Guessing how many teams would kill to get Rondo

[BballTim]

BballTim, your Rondo obsession is a bit concerning, but I'm trying to gauge  how much you (over) value him. If Sacramento or New Orleans calls you and asks you to name your price, what is a fair return value for you to trade Rondo to each?

I don't even bother arguing with you about Rondo anymore and I'm certain others have quit too. You're too much of a Rondo apologist to have impartial thoughts on the matter. However, I am curious to hear your thoughts.

  Fair return is someone who will play like one of the best players in the league in the playoffs. Who do you think fits the bill on Sac or NO?

[CoachBo]

Problem is that this league is littered with talented scoring point guards.  We're in the midst of a point guard boom.

There are at least 6 who are arguably better than Rondo and several more of comparable talent.

Clippers - Chris Paul
Thunder - Westbrook
Spurs - Parker
Warriors - Curry
Cavs - Irving
Philly - Holiday
Brooklyn - Williams
...
I doubt any of the above teams would be interested in trading their Point guard straight up for Rondo.

Additionally you have:

Hornets - Vasquez (averaging 14, 9 and 4)
Portland - Lillard (one of the best young guards in the league)
Bucks - Jennings (23 and still improving)
Denver - Lawson
Toronto - Lowry
Timberwolves - Rubio
Washington - John Wall
Houston - Jeremy Lin

... FOr all of the above teams, I feel like it would be a tough sell.  None of the above players are perfect, but neither is Rondo... and I imagine they'd have some debate over whether or not it was an actual upgrade or not.

There are teams like Utah who clearly need a quality PG (although they'd probably prefer one who could shoot so they could spread the floor enough to let their bigs do work down low)

The list starts to get really short.  It's the reason why Ainge has been unsuccessful in trading Rondo despite shopping him every year.  Teams around the league see him as a flawed player who may be the statistical beneficiary of his system.  A lot of teams already have point guards they are content with.  And a lot of teams are content not having a star point guard in the first place... they'd rather hang onto their talented bigs and talented scorers than trade for a flawed passer.  For example, add Miami to a list of teams who doesn't give a crap if they have Rondo or not.

So I imagine the list of teams who would "kill" to get Rondo is pretty short.  And of those teams, I'm not sure how many of them have an asset we'd be that interested in.

Houston would trade Lin for Rondo in a heartbeat.

Agreed, but Conley, Teague, Dragic are pretty good too. Miami, NYK, Pacers all have no real need for him. Nobody really wants Rondo.

I actually think that Conley, Teague, and Dragic should replace Vasquez, Lowry, and Lin on the above list.

But you're right about those 3 teams (NY is questionable); there are some teams, the way they're set up, who don't need a great pg to flourish.

But a team can always upgrade. The Heat really just don't need a pg, because of LeBron and Wade, so they're a bad example.



BUT, let me analyze (and this is pretending Rondo didn't tear his ACL):

Outside of -

Brooklyn
Minny
LAC
Cleveland
OKC
Portland
Philly
Golden State
San Antonio
Chicago
Washington (although I don't think Wall's gonna be much of a player; could be wrong)

- every team would see Rondo as an upgrade over their current starting PG (the youngins on the teams above are valued based on current skill, and potential)


Which leaves:

New York
Milwaukee
LAL
Orlando
Denver
Atlanta
Utah
Indie
Toronto
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Charlotte
Sacramento
New Orleans
Phoenix
Memphis
Miami

To which Rondo would be an upgrade over their current pg.

Now, I already mentioned why Miami wouldn't want/ need Rondo.


But out of the other aforementioned teams:



New York doesn't really have the assets.

The Lakers have Nash for the moment, and if a trade were to happen, it would have already happened, I feel. Plus, they also don't really have the assets. I don't think they'd trade Dwight, and I don't think we'd take anyone else.

Memphis is doing pretty dang good with Conley, and lacks assets when it comes down to it. They won't give up Gasol.

So those teams are out.


