Are we really better w/o Rondo or will his return vault us back to eliteness?

[guava_wrench]

I think we will benefit from his return, but I think Bradley has hurt Rondo's chances for another 1st team all-defense by showing even better defense from within the same defensive scheme. Esp with TA probably locking up the other guard spot, leaving Rondo competing with all the remaining guards.

Not that such award really matter. I just think we won't know the answer to the original thread question until he returns.

[guava_wrench]

I hope that when Rondo's back he'll stop coughing up the ball 4 times a game. It's unacceptable.

  Most of the point guards were turning the ball over a lot at the beginning of the year. The shortened preseason no doubt had a lot to do with that.

Not really. From the top PGs, the only ones that seemed to be in a funk were Deron Williams and Kyle Lowry. Everyone else was pretty much up to par with their last season performance.

  Without even looking, I'd say that Nash and Westbrook were in that grouping as well. I'm sure there were others as well.

And Lowry is probably having his best season ever (not that he has been considered a top PG in the past). Could his increased TOs be mostly due to increased usage?

Westbrook is essentially the same as last year in TOs, though with considerable fewer assists (and the same scoring avg). Side note: anyone ever notice how despite all his Sportscenter highlights shooting 3's, he shoots .273 for his career from 3?

Nash's TOs seem to be at his normal rate.

Deron, on the other hand, seems to be down in every stat except turnovers.

[kozlodoev]

I hope that when Rondo's back he'll stop coughing up the ball 4 times a game. It's unacceptable.

  Most of the point guards were turning the ball over a lot at the beginning of the year. The shortened preseason no doubt had a lot to do with that.

Not really. From the top PGs, the only ones that seemed to be in a funk were Deron Williams and Kyle Lowry. Everyone else was pretty much up to par with their last season performance.

  Without even looking, I'd say that Nash and Westbrook were in that grouping as well. I'm sure there were others as well.

Nash had 32 turnovers through the first 10 games, which is actually below his season average from last season (3.4). He's currently at 3.5. Rondo, on the other hand, has 41 in his first 10 games (and has since "cut" his average to 3.9 for the season).

I don't consider Westbrook a top PG by any stretch of imagination. Top guard, sure. Top player, maybe. In my book, he's in the same mold as Monta Ellis, someone who's billed a PG mostly because he has difficulties defending any other position.

[Vermont Green]

One thing that I find interesting about Rondo in vs out stats is that we are actually averaging more assists per game with Rondo out (22.9) than with Rondo in (21.6).  How is this possible when you are replacing a player perceived to be the best passer in the world [ ] with a near rookie who appears to struggle handling the ball/team?

My conclusion from this is that by eliminating the affect of Rondo hanging on to the ball too much, Garnett, Pierce and others are seeing their assists increase.  To me, having a team where you are getting assists from everyone is much harder to defend than a team where 1 guys tries to get all the assists (not literally of course).  The ball is moving better since Rondo sat down (at least that is what I see).

I am not suggesting we are better without Rondo but I am suggesting that even though we are better with the old Rondo, we could be even better with a Rondo let go of steering wheel more.  The Celtics are actually pretty easy to defend when Rondo has the ball and is dribbling around.  We are much harder to defend when the ball is moving forcing the defense to make adjustments, leaving people open, and ending up with more easy baskets for more people with more people getting more assists.

[Fafnir]

Rondo is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as last year overall. He's just taking on a greater burden in the offense.

As for if the C's will be better with him, yes. The C's offense hasn't been good without him, below are the C's ORTG for games without Rondo paired with our opponents defensive ranking in the NBA.

81.4   23rd
105.8   14th
97   24th
106.2   14th
99.3   7th
101.6   21st
110   21st
119   18th

Average of 102.5375

We've played below average defensive teams on the aggregate but haven't scored any better against them than we have the better defensive competition we faced early in the season.

[Moranis]

One thing that I find interesting about Rondo in vs out stats is that we are actually averaging more assists per game with Rondo out (22.9) than with Rondo in (21.6).  How is this possible when you are replacing a player perceived to be the best passer in the world [ ] with a near rookie who appears to struggle handling the ball/team?

My conclusion from this is that by eliminating the affect of Rondo hanging on to the ball too much, Garnett, Pierce and others are seeing their assists increase.  To me, having a team where you are getting assists from everyone is much harder to defend than a team where 1 guys tries to get all the assists (not literally of course).  The ball is moving better since Rondo sat down (at least that is what I see).

I am not suggesting we are better without Rondo but I am suggesting that even though we are better with the old Rondo, we could be even better with a Rondo let go of steering wheel more.  The Celtics are actually pretty easy to defend when Rondo has the ball and is dribbling around.  We are much harder to defend when the ball is moving forcing the defense to make adjustments, leaving people open, and ending up with more easy baskets for more people with more people getting more assists.

This is actually why I would move Rondo for a worse but better fit and some other asset.  I actually believe a PG that is more of a shooter would be a much better fit on the team.  That isn't to say the team is better with Bradley and Moore instead of Rondo, but a player like Conley would be a better fit (still a good passer, a good defender, and a much better shooter).  I don't think Memphis does Conley and Mayo for Rondo, but I sure would if I'm Danny Ainge.

[Chris]

Of course we are not better without Rondo.

Rondo's injury just coincided with Pierce getting his legs and the new guys starting to feel comfortable, after having to learn the system on the fly.  Combined with the natural inclination of guys to pick up their games when one of their best players goes down.

