We have missed on two of our last three first round picks.

[Celtics18]

Going into the 2011 draft, JaJuan Johnson was the guy that I wanted Danny to draft.   I saw visions of a future that included him running the floor with Rondo, finishing at the rim, and being an effective pick and roll player on both sides of the court.  His lack of strength was clearly a concern, but I thought that if we could start to build an up-tempo team, that weakness could be masked to some degree. 

Strength is clearly a plus defensively for an NBA big, but so are length, quickness, and athleticism.  Unfortunately, he hasn't worked out so far, and I realize there's the possibility that he never makes it, but I'm going to keep my hopes up for him for a little while longer. 

[Boris Badenov]

Melo has been a total stiff who can not stay out the way of a door frame. We were wiped out by injuries and dopes running off to the Balkans and Melo still could not get time in on the team. Rather than bring him up after Jason Collins got traded we brought in guys who just left the Chinese league.

Then JaJuan Johnson. If you can name the three D-League teams he has bounced around this year without looking it up I will send you a prize. I think that sums that up nicely.

Thank goodness we did get Sullinger.

Danny has not been drafting like he used to. Has me worried.

You mean like way, way back in 2010?

Bradley would likely be a top 10 pick if we re-did that one.

And while JJJ looks bad, in context that draft was bad overall. He might still go somewhere in the 2nd round if the draft were held again today, maybe pretty early. There just were not that many players taken after him who are better - and there were some taken before him who look worse.

Moore, meanwhile, looks like a very good pick for that spot given the quality of the draft. That he's even getting NBA minutes impresses me.

Regarding Melo and Sully, it's just too early to tell. I suspect that opinions of Bradley have changed dramatically since the end of his rookie year. In another year it's entirely possible that we all view Melo as the better pick out of the two.

The Giddens pick is the only one that grades as awful to me, at this point.

[Tr1boy]

JJJ still has a chance to be a very good player. He just needs to bust his azz off this summer and add 10 pounds of muscle. He has the jump, wingspan and plays under control. Worse case Hakim Warrick. I wouldn't be at all shocked if danny brings him back for next year

Melo has no prayer. The guy is a Volleyball player, playing basketball. One of the worse hands i've seen. No wonder he can't grab a rebound great nor difficult passes down low.

If danny can trade him for a 2nd round pick in this years draft, he will escape a bad pick

[Snakehead]

Melo has no prayer. The guy is a Volleyball player, playing basketball. One of the worse hands i've seen. No wonder he can't grab a rebound great nor difficult passes down low.

If danny can trade him for a 2nd round pick in this years draft, he will escape a bad pick

What are you even basing this on?  He has hardly played for the Celtics and has done quite well in Maine.

[Tr1boy]

Melo has no prayer. The guy is a Volleyball player, playing basketball. One of the worse hands i've seen. No wonder he can't grab a rebound great nor difficult passes down low.

If danny can trade him for a 2nd round pick in this years draft, he will escape a bad pick

What are you even basing this on?  He has hardly played for the Celtics and has done quite well in Maine.

how has he played well in maine?? grabing 5 and less rebounds a game?? 

 

[indeedproceed]

Worse case Hakim Warrick.

I think you're either selling Warrick short, or Johnson high. There isn't really anything that supports JJJ's worst case being a 7 year NBA vet who managed to start over 100 games and average over 20 minutes a night. Warrick's got a pretty defined niche he carved out.

JJJ's worst case is a lot worse than Hakim Warrick, IMO.

[Snakehead]

Melo has no prayer. The guy is a Volleyball player, playing basketball. One of the worse hands i've seen. No wonder he can't grab a rebound great nor difficult passes down low.

If danny can trade him for a 2nd round pick in this years draft, he will escape a bad pick

What are you even basing this on?  He has hardly played for the Celtics and has done quite well in Maine.

how has he played well in maine?? grabing 5 and less rebounds a game?? 

 

As of March 30th:

Melo is averaging 26.5 minutes, 9.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in 31 NBA D-League games this season.

I mean, I'd love higher rebounding numbers, but those are pretty good numbers.  They are basically the same as Stiemsma's in the D-league when he won D-League DPOY.

[StartOrien]

Would like to thank the OP for giving me a forum to pat myself on the back for thinking Evan Fournier could become a nice rotation player.