Which brings me to the teams that have the potential assets, but may lack incentive because they're happy with their current pg:

Atlanta -I think it depends on the Josh Smith situation; they're high on Teague.

Denver - I think they'd trade for Rondo, to get that star that can put them over the top. But they're doing pretty freaking good, as is, and Lawson may or may not be their best player on a balanced team.

Indiana - I think they're cool with their current lineup, and their team is set up similarly to the current Celtics, but with a deeper frontcourt. You never know, they have some good youngins, and I think Rondo would put them over the top. George Hill is still young, and they have pg depth, so idt this is happening.

Milwaukee - I'm not sure how high they are on Jennings, but Rondo's a HUGE upgrade, either way. Jennings is only 23, so he still has a lot of development ahead of him.

Houston - Rondo is, and will be miles ahead of Lin, and Houston has a lot to give up. Rondo and Harden would be scary together, but it would probably cost them Asik, so I think it's out.

Toronto - Yeah, Kyle Lowry is good, no real flaws, but he's not an all star. They'd probably give up one of Derozan or Ross.


So, that leaves -

Orlando - Could just use some good players at this point.

Utah - Mo Williams is bleh. Rondo would have the same effect on them as he would for Denver. They're the best team out of this group, but Rondo would fit this lineup like a glove.

Dallas - They don't have too many assets, but they have Mark Cuban and cap space. Also depends on CP3.

Detroit - Brandon Knight is good, and has a boatload of potential, but I don't see him ever being as good as Rondo. Also, they, IN ALL LIKELINESS, wouldn't give up Drummond or Monroe. MAYBE Monroe.

Charlotte - Matters how high on Kemba they are. Me thinks they'd take Rondo.

Sacramento - Pfff. They'll trade anyone but Cousins.

New Orleans - I think (THINK) they'd give up Vasquez and Rivers, and probably more, for Rondo.

Phoenix - Once again, Pffff.

- These teams lack the good-great PG, lack the wins, and have the potential assets and probable inclination to trade some of said assets for Rondo. (picks count as assets)

So that's the basis from which you can guess who'd trade for Rajon Rondo, and why; unless you have some inside knowledge on the mind of some GM's. It's a fair amount of opinion, but I stayed as rational as possible.

I agree with pretty much everything you said.  TP.

It's a good list, and a good account.

But I still think that if you believe the Lakers will choose to go forward with a 40-year-old point guard, when their star has an almost Celtics Blog-like obsession with Rondo, you're assuming something that may well not be there.

And you're forgetting about Gasol's mutual dislike for D'Antoni.

My preferred destination to offload Rondo is Sacramento, and I don't necessarily agree that anyone's off the table there.

But when Ainge begins seriously shopping Rondo - which means valuing him appropriately, and not like his worshippers on this blog insist - Kupchak will be at his door.

You can count on it.

[Celtics18]

BballTim, your Rondo obsession is a bit concerning, but I'm trying to gauge  how much you (over) value him. If Sacramento or New Orleans calls you and asks you to name your price, what is a fair return value for you to trade Rondo to each?

I don't even bother arguing with you about Rondo anymore and I'm certain others have quit too. You're too much of a Rondo apologist to have impartial thoughts on the matter. However, I am curious to hear your thoughts.

Personally, I'd tell both of those teams, "no thanks.  Rondo's not for sale for what you have to offer."

I wouldn't be surprised if those teams have, indeed, called Ainge about trying to acquire Rondo and gotten very similar responses to the one I gave. 

[AshyLarry]

Problem is that this league is littered with talented scoring point guards.  We're in the midst of a point guard boom.

There are at least 6 who are arguably better than Rondo and several more of comparable talent.

Clippers - Chris Paul
Thunder - Westbrook
Spurs - Parker
Warriors - Curry
Cavs - Irving
Philly - Holiday
Brooklyn - Williams
...
I doubt any of the above teams would be interested in trading their Point guard straight up for Rondo.

