Jeff Green 2013-2014 predictions (Merged)

[RJ87]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

Playing alongside 2 great scorers should've helped his assists numbers, so I'm not sure that's the best example to prove your point.

Even in the playoffs last year, he averaged 43 minutes through six games. How many assists? A whopping 2.3.

[rondoallaturca]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

Green does not have the playmaking ability to average 3-4 assists, period, unless he's force fed a point forward role which would be counterproductive to the development of the team.

[GreenEnvy]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

Playing alongside 2 great scorers should've helped his assists numbers, so I'm not sure that's the best example to prove your point.

Even in the playoffs last year, he averaged 43 minutes through six games. How many assists? A whopping 2.3.

That's like saying if you played alongside Kobe or Iverson your APG should go up.

Nobody on our team could score this year, plain and simple.

[KG Living Legend]

Call me crazy (I'm sure you all will) but I predict he will average somewhere between 20/5/2 and 24/7/3

Last year the only chance we got to really see Jeff's potentially was late in the season when he was moved in to the starting line-up. 

During that time he averaged about 20/6/3 playing as the second (maybe even third) offensive option, and with no PG.

 TP for your post...

To me it really looked like he still felt that it was Pierce and KG's team, and out of respect for them (to show them it was still their team) he seemed to defer to them a lot.  He would absolutely dominate for a quarter or two, then he'd step back in the shadows and defer to those guys, almost as if he was afraid to look like a ball hog.

This is why I very strongly believed that trading Pierce out was critical to Jeff's development.  Towards the end of the season he seemed to really gain confidence and aggression, but he still had moments where he'd step back so that Pierce could have the spotlight.

To me the telling thing last season wasn't he numbers he averaged as a starter (the 20+ PPG).  To me it was the efficiency at which he put up those numbers. When he was locked in and determined to score, opposing teams could not stop him  As a starter he was averaging 20 PPG on something like 55% FG and 50% 3PT despite the fact that he had no PG to set him up, and most of those points were off isolations and simply catch-shoot opportunities.  If he took 10 more FG attempts per game (which he would have with Pierce and KG not there) his efficiency would have come back down to earth, but he would have likely averaged closer to 25 PPG.

This year with Pierce and KG gone (and Rondo recovering) this will be Jeff's team from the start.  Unless Danny brings in a big name free agent (like Josh Smith) everything will go through Green.  He will likely get double the touches he got last season, and he no longer needs to hide in the shadow behind his elder teammates. 

I think he is going to have an absolute monster year and see a similar type of explosion that we saw from Harden when he moved from OKC to Houston.  Despite coming off the bench in OKC Harden always played starters minutes, and he averaged around 16 PPG there as the third option on offense.  Once he moved to Houston as a primary scoring option (and with modestly increased minutes) his scoring jumped by about 10 PPG up to 26 PPG. I'm not going to say Jeff will average 26, but I think around 24 is a realistic expectation.

There are a lot of non-believes for sure, but I think his development last season from both a basketball perspective and a mental perspective (he became a LOT more passionate and aggressive as the season went on) combined with his increased role will see him make a massive jump.  In only a 20-something game span last season as a started he scored 30+ pints at least 3 times.  That tells you instantly that this guy, when in the right mode, can be an elite level scorer in the NBA.

The late return of Rondo will I think only help his case.  Initially the entire offense will likely go through Green, and that will leave him no choice but to be aggressive and to step up as a leader.  Once Rondo returns we will have two guys who have proven they can be leaders and take over a game, and two potential all-stars. 

Honestly as much as everybody talks about Rondo, I think Green is our wildcard this upcoming season.  As he goes, so will the Celtics.  Bradley will play the same elite defence he always has, Sully will battle for boards, defend the post and clean up mess, Rondo will do a lot of everything...but we already know who those guys are.  Jeff Green meeting his potential is what will determine whether this team makes the playoffs or stinks like a rotten egg.

[Rondohara]

37  MPG
23.7 PPG
5.5 RPG
2.2 APG
0.9 BPG
0.7 STL PG
1.8 TOPG
43% FG
33% 3PT
81% FT

I think it will be something like this, if he is not injured and improve his physical, he was not 100% last season coming from heart surgery.

[D.o.s.]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

Playing alongside 2 great scorers should've helped his assists numbers, so I'm not sure that's the best example to prove your point.

Even in the playoffs last year, he averaged 43 minutes through six games. How many assists? A whopping 2.3.

That's like saying if you played alongside Kobe or Iverson your APG should go up.

Nobody on our team could score this year, plain and simple.

