Author Topic: Restoring some sanity here: Quality rebuilding talk, and how long will it take?  (Read 12056 times)

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Offline Rondo2287

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As Rondo2287 points out, even if you do everything right, rebuilding will probably still take a while.  That's just the reality in this league.  After being a contender for 4-5 years, the natural cycle of things in the NBA is for your team to go back to mediocrity for 5-10 years.  That's basically a given.  What we should all want to avoid at all costs is mortgaging the future to maintain a modicum of competitiveness in the short term. 

Trading picks and young players for proven vets when you don't already have a franchise superstar just so you can make your team more competitive for the playoffs in the present only serves to keep you in the sub-contender basement for even longer.  The same goes for shelling out large contracts to players who aren't real stars when you don't have one already.

Rebuilding the right way requires a commitment to patience, the development of youth, and the acquisition of valuable, long term assets.  It cannot be rushed.  The fans may not enjoy multiple seasons spent toiling away with unproven young players cutting their teeth against the elite of the league, but it ultimately is in their best interest.

Personally I think this is 100% the truth and what we should be expecting
CB Draft LA Lakers: Lamarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony,Jrue Holiday, Wes Matthews  6.11, 7.16, 8.14, 8.15, 9.16, 11.5, 11.16

Offline birdbrady

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Mavs -- Dirk, a franchise star drafted high (would go even higher today with better overseas scouting)

Drafted 8th, not that high.  And Dirk wasn't going to be drafted that high because that was considered to be a good draft anyways.  Pierce went 10th and everyone knew he'd be good.  He was drafted where he was drafted, don't make excuses.

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Lakers -- recent titles aided by Bynum, a high pick;

LOL! Bynum was 10th dude, and Bynum was a minor part on those title teams.  They win it both years without him.  He barely played in the 2010 Finals.  And you do know the Lakers were out of the playoffs ONE year? They were able to stay in the playoffs, then traded 2 1sts, a mid-level first (Crittendon) and Gasol (2nd rounder) for Gasol to put them back as contenders.

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earlier titles fueled by poaching Shaq from Orlando, which the Celtics can't hope to emulate

I love how you used this example.  Shaq just fell from a tree right? All luck? After Magic retired in 91, the Lakers dipped into mediocrity.  They were never bad enough to get a high pick and draft an impact guy.  Jerry West made great picks (Peeler, Eddie Jones, Campbell, Van Exel) , decent signings (Threatt, Ceballos) and the Lakers stayed in the playoffs for all but one year (94 and didn't miss by much), and then were back to being a 50 win team in 95 and 96.  So how were they able to covince Shaq to go there? Because they were already good, and they were adding Kobe! They were a 50 win team + Kobe Bryant.  That made Shaq's decision a little easier.

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Heat -- drafted Wade, their franchise star, high. without Wade in place they wouldn't have gotten LeBron and Bosh to come to Miami.

Again, one year.  You're advocating years of sucking.

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Pistons -- the one team in the last 40 years to win a title without a franchise superstar.  good luck replicating that.

70, 73 Knicks (none of those guys were franchise superstars, just borderline allstars that played together as a team), 79 Sonics, 04 Pistons.

I also like how you left out the Spurs, who have remained one of the best teams in the NBA with Duncan declining.  Their whole team is late first rounders, quality free agent signings, and good coaching.


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In recent seasons, we've seen multiple trades for stars that involved players drafted high in the lottery.

e.g. Favors #3 for D-Will, Knicks package highlighted by Gallinari #6 for Melo, Gordon #7 + T-Wolves pick (anticipated high lottery pick) for Chris Paul.

-The Dwill with the Nets thing could absolutely blow up in their faces.  -Melo demanded a trade to the Knicks, and even so, Gallinari was just one guy.  The rest, besides Chandler (a borderline lotto pick) were all mid level stuff.  Not 3-4 years of high lottos.
-Not sure I want to go the Clippers rout.  4 playoff appearances in 33 yeras.  And that Wolves pick was acquired with Marko Jaric (mid level talent, picked in the 2nd round.)


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Having young stars in place is what gets big name free agents to come, though.

Example? I just showed that they join good teams (Shaq joining an already 50 win Laker squad) or that they come in packages (Heatles.)

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That has been well established over the last few years.  You forgot to mention Amare joining the Knicks.

This is your example? Amare didn't join the Knicks because of 'young talent.'  Gallinari didn't look like a future star at all at the time, and the rest of their roster was crap.  He joined the Knicks because Carmelo and another free agent (many thought Chris Paul) were going to be next in line, and because it was New York.


