CB Draft Finals: (1) Mavericks vs. (1) Bulls

[Who]

I had Jrue Holiday ranked 10th at PG last year. Which is roundabout where I'd have Varejao ranked at either PF or center.

So I include them both as low level stars or above average starters. Whichever description fits better. Same boat.

[Roy H.]

So, for all the folks salivating on IP's jock, did anybody actually read his strategy?

He doesn't have one.  It's literally almost all nonsense.  He doesn't even indicate what lineup he's going to play.  It's just "my guys are super-cool awesome, and Dallas' guys suck, yo".

Dallas is starting the game with:

Varejao / Brand
Lebron
Green
Thabo
Irving

Rather than do the "Player X is better than Player Y" game (which is nonsensical) let's talk about how these teams match up.

At the center position, IP is presumably starting Chris Bosh.  I say that because Brendan Haywood averaged 3.3 points per game in the playoffs, and Tiego Splitter averaged 5.8 points.  Greg Popovich, the best coach in the NBA, limited Splitter to 13 minutes per game in the playoffs because, frankly, he's not ready for primetime.

So, it's Bosh vs. Varejao and/or Brand.  In IP's bizarro world, he'll argue that that matchup favors him.  Yo, Chris Bosh is a bigger name, y'alls!!  But see, in the real world, Chris Bosh is the big man equivalent of Ru Paul.  He can't defend the paint.  He can't rebound the ball.  He can't muscle stronger players.

Brand's defense prompted Chris Bosh to shake his head and groan that the 33-year-old is "like a tree stump." I

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Bosh can't move Brand in the post, and he can't muscle Varejao, either.  Did you know that when Brand and Bosh last met up this season in the playoffs, Brand averaged 16 points on 55% shooting?  That Brand outproduced Bosh in 3 out of the 5 games?  No?  I wonder why IP didn't say that? 

The Mavericks are going to control the paint, because Bosh can't do it. 

That brings us to Lebron.  I guess the argument is that somehow, Paul Pierce is going to be able to defend Lebron James.  Lebron against Pierce in the 2012 Playoffs:

33.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.85 assists 52.7% shooting

Keep in mind, that's with Pierce having KG and Rajon Rondo to assist him.  Here, he has Thad Young (or Chris "Ru Paul" Bosh) and Jrue Holiday.  Lebron is going to explode.  And yes, the assist numbers above look out of sorts for Lebron, but that's mostly because two guys in particular either weren't playing due to injury, or were playing poorly:



Lebron is the type of player that can completely dominate a game, even beyond his impressive box scores.  He can literally defend any position on the court, as he'll have a strength and/or quickness advantage over just about anybody. 

In this matchup, Lebron allows us to totally dominate the front court.  Chicago can't score on a three man rotation of Varejao / Brand / Lebron, and Chicago will get killed on the boards there, too.  More boards = more transition = total annihilation. 

Seriously, people think that a Chris Bosh / Thad Young front court could work against a team with Lebron James and Kyrie Irving, both of whom will be getting to the hoop at will?  Bosh will be fouled out in 20 minutes.

[StartOrien]

I'd go further and say I'd put a handsome sum down on Kyrie Irving being the second best player in this matchup come June.

[Roy H.]

I think Chicago has the advantage with star talent. For Dallas to win, I think it has to be through balance and depth.

Wade, Pierce, Bosh and Jrue > LeBron, Kyrie and Varejao

Jrue Holiday is not a star.  Elton Brand and Jeff Green are both more valuable pieces than he is.

I don't think I could disagree with that more.  Nobody knows what you will be getting out of green next year.  And i just think Holliday is better than brand at this point

Oh, well.  I guess you're wrong.

How many Sixers games did you watch last year?  Were you impressed by Jrue Holiday's across-the-board regression?  And did you miss Elton Brand's elite year as the anchor of Philly's defense?

[wdleehi]

I can't get past that Wade had to ride Lebron's coattails this past playoffs. 


And because the Bulls do not have a large PF starting, the Mavs can easily shift Lebron over to defend Wade, Green to defend Young.  (Green is fine here defending a small PF) 


Take Wade out and I think the series is over. 