[indeedproceed]

Would like to thank the OP for giving me a forum to pat myself on the back for thinking Evan Fournier could become a nice rotation player.

<---------This guy did it first.

check this one out from hoopsworld.....

http://www.hoopsworld.com/yannis-full-2012-mock-draft-version-5-0

I like that one.  Taylor and Nicholson would both be solid picks at that point in the draft.  I am not blown away with either of them, but they aren't red flag guys either.

Not me. Swing for the fences Danny.

Swinging for the fences is fine.  But not with incredibly flawed prospects like Melo and White.

Those guys are not talented enough to even be high reward picks IMO. 

Now Mo Harkless...that would be a nice swing for the fence.

I want Evan Fournier and some 6'12 kid from French Guiana who has been playing in a low-key french professional league since he was 12 years old. #boldmoves

[Moranis]

Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has some ok players (and the 2 best are hurt all the time in Bradley and Sullinger), but hasn't hit a home run since Davis in the 2nd round of 2007 or Rondo in the 1st round of 2006 (powe was in the 2nd round in 2006 as well).  Even 2005 with Gerald Green wasn't a great pick in retrospect, but that one was a virtual no brainer at the time so I can't fault him there (and Gomes and even Orien Greene were pretty solid 2nd rounders).  2004 was a monster draft with Jefferson, Allen, and West and even the 2nd round pick Reed played 136 games in the league (which isn't bad for a mid 2nd rounder). 

I mean seriously since Davis in 2007 Ainge hasn't hit a homerun. Bradley looks like a good pick, but he has missed a ton of games due to injury, which is also the same for Sullinger so you can't really call them home runs, though I think they are probably solid doubles.  Erden was a solid pick with the last pick of the 2008 draft, but considering how quickly we shipped him off he was also far from a home run. 

And Ainge also traded away a lottery pick in 2006 for crap i.e. Telfair.  Wasted pick.  Obviously trading the lottery pick in 2007 for Ray Allen worked out quite well especially since that lottery pick is currently on Boston.


Ainge brought Boston a title with the Allen and KG trades, which were both precipitated by the moves he had made when he first took over, but quite frankly he hasn't been a very good GM since the summer of 2007.  He has no great draft picks, no great trades or free agent signings, and it doesn't appear the team is realistically close to a title nor will be any time in the next 5 years.  Ainge is getting awfully close to Joe Dumars territory i.e. the savior that turned into a goat very quickly.

Please offer alternatives to the picks made or examples of GMs that have done better picking around the same spots if you are going to be this critical.

I couldn't disagree more.  Avery and Sullinger were both great draft picks.  Late 1st picks almost never work out.

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

Boston did not have its 2009 pick which went to Minnesota who selected Wayne Ellington in that spot.  A pretty good selection, but of course I'd rather have Garnett which is why Minnesota had that pick to begin with.

In 2010, Boston took Avery Bradley at 19.  A solid pick, but with the massive amount of games he has missed and his size limitations, he probably isn't anything more than the first guard off the bench type player on a title team.  Greivis Vasquez appears to be a far better player and while a PG is actually much bigger than Bradley.  He went 9 picks after Bradley.  Some other players have better stats and more games, but Bradley is probably better.  The red flag I put with Bradley is health.  He seems to be fairly healthy at the moment, if he can keep it then this could turn into a very good pick and maybe even a home run, but the health is a big concern.

In 2011, Boston moved back a few spots to pick up a 2nd in 2014 and had the Nets take JaJuan Johnson at 27 while giving up Marson Brooks at 25.  Brooks has been a significantly better player.  Norris Cole went 28th, again a significantly better player.  Jimmy Butler also went in the first round and Chandler Parsons went top ten in the second round.  Doc Rivers loved Chandler Parsons and would have been a significantly better selection than Johnson.

It is pretty early to rate the 2012 draft, but as I said with Bradley, Sullinger looks like a good pick, but injuries could easily stop it from being a great pick.  Melo looks like a bust.  He hasn't shown much improvement and I would much rather have Festus Ezeli who is also a project, but is at least able to play in the NBA while he develops.  Same thing with Moultrie and Jones III.  Jeff Taylor, Jae Crowder, and Draymond Green have all been respectable players as 2nd round draft pick rookies.


