Celtics pursuing Josh Smith? (rumor)

[BballTim]

Smith's got age on his side but you could easily argue that if you put him on the Celts today he'd be their fourth best player.

You could definitely easily argue that, but I'm not sure it'd be very convincing. Josh Smith's best talent is his defense, and in that regard (according to advanced metrics) he's got everyone of the big 4 by a nice margin. He's also the best rebounder of the bunch, the most athletic, and as you said, he's got age on his side.

Basically, he's probably the worst offensive player of the bunch, all things being equal.

  Some advanced stats may show him to be better than Rondo/PP/KG by a nice margin, many will show him to be worse by quite a large margin, including how well he guards his opponent. You're pushing Smith because of his defense over two players who were first team all-defense last year and haven't dropped off from there. I'm comfortable with my argument.

Aside from opponent PER, which stats are you talking about?

  For starters on 82games you could look at things like opposing eFG%, or check out their defensive numbers on synergy sports. Smith is a very good defender, but the competition's pretty stiff among the players in question.

See that 82games number its just...just not an accurate representation. Or, at least it doesn't mean what its logical that it would me.

You'd see the number and think, "That's how well he defends other players at that position while he plays that position", but its completely box-score based.

Synergy sports, for instance, I also have pretty big issue with. If a guy has a terrible P&R partner, maybe he ranks out as a bad P&R player, independent of his own control.

Also, maybe a guy who is a pretty stellar defender, if he's got a bunch of weak defenders behind him, or a coach who isn't putting the right defensive gameplan forward, ranks out as a poor defender.

  First of all you've gone from "Josh Smith's best talent is his defense, and in that regard (according to advanced metrics) he's got everyone of the big 4 by a nice margin" to explaining why you think that advanced stats are meaningless because most of them seem to point in the other direction.

That is not what happened. Defensive metrics (dRTG, DWS) do point to Smith being better defensively by a significant margin. Opposing player PER isn't a reliable statistic, and the fact that only 82 games.com uses it, despite its availability to everyone out there, speaks volumes.   

Also, 'most' defensive metrics don't state that Smith is the inferior player. Synergy sports uses a completely different methodology than anyone else out there, and their stuff is basically subjective counting stats. The benefit is that they actually need to watch a game to get a number, but if you want me to discuss why I think that the numbers are merely a piece, not a picture, I will.

  You also have opposing efg% and the like from 82games, or the Hawks defense being better with him on the bench, as well as synergy sports.

Secondly, you're comparing Smith to some of the best defenders in the game. He might not be worse, but it's quite a stretch to claim that he's markedly better.

I never claimed he was markedly better. I said according to advanced metrics (dRTG, DWS being the operative statistics here, and in the evolving statistics forum, really the only two that have stuck around that are defensive in nature), he was markedly better, and he is.

  I'd point out that this season is a fairly small sample size, and Smith's defensive rating is about 8 points below his best year ever. His career DRtg is worse than any of Rondo/PP/KG, and his DWS/minute is well behind KG and Rondo and a little ahead of PP.

  Also, if you're going with advanced metrics, Smith's 2012 and career (regular season and playoff) WS/48 are all well below any of RR/PP/KG.

I dunno, I'd say if we just flat out added Josh Smith to the Celtics without taking any of the guys currently on the team away, I think he'd be the 3rd best scorer, the 2nd or 3rd best defender, and the best rebounder. I think his body of work and his play this year speaks to that as a logical conclusion.

  Smith's rebounding percentage is pretty much identical to KG and Wilcox. He may or may not be our best rebounder. He also takes more shots than anyone on the Celts, I don't think that would continue. He might be 3rd in scoring, he may be 4th, I'd say right around Ray. He wouldn't be better than Rondo. He'd score less and rebound about the same as KG, I'd say edge to KG. He'd score less than PP, whether he'd be the better player or not is up for debate.

   I don't see which of those three players you think that Smith is so much better than that you wouldn't even argue the point.

Josh Smith is a better scorer than KG due to his versatility alone. He's having a down year so far because he's being asked to do too much, but typically his TS% is right around 53.5%. With Rondo and the band helping him score more, I thought that number would return, or even improve. Pierce is our best and most versatile scorer, and I'd put Ray Allen's efficiency next. Smith is more versatile than KG, so I'd say he edges out KG.

