Report: Josh Smith will explore free agency,won't sign extension

[sofutomygaha]

Well, this is where it comes down to player evaluation.  Personally, I just see Smith as a very marginal All-Star talent.  I think he has GAPING holes in his game, and that is hard to pay a premium for.

Really, I think Smith is basically Gerald Wallace.  And Wallace is looked at as overpaid at 4 years/$40 million.  I wouldn't pay the extra for Smith.

Your choice of comparable players illustrates how much we disagree. As a scorer, Smith's value is probably similar to Wallace's, but I think that as a rebounder, a passer, and a defender Smith is far superior.

I fished around on basketball reference to try to find what I think is a good comparable for Smith and I was surprised what I came up with. If you look at their rates and efficiency scores, Josh Smith's 11-12 season was a clone of Kevin Garnett's. PER about 21, rebound rate about 16, assist rate about 15, turnover rate about 10, true shooting about .500. The defensive metrics vary more, but I think there's a consensus that both are among the top 10-20 defensive players in the NBA.

Smith is 26 right now, and the next four years ought to look a lot like last year. The way I'm looking at it is this- would KG be worth a max deal today if you could guarantee that he wouldn't age?

[sofutomygaha]

We should worry about him getting shipped to Chicago for Boozer.

After this year, Boozer will have two more at $15M per year. Why do you think Atlanta would do this?

[Chris]

Well, this is where it comes down to player evaluation.  Personally, I just see Smith as a very marginal All-Star talent.  I think he has GAPING holes in his game, and that is hard to pay a premium for.

Really, I think Smith is basically Gerald Wallace.  And Wallace is looked at as overpaid at 4 years/$40 million.  I wouldn't pay the extra for Smith.

Your choice of comparable players illustrates how much we disagree. As a scorer, Smith's value is probably similar to Wallace's, but I think that as a rebounder, a passer, and a defender Smith is far superior.

I fished around on basketball reference to try to find what I think is a good comparable for Smith and I was surprised what I came up with. If you look at their rates and efficiency scores, Josh Smith's 11-12 season was a clone of Kevin Garnett's. PER about 21, rebound rate about 16, assist rate about 15, turnover rate about 10, true shooting about .500. The defensive metrics vary more, but I think there's a consensus that both are among the top 10-20 defensive players in the NBA.

Smith is 26 right now, and the next four years ought to look a lot like last year. The way I'm looking at it is this- would KG be worth a max deal today if you could guarantee that he wouldn't age?

I might have undershot a little with Wallace (although I think Wallace is actually a BETTER defender, but Smith is a much better rebounder), but KG, really?  Do you mean 36 year old KG?  Or 26 year old KG?

Because 26 year old KG was probably one of the top 10 players of all time, and a monster on both ends of the court.

Not to mention KG is 7'1", and a center.  So, yes, if he was guaranteed to have the same year as last year, I think he would be worth the max...but that is as a 7'1" center.  If he were a 6'9" powerforward, I think he would be worth about $10-11 million per year.

[BballTim]

Well, this is where it comes down to player evaluation.  Personally, I just see Smith as a very marginal All-Star talent.  I think he has GAPING holes in his game, and that is hard to pay a premium for.

Really, I think Smith is basically Gerald Wallace.  And Wallace is looked at as overpaid at 4 years/$40 million.  I wouldn't pay the extra for Smith.

Your choice of comparable players illustrates how much we disagree. As a scorer, Smith's value is probably similar to Wallace's, but I think that as a rebounder, a passer, and a defender Smith is far superior.

I fished around on basketball reference to try to find what I think is a good comparable for Smith and I was surprised what I came up with. If you look at their rates and efficiency scores, Josh Smith's 11-12 season was a clone of Kevin Garnett's. PER about 21, rebound rate about 16, assist rate about 15, turnover rate about 10, true shooting about .500. The defensive metrics vary more, but I think there's a consensus that both are among the top 10-20 defensive players in the NBA.

Smith is 26 right now, and the next four years ought to look a lot like last year. The way I'm looking at it is this- would KG be worth a max deal today if you could guarantee that he wouldn't age?

  Keep in mind that KG came into last season out of shape and played pretty poorly for over a month of a strike shortened season, so his healthy and in shape play is well above Smith's. And while Smith might be a consensus top 20 defender, KG is at worst a top 5 defender. Would KG be worth a max contract today if his play hadn't picked up considerably near the end of the season? I'd say clearly not.

[relja]

I think he learned from the Dwightmare that he shouldn't publicize his requests. At the bottom line, he will sit and wait 'till the free agency so he can somehow sign with us. I think he wants us as much as Dwight wanted the Lakers.

[More Banners]

We should worry about him getting shipped to Chicago for Boozer.

After this year, Boozer will have two more at $15M per year. Why do you think Atlanta would do this?

Because Chicago should want it enough to make it happen, and Atlanta could claim to be getting a return.  Throw in the pieces to make it work:  picks and cash to ATL for starters, including picks and prospects that CHI could acquire by putting together a larger deal.

Sort of like when we helped Sheed get to DET, some other team out west might be willing to grease the wheels in small ways that add up, i.e. 2nd rounders, swapping role players or prospects, etc.

And ATL just let Joe J go, so they could choose to go full-out blow up, and Boozer is a good guy for a bad team to have for a couple of years.

So that's why:  because Chicago should want JSmith enough to gather enough picks and prospects to match with Boozer to make it happen.

[sofutomygaha]

I might have undershot a little with Wallace (although I think Wallace is actually a BETTER defender, but Smith is a much better rebounder), but KG, really?  Do you mean 36 year old KG?  Or 26 year old KG?

Because 26 year old KG was probably one of the top 10 players of all time, and a monster on both ends of the court.