Boston has also mismanaged its free agency and MLE signings.  In the summer of 2008 there is no way the team should have let Posey walk over 1 year, especially since as it turns out Boston was still very much a contender that year.  Now granted I'm not sure Boston could have financially signed both Posey and Rasheed, but I would have liked to have seen them keep Posey (especially since Sheed was gone the next summer). 

Similarly in 2010 there is no way Boston should have let Tony Allen leave, especially given the pretty darn small contract he got from Memphis and giving JO the MLE for 2 years was a disaster.

Wilcox, Daniels, and Pietrus were nice signings, but nothing special and Wilcox especially wasn't ever going to be healthy given his history and his contract was the biggest of those three.  I would have liked to have seen at least some of that money used a bit better, especially given the dollars and length given to Wilcox.  He also swapped Davis for Bass.  At the time I didn't mind the trade even though Davis was better than Bass (and still is) because Bass was expiring, but then we re-signed Bass for basically the dollars Davis is getting, which is just awful. 

2012 was a horrible summer in my mind.  I have gone into that in great detail on this site many times and don't want to re-hash it now, but essentially I thought Ainge totally blew last summer.  he locked up a lot of mediocre players to long big money contracts and destroyed all cap flexibility on a team that is not a contender.  Just a horrid summer in my mind.

[StartOrien]

Would like to thank the OP for giving me a forum to pat myself on the back for thinking Evan Fournier could become a nice rotation player.

<---------This guy did it first.

check this one out from hoopsworld.....

http://www.hoopsworld.com/yannis-full-2012-mock-draft-version-5-0

I like that one.  Taylor and Nicholson would both be solid picks at that point in the draft.  I am not blown away with either of them, but they aren't red flag guys either.

Not me. Swing for the fences Danny.

Swinging for the fences is fine.  But not with incredibly flawed prospects like Melo and White.

Those guys are not talented enough to even be high reward picks IMO. 

Now Mo Harkless...that would be a nice swing for the fence.

I want Evan Fournier and some 6'12 kid from French Guiana who has been playing in a low-key french professional league since he was 12 years old. #boldmoves

I started to search when I started my Fournier talk, but then realized it was very unlikely I did my usual 1.5 of watching youtube mixes of prospets by that point. Touchee.

-Start Orien, guy who wanted Kenneth Faried the year before.

[Snakehead]

Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has some ok players (and the 2 best are hurt all the time in Bradley and Sullinger), but hasn't hit a home run since Davis in the 2nd round of 2007 or Rondo in the 1st round of 2006 (powe was in the 2nd round in 2006 as well).  Even 2005 with Gerald Green wasn't a great pick in retrospect, but that one was a virtual no brainer at the time so I can't fault him there (and Gomes and even Orien Greene were pretty solid 2nd rounders).  2004 was a monster draft with Jefferson, Allen, and West and even the 2nd round pick Reed played 136 games in the league (which isn't bad for a mid 2nd rounder). 

I mean seriously since Davis in 2007 Ainge hasn't hit a homerun. Bradley looks like a good pick, but he has missed a ton of games due to injury, which is also the same for Sullinger so you can't really call them home runs, though I think they are probably solid doubles.  Erden was a solid pick with the last pick of the 2008 draft, but considering how quickly we shipped him off he was also far from a home run. 

And Ainge also traded away a lottery pick in 2006 for crap i.e. Telfair.  Wasted pick.  Obviously trading the lottery pick in 2007 for Ray Allen worked out quite well especially since that lottery pick is currently on Boston.


Ainge brought Boston a title with the Allen and KG trades, which were both precipitated by the moves he had made when he first took over, but quite frankly he hasn't been a very good GM since the summer of 2007.  He has no great draft picks, no great trades or free agent signings, and it doesn't appear the team is realistically close to a title nor will be any time in the next 5 years.  Ainge is getting awfully close to Joe Dumars territory i.e. the savior that turned into a goat very quickly.

Please offer alternatives to the picks made or examples of GMs that have done better picking around the same spots if you are going to be this critical.

I couldn't disagree more.  Avery and Sullinger were both great draft picks.  Late 1st picks almost never work out.

