year? 4. 

Know who they were?  Lebron James, LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, and Blake Griffin.

So if in a few years KO is averaging 19 and 8 (numbers comparable to some of the best players in the league) let's all acknowledge just how improbable that was considering he didn't even average those numbers during his best season in college.

All great points.

Not as unreasonable to hope Kelly could one day average 15-17 pts and 6 or 7 rebounds, though.

Those will be empty numbers, though, if his shooting percentages aren't good and / or he takes away more on defense than he gives you on offense.

[Fafnir]

So if in a few years KO is averaging 19 and 8 (numbers comparable to some of the best players in the league) let's all acknowledge just how improbable that was considering he didn't even average those numbers during his best season in college.

He played 26 MPG in college.

You're right that 19 and 8 is are gaudy numbers in the NBA, but to say he "didn't average them in college" isn't a good way too look at it when the game is shorter and also has a much longer shot clock.

Edit: I just looked Aldridge only was at 15/9 in 33.7 MPG in college his final year at college.

[Monkhouse]

My realistic expectations would be.

14-17 1 SPG, 2-5 APG, .8BPG, 5-6 RPG.

My exact statline of him in 2-3 would be.

14.7 PPG, 0.9 SPG, 2.1 APG, .07BPG, 5.6 RPG.

Pretty good if you consider he was the 13th pick in a weak draft.

[danglertx]

One thing KO is going to have to change is when he has a shot, he has to take it.  You don't just get open shots all the time in the NBA.  You turn down a good look and you might not get another one in just 24seconds.

Also, if you make a move with under 10 seconds on the shot clock, you can't just get stopped and pass it to someone with 2 seconds left.  You make the move you have to get the shot off or get it to someone who is open for a shot.

[slamtheking]

My realistic expectations would be.

14-17 1 SPG, 2-5 APG, .8BPG, 5-6 RPG.

My exact statline of him in 2-3 would be.

14.7 PPG, 0.9 SPG, 2.1 APG, .07BPG, 5.6 RPG.

Pretty good if you consider he was the 13th pick in a weak draft.

those would be pretty good stats with his draft status in consideration.  having watched him a couple of times now, I think in 3 years his stats might be something like this:
18 PPG, 3 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1 SPG, .5 BPG.
I think he'll be a near-all-star on offense and be at best competent on the defensive end.  I could see him having some 30-pt games during the course of a season.

I think a lot depends on who else Danny adds to the roster in the next few years.  If we get a real stud in the next draft--depending on that player's position--I think Green, KO and Sully could be a nice 2-3-4 punch on offense with that stud.

[Snakehead]

So if in a few years KO is averaging 19 and 8 (numbers comparable to some of the best players in the league) let's all acknowledge just how improbable that was considering he didn't even average those numbers during his best season in college.

He played 26 MPG in college.

You're right that 19 and 8 is are gaudy numbers in the NBA, but to say he "didn't average them in college" isn't a good way too look at it when the game is shorter and also has a much longer shot clock.

Edit: I just looked Aldridge only was at 15/9 in 33.7 MPG in college his final year at college.

Not a fan of looking at college production for almost all players, but especially bigs.  Olynyk's game was always more suited for the pros.  He will benefit off other smart players, spacing, ball movement, and the way PGs will feed a big in the NBA.

One thing KO is going to have to change is when he has a shot, he has to take it.  You don't just get open shots all the time in the NBA.  You turn down a good look and you might not get another one in just 24seconds.

Also, if you make a move with under 10 seconds on the shot clock, you can't just get stopped and pass it to someone with 2 seconds left.  You make the move you have to get the shot off or get it to someone who is open for a shot.

I agree and the coaches do as well, but I think this is an easy fix and you have to give him some slack in summer league.  He's a smart player and doesn't want to just be jacking up shots.

[bleedGREENdon]

I can see KO averaging 20 ppg one of his seasons if we keep working on him and treat him like a superior scorer he can be. It took Dirk 6 years to get to 26ppg, i can see Kelly im 4 years with hard work getting to those numbers

[Tr1boy]

nice turn around j by olynyk.

Its weird that at times you think he will score the easy one and it doesn't go in. And the difficult ones always seem to go in.

[blackberry33]

Another winner picked by Ainge.

[LooseCannon]

I can see Olynyk ending up better than Andrea Bargnani in scoring, offensive efficiency, defense, and rebounding, but then I can see him being worse in all those categories.