We have missed on two of our last three first round picks.

[rickyfan3.0...]

AGREE

Hated the Melo pick, but there wasn't much in that JJJJJJJJJohnson draft.

[sofutomygaha]

I'm surprised that the Sullinger pick is being universally accepted as a success. Isn't it too early to say? All we really know is that he was great in college and managed to be who he is for a few months in the pros before his back gave out.

We have no idea if his back is going to be a chronic condition. We also have no idea that, even if he fully recovers, he's going to transcend this argument about his athletic limitations.

Fab Melo, on the other hand, is not looking good. If you're not ready to slam the door on JJJ, then of course you're holding it open for Fab, too, but it's really, really not looking good. He's looking up to Patrick O'Bryant at this point.

[Moranis]

Just as a general observation about some of the arguments in this thread:

I think it's unreasonable to evaluate any GM's drafting ability by looking at the one or two best players who were drafted later. You can always do this in hindsight.

But of course, with hindsight in most case those players wouldn't have been available. So, Danny missed out on Chandler Parson - but so did everyone else. That fact doesn't tell you a whole lot about Danny's abilities.

I think a fairer way to do it is by asking whether, in a re-draft, the GM's picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether the GM usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

I don't think you can say that Allen and West would definitely go higher then where they were selected.  The 2004 draft was pretty deep.  I mean Kevin Martin was selected directly after them and Anderson Varejao wasn't that far behind either.  Udrih, Duhon, Ariza, and Vujacic also went after them and have had generally similar careers.  And not that many players ahead of them have been clearly worse, though the three players directly in front them all were Monia, Khryapa, Podkolzin.  Also worse in front of them Arajo, Luke Jackson, Kirk Snyder, and Robert Swift (though injuries played into him so in a re-draft a team still might like him better and hope they can keep him healthy).  In other words, West and Allen probably would have gone a bit higher, but certainly wouldn't have been way higher or even into the lottery so I have time putting them in the definitely category (Jefferson would have clearly moved way up and been in the top 6 with Dwight, Deng, Iguodala, Josh Smith, and Okafor)

[Boris Badenov]

Just as a general observation about some of the arguments in this thread:

I think it's unreasonable to evaluate any GM's drafting ability by looking at the one or two best players who were drafted later. You can always do this in hindsight.

But of course, with hindsight in most case those players wouldn't have been available. So, Danny missed out on Chandler Parson - but so did everyone else. That fact doesn't tell you a whole lot about Danny's abilities.

I think a fairer way to do it is by asking whether, in a re-draft, the GM's picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether the GM usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

I don't think you can say that Allen and West would definitely go higher then where they were selected.  The 2004 draft was pretty deep.  I mean Kevin Martin was selected directly after them and Anderson Varejao wasn't that far behind either.  Udrih, Duhon, Ariza, and Vujacic also went after them and have had generally similar careers.  And not that many players ahead of them have been clearly worse, though the three players directly in front them all were Monia, Khryapa, Podkolzin.  Also worse in front of them Arajo, Luke Jackson, Kirk Snyder, and Robert Swift (though injuries played into him so in a re-draft a team still might like him better and hope they can keep him healthy).  In other words, West and Allen probably would have gone a bit higher, but certainly wouldn't have been way higher or even into the lottery so I have time putting them in the definitely category (Jefferson would have clearly moved way up and been in the top 6 with Dwight, Deng, Iguodala, Josh Smith, and Okafor)

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

[sofutomygaha]

I'd also like everyone to stop hating on JR Giddens. Without him, i miei ragazzi from Basket Brescia wouldn't have a prayer to make a run in the Leveldue this year.

[BballTim]

Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has some ok players (and the 2 best are hurt all the time in Bradley and Sullinger), but hasn't hit a home run since Davis in the 2nd round of 2007 or Rondo in the 1st round of 2006 (powe was in the 2nd round in 2006 as well).  Even 2005 with Gerald Green wasn't a great pick in retrospect, but that one was a virtual no brainer at the time so I can't fault him there (and Gomes and even Orien Greene were pretty solid 2nd rounders).  2004 was a monster draft with Jefferson, Allen, and West and even the 2nd round pick Reed played 136 games in the league (which isn't bad for a mid 2nd rounder). 

I mean seriously since Davis in 2007 Ainge hasn't hit a homerun. Bradley looks like a good pick, but he has missed a ton of games due to injury, which is also the same for Sullinger so you can't really call them home runs, though I think they are probably solid doubles.  Erden was a solid pick with the last pick of the 2008 draft, but considering how quickly we shipped him off he was also far from a home run. 

And Ainge also traded away a lottery pick in 2006 for crap i.e. Telfair.  Wasted pick.  Obviously trading the lottery pick in 2007 for Ray Allen worked out quite well especially since that lottery pick is currently on Boston.


Ainge brought Boston a title with the Allen and KG trades, which were both precipitated by the moves he had made when he first took over, but quite frankly he hasn't been a very good GM since the summer of 2007.  He has no great draft picks, no great trades or free agent signings, and it doesn't appear the team is realistically close to a title nor will be any time in the next 5 years.  Ainge is getting awfully close to Joe Dumars territory i.e. the savior that turned into a goat very quickly.

Please offer alternatives to the picks made or examples of GMs that have done better picking around the same spots if you are going to be this critical.

I couldn't disagree more.  Avery and Sullinger were both great draft picks.  Late 1st picks almost never work out.

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

  I think that's a little selective on the memory. The name I recall hearing the most before the draft on this board was Chris Douglas-Roberts.