For what it's worth, AI was the primary ball handler on most of his teams--not exactly a point guard, but in his career he averaged 6.5 assists per game.

That's uh, significantly more than Kobe (4.5).

[crimson_stallion]

25 plus points is wildly optimistic and even 22 points is too.  For him to get to those marks without taking 18-20 shots a game, he has to be able to get to the free throw line 8 plus times a game or shoot 40 percent from three on a bunch of attempts per game.  He has never been able to do that.  For his skill set and efficiency level, I'd expect maybe 17-18 points on 14-15 shots/game.

One unknown is how he's going to handle being guarded by small forwards most of the time.  He hasn't faced that kind of defensive coverage since his rookie year when he played small forward and Durant played guard.  He was most successful last season when he was the small ball power forward taking slower bigs off the dribble almost exclusively to his right.  Small forwards are drastically different defensive beasts.

I don't see why.

Everybody judged Jeff Green's ability based on:

1. What he averaged in OKC (still developing, and a third scoring option)

2. What he averaged as bench player (and a third scoring option) for the Celtics

Neither of these options here is representative of the situation Jeff will be in next year. 

Just to put things into perspective, in his first three years with OKC James Harden averaged (per 36 minutes):

09-10
- 15.5 points
- 40% FG
- 38% 3PT
- 81% FT

10-11
- 16.4 points
- 43.6% FG
- 35% 3PT
- 84% FT

11-12
- 19.2 points
- 49% FG
- 39% 3PT
- 85% FT

With the exception of 11-12 those numbers are not far off what Green was averaging with OKC as a third option in his first several years, and even in 11-12 (Harden's best season in OKC) he still only averaged around 2 or 3 PP36 more than what Green has all that time. 

As soon as Harden went to the Rockets what happened to his scoring numbers per 36?

- 24.3 Points
- 44% FG
- 37% 3PT
- 85% FT

Once he moved from a third scoring option to a first scoring option his scoring numbers increase significantly (more touches) while his FG% reduced significantly (as he go more attention from defense).

Now Jeff never averaged 19 PP36 as a third option so again I don't necessarilly expect his scoring numbers would jump quite to the same level as Harden's did, but within 2-3 points of Harden's average is really not out of the realm of possibility. 

That would put Green at around 23 PPG with I think is very possible.

To me there are two key factors to consider.

1. Starter vs Reserve role
Jeff's numbers as a starter vs a reserve varied quite dramatically.  I don't believe this is a fluke, I think it has a lot to do with his style of play in that he prefers to let the game come to him rather than just force everything.  I think this type of 'patient' offense means he really needs the big starters minutes to put up big numbers.  He clearly played at a different level as a starter vs a reserve, so judging his production based on his reserve play isn't really realistic.

2. Playing behind other guys
To this day Jeff still has never been the #1 scoring option on a team.  He's always played behind either Durant and Westbrook, or Pierce and KG.  His numbers in OKC and his numbers as a reserve in Boston are all based on him being in #3 option.  Only once KG got hurt did Jeff start in his place and get upgraded to a #2 scoring option after Pierce, and the instant that happened he immediately showcased his ability to dominate the game offensively.  Even after KG returned Green remained more or less a #2 option from that point on, and throughout that stretch he averaged 20 PPG the entire way.

Next year who could possibly be a top scoring option ahead of Green?  Rondo? Sully?  Bass?  Lee?  No chance.  Green as a scorer is leagues ahead of anybody else on the roster right now, so he will be forced into a "#1 scorer" role from day one. For him to average 24 PPG all he needs to do is take five more shot attempts than he did as a starter last year and make two of them. 

I find it very hard to believe that he's not capable of that given how far he is above everybody else on the roster as a scorer.

IMHO after he began playing starters minutes Jeff Green was our best scorer, clearly more dominant than Pierce offensively over that stretch.  Pierce even during big games looked like he was struggling and forcing a lot of those shots, wheras Green always looked like when he DID score it was absoutely effortless.  He often went to the exact same move over and over, yet still teams could do nothing to stop it. I think it's all but certain he will improve further during the off season and come back better again.

I think the 19 PPG some people are mentioning is the absolute minimum we will see Green average this season.  If his average falls significantly below that I will be very, very surprised.

[crimson_stallion]

Also I don't agree that the only reason he scored 20 in the playoffs was because he averaged 43 MPG. He was still a second scoring option after Pierce regardless of his minutes, and if you gave Courtney Lee 43 minutes I seriously doubt he'd have some how found a way to score 20 points a night.

He was down around 38 MPG when he was starting in the regular season and he was averaging 20 over that stretch as well.  Again, that was as a second scoring option.