Additionally you have:

Hornets - Vasquez (averaging 14, 9 and 4)
Portland - Lillard (one of the best young guards in the league)
Bucks - Jennings (23 and still improving)
Denver - Lawson
Toronto - Lowry
Timberwolves - Rubio
Washington - John Wall
Houston - Jeremy Lin

... FOr all of the above teams, I feel like it would be a tough sell.  None of the above players are perfect, but neither is Rondo... and I imagine they'd have some debate over whether or not it was an actual upgrade or not.

There are teams like Utah who clearly need a quality PG (although they'd probably prefer one who could shoot so they could spread the floor enough to let their bigs do work down low)

The list starts to get really short.  It's the reason why Ainge has been unsuccessful in trading Rondo despite shopping him every year.  Teams around the league see him as a flawed player who may be the statistical beneficiary of his system.  A lot of teams already have point guards they are content with.  And a lot of teams are content not having a star point guard in the first place... they'd rather hang onto their talented bigs and talented scorers than trade for a flawed passer.  For example, add Miami to a list of teams who doesn't give a crap if they have Rondo or not.

So I imagine the list of teams who would "kill" to get Rondo is pretty short.  And of those teams, I'm not sure how many of them have an asset we'd be that interested in.

Houston would trade Lin for Rondo in a heartbeat.

Agreed, but Conley, Teague, Dragic are pretty good too. Miami, NYK, Pacers all have no real need for him. Nobody really wants Rondo.

I actually think that Conley, Teague, and Dragic should replace Vasquez, Lowry, and Lin on the above list.

But you're right about those 3 teams (NY is questionable); there are some teams, the way they're set up, who don't need a great pg to flourish.

But a team can always upgrade. The Heat really just don't need a pg, because of LeBron and Wade, so they're a bad example.



BUT, let me analyze (and this is pretending Rondo didn't tear his ACL):

Outside of -

Brooklyn
Minny
LAC
Cleveland
OKC
Portland
Philly
Golden State
San Antonio
Chicago
Washington (although I don't think Wall's gonna be much of a player; could be wrong)

- every team would see Rondo as an upgrade over their current starting PG (the youngins on the teams above are valued based on current skill, and potential)


Which leaves:

New York
Milwaukee
LAL
Orlando
Denver
Atlanta
Utah
Indie
Toronto
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Charlotte
Sacramento
New Orleans
Phoenix
Memphis
Miami

To which Rondo would be an upgrade over their current pg.

Now, I already mentioned why Miami wouldn't want/ need Rondo.


But out of the other aforementioned teams:



New York doesn't really have the assets.

The Lakers have Nash for the moment, and if a trade were to happen, it would have already happened, I feel. Plus, they also don't really have the assets. I don't think they'd trade Dwight, and I don't think we'd take anyone else.

Memphis is doing pretty dang good with Conley, and lacks assets when it comes down to it. They won't give up Gasol.

So those teams are out.


Which brings me to the teams that have the potential assets, but may lack incentive because they're happy with their current pg:

Atlanta -I think it depends on the Josh Smith situation; they're high on Teague.

Denver - I think they'd trade for Rondo, to get that star that can put them over the top. But they're doing pretty freaking good, as is, and Lawson may or may not be their best player on a balanced team.

Indiana - I think they're cool with their current lineup, and their team is set up similarly to the current Celtics, but with a deeper frontcourt. You never know, they have some good youngins, and I think Rondo would put them over the top. George Hill is still young, and they have pg depth, so idt this is happening.

Milwaukee - I'm not sure how high they are on Jennings, but Rondo's a HUGE upgrade, either way. Jennings is only 23, so he still has a lot of development ahead of him.

Houston - Rondo is, and will be miles ahead of Lin, and Houston has a lot to give up. Rondo and Harden would be scary together, but it would probably cost them Asik, so I think it's out.

Toronto - Yeah, Kyle Lowry is good, no real flaws, but he's not an all star. They'd probably give up one of Derozan or Ross.


So, that leaves -

Orlando - Could just use some good players at this point.

Utah - Mo Williams is bleh. Rondo would have the same effect on them as he would for Denver. They're the best team out of this group, but Rondo would fit this lineup like a glove.

