Jeff Green 2013-2014 predictions (Merged)

[RJ87]

Rudy Gay lite.

For all the people expecting him to turn into a star this year, sorry.

By almost every measurable stat Jeff Green is better than Rudy Gay. Not by a mile or anything but definitely better. Take salary into account and it isn't even close.

Rudy's a better rebounder, and I think he just has a more aggressive mentality to the game.

[sofutomygaha]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him hover around 19 ppg with 5 boards and 4 assists. He'll have a legitimate shot at most improved too, if his efficiency is high enough.

I was about to post pretty much exactly those stats, doubting whether to put 5 or 6 rebounds.

So, seconded.

YEAHHHHHHH!!!!

But wait, I had the 19/5 up first, so isn't that really ..umm thirded?

He's <gulp> our go-to scorer. I'm going to put him at 22 pts, 5 boards, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal in 35 minutes per game just based on usage.

Somehow, you've got to add up the contributions and get to ~90 points! Rondo, Bradley, and Green are all a lock to score at a career high rates, in my opinion.

[Celtics4ever]

I hope your right but I have my doubts on AB becoming a scorer.   I hope it happens but I have doubts.

[rondoallaturca]

Rudy Gay lite.

For all the people expecting him to turn into a star this year, sorry.

By almost every measurable stat Jeff Green is better than Rudy Gay. Not by a mile or anything but definitely better. Take salary into account and it isn't even close.

I don't see how salary factors into their stats next year. Green is a better scorer, but that's about it.

[Neurotic Guy]

Setting poor Jeffrey up for disappointment. 

I know he averaged 20 and 5 in the playoffs but let's not forget that was only 6 games.  He has the skills to score 20ppg but I worry about how he handles the ball in the lane. He is sometimes slow and predictable with the balls -- he gets figured out and then he loses confidence.

I hope for an efficient and consistent 17-18 ppg with improvement on the glass at 6rpg.  The other thing I'd love to see is growth in his passing skills and decision-making.  Hope to see overall 17.5/6/2.

[rondoallaturca]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

[Boris Badenov]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

[crimson_stallion]

Call me crazy (I'm sure you all will) but I predict he will average somewhere between 20/5/2 and 24/7/3

Last year the only chance we got to really see Jeff's potentially was late in the season when he was moved in to the starting line-up. 

During that time he averaged about 20/6/3 playing as the second (maybe even third) offensive option, and with no PG.

To me it really looked like he still felt that it was Pierce and KG's team, and out of respect for them (to show them it was still their team) he seemed to defer to them a lot.  He would absolutely dominate for a quarter or two, then he'd step back in the shadows and defer to those guys, almost as if he was afraid to look like a ball hog.

This is why I very strongly believed that trading Pierce out was critical to Jeff's development.  Towards the end of the season he seemed to really gain confidence and aggression, but he still had moments where he'd step back so that Pierce could have the spotlight.

To me the telling thing last season wasn't he numbers he averaged as a starter (the 20+ PPG).  To me it was the efficiency at which he put up those numbers. When he was locked in and determined to score, opposing teams could not stop him  As a starter he was averaging 20 PPG on something like 55% FG and 50% 3PT despite the fact that he had no PG to set him up, and most of those points were off isolations and simply catch-shoot opportunities.  If he took 10 more FG attempts per game (which he would have with Pierce and KG not there) his efficiency would have come back down to earth, but he would have likely averaged closer to 25 PPG.

This year with Pierce and KG gone (and Rondo recovering) this will be Jeff's team from the start.  Unless Danny brings in a big name free agent (like Josh Smith) everything will go through Green.  He will likely get double the touches he got last season, and he no longer needs to hide in the shadow behind his elder teammates. 

I think he is going to have an absolute monster year and see a similar type of explosion that we saw from Harden when he moved from OKC to Houston.  Despite coming off the bench in OKC Harden always played starters minutes, and he averaged around 16 PPG there as the third option on offense.  Once he moved to Houston as a primary scoring option (and with modestly increased minutes) his scoring jumped by about 10 PPG up to 26 PPG. I'm not going to say Jeff will average 26, but I think around 24 is a realistic expectation.

There are a lot of non-believes for sure, but I think his development last season from both a basketball perspective and a mental perspective (he became a LOT more passionate and aggressive as the season went on) combined with his increased role will see him make a massive jump.  In only a 20-something game span last season as a started he scored 30+ pints at least 3 times.  That tells you instantly that this guy, when in the right mode, can be an elite level scorer in the NBA.

The late return of Rondo will I think only help his case.  Initially the entire offense will likely go through Green, and that will leave him no choice but to be aggressive and to step up as a leader.  Once Rondo returns we will have two guys who have proven they can be leaders and take over a game, and two potential all-stars. 

