Report: Josh Smith will explore free agency,won't sign extension

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It's not a good idea to dismantle the most talented and balanced roster in the league and my lifetime for one player that I think is really a sub-star, not a superstar.

JGreen is a sub-star, and I wouldn't trade his versatility for Smith straight up today.

Sully is looking like he might be at least sub-star, but it's probably not worth trading him for an established player unless we need it to win now, which we don't.  So I don't trade Sully.

Bradley:  a role player that is a difference maker.  He's not filler; he's a key piece that every champion has on the roster.

So...what do you trade?  Bass and Lee, who were just signed/convinced to come here?  No.  Not this season, not at the deadline even, though I think they are the two most expendable once Bradley is back and Sully is up to speed.  Not even if Atlanta was silly enough to take that plus picks and prospects.

Folks, I enjoy the trade scenario chatter, but this isn't a team to discuss breaking up before it gets out of the gate.

[Quinn]

It's not a good idea to dismantle the most talented and balanced roster in the league and my lifetime for one player that I think is really a sub-star, not a superstar.

JGreen is a sub-star, and I wouldn't trade his versatility for Smith straight up today.

Sully is looking like he might be at least sub-star, but it's probably not worth trading him for an established player unless we need it to win now, which we don't.  So I don't trade Sully.

Bradley:  a role player that is a difference maker.  He's not filler; he's a key piece that every champion has on the roster.

So...what do you trade?  Bass and Lee, who were just signed/convinced to come here?  No.  Not this season, not at the deadline even, though I think they are the two most expendable once Bradley is back and Sully is up to speed.  Not even if Atlanta was silly enough to take that plus picks and prospects.

Folks, I enjoy the trade scenario chatter, but this isn't a team to discuss breaking up before it gets out of the gate.

But what would This place be without wild trade idea threads and days of pointless banter to follow?

[indeedproceed]

It's not a good idea to dismantle the most talented and balanced roster in the league and my lifetime for one player that I think is really a sub-star, not a superstar.

JGreen is a sub-star, and I wouldn't trade his versatility for Smith straight up today.

Sully is looking like he might be at least sub-star, but it's probably not worth trading him for an established player unless we need it to win now, which we don't.  So I don't trade Sully.

Bradley:  a role player that is a difference maker.  He's not filler; he's a key piece that every champion has on the roster.

So...what do you trade?  Bass and Lee, who were just signed/convinced to come here?  No.  Not this season, not at the deadline even, though I think they are the two most expendable once Bradley is back and Sully is up to speed.  Not even if Atlanta was silly enough to take that plus picks and prospects.

Folks, I enjoy the trade scenario chatter, but this isn't a team to discuss breaking up before it gets out of the gate.

It is also a team that isn't worth anointing before they get out of the gate either.

I think your opinion really underrates Josh Smith here. Jeff Green to this point in his career has shown himself to be an inferior offensive and defensive player to Josh Smith, and the gap on defense is glaringly wide as of this point in time.

Your chemistry concerns I also feel are ignoring a critical element, and that's the fact that aside from KG and Pierce, Josh Smith likely already has a better rapport with Rondo than anyone else currently on the roster.

And if we were able to pull off a trade like:

Boston Trades: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Fab Melo, 1st

Atlanta Trades: Josh Smith, Kyle Korver

It would be an absolute homerun.

[Chris]

I am going to stick with what I have been saying about a Smith trade.

If it is based around Bass, we would likely have to include a LOT of both salary filler that comes in the form of useful NBA players, as well as even more sweetener, to make it worthwhile for Atlanta to give up the cap space this summer for a role player like Bass, who plays the same position as the position they would like their star (Horford) to play going forward.

Now, I think it would be easier to build a trade around Green, both because of his higher salary for matching purposes, and his higher potential to be an impact player and step in at a position of need for them. 

The problem with building the trade around Green is that, if he doesn't really impress in the first half of the season, to the point where he looks like a bargain at $9 million per year, you are going to really have to blow Atlanta away with other assets to make it worth taking on his salary...and I am not sure the C's can afford to give up all their good young assets for a rental of Smith.  Or, if Green impresses, then I am not sure Danny is going to jump at giving up Green on what could be a bargain contract, along with other assets, for a rental, and the right to overpay Josh Smith this summer.

I think the C's made sense as a trade partner for the Hawks last year, but unfortunately the Hawks were not ready to deal, and they lost that window.