In terms of defense, I'd say KG then Rondo/Smith. I think Rondo's a better defensive player empirically, but what Smith brings as a help defender > what rondo brings at the point as a defender.

  I'd compare Smith's shot location numbers to Garnett's before I declared Smith to be the more versatile scorer. I'd also compare their career TS%, .549 for KG to .518  for Josh.

[BballTim]

But, I feel like this debate is trending towards a stricter position than I really feel, so let's backtrack here:

Josh Smith could arguably be the Celtics' fourth best player, but it's not much of an argument.

  To take the abstract out of this, which player(s) of Paul/Kevin/Rajon do you feel that Smith is clearly superior to?

[Redz]

Don't like Josh Smith.  Never have.

[Who]

Kevin Garnett is the superior defender and offensive player to Josh Smith.

Garnett is superior offensively due his elite facilitating skills namely his passing ability, decision making and jump-shooting.

Josh Smith is an inferior offensive player due to his high turnovers, poor FT% and dodgy shot-selection. On a per possession basis, J.Smith is only scoring .82 points per possession (0.91 last season, still below average = points divided by FGAs + .5FTAs + turnovers) while Garnett is registering 0.97 (above average). Add in the difference in passing ability (Josh Smith is a good passer but KG is an elite passing big) and the difference becomes even larger.

Defensively, Josh Smith is a very capable defensive player but his effort, focus and discipline to fundamentals continue to be inconsistent. This drags down his impact considerably. He should be an All-League defender but he hasn't found that commitment yet (I'd love to see him under a Gregg Popovich or Larry Brown, I think a strong coach like that would do wonders for him). In comparison, Garnett remains one of the finest defensive big men in the league.

If you want to give Josh Smith the nod on the boards, I would be okay with that. I think they are think are pretty comparable but if you want to say Smith is slightly better, that's fine. But there is a large difference in their net worth in terms of offense and defense and hence in their overall value in Garnett's favour.

[Who]

I'd rate Pierce as a comparable defender and rebounder to Josh Smith and a vastly superior offensive player (by a massive margin). Hence, why Pierce is the better basketball player. 

Josh Smith is a more dynamic defensive presence but Pierce is the more diligent and attentive defender. In other words, Smith is capable of more but doesn't put the work in while Pierce isn't as capable but puts a lot more work in and ends up getting comparable results to the more gifted defensive player. 

Rajon Rondo is the best player of the bunch. Possession creation and offensive ability far outweigh Josh Smith. One could argue they are comparable scoring threats but Rondo's floor leadership and playmaking ability is the large difference in his favour offensively. Defensively, I'd say they are somewhat comparable. I think Rondo is a bit better relative to his position but that a big's defense is more valuable than a guards. I think that aspect (defensive value) is up for debate.

[dlpin]

I live in Atlanta and most people here are dying to give Josh Smith away, calling him uncoachable. He kills fast breaks by overdriblling, takes plays off, and hangs out by the 3 point line. So no, I don't want Josh Smith.

[Moranis]

Kevin Garnett is the superior defender and offensive player to Josh Smith.

Garnett is superior offensively due his elite facilitating skills namely his passing ability, decision making and jump-shooting.

Josh Smith is an inferior offensive player due to his high turnovers, poor FT% and dodgy shot-selection. On a per possession basis, J.Smith is only scoring .82 points per possession (0.91 last season, still below average = points divided by FGAs + .5FTAs + turnovers) while Garnett is registering 0.97 (above average). Add in the difference in passing ability (Josh Smith is a good passer but KG is an elite passing big) and the difference becomes even larger.

Defensively, Josh Smith is a very capable defensive player but his effort, focus and discipline to fundamentals continue to be inconsistent. This drags down his impact considerably. He should be an All-League defender but he hasn't found that commitment yet (I'd love to see him under a Gregg Popovich or Larry Brown, I think a strong coach like that would do wonders for him). In comparison, Garnett remains one of the finest defensive big men in the league.

If you want to give Josh Smith the nod on the boards, I would be okay with that. I think they are think are pretty comparable but if you want to say Smith is slightly better, that's fine. But there is a large difference in their net worth in terms of offense and defense and hence in their overall value in Garnett's favour.