Honestly as much as everybody talks about Rondo, I think Green is our wildcard this upcoming season.  As he goes, so will the Celtics.  Bradley will play the same elite defence he always has, Sully will battle for boards, defend the post and clean up mess, Rondo will do a lot of everything...but we already know who those guys are.  Jeff Green meeting his potential is what will determine whether this team makes the playoffs or stinks like a rotten egg.

[kgainez]

I hate the JG comparison for Paul Pierce.

And I will say this --Paul is mildly overrated and his stats are skewed
He's always been the #1 on a good team and on a bad team. In his 6th season, the Celtics went 36-46. Paul took 1000 more shots than anyone else on the team and thusly made 1000 more points, shooting a whopping 40% from the field and 29% from the 3.
I think comparing him to Paul is unfair. Jeff will never be the #1 guy...he doesn't desire to be that guy, and he shouldn't have to be.

In his championship year, Paul averaged 19/5/4.  Not mind blowing stats guys.

This is a trash season. Jeff can average 30 pts a game if he wanted to lol. I just don't think Jeff has much of the personality that Paul has, which is 'scorer/chucker/force it.'

[Fan from VT]

For all those saying over 20 ppg: while possible, keep in mind that these are ALL the players over 20 ppg last season:

Carmelo Anthony
Kevin Durant
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James,
James Harden,
Russell Westbrook,
Stephen Curry
Dwyane Wade
LaMarcus Aldridge,

So, will Jeff Green be one of the top 10 scorers in teh NBA? that's the question.

[bfrombleacher]

Stats I'm more interested in than PPG:

Rebounding per game
Defensive Efficiency
FG%
eFG%
Offensive Efficiency
Blocks per game
Post up percentage
Maybe Assisted field goal attempts and Assited field goal percentage

1. The way he scored efficiently last season was by taking smart shots. His skill set is limited somewhat. I'd be happy if he picks his spots and ends with 15-17 PPG while being extremely efficient and continue pursuing that avenue rather than develop terrible habits on a rebuilding team that he'll have to unlearn.

2. He's shown glimpses of being the 6'9 and 3/4 oversized small forward that he's supposed to be last season wrecking havoc inside and being big.

Seeing him block shots, playing inside, rebounding would make me super happy. More so than seeing him get 19, 20 PPG shooting jump shots.

3. His defense. I can't stop talking about it because it was that awesome. Stopping LeBron. Stopping Melo even. I don't care if he remains a slightly above average team defender. I'd be happy if his defense only improved slightly and therefore is continuing to be awesome.

4. He was efficient while isolated I recall. The number of possessions he had assisted by Rondo were very few I think. I actually expect this to increase significantly as the dust settles and a new system is implemented.

Very excited for the new offense, by the way.

[RJ87]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

Agreed about the assists. Playmaking isn't his strong suit, and I don't think he's going to develop that over a summer. In my prediction I said he'd average 1.5 apg - 2 apg max.

[GreenEnvy]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

[Galeto]

25 plus points is wildly optimistic and even 22 points is too.  For him to get to those marks without taking 18-20 shots a game, he has to be able to get to the free throw line 8 plus times a game or shoot 40 percent from three on a bunch of attempts per game.  He has never been able to do that.  For his skill set and efficiency level, I'd expect maybe 17-18 points on 14-15 shots/game.

One unknown is how he's going to handle being guarded by small forwards most of the time.  He hasn't faced that kind of defensive coverage since his rookie year when he played small forward and Durant played guard.  He was most successful last season when he was the small ball power forward taking slower bigs off the dribble almost exclusively to his right.  Small forwards are drastically different defensive beasts.

[Boris Badenov]

Also, I'd like people to keep in mind that as a full time starter in OKC, he constantly hovered around 15/6/1.5 with just over a three per game. And that was with playing a whopping 37 minutes per game. I understand his game has developed since then, and he's no longer playing alongside both Westbrook and Durant, but some people are wildly overestimating him.

Seconded. Even his supposed breakout numbers in the playoff were more about playing 43 mpg than much else.

The really confusing things to me are the predictions about him getting 4-5 assist per game. His career high is 2.0 in 37 mpg....

O I see, he didn't average many assists as a 20-22 year old playing alongside DURANT AND WESTBROOK (who take a combined 40+ shots per game), so he can't possibly average 3-4 assists.

I said "career high." If you're going to be snarky you may as well indicate a basic understanding of what I wrote.

But just to clarify in case you do not understand what "career high" means: he also didn't average any more assists per game last year when he was 26, and playing without Westbrook and Durant.