There is a chance a sign and trade could be worked out this summer, once the Hawks have worked out what they are going to do with their cap space, and realize they don't want to lose Smith for nothing.  But right now, I just don't think there is a deal that makes sense.

I personally expect to see Smith finish the year in LA (based around Gasol for Smith, to entice Howard to resign in LA), or perhaps Houston.

[SHAQATTACK]

I am going to stick with what I have been saying about a Smith trade.

If it is based around Bass, we would likely have to include a LOT of both salary filler that comes in the form of useful NBA players, as well as even more sweetener, to make it worthwhile for Atlanta to give up the cap space this summer for a role player like Bass, who plays the same position as the position they would like their star (Horford) to play going forward.

Now, I think it would be easier to build a trade around Green, both because of his higher salary for matching purposes, and his higher potential to be an impact player and step in at a position of need for them. 

The problem with building the trade around Green is that, if he doesn't really impress in the first half of the season, to the point where he looks like a bargain at $9 million per year, you are going to really have to blow Atlanta away with other assets to make it worth taking on his salary...and I am not sure the C's can afford to give up all their good young assets for a rental of Smith.  Or, if Green impresses, then I am not sure Danny is going to jump at giving up Green on what could be a bargain contract, along with other assets, for a rental, and the right to overpay Josh Smith this summer.

I think the C's made sense as a trade partner for the Hawks last year, but unfortunately the Hawks were not ready to deal, and they lost that window.

There is a chance a sign and trade could be worked out this summer, once the Hawks have worked out what they are going to do with their cap space, and realize they don't want to lose Smith for nothing.  But right now, I just don't think there is a deal that makes sense.

I personally expect to see Smith finish the year in LA (based around Gasol for Smith, to entice Howard to resign in LA), or perhaps Houston.

Way I see it , by the end of the year, Green is either gonna make Danny look like prophetic genius ( making his value even higher ) or as one of the poorer deals to come down in Boston in long time.

Really the pressure is one Jeff Green. He has his health, and surrounding decent team and opportunity to TURN IT ON.  NO DURRANT to hog the ball and fame.  His time to produce and become the best he can or drop down to a bench role journeyman to wander around the league.

 

[Chris]

I am going to stick with what I have been saying about a Smith trade.

If it is based around Bass, we would likely have to include a LOT of both salary filler that comes in the form of useful NBA players, as well as even more sweetener, to make it worthwhile for Atlanta to give up the cap space this summer for a role player like Bass, who plays the same position as the position they would like their star (Horford) to play going forward.

Now, I think it would be easier to build a trade around Green, both because of his higher salary for matching purposes, and his higher potential to be an impact player and step in at a position of need for them. 

The problem with building the trade around Green is that, if he doesn't really impress in the first half of the season, to the point where he looks like a bargain at $9 million per year, you are going to really have to blow Atlanta away with other assets to make it worth taking on his salary...and I am not sure the C's can afford to give up all their good young assets for a rental of Smith.  Or, if Green impresses, then I am not sure Danny is going to jump at giving up Green on what could be a bargain contract, along with other assets, for a rental, and the right to overpay Josh Smith this summer.

I think the C's made sense as a trade partner for the Hawks last year, but unfortunately the Hawks were not ready to deal, and they lost that window.

There is a chance a sign and trade could be worked out this summer, once the Hawks have worked out what they are going to do with their cap space, and realize they don't want to lose Smith for nothing.  But right now, I just don't think there is a deal that makes sense.

I personally expect to see Smith finish the year in LA (based around Gasol for Smith, to entice Howard to resign in LA), or perhaps Houston.

Way I see it , by the end of the year, Green is either gonna make Danny look like prophetic genius ( making his value even higher ) or as one of the poorer deals to come down in Boston in long time.

Really the pressure is one Jeff Green. He has his health, and surrounding decent team and opportunity to TURN IT ON.  NO DURRANT to hog the ball and fame.  His time to produce and become the best he can or drop down to a bench role journeyman to wander around the league.

Agree, completely.  But it makes him a really difficult guy to trade at least at this point. 

And I would say the same thing about Bradley.  He would be tough to trade now, because he hasn't shown enough to build a whole lot of value around the league.  So, what you would get for him, would be worth a lot less than what he could possibly turn into. 

[Bankshot]

we don't have enough to trade for Josh Smith.

Bradley + Bass + Sullinger + Melo + multiple 1st rounders isn't going to get it done.

