Jeff Green - 2nd worst contract of the summer

[greenpride32]

I'm not sure what type of expectations people have for Jeff Green, but for 3 years as a starter getting regular minutes for OKC he basically averaged 15.5 points, 6 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal per game.  All of this while playing along side two guys who always have the ball in Westbrook and Durant.  A player putting up these type of numbers does not get paid $5-6m; that would be a steal.

The main issue is with his contract is the length and whether his health may be of concern.  As far as past productivity goes and what you would expect from him going forward the dollar amount is spot on.

[mmmmm]

the talent difference between Green/Pietrus is pretty big IMO....green is much more versatile whereas pietrus is 3 and D...without Green we have NO way to matchup against Miami when they go small.

overpay or not, Ainges moves basically have said we are going all in the next 2-3 years. its not like we could just give that $9million we are giving to Green to someone else, or keep it as free space

I don't think Green is that versatile.  If anything, he's shown that he shouldn't play PF at all because his lack of rebounding and defense as a big, coupled with his inability to take advantage offensively, makes him a negative at PF. Thinking of how he'd look as a SF, imagine the guys he's compared to, Granger or Gay as PFs.  Defensively they might struggle although I think they would rebound better but offensively, they would be better going against PFs.  Green's inability to exploit PFs is a huge red flag about his scoring potential against SFs.

My point about Green is that 9 million a season is a heck of a lot of money to pay to a role player.  And as long as Pierce is here at SF and Terry is the lead scorer off the bench, Green is a role player.  Paying Green, Terry, Bass and Lee 25 million combined leaves very little room to add anything for the next two seasons.  If Green doesn't work out, they might be stuck.

Actually, based on his numbers, Green's 'problems' at PF isn't offensive.  He has so much speed and hops that his offensive production against PFs has been fine.  He just doesn't have the mass to defend bigger PFs who can back him down in the post.

Even with that, he's easily more versatile than Pietrus because Green at least _CAN_ play the 4 when the matchups are favorable and he is definitely a much more versatile scorer and defender from the 3 spot.

[ballin]

Again, I'm seeing a lot of nonsensical arguments on here. In addition to the arguments I've already pointed out, we've got:

1. But we had no choice, because other teams would have paid him more!

Uh, yeah, actually we did have a choice. You can always let a player walk as opposed to overpaying for him. You don't build a great team by overpaying role players. It is absolutely IMMATERIAL what other teams would have paid him or would have offered him in terms of whether or not this is a good contract. If 29 other teams wanted to pay, say Brandon Bass $15 million a year, does that mean OMG PAY HIM 15 MILLION WE HAVE NO CHOICE!? Of course it doesn't. And so it goes for Jeff Green. I could give a hoot what other teams supposedly did or did not offer him. Stop arguing about it.

2. "We need to wait and see how Jeff Green plays to decide if this was a good contract or not"

Uh, no, no we don't. If Minnesota had stolen Stiemsma from us by offering a maximum contract, would we have to "wait and see how he plays" before judging how ridiculous that contract was? Obviously not. That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance. A rational person will match the contract to what the anticipated production will be, based on past performance, and then pay the player accordingly. Instead of being rational, Ainge went for a gamble that's substantially likely to backfire, as the odds of JG playing up to his contract amount are slim to none. You can, and should, judge contracts at the time they were made.

And this is a bad contract.

[lightspeed5]

Again, I'm seeing a lot of nonsensical arguments on here. In addition to the arguments I've already pointed out, we've got:

1. But we had no choice, because other teams would have paid him more!

Uh, yeah, actually we did have a choice. You can always let a player walk as opposed to overpaying for him. You don't build a great team by overpaying role players. It is absolutely IMMATERIAL what other teams would have paid him or would have offered him in terms of whether or not this is a good contract. If 29 other teams wanted to pay, say Brandon Bass $15 million a year, does that mean OMG PAY HIM 15 MILLION WE HAVE NO CHOICE!? Of course it doesn't. And so it goes for Jeff Green. I could give a hoot what other teams supposedly did or did not offer him. Stop arguing about it.

2. "We need to wait and see how Jeff Green plays to decide if this was a good contract or not"

Uh, no, no we don't. If Minnesota had stolen Stiemsma from us by offering a maximum contract, would we have to "wait and see how he plays" before judging how ridiculous that contract was? Obviously not. That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance. A rational person will match the contract to what the anticipated production will be, based on past performance, and then pay the player accordingly. Instead of being rational, Ainge went for a gamble that's substantially likely to backfire, as the odds of JG playing up to his contract amount are slim to none. You can, and should, judge contracts at the time they were made.