Dallas - They don't have too many assets, but they have Mark Cuban and cap space. Also depends on CP3.

Detroit - Brandon Knight is good, and has a boatload of potential, but I don't see him ever being as good as Rondo. Also, they, IN ALL LIKELINESS, wouldn't give up Drummond or Monroe. MAYBE Monroe.

Charlotte - Matters how high on Kemba they are. Me thinks they'd take Rondo.

Sacramento - Pfff. They'll trade anyone but Cousins.

New Orleans - I think (THINK) they'd give up Vasquez and Rivers, and probably more, for Rondo.

Phoenix - Once again, Pffff.

- These teams lack the good-great PG, lack the wins, and have the potential assets and probable inclination to trade some of said assets for Rondo. (picks count as assets)

So that's the basis from which you can guess who'd trade for Rajon Rondo, and why; unless you have some inside knowledge on the mind of some GM's. It's a fair amount of opinion, but I stayed as rational as possible.

I agree with pretty much everything you said.  TP.

It's a good list, and a good account.

But I still think that if you believe the Lakers will choose to go forward with a 40-year-old point guard, when their star has an almost Celtics Blog-like obsession with Rondo, you're assuming something that may well not be there.

And you're forgetting about Gasol's mutual dislike for D'Antoni.

My preferred destination to offload Rondo is Sacramento, and I don't necessarily agree that anyone's off the table there.

But when Ainge begins seriously shopping Rondo - which means valuing him appropriately, and not like his worshippers on this blog insist - Kupchak will be at his door.

You can count on it.

The only reason I think they'd go along with Nash, is because he did the Lakers a favor by going to LA. He could've chosen to be traded to other teams to ride out his career, but he chose LA, who needed his boost. It wouldn't be very classy on their part.

That being said, I wouldn't put it past the Lakers. But I don't think we'd take anyone they have, including Pau Gasol.

[CoachBo]

Gasol is not my preferred return for Rondo, but I'd listen if other assets were involved in a Rondo, Bass package.

By now, you'd think it would be clear that Ainge has been shopping Rondo for awhile, and, to say the least, the league's opinion of Rondo's game doesn't match Ainge's.

In fact, given all the hyperbole here, I doubt if Rondo's opinion of his own game - his substantial ego notwithstanding - measures up to the rhapsodical view of his game here.

Now, if Sacramento put Cousins and Evans on the table and Danny said no, he should be fired.

My position remains the same on Rondo: If Ainge and Wyc are serious about rebuilding on the fly, trade him. He is the Celtics' most marketable asset, and we're seeing pretty clearly that we lose little on the ballhandling side - and actually profit defensively - with the club on the floor post injury

Trading Pierce and Garnett accomplishes nothing other than to ease the minds of the Rondo obsession crowd.

[pearljammer10]

Thirty

[BballTim]

Thirty

   Most nba teams that followed the playoffs over the last 3-4 years.

[ejk3489]

It's a good list, and a good account.

But I still think that if you believe the Lakers will choose to go forward with a 40-year-old point guard, when their star has an almost Celtics Blog-like obsession with Rondo, you're assuming something that may well not be there.

And you're forgetting about Gasol's mutual dislike for D'Antoni.

My preferred destination to offload Rondo is Sacramento, and I don't necessarily agree that anyone's off the table there.

But when Ainge begins seriously shopping Rondo - which means valuing him appropriately, and not like his worshippers on this blog insist - Kupchak will be at his door.

You can count on it.

If Ainge ever traded Rondo for an old and injured Gasol, or for anyone else on the Lakers roster not named Dwight Howard, he should be fired immediately.

[CelticConcourse]

Yeah. In theory 5-10 could, but truly just 1-2 would. And those 1-2 won't necessarily net huge returns.

[LooseCannon]

By now, you'd think it would be clear that Ainge has been shopping Rondo for awhile, and, to say the least, the league's opinion of Rondo's game doesn't match Ainge's.