3rd team would have to be involved in that trade scenario

 They would probably be interested in Green if he keeps on playing like he has these preseason games . Probably would take Green, Sullinger and picks , but I would just wait to the offseason to do a s+ t if that's the case.

I probably might consider keeping Jeff Green instead then if all else is constant.

I think Green should be off limits.  I would like a core of Rondo, Green and Smith.

[CelticG1]

I like Smith but he is not someone I want to pay at close to max money at all. He would be a good 3rd or a great 4th guy on a team but to ask a guy like that to be sketch building block of the future isn't worth it. Id rather be patient and see what else shales put over the next couple years.

If its a matter if getting over the hump for this year and put us in a much better position to win it this year than im all for it but Smith is definitely not someone I am interested in to be the next guy to Rondo to lead the new Celtics in the coming years

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It's not a good idea to dismantle the most talented and balanced roster in the league and my lifetime for one player that I think is really a sub-star, not a superstar.

JGreen is a sub-star, and I wouldn't trade his versatility for Smith straight up today.

Sully is looking like he might be at least sub-star, but it's probably not worth trading him for an established player unless we need it to win now, which we don't.  So I don't trade Sully.

Bradley:  a role player that is a difference maker.  He's not filler; he's a key piece that every champion has on the roster.

So...what do you trade?  Bass and Lee, who were just signed/convinced to come here?  No.  Not this season, not at the deadline even, though I think they are the two most expendable once Bradley is back and Sully is up to speed.  Not even if Atlanta was silly enough to take that plus picks and prospects.

Folks, I enjoy the trade scenario chatter, but this isn't a team to discuss breaking up before it gets out of the gate.

It is also a team that isn't worth anointing before they get out of the gate either.

I think your opinion really underrates Josh Smith here. Jeff Green to this point in his career has shown himself to be an inferior offensive and defensive player to Josh Smith, and the gap on defense is glaringly wide as of this point in time.

Your chemistry concerns I also feel are ignoring a critical element, and that's the fact that aside from KG and Pierce, Josh Smith likely already has a better rapport with Rondo than anyone else currently on the roster.

And if we were able to pull off a trade like:

Boston Trades: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Fab Melo, 1st

Atlanta Trades: Josh Smith, Kyle Korver

It would be an absolute homerun.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm under rating Smith.  But he seems like a complementary star player, not the center piece, or even a particularly versatile piece.

Not that Green is at all a center piece, but he is very talented, versatile, athletic, and might himself be a home run at a SF, where he wasn't at PF.  And no matter who else comes around, JGreen will still be able to help the team.  He's a great asset to have, truly he is.

I think Rondo and Green are both great pieces for the present/future.  Perfect.  Smith would give us another really great piece, but not the piece we're lacking now (which is nothing) or a major piece of what we need in the future (we're set on Forwards with Green and Sully).

As far as the whole thing with being Rondo's pal and all that:  What has bringing in a player to appease a franchise star ever really worked out?  It's rhetorical, but really, more teams have screwed the pooch by letting the players do the GM's job.

[sofutomygaha]

I don't think we're being very serious yet. Let's really talk about Josh Smith scenarios.

1. Hawks, out of contention, trade Smith without a guarantee of extension.

The Hawks look like a playoff team to me, so I think that this is the least likely outcome. Still, injuries happen. In this scenario, the Hawks will take back whatever they can get of value from a contending team (or a desperate team who thinks it can resign him, or both). The Celtics would be in the mix, here, because they would expect to resign him.

Possibilties:
1a. Smith (and garbage?) to Celtics for some combination of Bass, Sullinger, Bradley, and picks.

1b. Smith to Denver (scary...) for some combination of Koufos, Mozgov, and Chandler. (Hawks want Faried. Nugs say no)

1c.  Smith to Minnesota for Derrick Williams and JJ Barea/other

1d. Smith +filler to San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson


2. Hawks extend-and-trade Smith or trade him to a team that he agrees to extend with

In this scenario, the Hawks might get more back. As far as I can tell, the suitors look similar to case (1). There are some interesting non-contenders who could get in on it, but this is tricky because it will take either some seriously valuable players on medium-sized contracts or some big expiring contracts to make it work.