To be fair, the last 3 seasons Josh Smith has had a much higher AST% than Kevin Garnett

[Big_Dave31]

I live in Atlanta and most people here are dying to give Josh Smith away, calling him uncoachable. He kills fast breaks by overdriblling, takes plays off, and hangs out by the 3 point line. So no, I don't want Josh Smith.

Couldn't see Smith doing that here with Rondo running the point.

Smith is nice, but I would not want to give up Garnett for him...

[winsomme]

Josh Smith is the exact reason that wanting to "rebuild" is a very unsatisfying objective. Josh Smith gets nice stats but simply does not create the core of a contending team.

Replacing KG with Smith is just not a good enough reason to abandon this current group. There is no reason to think that even this current squad would be improved by this swap.

Every time I hear people pushing for starting the rebuilding process now I'm fearfully envisioning a team built around Smith and Eric Gordon....and really how do we do better than that in a rebuild?

Keep this core going while they are healthy and get them the pieces they need. This is not a Bird, Parish, McHale redo...

[cman88]

see, personally I think Josh Smith would thrive playing with Rondo under this system.

he puts up near all-star calibar stats right now and can finish near the rim...bigs who can finish near the rim are Rondo's best friend...just look at how he has made Shaq/Wilcox look.

now, if you can get someone who can create their own shot you've got a Really good team...

[indeedproceed]

But, I feel like this debate is trending towards a stricter position than I really feel, so let's backtrack here:

Josh Smith could arguably be the Celtics' fourth best player, but it's not much of an argument.

  To take the abstract out of this, which player(s) of Paul/Kevin/Rajon do you feel that Smith is clearly superior to?

Just so I know I answered it, right now, this second, in a vacuum, Pierce. I think he is a pretty superior defensive player due to his skillset.

Honestly though if I really think about it they're pretty close. Smith is better going forward obv, but on a contender, I could really see someone wanting Pierce more.

I officially back off my previous statement, and say I was wrong. Its highly arguable.

EDIT: I do think that Josh Smith has gone from flavor of the month a couple years ago to pretty underrated defensively. Check this out:

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1639

And that's just a season ago, and not the first time he made the list (he was the 2nd rated SF in '08 and was an honerable mention in '10 as a PF).

[Rondoesit]

We don't have the assets to get Josh Smith. Not even close.

[byennie]

I live in Atlanta and most people here are dying to give Josh Smith away, calling him uncoachable. He kills fast breaks by overdriblling, takes plays off, and hangs out by the 3 point line. So no, I don't want Josh Smith.

I don't watch enough Hawks games to judge, but let's just keep in mind what people in Boston have to say about Rondo. If you believe half the people here, he's a downright liability.

[Rondoozzzeeee]

Can Bill Russell still suit up?

[dlpin]

I don't watch enough Hawks games to judge, but let's just keep in mind what people in Boston have to say about Rondo. If you believe half the people here, he's a downright liability.

For all the talks about Rondo's attitude, he's never been seen yelling at the coach like Smith has. He has never openly defied a coach's instructions, like Smith has. And he has never had to be benched because of that, like Smith has.

Also, keep in mind that the bar for fanbase dissatisfaction with a player is different in Atlanta and Boston. Boston players are under a lot more scrutiny, but for someone to p--- off the Atlanta fanbase this much it takes a lot.

And for all the stats people are quoting on blocks and rebounds, there are others that tell a different story. How about a 48% true shooting percentage, which is lower than every celtics rotation player except Bradley and Oneal? How about 2.7 turnovers per game, which is higher than every celtic except rondo and pierce? Or that he takes more long 2s (from 16-23 feet) than any celtic? Smith attempts 5.9 field goals a game from 16-23 feet and makes 32% of those. For comparison, KG tries 4.8 from that distance and makes 46% of those.

Now, you could chalk this up to inexperience or youth, but the guy has been 7 years in the league. Every coach he's ever had has asked him to shoot fewer long 2s. Everyone in Atlanta has asked him to do that. People yell "no" in home games when he lines up for these shots.

He is a hell of a talent, and very athletic. But he simply does not play to his strengths and no one has seemed to change him. To bet that Rondo and Doc would change him after so long in the league is too much risk. I'd rather risk it with cap space and picks than giving up anything meaningful for Josh Smith.