[Fafnir]

Before playing Toronto were the C's recorded 30 assists the C's were only getting .3 more assists per game. Given how much the Raptors layed down last night I don't think those numbers are all that meaningful. In short I think the APG number aren't different enough to be signifigant.

We're the second best team in assisting our made baskets and have been up at the top of that stat the entire year. We only score when we move the ball whether or not Rondo plays or not. I don't think the ball movement has truly been better.

My conclusion from this is that by eliminating the affect of Rondo hanging on to the ball too much, Garnett, Pierce and others are seeing their assists increase.  To me, having a team where you are getting assists from everyone is much harder to defend than a team where 1 guys tries to get all the assists (not literally of course).  The ball is moving better since Rondo sat down (at least that is what I see).

I think Paul Pierce getting back to form makes everything look better to our eyes.

[Vermont Green]

Before playing Toronto were the C's recorded 30 assists the C's were only getting .3 more assists per game.

And if you throw out the two 28 assist games we had while Rondo was playing the numbers change or if you throw out the two 16 assist games, the numbers say something else.

You just have to take the numbers for what they are.  We lose the league assist leader, replace him with a hapless near-rookie, and our team assists and wins go up.  Even if assists stayed the same, I think this is still a stat to pay attentin to.

No factor can be isolated but on the otherhand, if you just rationalize away any possiblility that Rondo needs to change/improve his game, you are missing an important opportunity to learn something and improve the team.

[zerophase]

For me, I really like the double point guard lineup the Clippers have with Paul and Billups. I really liked it back in the day when Dallas started Devin Harris and either Jason Kidd or Jason Terry? I don't remember who the 2nd guard was. Maybe Doc can start Bradley and Rondo?

[snively]

Rondo is turning the ball over at roughly the same rate as last year overall. He's just taking on a greater burden in the offense.

As for if the C's will be better with him, yes. The C's offense hasn't been good without him, below are the C's ORTG for games without Rondo paired with our opponents defensive ranking in the NBA.

81.4   23rd
105.8   14th
97   24th
106.2   14th
99.3   7th
101.6   21st
110   21st
119   18th

Average of 102.5375

We've played below average defensive teams on the aggregate but haven't scored any better against them than we have the better defensive competition we faced early in the season.

Correct.  Paul Pierce's magnificence has kept the team treading water offensively, and Ray's return has given a nice boost: but there's been no offensive improvement compared to what we were doing at the beginning of the year.

The defense has improved by leaps and bounds, though.  Other than the slight set-backs against Cleveland (when the Irving/Varejao combo carved us up), the defense has been dominant since the first Orlando game. 

As long as Rondo doesn't screw up our D, we should be fine.

[guava_wrench]

For me, I really like the double point guard lineup the Clippers have with Paul and Billups. I really liked it back in the day when Dallas started Devin Harris and either Jason Kidd or Jason Terry? I don't remember who the 2nd guard was. Maybe Doc can start Bradley and Rondo?

Terry plays like a SG and Kidd is large. Billups is a good catch and shoot guy and strong - so offensively there wasn't a problem with the combos, nor on defense.

I don't think Rondo and Bradley are a problem on defense, but offense is a different story. It is like Rondo + TA except with less offensive rebounding. I am not opposed to trying it though. I don't think Rondo + TA was a disaster on offense so long as TA wasn't leading a fast break.

[guava_wrench]

As long as Rondo doesn't screw up our D, we should be fine.

Hopefully Rondo will apply more ball pressure and not save energy so often. Rondo can also disrupt opposing PGs. This has been a core part of our defense since 2007-08. But as his role has expanded, it seems to me that he tries to conserve energy more. I think he has proven the ability to do all that is needed to keep the defense going as it is.

[Fafnir]

You just have to take the numbers for what they are.  We lose the league assist leader, replace him with a hapless near-rookie, and our team assists and wins go up.  Even if assists stayed the same, I think this is still a stat to pay attentin to.

Well if you want to look at why the team started winning look to our defense, our defensive rating came back to top of the league (4th atm) after a very rough start to the season.

That combined with Paul Pierce's improved play are the reason we're winning more games. He went from not playing and then playing poorly to playing like the Pierce we've seen for years.

Before Rondo went out:
38% FG 43% 3P% 4.7 FTA 4.9 RPG 3.9 APG 2.5 TPG 14.9  PPG

After Rondo went out:
48% FG 43% 3P% 6.6 FTA 6 RPG, 7.5 APG 3.8 TPG 21.5 PPG

[snively]

For me, I really like the double point guard lineup the Clippers have with Paul and Billups. I really liked it back in the day when Dallas started Devin Harris and either Jason Kidd or Jason Terry? I don't remember who the 2nd guard was. Maybe Doc can start Bradley and Rondo?

Terry plays like a SG and Kidd is large. Billups is a good catch and shoot guy and strong - so offensively there wasn't a problem with the combos, nor on defense.

I don't think Rondo and Bradley are a problem on defense, but offense is a different story. It is like Rondo + TA except with less offensive rebounding. I am not opposed to trying it though. I don't think Rondo + TA was a disaster on offense so long as TA wasn't leading a fast break.

Maybe Rondo-Bradley in brief spurts against teams with weak ball-handling backcourts, but now that we have Pietrus, I'd like to see more Rondo-Pietrus.  You can still apply a lot of defensive pressure with that combo, and be a lot more dangerous offensively.