I think this season with an upgraded role it's unlikely he scores much less than 20 PPG.

[vinnie]

17 ppg, 5 rpg, 2-3 apg

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

30ppg 0rb 4to. I'll see myself out

[mmmmm]

Rudy Gay lite.

For all the people expecting him to turn into a star this year, sorry.

By almost every measurable stat Jeff Green is better than Rudy Gay. Not by a mile or anything but definitely better. Take salary into account and it isn't even close.

I don't see how salary factors into their stats next year. Green is a better scorer, but that's about it.

Don't have the numbers, but pretty sure Synergy rates Green as a significantly better defender as well.

[rondoallaturca]

Rudy Gay lite.

For all the people expecting him to turn into a star this year, sorry.

By almost every measurable stat Jeff Green is better than Rudy Gay. Not by a mile or anything but definitely better. Take salary into account and it isn't even close.

I don't see how salary factors into their stats next year. Green is a better scorer, but that's about it.

Don't have the numbers, but pretty sure Synergy rates Green as a significantly better defender as well.

Touche. Wouldn't be surprised at all. Green struggled early in the season but he made huge strides throughout and did a great job on high profile guys like Melo to end the season.

But again, this thread talked about Jeff Green's stats, and that's the only thing I meant by bringing up Rudy Gay's name. Inefficient shooter, 1/1/1 potential, decent rebounder for his size, and about 2 assists.

[GreenEnvy]

25 plus points is wildly optimistic and even 22 points is too.  For him to get to those marks without taking 18-20 shots a game, he has to be able to get to the free throw line 8 plus times a game or shoot 40 percent from three on a bunch of attempts per game.  He has never been able to do that.  For his skill set and efficiency level, I'd expect maybe 17-18 points on 14-15 shots/game.

One unknown is how he's going to handle being guarded by small forwards most of the time.  He hasn't faced that kind of defensive coverage since his rookie year when he played small forward and Durant played guard.  He was most successful last season when he was the small ball power forward taking slower bigs off the dribble almost exclusively to his right.  Small forwards are drastically different defensive beasts.

Why can't he take 20 shots a game?

Somebody has to take 'em, and there don't seem to be many willing shooters on the team without Pierce and KG (who also moved the ball more than he should have).

I can see him also taking plenty of threes playing alongside Rondo.

If he takes just 18 shots a night, shoots 45%... That's 16.2ppg. Maybe of those he takes 4 threes a game, making 1.5 per game (37.5%)... That's now 17.7ppg. Let's say he averages 4 FTA/g, and makes 75% of those, that puts him at nearly 21ppg.

Which of those numbers seem that unlikely?

[mmmmm]

First off, I am a huge Jeff Green fan.  'Check my post history.  I've been following him since his Georgetown days.

And I think he is going to be very, very important player for the Celtics going forward.  I think he still has a lot of untapped potential - in all facets of the game.

That said, I see no way he averages more than 18 ppg this coming season.  And that might be hard.

The reason I say that is that Brad Stevens is probably going to bring a coaching philosophy that will amplify the Transition-D-First, Slow-Pace mindset that we've seen in recent years as if it is on steroids.   I will not be surprised to see the Celtics ranked at the very bottom of Pace rankings - the fewest average possessions per game.

So, while I expect Green to continue to be the extremely efficient scorer that he's shown he's capable of this last Spring, and to also assume the mantel as our team's #1 scoring option, I just don't think our team as a whole will be generating a ton of counting stats.

Mark me down for about 18 ppg, 4 assists, 5 rebounds.

[kgainez]

First off, I am a huge Jeff Green fan.  'Check my post history.  I've been following him since his Georgetown days.

And I think he is going to be very, very important player for the Celtics going forward.  I think he still has a lot of untapped potential - in all facets of the game.

That said, I see no way he averages more than 18 ppg this coming season.  And that might be hard.

The reason I say that is that Brad Stevens is probably going to bring a coaching philosophy that will amplify the Transition-D-First, Slow-Pace mindset that we've seen in recent years as if it is on steroids.   I will not be surprised to see the Celtics ranked at the very bottom of Pace rankings - the fewest average possessions per game.

So, while I expect Green to continue to be the extremely efficient scorer that he's shown he's capable of this last Spring, and to also assume the mantel as our team's #1 scoring option, I just don't think our team as a whole will be generating a ton of counting stats.

Mark me down for about 18 ppg, 4 assists, 5 rebounds.

REALLY?

I see Brad as the guy who will choose a coaching philosophy to get the most out his players. I think a fast pace suits most everyone who's on the team and will be on the team. That's surprising! Will see.