[ronaldo943]

If you think Jrue Holiday is going to continue to shoot 78% from 3PT, please, vote Chicago.  Well, at least until I point out some equal statistical aberration.

The thing is if Irving would have played that good you would have brought it up the reason why i think chicago is better is because their big 3 are use to sharing the ball, and yea Kyrie is great but then again he was playing for a bad team while Jrue's team was a playoff team.

[Kane3387]

I can't get past that Wade had to ride Lebron's coattails this past playoffs. 


And because the Bulls do not have a large PF starting, the Mavs can easily shift Lebron over to defend Wade, Green to defend Young.  (Green is fine here defending a small PF) 


Take Wade out and I think the series is over.

That's why I think it is worth considering putting James on Wade and Thabo on Pierce. I think those defensive assignments change the complexion of the series completely.

[Roy H.]

I'm going to answer some questions, and then enjoy the rest of my afternoon and evening with my family.  I'm not going to waste time arguing when some many folks have their minds made up and have decided to just spout conventional wisdom.

Roy,

From a quick glance it appears that Elton Brand has struggled defensively against Chris Bosh while Andy V has had some measure of success. 

With that in mind, will we see a big shift in minutes for those 2 from the Portland matchup to the Bulls matchup? What's the Bosh plan?

They'll both play a lot.  Varejao will start, but as noted above, both play to Bosh's weaknesses.  Chris Bosh is not a physical player, and he's not a post player.  In the real life playoffs, Brand outplayed him in 3 out of 5 games. 

I'm calling in the Defense for the Dallas Mavericks to the podium.

Mr. GM.

Prosecution is leaning towards Chicago, the prosecution suggests their lineup is a little bit more talented than the Defense, and might be enough to beat them. What evidence can you provide to dismiss this?

It's not about "talent".  It's not about who has the bigger names.  It's about what team can play together as a unit.

Do you think that Chris Bosh and Thad Young can defend the paint against Lebron?  Do you think they can control rebounds?  If you give Dallas a free path to the hoop and a rebounding advantage, this series will be over in four games.

That's where Chicago gets killed.  In reality, the Bulls would lose a series to the Mavericks, but they'd also lose to CB Draft teams like the Blazers and the Lakers.  They can't control the middle.

Lebron James covers Dwayne Wade.  Lebron would dominate that matchup.  Take Wade away, and Chicago crumbles, especially since Chris Bosh won't be getting anywhere against Varejao and Brand.  (Again, Bosh describes Brand as a "tree stump" who can't be moved on defense.) 

Do you think Paul Pierce is the answer, either on offense or defense?  Celtics fans who are being honest with themselves should know the answer to that one.  Pierce shot below 50% in 17 out of 19 playoff games.  He can't be relied upon.  Jrue Holiday shot 41% in the playoffs. 

Do inefficient teams win?  Do soft teams win?  No, neither does.  If you want to take an honest look at this series, it's clear the Mavericks win. 

I am, however, fine with folks wanting to give IP a wedding present.  He deserves it, inferior basketball team or not.  Peace out, folks.  See you in 2014.

[Kane3387]

If you think Jrue Holiday is going to continue to shoot 78% from 3PT, please, vote Chicago.  Well, at least until I point out some equal statistical aberration.

The thing is if Irving would have played that good you would have brought it up the reason why i think chicago is better is because their big 3 are use to sharing the ball, and yea Kyrie is great but then again he was playing for a bad team while Jrue's team was a playoff team.

The whole paying for a bad team vs good team is really a catch 22.

"He put up numbers but his team sucked so how great was his impact?"
"He put up numbers but look at who he was playing with and how great his supporting cast was. If he isn't playing with X and Y then what do his numbers look like?"

I wouldn't fall into that line if thinking. It is too easy to mold and manipulate an argument to support your claim b/c it is "your claim."