[indeedproceed]

I still don't understand why CDR can't stick in a 20mpg role in this league. Must be a total knucklehead.

[fairweatherfan]

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

  I think that's a little selective on the memory. The name I recall hearing the most before the draft on this board was Chris Douglas-Roberts.

I remember a lot of CDR, some Jordan, with a couple people mentioning Chalmers as a Rondo backup (or replacement, ha).  The CDR people seemed to be much higher on his potential, though, with some posters being incredulous that he had fallen so far.

It is fair to say that very few people wanted Giddens, though.

[Moranis]

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

  I think that's a little selective on the memory. The name I recall hearing the most before the draft on this board was Chris Douglas-Roberts.

I remember a lot of CDR, some Jordan, with a couple people mentioning Chalmers as a Rondo backup (or replacement, ha).  The CDR people seemed to be much higher on his potential, though, with some posters being incredulous that he had fallen so far.

It is fair to say that very few people wanted Giddens, though.

I recall it more Jordan with CDR a close second.  You know the size with potential vs the more ready to contribute player in CDR.  Either way, no one wanted Giddens.  It was just an awful pick at the time and certainly in hindsight.

[indeedproceed]

Starting in 2008.

Boston had the last pick in the 1st round in 2008.  The first pick in the 2nd round was Nikola Pekovic.  Mario Chalmers, Deandre Jordan, Omer Asik, and Luc Mbah a Moute all went in the first seven picks of the second round.  On draft day, a large number of this board wanted and expected the Celtics to take Deandre Jordan and most were very upset that Giddens was selected especially with Jordan still on the board. 

  I think that's a little selective on the memory. The name I recall hearing the most before the draft on this board was Chris Douglas-Roberts.

I remember a lot of CDR, some Jordan, with a couple people mentioning Chalmers as a Rondo backup (or replacement, ha).  The CDR people seemed to be much higher on his potential, though, with some posters being incredulous that he had fallen so far.

It is fair to say that very few people wanted Giddens, though.

I recall it more Jordan with CDR a close second.  You know the size with potential vs the more ready to contribute player in CDR.  Either way, no one wanted Giddens.  It was just an awful pick at the time and certainly in hindsight.

I recall it as the reason Jordan dropped was because his ceiling was so low. We already had Perkins, so I remember a lot of 'If we didn't have Perkins, we..", but not a lot of people actually wanted Jordan.

In any case, nobody wanted Asik, and he was the real prize. Good job, Bulls.

Wait for another year wehn they bring over Nikola Mirotic. We'll get jealous all over again.

[fairweatherfan]

BTW, here's the original 2008 draft thread (they're all stickied in the forum):

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=20491.0

Might be worth a look for nostalgia's sake.

EDIT: Looks like a pretty split mix of CDR and Jordan, though more people seem to be questioning Jordan's ability.


EDIT EDIT: Hahahaha, people panning Serge Ibaka going #24. "Sonics are run by idiots."  This was also the same draft that they were idiots for taking Westbrook at #4.

Yup.
vvvvvvvvv

[indeedproceed]

Big swing pick

Awwwww gawd ........ awful pick by Seattle. Horrific. Westbrook. Terrible.

I'm devastated for Kevin Durant. He'll have his second straight year of having the most limited teammates as his supporting cast.

I'm not a huge fan of Westbrook.  I like Bayless better.

[Moranis]

In retrospect I probably over-valued Delonte (remembering his Celtic days more than the injuries and other issues). I'd still rate him as "definitely higher," but maybe not by much. (You can really name 23 players you would have drafted earlier than him? I just went through and can only think of 18...).

Sticking to my guns on Allen though. I'd personally only rank 10 or so players as having panned out better than him. I'm admittedly a sucker for defense over offense, but I don't think there's enough room for disagreement that he'd be out of the lottery for very many people...

Clearly ahead of West
Dwight
Okafor
Gordon
Harris
Childress
Deng
Iguodala
Biedrins
Jefferson
Josh Smith
JR Smith
Nelson
Allen
Martin
Varejao
Andres Nocioni (undrafted rookie in 2004)
16 total

Likely ahead of West
Telfair
Humphries
Wright
Ariza
4 subtotal, 20 total

Possibly ahead of West
Livingston
Udrih
Duhon
3 subtotal, 23 total

About the same as West
Swift (injuries did him in, not suckiness)
Vujacic
Ivey
3 subtotal, 26 total

So I think he would go from 21st to 27th depending on team need and what not.

[StartOrien]

Big swing pick

Awwwww gawd ........ awful pick by Seattle. Horrific. Westbrook. Terrible.

I'm devastated for Kevin Durant. He'll have his second straight year of having the most limited teammates as his supporting cast.

I'm not a huge fan of Westbrook.  I like Bayless better.

Welp, Roy's definitely got a type

[kozlodoev]

Melo has been a total stiff who can not stay out the way of a door frame. We were wiped out by injuries and dopes running off to the Balkans and Melo still could not get time in on the team. Rather than bring him up after Jason Collins got traded we brought in guys who just left the Chinese league.

Then JaJuan Johnson. If you can name the three D-League teams he has bounced around this year without looking it up I will send you a prize. I think that sums that up nicely.

Thank goodness we did get Sullinger.

Danny has not been drafting like he used to. Has me worried.

Wait, a mid-first rounder didn't pan out? Two out of three years? Stop the presses!

For an example of truly incompetent drafting, I suggest a review of the Clippers selections from the 1990s.