And this is a bad contract.

you would let one of the only players who can defend lebron walk? who would you replace him with? exactly. he is huge to us in terms of depth, and 9 mill is nothing.


"That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance"

noone does this in the league. its all market value based on potential of a player. Green's ceiling is a multi-faceted small forward with multiple moves, great defense, can play the 4, and someone who can guard the lebrons of the world. there are about 3 other players like green in the league

[BballTim]

Again, I'm seeing a lot of nonsensical arguments on here. In addition to the arguments I've already pointed out, we've got:

1. But we had no choice, because other teams would have paid him more!

Uh, yeah, actually we did have a choice. You can always let a player walk as opposed to overpaying for him. You don't build a great team by overpaying role players. It is absolutely IMMATERIAL what other teams would have paid him or would have offered him in terms of whether or not this is a good contract. If 29 other teams wanted to pay, say Brandon Bass $15 million a year, does that mean OMG PAY HIM 15 MILLION WE HAVE NO CHOICE!? Of course it doesn't. And so it goes for Jeff Green. I could give a hoot what other teams supposedly did or did not offer him. Stop arguing about it.

  First of all, we're not trying to build a great team. We're trying to augment a title contender. With our cap situation we didn't have that many ways to acquire a player. Our choice was to re-sign Green or let him walk and either sign a player for MLE money (taking Lee or, more likely, Terry off the roster) or for the vet min or BAE. So the choice was to either (likely) overpay him or go into the season with a weaker rostern  and lessen our chances to contend for a title.

  Unless your plan is to go into the season without a decent backup sf or replace Terry with whatever backup sf you could get for the MLE then you need to sign Jeff Green. In that case, it does matter what other teams were willing to pay him.

[Moranis]

Again, I'm seeing a lot of nonsensical arguments on here. In addition to the arguments I've already pointed out, we've got:

1. But we had no choice, because other teams would have paid him more!

Uh, yeah, actually we did have a choice. You can always let a player walk as opposed to overpaying for him. You don't build a great team by overpaying role players. It is absolutely IMMATERIAL what other teams would have paid him or would have offered him in terms of whether or not this is a good contract. If 29 other teams wanted to pay, say Brandon Bass $15 million a year, does that mean OMG PAY HIM 15 MILLION WE HAVE NO CHOICE!? Of course it doesn't. And so it goes for Jeff Green. I could give a hoot what other teams supposedly did or did not offer him. Stop arguing about it.

2. "We need to wait and see how Jeff Green plays to decide if this was a good contract or not"

Uh, no, no we don't. If Minnesota had stolen Stiemsma from us by offering a maximum contract, would we have to "wait and see how he plays" before judging how ridiculous that contract was? Obviously not. That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance. A rational person will match the contract to what the anticipated production will be, based on past performance, and then pay the player accordingly. Instead of being rational, Ainge went for a gamble that's substantially likely to backfire, as the odds of JG playing up to his contract amount are slim to none. You can, and should, judge contracts at the time they were made.

And this is a bad contract.

you would let one of the only players who can defend lebron walk? who would you replace him with? exactly. he is huge to us in terms of depth, and 9 mill is nothing.


"That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance"

noone does this in the league. its all market value based on potential of a player. Green's ceiling is a multi-faceted small forward with multiple moves, great defense, can play the 4, and someone who can guard the lebrons of the world. there are about 3 other players like green in the league

No one can defend Lebron James.  You don't pay someone 9 million dollars a year to guard one player on an opposing team that no one can effectively guard anyway. 

You also don't pay your backup SF (who can also play some at PF) 9 million a year for 4 years (a 1 year contract would have been understandable, but not 4).  It is a terrible move from a cap standpoint and future cap flexibility. 

I believe Jeff Green is now the highest paid non-starter in the NBA.  He isn't that good and is not worth that money under any circumstances.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Again, I'm seeing a lot of nonsensical arguments on here. In addition to the arguments I've already pointed out, we've got:

1. But we had no choice, because other teams would have paid him more!

Uh, yeah, actually we did have a choice. You can always let a player walk as opposed to overpaying for him. You don't build a great team by overpaying role players. It is absolutely IMMATERIAL what other teams would have paid him or would have offered him in terms of whether or not this is a good contract. If 29 other teams wanted to pay, say Brandon Bass $15 million a year, does that mean OMG PAY HIM 15 MILLION WE HAVE NO CHOICE!? Of course it doesn't. And so it goes for Jeff Green. I could give a hoot what other teams supposedly did or did not offer him. Stop arguing about it.