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

Boston did not have its 2009 pick which went to Minnesota who selected Wayne Ellington in that spot.  A pretty good selection, but of course I'd rather have Garnett which is why Minnesota had that pick to begin with.

In 2010, Boston took Avery Bradley at 19.  A solid pick, but with the massive amount of games he has missed and his size limitations, he probably isn't anything more than the first guard off the bench type player on a title team.  Greivis Vasquez appears to be a far better player and while a PG is actually much bigger than Bradley.  He went 9 picks after Bradley.  Some other players have better stats and more games, but Bradley is probably better.  The red flag I put with Bradley is health.  He seems to be fairly healthy at the moment, if he can keep it then this could turn into a very good pick and maybe even a home run, but the health is a big concern.

In 2011, Boston moved back a few spots to pick up a 2nd in 2014 and had the Nets take JaJuan Johnson at 27 while giving up Marson Brooks at 25.  Brooks has been a significantly better player.  Norris Cole went 28th, again a significantly better player.  Jimmy Butler also went in the first round and Chandler Parsons went top ten in the second round.  Doc Rivers loved Chandler Parsons and would have been a significantly better selection than Johnson.

It is pretty early to rate the 2012 draft, but as I said with Bradley, Sullinger looks like a good pick, but injuries could easily stop it from being a great pick.  Melo looks like a bust.  He hasn't shown much improvement and I would much rather have Festus Ezeli who is also a project, but is at least able to play in the NBA while he develops.  Same thing with Moultrie and Jones III.  Jeff Taylor, Jae Crowder, and Draymond Green have all been respectable players as 2nd round draft pick rookies.

Not even discussing FA (not the point of the thread)

Anyways, yes I didn't want Giddens, otherwise, I can see we will never agree on these picks.

You think Avery is just a "solid" pick.  He would have been top 10 at least if you re-draft and he's the best guard defender in the league.  I think Vazquez is pretty good, but I'll take Avery over him every time.

Brooks has contributed more than JJJ, but he is probably the most overrated prospect in the league I've seen (by fans).  He is an extremely inefficient scorer.  I have not been impressed by him.  The guy is shooting .283 from three, that's hideous for a scoring guard.

And the 2012 draft is too early to judge, but doctors and experts have said Sullinger should be fine.  Based on his play this year alone, he was the steal of the draft (again, on a redraft he goes at least top 10 if he heals).  And Melo is not a bust, saying so and then touting Ezeli? What?  It shows you want to say things are a failure before they are.  Melo is basically having the same season Stiemsma had when he won D-League DPOY.  I'm optimistic.

The Giddens pick: totally legit.  Otherwise you have little to offer for actual improvement and cherry picked a couple players that were not thought widely to be quality.  You can say a lot of people should have taken Parsons obviously, he went in the 2nd.

[Boris Badenov]

Just as a general observation about some of the arguments in this thread:

I think it's unreasonable to evaluate any GM's drafting ability by looking at the one or two best players who were drafted later. You can always do this in hindsight.

But of course, with hindsight in most case those players wouldn't have been available. So, Danny missed out on Chandler Parson - but so did everyone else. That fact doesn't tell you a whole lot about Danny's abilities.

I think a fairer way to do it is by asking whether, in a re-draft, the GM's picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether the GM usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

[Atzar]

Just as a general observation about some of the arguments in this thread:

I think it's unreasonable to evaluate any GM's drafting ability by looking at the one or two best players who were drafted later. You can always do this in hindsight.

But of course, with hindsight in most case those players wouldn't have been available. So, Danny missed out on Chandler Parson - but so did everyone else. That fact doesn't tell you a whole lot about Danny's abilities.

I think a fairer way to do it is by asking whether, in a re-draft, the GM's picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether the GM usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

Great post.  TP.

[slamtheking]

Just as a general observation about some of the arguments in this thread:

I think it's unreasonable to evaluate any GM's drafting ability by looking at the one or two best players who were drafted later. You can always do this in hindsight.

But of course, with hindsight in most case those players wouldn't have been available. So, Danny missed out on Chandler Parson - but so did everyone else. That fact doesn't tell you a whole lot about Danny's abilities.

I think a fairer way to do it is by asking whether, in a re-draft, the GM's picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether the GM usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

TP - excellent post.  saves me the effort of rebutting Moranis' weak argument.