2a. to Cleveland for some combination involving Varajao and Thompson/Waiters

2b. to New Orleans for some combination involving Ryan Anderson and Austin Rivers

2c. to Houston, for Kevin Martin's expiring deal and a rookie smorgasbord

2d. to Detroit, for Maggette and other expirings and either Drummond or Monroe

3. Smith takes the max/near-max offer of his choice in the off season

I think Smith will be too choosy to extend with any of the (2) options, and I think the Hawks will ride him as deep into the playoffs as they can. That leaves this as the most likely scenario. It's also the most boring. Ho hum. So, who has cap space?

3a. the Jazz, for whom Smith would be an upgrade over Jefferson or Millsap
3b. the Wiz...
3c. the Cavs...
3d. the Bobcats...
3e. the Pistons
3f. the Bucks
3g. the Rockets
3h. the Celtics if KG and PP both retire.

It looks to me like it's the Rockets or the Jazz, here. If Smith doesn't like these options, we're left to speculate about what kind of discount he's willing to take or what kinds of salary dump trades the 2013 off-season might hold. If you ask me, though, most likely scenario has him signing with the Rockets, where he and Jeremy Lin could make the foundation for a very good defensive team and a beautiful pick-and-roll. The Rockets also have so much cap room that they could potentially woo him by letting him pick another teammate.

[indeedproceed]

It's not a good idea to dismantle the most talented and balanced roster in the league and my lifetime for one player that I think is really a sub-star, not a superstar.

JGreen is a sub-star, and I wouldn't trade his versatility for Smith straight up today.

Sully is looking like he might be at least sub-star, but it's probably not worth trading him for an established player unless we need it to win now, which we don't.  So I don't trade Sully.

Bradley:  a role player that is a difference maker.  He's not filler; he's a key piece that every champion has on the roster.

So...what do you trade?  Bass and Lee, who were just signed/convinced to come here?  No.  Not this season, not at the deadline even, though I think they are the two most expendable once Bradley is back and Sully is up to speed.  Not even if Atlanta was silly enough to take that plus picks and prospects.

Folks, I enjoy the trade scenario chatter, but this isn't a team to discuss breaking up before it gets out of the gate.

It is also a team that isn't worth anointing before they get out of the gate either.

I think your opinion really underrates Josh Smith here. Jeff Green to this point in his career has shown himself to be an inferior offensive and defensive player to Josh Smith, and the gap on defense is glaringly wide as of this point in time.

Your chemistry concerns I also feel are ignoring a critical element, and that's the fact that aside from KG and Pierce, Josh Smith likely already has a better rapport with Rondo than anyone else currently on the roster.

And if we were able to pull off a trade like:

Boston Trades: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Fab Melo, 1st

Atlanta Trades: Josh Smith, Kyle Korver

It would be an absolute homerun.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm under rating Smith.  But he seems like a complementary star player, not the center piece, or even a particularly versatile piece.

He is a complementary star player, but that's okay when you have two other top-20 guys on your team in KG and Rondo. As far as versatility goes, he's not any more or less versatile than a guy like Jeff Green or Shawn Marion. He has a pretty clearly defined role and set of skills.

Not that Green is at all a center piece, but he is very talented, versatile, athletic, and might himself be a home run at a SF, where he wasn't at PF.

This is true.

And no matter who else comes around, JGreen will still be able to help the team.  He's a great asset to have, truly he is.

This is probably true, but its a little early to say with and kind of certainty.

I think Rondo and Green are both great pieces for the present/future.

Agree.

Perfect.

Disagree. I think its stuff like this that leads us down a kool-aid flavored path. They aren't perfect players, even remotely so. For Jeff Green to be a perfect piece for the present/future, he'd be a better shooter and more assertive offensive player. For Rondo to be a perfect piece for the present/future, he'd also be a better shooter and a consistently dominant player on both sides of the ball, without the small mental lapses that currently seem to plague him, especially during the regular season. They're both great assets to have, but far from perfect.

Smith would give us another really great piece, but not the piece we're lacking now (which is nothing) or a major piece of what we need in the future (we're set on Forwards with Green and Sully).

Josh Smith is an active rim defender and has the bulk and size to body up LeBron James. He's also more athletic than any forward on our roster up to and including Jeff Green. He's a dominant help defender and a difference maker on that side, and on a team with only one legit rim-defender, that's a hole we surely have.

And in terms of 'set in the future', there is nothing wrong with Sullinger as a prospect at the 4, but that doesn't mean he's the answer long-term. We don't even know how he plays against NBA-level competition, we don't know how his back will hold up, we don't know a lot of stuff. Josh Smith is a known quantity, and of an age with our best player, lining up their prime years nicely.