[dark_lord]

submitted my vote....

bulls


good series tho

[jgod213]

Sooo is this it for the arguements then?  Feel kinda jipped for spending so much time yesterday battling it out only to see the finals end after 2 opening statements.

regahhhdless, i'm gonna hold onto my vote for another hour or two.

[Roy H.]

Sooo is this it for the arguements then?  Feel kinda jipped for spending so much time yesterday battling it out only to see the finals end after 2 opening statements.

regahhhdless, i'm gonna hold onto my vote for another hour or two.

Yeah.  I learned a long time ago that when the case is over, quit arguing.

Here, folks have made up their minds already.  The fact that Dallas has received a total of two questions all day, but that everyone is throwing in for Chicago, shows that trying to convince folks is an exercise in futility.

Chicago doesn't have the better team, but they do have bigger names overall, and they've got a more sympathetic GM.  That's all it takes in this game.  I give a tip of the hat to those who stayed open-minded and who actually tried to appreciate what this series would look like on the court. 

Ru Paul has his second championship.  This time he didn't ride Lebron's coattails, he rode the wave of sympathy for IP and the crest of voter apathy, where more than 50% of GMs couldn't even be bothered to cast votes. 

[ronaldo943]

Roy, I like your sig, JK did everyone vote for IP? Or why are you already surrendering?

[Roy H.]

Roy, I like your sig, JK did everyone vote for IP? Or why are you already surrendering?

I'm done.  If Edgar wants to waste his time arguing, he can, but for so many folks to make up their mind based upon 1) nonsensical basketball "analysis" and/or 2) clear bias, without asking a single question, is fairly frustrating, and isn't fun.

I can respect folks who are honest, and say that they're voting for IP because of legitimate basketball reasons.  I can respect those who tell me they'll never vote for a Roy H. team, because they don't like me personally (there are at least two such GMs in this draft).  What I can't respect are folks who vote against me without reading my view of the series, or giving this more than 2 minutes of thought.

Chicago is not a better team than Dallas, and they wouldn't win in a series. 

[Kane3387]

In all honesty these are great points.

Do you think that Chris Bosh and Thad Young can defend the paint against Lebron?  Do you think they can control rebounds?  If you give Dallas a free path to the hoop and a rebounding advantage, this series will be over in four games.

That's where Chicago gets killed.  In reality, the Bulls would lose a series to the Mavericks, but they'd also lose to CB Draft teams like the Blazers and the Lakers.  They can't control the middle.

Lebron James covers Dwayne Wade.  Lebron would dominate that matchup.  Take Wade away, and Chicago crumbles, especially since Chris Bosh won't be getting anywhere against Varejao and Brand.  (Again, Bosh describes Brand as a "tree stump" who can't be moved on defense.) 

Do you think Paul Pierce is the answer, either on offense or defense?  Celtics fans who are being honest with themselves should know the answer to that one.  Pierce shot below 50% in 17 out of 19 playoff games.  He can't be relied upon.  Jrue Holiday shot 41% in the playoffs. 

Do inefficient teams win?  Do soft teams win?  No, neither does

.

I think based off of the Lebron  James and Dwyane Wade I saw last season that Lebron would almost completely take him out of the series. Pierce, Holiday, and Bosh would be asked to win the series offensively.

Paul Pierce Ortg went from 116 to 106 last year. I hope he is not on that much of a decline, but that's a very significant drop. Thabo has a defensive rating of 104 however. It's not that great but I do think he would make Pierce work harder then most defenders to get his points.

I will agree with some that I think Irving will be ahead of Jrue by this time next season by a good amount. The experience he gained from his first year in the NBA should only benefit him. If he is going to make it to the finals then he is playoff tested and neither he nor Jrue have played for an NBA title so I can't give either a nod about playing better on the biggest stage.

I think Bosh is the best Big Man in the series, but he won't dominate. He will get his 18-20 points on 12-14 shots. He won't get much inside and he will only get about 8 boards a game. I think his lack of physicality hurts him in this series because Dallas will play physical. It also hurts that he is not playing along side a physical big.

Ultimately I think putting James on Wade is the difference. Dallas can take away Chicago's best player and Chicago can not take away Dallas's best player.