There's some question as to whether Ainge is serious when he talks to other teams about Rondo.  There's some belief around the league that he was only really serious when he was talking about a Chris Paul trade.

I suspect that Ainge thinks that blowing up the team would mean trying to move Rondo in addition to Garnett and Pierce, so he's always calculating the value of an aggregate of moves vs holding the team together for another run.

[LooseCannon]

Yeah. In theory 5-10 could, but truly just 1-2 would. And those 1-2 won't necessarily net huge returns.

Well, you just need one sucker to make a trade.  Proposing a trade should probably be more along the lines of figuring out who the bad GMs are, then figuring out how to steal the assets they undervalue rather than trying to lock in on a specific player and trying to figure out what it takes to get him.

[CelticConcourse]

Yeah. In theory 5-10 could, but truly just 1-2 would. And those 1-2 won't necessarily net huge returns.

Well, you just need one sucker to make a trade.  Proposing a trade should probably be more along the lines of figuring out who the bad GMs are, then figuring out how to steal the assets they undervalue rather than trying to lock in on a specific player and trying to figure out what it takes to get him.

There are no "bad GMs" in the NBA, I'm sorry to say.

Every deal has a purpose.

[LooseCannon]

Yeah. In theory 5-10 could, but truly just 1-2 would. And those 1-2 won't necessarily net huge returns.

Well, you just need one sucker to make a trade.  Proposing a trade should probably be more along the lines of figuring out who the bad GMs are, then figuring out how to steal the assets they undervalue rather than trying to lock in on a specific player and trying to figure out what it takes to get him.

There are no "bad GMs" in the NBA, I'm sorry to say.

Every deal has a purpose.

There are "bad GMs" just as there are "bad head coaches" in the NBA.  Even if you think all GMs have a certain basic competence, some have to be the worst of the bunch, with relative flaws to be exploited.  Also, there are "bad owners" who sometimes force GMs to act against their better judgment.

[BleedGreen1989]

I don't know but I see Detroit as being a real option. They have the young assets to do a deal and the city of Detroit would LOVE Rondo's hard nosed mentality.

Rondo/Bass

for

Knight/Drummond/Villenova

[crimson_stallion]

As another person mentioned above...if Danny turned down an offer of Tyreke and Cousins for Rondo he should be fired.

I very seriously doubt Sac would offer that.

Basically if you look at our current team, our record clearly has not suffered since Rondo went out.  You can argue back and forth all you want about whether we are a better team without Rondo, but what you CAN'T argue about is that we have certainly played better since he got hurt.

That may or may not be a result of Rondo's absense, but the fact that his loss has not hurt us at all to this point suggests that his value to this team is nowhere near as high as a lot of people believe.

Out team right now is in the 6th seed in the East, and we're only 1.5 games behind Brooklyn for the 4th seed.  Before Rondo got hurt we were a couple of games OUTSIDE the top 8 and there was a real question as to whether we were even going to make the playoffs.  We have made this major push without Rondo - that is the fact of the matter.

If you have the talent to be a top 4 team in the East (as we obviously do right now based on our current record and streak) and then add two guys of the calibre of Tyreke Evans and Demarcus Cousins to that top-4 calibre team...and if you can add those guys without losing anybody from your current roster then I can't think of a single person in the league who doesn't list you as a serious title contender.

Now imagine (in hindsight) if we DID make this trade, and then we also traded Pierce for Josh Smith?

Suddenly you have a starting lineup of:

Bradley
Evans
Smith
Garnett
Cousins

And a bench of:

Terry
Jordan
Lee
Williams
Green
Bass
Wilcox
Melo

Only three guys (Wilcox, Terry, Garnett) on that team over 30 years of age, and you have a team who is a legit title contender this year and potentially for the next 10 years tha follow.   You save yourelf the need to ever go in to a full 'rebuild' mode...and when KG and Terry retire another $15M comes off your books.

So yes, Ainge would need to be the greatest bonehead in the history of GM's to not take that deal.  If it were ever offered I am pretty confident he would have taken it.