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Absolutely.  If you want to run your team just to keep the fans happy from year to year, don't pretend that you have any interest in winning a championship

You owe it to your fans to at least give them a plan.  I'm sorry, but turning your roster into an NBDL squad and then promising them lollipops and marshmellows down the road isn't going to cut it.  Don't you remember the fall-out and the disgust fans had with Danny after the 07 lottery? If those KG-Ray trades weren't made then the Celtics would be beyond meaningless in Boston.

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Fans who are really dedicated to the team, and care most about seeing it climb back to the ranks of the true elite, will stay on board.  The rest will jump off the bandwagon and follow the Red Sox and Bruins until the C's become contenders again, anyway.

Ah, except those people are important to the team.  You need to make money.  You need to give people a reason to watch you play.  If your spinning your wheels for 10+ years (Bulls), then the franchise starts losing money, and then you become no different than any other small market team who gets fleeced out of their stars.  Boston is not a basketball town.  They won't watch unless you are winning, or at the very least, have a plan to get back on top.  And they sure as hell won't watch when the Sox, Bruins, and Patriots are contending year in and year out.

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This Celtics team was built using a #5 pick, a bunch of solid prospects highlighted by a #15 pick who turned into a much better player than expected, and a #10 pick who became a Hall of Fame franchise superstar.

Was moreso built by mid to late first rounders, and even good second round picks, and acquiring other future draft considerations. As I pointed out a thousand times, Seattle was taking that trade if they could've got an expiring for Ray and a lesser pick as opposed to Wally at near max.  Maintain your flexibility and its easier to make trades.  Celtics did not have flexibility at the time so they HAD to have that high pick.  This time, we WILL have flexibility.

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That's not really "rebuilding with mid to late first round picks."  That's like trying to build a championship contender with the Rondos, Zach Randolphs, Darren Collisons, Kevin Martins, and Monta Ellis's of the league.  It just doesn't happen.  You have to pick high to go high in the NBA.

That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Offline PosImpos

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.


I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

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Offline Inside-Out

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.


I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

The best situation I can think of is exactly what we did to get KG and Ray:  four quarters for a buck.  Two quarters, a few nickels, a few shiny pennies, and some pocket lint doesn't get it done.

I would have to think that to bring in a franchise star would require trading Rondo, both 2012 picks, and Johnson, much like getting KG required Big Al, two 1sts, GGreen, and fodder.

Offline birdbrady

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.

Offline PosImpos

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.


I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

The best situation I can think of is exactly what we did to get KG and Ray:  four quarters for a buck.  Two quarters, a few nickels, a few shiny pennies, and some pocket lint doesn't get it done.

I would have to think that to bring in a franchise star would require trading Rondo, both 2012 picks, and Johnson, much like getting KG required Big Al, two 1sts, GGreen, and fodder.

Ainge has already tried trading Rondo in a package like that for a star (Chris Paul). Didn't work.

Trades like the one birdbrady is talking about, if they happen at all, only happen for stars that are on the cusp of leaving their prime.  The only time you trade young sub-stars for stars is when the stars you get in return are old. 

In a best case scenario, you get a title like the Celtics did in '08.  But that was a historical trade -- nothing like that has ever really happened before. 

Plus, as we've seen over the past 4 years, trying to contend for multiple seasons with an old core is a very difficult proposition, because injuries can so easily derail everything, and the core is declining from the moment you put it together.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Offline PosImpos

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.


I've already discussed ad nauseum how the Lakers and Celtics of the last 5 years were indeed built using high picks.  Neither team followed your mythical "mid to late first round picks" model.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Offline Inside-Out

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.

We got KG for a lotto pick (Minny's, previously acquired), a budding star in Jefferson, another 1st, plus prospects and fodder on rookie deals plus an expiring.  AND a lotto pick was previously traded to acquire the contract that was expiring...

Boy, short memories...

Offline birdbrady

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.

We got KG for a lotto pick (Minny's, previously acquired), a budding star in Jefferson, another 1st, plus prospects and fodder on rookie deals plus an expiring.

Boy, short memories...

That pick was not going to be a lotto pick.  Roy pointed that out here: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=52384.msg1115850#msg1115850

And you just proved my point, that we got KG for guys that were good picks in the mid first (Jefferson), second (Gomes), and future draft considerations (that Minnesota pick.)  Not from "high picks."  We drafted quality, mid level guys and packaged them for a star.  Classic a quarter, two dimes, and a nickel and a couple of pennies for a full dollar trade.

I think that is what anyone would advocate.

Offline PosImpos

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


Quote
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.

We got KG for a lotto pick (Minny's, previously acquired), a budding star in Jefferson, another 1st, plus prospects and fodder on rookie deals plus an expiring.

Boy, short memories...