2. "We need to wait and see how Jeff Green plays to decide if this was a good contract or not"

Uh, no, no we don't. If Minnesota had stolen Stiemsma from us by offering a maximum contract, would we have to "wait and see how he plays" before judging how ridiculous that contract was? Obviously not. That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance. A rational person will match the contract to what the anticipated production will be, based on past performance, and then pay the player accordingly. Instead of being rational, Ainge went for a gamble that's substantially likely to backfire, as the odds of JG playing up to his contract amount are slim to none. You can, and should, judge contracts at the time they were made.

And this is a bad contract.

you would let one of the only players who can defend lebron walk? who would you replace him with? exactly. he is huge to us in terms of depth, and 9 mill is nothing.


"That's because you judge a contract's worth at the time it's made based on a player's prior performance"

noone does this in the league. its all market value based on potential of a player. Green's ceiling is a multi-faceted small forward with multiple moves, great defense, can play the 4, and someone who can guard the lebrons of the world. there are about 3 other players like green in the league

No one can defend Lebron James.  You don't pay someone 9 million dollars a year to guard one player on an opposing team that no one can effectively guard anyway. 

You also don't pay your backup SF (who can also play some at PF) 9 million a year for 4 years (a 1 year contract would have been understandable, but not 4).  It is a terrible move from a cap standpoint and future cap flexibility. 

I believe Jeff Green is now the highest paid non-starter in the NBA.  He isn't that good and is not worth that money under any circumstances.

You're throwing terms like "cap standpoint" and "future cap flexibility" too freely.

[Interceptor]

No one can defend Lebron James.  You don't pay someone 9 million dollars a year to guard one player on an opposing team that no one can effectively guard anyway.

Why not? Miami is what stands between us and a championship, and we need an answer to their small-ball lineup. Jeff doesn't have to put LBJ in a phone booth, he just has to slow him down a little bit, which he has the size to do. There are now three people on this team who can credibly defend LBJ.

You also don't pay your backup SF (who can also play some at PF) 9 million a year for 4 years (a 1 year contract would have been understandable, but not 4).  It is a terrible move from a cap standpoint and future cap flexibility.

Why not? Jeff Green is not just a back-up SF, he's a starting caliber SF that can also play PF. That means that it's a tradeable contract, and if we keep him he could be our starting SF of the future as Pierce winds down.

It's only really terrible for "cap standpoint" if the fourth year is not a team option. We are pay so much money to other people (Bass, KG, Pierce, Terry, Lee, Rondo) that, guess what, we have no cap room for 2-3 years anyway regardless of JG's contract.

I believe Jeff Green is now the highest paid non-starter in the NBA.  He isn't that good and is not worth that money under any circumstances.

You're just cheesed that he's getting paid 9M to start games on the bench, not that he's a bad player, not that we don't need what he brings, not that his contract is an albatross on the trading block. That's Wyc's problem, not Danny's.

[Moranis]

I believe Jeff Green is now the highest paid non-starter in the NBA.  He isn't that good and is not worth that money under any circumstances.

You're just cheesed that he's getting paid 9M to start games on the bench, not that he's a bad player, not that we don't need what he brings, not that his contract is an albatross on the trading block. That's Wyc's problem, not Danny's.

No.  Jeff Green is at absolute best the 5th best player on this team (rondo, kg, pierce, and bradley).  Bass is probably better than him also and frankly Terry or Lee might be better than him.  It would be one thing if he was on the bench to start the game, but was clearly a better player than many of the starters (like James Harden who is OKC's third best player).  Jeff Green is not that guy.  Jeff Green is being paid like he is the 3rd best player on the team, when he is not even close to the 3rd best player on the team. 

[kozlodoev]

I believe Jeff Green is now the highest paid non-starter in the NBA.  He isn't that good and is not worth that money under any circumstances.

You're just cheesed that he's getting paid 9M to start games on the bench, not that he's a bad player, not that we don't need what he brings, not that his contract is an albatross on the trading block. That's Wyc's problem, not Danny's.

No.  Jeff Green is at absolute best the 5th best player on this team (rondo, kg, pierce, and bradley).  Bass is probably better than him also and frankly Terry or Lee might be better than him.  It would be one thing if he was on the bench to start the game, but was clearly a better player than many of the starters (like James Harden who is OKC's third best player).  Jeff Green is not that guy.  Jeff Green is being paid like he is the 3rd best player on the team, when he is not even close to the 3rd best player on the team.

The jury is still out on whether Bradley is a better player than Green. Forgive me if I don't consider 20 good games conclusive evidence.