Not to mention KG is 7'1", and a center.  So, yes, if he was guaranteed to have the same year as last year, I think he would be worth the max...but that is as a 7'1" center.  If he were a 6'9" power forward, I think he would be worth about $10-11 million per year.

Nonononono, I definitely mean 36-yo KG!! I'm not trying to talk anyone into Josh Smith being a hall of famer. =)

Regarding height and position, well, both players actually spent time last year at both positions. Smith may not be 7', but he still blocks shots at an elite, Dwight-Howard-like rate.

Regarding defense... like I said the stats are sketchy. For what it's worth, though, Josh Smith ranked in at 5th in defensive rating and 1st in defensive win shares last year. Those rating systems at least pass the smell test- I'm scanning the rankings and both top 20s include the names you would expect (such as KG, Tyson Chandler, Rondo, Lebron James, Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka, Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, etc). Smith ranks #4 in the league by hoopdata's defense metric (steals+blocks+charges taken).

Gerald Wallace is a very good defender, but he hasn't appeared in the top 20 of any of these since 09-10 season. The adjusted 2-year +/- numbers at basketballvalue.com like both players a lot, but they also put Smith up in the top 5 while Wallace ranks 18th.

Looking at the numbers, though, I'll admit I hadn't realized what a valuable player Gerald Wallace probably is defensively.

[sofutomygaha]

So that's why:  because Chicago should want JSmith enough to gather enough picks and prospects to match with Boozer to make it happen.

I don't believe you! I don't think Chicago will have the picks to give that would make this worthwhile for Atl.

[More Banners]

So that's why:  because Chicago should want JSmith enough to gather enough picks and prospects to match with Boozer to make it happen.

I don't believe you! I don't think Chicago will have the picks to give that would make this worthwhile for Atl.

Yeah, they probably don't.  But they can start burning up the phones, and should.  Buy picks.  Trade role players for prospects.  Raid the cupboard.  Fesenko and Taj Gibson to ATL, too. 

Imagine Thibs coaching:

Rose/Deng/Smith/Noah

[rondohondo]

So that's why:  because Chicago should want JSmith enough to gather enough picks and prospects to match with Boozer to make it happen.

I don't believe you! I don't think Chicago will have the picks to give that would make this worthwhile for Atl.

Yeah, they probably don't.  But they can start burning up the phones, and should.  Buy picks.  Trade role players for prospects.  Raid the cupboard.  Fesenko and Taj Gibson to ATL, too. 

Imagine Thibs coaching:

Rose/Deng/Smith/Noah

Atlanta needs a center and Noah makes a lot of sense in a trade for Josh Smith. Atlanta gets to team up a front court that won to national titles together in college and would work very well together in the pros . Noah filler and picks might work ?

[Who]

Imagine Thibs coaching:

Rose/Deng/Smith/Noah

Atlanta needs a center and Noah makes a lot of sense in a trade for Josh Smith. Atlanta gets to team up a front court that won to national titles together in college and would work very well together in the pros . Noah filler and picks might work ?

(1) I think Joakim Noah for Josh Smith would've made more sense if Omer Asik was still there. Losing a center as valuable as Noah is tough to do without a replacement there given the difficulty of acquiring one. I think they'd be better off keeping Noah than adding Josh Smith.

(2) A big man trio of Josh Smith, Omer Asik and Carlos Boozer (sixth man) would've been a very interesting three man unit. Boozer would be a big offensive boost offensive boost off the bench with Asik in a 20-25 minute role.

(3) Josh Smith and Joakim Noah (or Asik) with Derrick Rose would be difficult to work offensively given the lack of jump-shooting from the bigs. Opposing teams will be able to clog the paint to easily.

Continuing on ... due to Josh Smith's iffy jump-shot, I think he'd be problematic to pair with Rose. Chicago would need to find a way to add a jump-shooting center (like Brook Lopez) to get proper balance offensively. Difficult to find quality skilled centers.

[More Banners]

So that's why:  because Chicago should want JSmith enough to gather enough picks and prospects to match with Boozer to make it happen.

I don't believe you! I don't think Chicago will have the picks to give that would make this worthwhile for Atl.

Yeah, they probably don't.  But they can start burning up the phones, and should.  Buy picks.  Trade role players for prospects.  Raid the cupboard.  Fesenko and Taj Gibson to ATL, too. 

Imagine Thibs coaching:

Rose/Deng/Smith/Noah

Atlanta needs a center and Noah makes a lot of sense in a trade for Josh Smith. Atlanta gets to team up a front court that won to national titles together in college and would work very well together in the pros . Noah filler and picks might work ?

I say they take Gibson too, but that's a heck of a deal.

Not sure how CHI cleans up afterward.  I guess they start Boozer at C to fill out the year, then sort it out in the offseason.  I think Deng stays in Chicago forever.

[nostar]

I want to say I'd take Josh Smith in a trade but I couldn't take him as a Free Agent. He will command too much money for a proficient PF. The NBA is full of really good PFs making 9-12M. I'm not willing to give one a max contract when we will have to give Rondo more $ soon and still need a center, the most expensive position in the NBA.

If Smith wants to sign here for less because of Rondo we can reward him with a championship. Otherwise I'll take Millsap for 10M or wait for Cousins and see if he's worth a max deal in a couple years.

[SHAQATTACK]

I think he learned from the Dwightmare that he shouldn't publicize his requests. At the bottom line, he will sit and wait 'till the free agency so he can somehow sign with us. I think he wants us as much as Dwight wanted the Lakers.

as sorry as we are playing tonight , maybe dumping half the team for him would be good....

I bet DA is not the happy camper. ..even if it is pre season

[karimb]

J.Smith would be such a perfect fit for this team