That pick was not going to be a lotto pick.  Roy pointed that out here: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=52384.msg1115850#msg1115850

And you just proved my point, that we got KG for guys that were good picks in the mid first (Jefferson), second (Gomes), and future draft considerations (that Minnesota pick.)  Not from "high picks."  We drafted quality, mid level guys and packaged them for a star.  Classic a quarter, two dimes, and a nickel and a couple of pennies for a full dollar trade.

I think that is what anyone would advocate.

Except KG doesn't come here without Ray already on board, and we got Ray with the #5.

I think you're underrating the role that Telfair (drafted 13) played in the KG trade, too.  He was still considered a young player with good upside at that point.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers

Offline birdbrady

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That doesn't mean you keep all those players.  You package the Rondos, the Randolphs and you get Gasols, Allens, and Garnetts.

Riiiiight.

What kind of response is this? What did the Lakers get Gasol for? What did the Celtics get Garnett for? There wasn't a shred of evidence of a 'high pick' in any of those deals to acquire those players.


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I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because we seem to be seeing two completely different realities here.

I'll reiterate the basic truth that needs to be reiterated so often to people who don't want to face the reality of rebuilding:

Practically every single team that's won a title in the last 30-40 years has been built around a player who was selected high in the lottery.  You don't draft high, you don't win titles.  End of story.

Except the Celtics and Lakers, the two dominant teams of the NBA the last five years.


I've already discussed ad nauseum how the Lakers and Celtics of the last 5 years were indeed built using high picks.  Neither team followed your mythical "mid to late first round picks" model.

Except I've already told you, ad nauseum you're wrong.  You can debate all you want with the Celtics, but the Lakers have never used their own pick inside of 10 and have missed the playoffs twice in the last 35 years.  Why are you wasting your time arguing against that?

Offline birdbrady

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Except KG doesn't come here without Ray already on board, and we got Ray with the #5.

But as I have pointed out a million times, that 5 pick was only necessary because we had Seattle taking on Wally's near max, non-expiring contract.  If the team had flexibility at the time, we would not have had to throw the season to get that 5 pick.  Whatever, that point is debatable, (whereas opposed to you saying the Lakers the last 15 years were built through their own high picks the draft is not debatable.)

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I think you're underrating the role that Telfair (drafted 13) played in the KG trade, too.  He was still considered a young player with good upside at that point.

he had no value at all.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2847755
« Last Edit: February 21, 2012, 02:18:24 PM by birdbrady »

Offline Inside-Out

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Except KG doesn't come here without Ray already on board, and we got Ray with the #5.

But as I have pointed out a million times, that 5 pick was only necessary because we had Seattle taking on Wally's near max, non-expiring contract.  If the team had flexibility at the time, we would not have had to throw the season to get that 5 pick.  Whatever, that point is debatable, (whereas opposed to you saying the Lakers the last 15 years were built through the draft is not debatable.)

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I think you're underrating the role that Telfair (drafted 13) played in the KG trade, too.  He was still considered a young player with good upside at that point.

he had no value at all.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2847755


i don't think we threw the season on purpose.  Paul took an extended break on the IL, but we really sucked.

Offline birdbrady

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i don't think we threw the season on purpose.  Paul took an extended break on the IL, but we really sucked.

oh come on.  Here's one game:

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=270321002

There were many games like that.

Yes the team 'sucked' but to argue against them tanking is absurd.  Pierce, and Wally took more than extended break on the IL. 

Offline PosImpos

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Whatever, that point is debatable, (whereas opposed to you saying the Lakers the last 15 years were built through the draft is not debatable.)



The Lakers did not build their team entirely through the draft, no.  But their model is impossible to emulate for a number of reasons -- the primary one being that they are the Lakers, based in an enormous warm weather city that boasts the spotlight of Hollywood.  That's how the Lakers get so many major free agents to join up with them, which is what's allowed them to stay competitive year after year without any drop-offs.

Shaq didn't leave the Magic to join the Lakers just because they were a good team.  The Magic were a good team, too.  He joined the Lakers because they were the LAKERS.  The Celtics are not going to lure any hall of fame big men in their prime away from their teams by dangling the charms of Boston.

As for their more recent success, you can dismiss the important of Andrew Bynum in their two most recent titles if you want.  The Pau Gasol trade certainly was the prime enabling of their recent run -- but if you want to advocate that we hang our rebuilding hopes on replicating a lop-sided deal like that one, you'll have a difficult time convincing many folks of the reliability of your plan, I think.
Never forget the Champs of '08, or the gutsy warriors of '10.

"I know you all wanna win, but you gotta do it TOGETHER!"
- Doc Rivers