[Professor of Rondology]

I don't understand why people are so up in arms over this contract.  You'd think these people are footing the bill personally. 

This so-called albatross of a contract did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to hinder our ability to add impact players this off-season. Next off-season will be the same.  Add up the numbers and see for yourself. KG, Pierce, Rondo, Bass, Lee, Terry, Bradley, Sully, Melo, 2013 1st rounder X: all told that is more than 60 million already on the books.  Once you fill out the roster with role players/depth guys there is no room to add any marquee free agents.

So when Danny had the opportunity to lock up a player as talented as JG without giving anything up, he took it.  Yes, the dollar amount is a little shocking, initially, but once you look at the details this was a no-brainer.  We needed a wing who can take the reigns from Pierce as he continues his decline, and Jeff Green was far and away the best option.

This was the best team Danny could put together. If you take away JG, the team is significantly worse. When it is noted that "cap flexibility" is barely effected at all moving forward, it should be obvious that this was the best move.  Hell, this might have been our ONLY option (which explains why the $ is there).

If one were to look at this contract in a void, without any context, then I could understand the complaints.  But when the details are examined, it becomes clear why the amount is what it is.
 
I have 2 questions for those who think we should have let JG walk...
a) What else could we have done?
b) Why would we be better off that way?

[Interceptor]

No.  Jeff Green is at absolute best the 5th best player on this team (rondo, kg, pierce, and bradley).  Bass is probably better than him also and frankly Terry or Lee might be better than him.  It would be one thing if he was on the bench to start the game, but was clearly a better player than many of the starters (like James Harden who is OKC's third best player).  Jeff Green is not that guy.  Jeff Green is being paid like he is the 3rd best player on the team, when he is not even close to the 3rd best player on the team.

Why do you care so much about this? There is no rule that says salaries need to match relative contribution. Is Pierce the best player on this team? Nope. Regardless of where Jeff Green fits on the pantheon of good players on this team, the value of his contract is relative to the league, not the Celtics. This is because it can be traded. Jeff Green could start for other NBA team, true story.

We're full of excellent players on bargain contracts (KG, Bradley, Rondo), which in my opinion is a problem that Doc and Ainge aren't going to be losing a lot of sleep over. Hell, that guy we used to have playing SG for us, made 10M/y and came off the bench for part of the end of the season. Were you hurling tomatoes at the organization then, too?

[Moranis]

No.  Jeff Green is at absolute best the 5th best player on this team (rondo, kg, pierce, and bradley).  Bass is probably better than him also and frankly Terry or Lee might be better than him.  It would be one thing if he was on the bench to start the game, but was clearly a better player than many of the starters (like James Harden who is OKC's third best player).  Jeff Green is not that guy.  Jeff Green is being paid like he is the 3rd best player on the team, when he is not even close to the 3rd best player on the team.

Why do you care so much about this? There is no rule that says salaries need to match relative contribution. Is Pierce the best player on this team? Nope. Regardless of where Jeff Green fits on the pantheon of good players on this team, the value of his contract is relative to the league, not the Celtics. This is because it can be traded. Jeff Green could start for other NBA team, true story.

We're full of excellent players on bargain contracts (KG, Bradley, Rondo), which in my opinion is a problem that Doc and Ainge aren't going to be losing a lot of sleep over. Hell, that guy we used to have playing SG for us, made 10M/y and came off the bench for part of the end of the season. Were you hurling tomatoes at the organization then, too?

Because his contract will stop the team from using the MLE next year, when you now we might actually need to add someone.  The Celtics will be a solid team this up coming season with a shot at the title, after that, not so much and with Green, Bass, etc. having huge money contracts, there will be no way for Boston to actually add impact players that could lead to a championship. 

You don't sign role players to massive contracts.  It is a good way to end up in perpetually mediocrity.

[Chris]

You don't sign role players to massive contracts.  It is a good way to end up in perpetually mediocrity.

And Danny believes this as well.  Which is why I don't think he looks at Green as a role player in the longterm.  I think he believes (right or wrong) that Green will be an impact player going forward.

[Moranis]

You don't sign role players to massive contracts.  It is a good way to end up in perpetually mediocrity.

And Danny believes this as well.  Which is why I don't think he looks at Green as a role player in the longterm.  I think he believes (right or wrong) that Green will be an impact player going forward.

He gave Bass a pretty big contract as well.  In addition, Lee and Terry were both given full MLE's (they play the same position) and he gave KG that 3rd year (when he will likely be a shell of himself). 

Danny had one of the strangest off seasons I've ever seen from him.  I just don't get the massive contracts he gave out to what will essentially be role players.