As far as the whole thing with being Rondo's pal and all that:  What has bringing in a player to appease a franchise star ever really worked out?  It's rhetorical, but really, more teams have screwed the pooch by letting the players do the GM's job.

He's Rondo's pal and former teammate. I agree bringing on 'friends' to appease players hasn't turned out very well historically (Jarret Jack in NOH, BBD in ORL, etc..), but I don't see why it should be a complete non-factor. You're bringing in a guy who has played with Rondo, whose skill set compliments his, and who Rondo already has a great rapport with. Its not letting a player dictate roster moves for a personal agenda, its factoring in personalities when assembling your team.   

[mctyson]

we don't have enough to trade for Josh Smith.

Bradley + Bass + Sullinger + Melo + multiple 1st rounders isn't going to get it done.

We are talking about a player who will not sign an extension.  Most teams won't even attempt a trade with in that scenario.  It is the same reason teams wouldn't touch a Dwight Howard rental.

If Atlanta turned down a Bradley + Bass + Sullinger + Melo + multiple 1st rounders deal for a guy they aren't resigning anyway (or at least have no guarantee they are resigning him) --- Danny Ferry would be fired.

[Chris]

He is a complementary star player, but that's okay when you have two other top-20 guys on your team in KG and Rondo. As far as versatility goes, he's not any more or less versatile than a guy like Jeff Green or Shawn Marion. He has a pretty clearly defined role and set of skills.

This is the part that gets me about Smith.  I LOVE him playing PF with Rondo at PG and KG at center (and throw in Bradley at SG and Pierce at SF).  I am not sure its a championship, but it gives you a shot, and it would be the most intense defensive team we may ever see. 

The problem come with the future.  I think counting on KG playing, and being productive beyond another year or two might be pushing our luck.  So, then you are rebuilding around Rondo and Smith.  Two great defenders who may hurt each other offensively since they both struggle shooting.  And you will have Smith eating up a stars portion of the cap, which will make it harder to replace KG (or Pierce for that matter).

I was on board when we were talking about getting a rental of Smith for a year, to see how he fit in, while giving up minimal assets (say, Ray and a couple picks).  But, I am not thrilled with what it will likely take to get him now, and what it will take to resign him. 

...and I haven't even touched on the idea that Smith (let alone Rondo) relies heavily on his athleticism, and those guys tend to burn out quicker than the more skilled players.

[mctyson]

I have said this before but I will state it again: two scenarios lead to Josh Smith on the Celtics, and only 2:

1) We get to the trade deadline this season and there is a serious structural issue with the team, preventing it from being a championship contender this year and next year.  This mainly includes major, reconstructive injuries to KG or Rondo.  I do not think losing Pierce will kill this team, but it would set it back far enough that the probability of beating Miami goes to about 5%.  Without KG or Rondo it is 0%

This would be similar to the "blow it up" scenario of last year - getting to the deadline and knowing, almost for a fact, that this team's chances for a championship this year (and most likely next year) are gone.  I do not believe Danny would trade Rondo but instead he would continue to build around him.  Smith would be a logical replacement at the PF position.

2) We get to the deadline this year, and Jeff Green is playing out of his mind.  Our team is doing well but not quite as well as we'd like and it seems that we need one more major defensive/rebounding presence inside to win it all.  We somehow get Atlanta to agree to a Jeff Green-centered package (because, again, he is playing out of his mind) and we nab Smith in return.

[Chris]

If Atlanta turned down a Bradley + Bass + Sullinger + Melo + multiple 1st rounders deal for a guy they aren't resigning anyway (or at least have no guarantee they are resigning him) --- Danny Ferry would be fired.

Depends what he thinks of those young guys, and what the "multiple first rounders" are. 

Bradley has 1 1/2 years of nothing, and a couple months of solid play (great defense, average at best offense) on his resume, as well as now 2 shoulder surgeries.  Not necessarily a blue chipper.

Melo is a major eye of the beholder prospect.  The measureables are great, but he has huge questions about whether he will ever learn to play the game.  Probably not much value right now.

Sully probably has some value, but his injury questions definitely hurt it.

And Bass is probably a net negative for a team that has spent the last few months working hard to get rid of any longterm contracts.

I don't think its a no-brainer for them.  Especially if you have other teams who could offer either more cap relief and young guys (Houston), or a potential star center to compliment Horford (LA).