Yeah, I agree with Yoki.
Danny is in a much better spot now then he was last time. With 5 first round draft picks and the players he has drafted certainly trump West, Gomes, Jefferson, and #5.
I'm certainly not saying we MUST build around Rondo and I would certainly move him in the right deal, but when people say we absolutely can't, I just don't buy it.
Those future draft picks might be huge. We aren't going to really know until 2018. Until then, those picks can easily end up being late 1st rounders.
I think some people are retroactively underestimating how huge of an asset Al Jefferson was. WE know now that he never made an all-star team, but in 2007 he was 22 years old and coming off a season averaging 16 points, 11 boards and 1.5 blocks in 33 minutes. Worst-case scenario he was a lock to be a 20 and 10 guy. Best-case scenario, you were looking at someone that fans reasonably believed would battle Dwight Howard (and Greg Oden) as the three best bigs in the league.
There's nothin on this team even close to that. We have Sullinger... who may or may not be a starter long-term. His value is more Ryan Gomes than Al Jefferson.
That said, our unprotected 2014 pick is easily the most valuable asset on this team. It's likely top 8... which in this draft is better than the 2007 #5 pick.
I think some people are retroactively _over_ estimating how huge of an asset Al Jefferson was.
At this same relative point, the beginning of the 2006-2007 season, Jefferson hadn't really done all that much. He had played almost exclusive off the bench his both his first two seasons to that point, barely totaling a hair over 1000 minutes in each. He average 6.7 pts and 4.4 reg in just under 15 minutes his first year and 7.9 points and 5.1 reg in 18 mpg his second year. And the latter was on a 33-win team.
That's not knocking the socks off anyone.
Just for comparison, Sully in his rookie season manage 'only' 892 minutes ... but in just over half a season. He would have blown past the 1000 minute mark if not for the back injury (at the rate he was getting minutes at the end, he would have passed that in just 4-5 more games). Sully scored slightly less than Al's rookie year, at just 6.0 points per game, but grabbed 5.8 TRB per game in 19.8 mpg. He also won the starting position on a team that was a playoff team fighting for a seed.
When you look at rates and efficiencies, Sullinger scored a slightly lesser rate than Al did but has posted slightly better rebounding numbers and is a much better defensive player already. Al got much higher USG% rate while he was on the floor (21%) compared to Sully never getting hardly any plays called for him (14%) so it's not really much of a surprise that Al would have posted higher scoring rates. That also leads to Al having a higher PER (16.6 his rookie year compared to 13.5 for Sully). But Sully gets the edge in so many other categories and comes out ahead in WS/48 at .146 vs .123 for Al.
Basically, Big Al got to play a lot of minutes (33.6 mpg) his 3rd year on a terrible team and with no Pierce and no Tony Allen, got very high utilization, which really showcased his apparent value.
But he hadn't even done _that_, yet, at this point at the start of the 2006-07 season.
Al was a 15th pick.
If not for his back issues, there is no doubt in my mind that Sullinger would have been a top 10 draft pick. He was extremely highly rated for two different draft years, ranging in mocks between #2 and #7. He never fell out of that range until the back issues became a thing right before the 2012 draft. And based on the rates and efficiencies at which Sully performed at last year he validated those high rankings by being right up there with Davis and Drummon as the three clear-and-away best 3 big men in that rookie class.
In my opinion, he was already clearly a better overall basketball player last January than Big Al has become even
now.
Certainly, Sully's current value is similarly suppressed by concerns about how well he will come back from the surgery. But if he does, there is no reason to think that he won't prove to be at least as valuable as Al proved to be _after_ the 2006-07 season.