Lets just trade the whole team for Chris Paul

[BballTim]

And Tim, you understand at this point you're arguing that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett, 3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position, are somehow not a considerable boon to Rajon Rondo's baseline performance.

  I know perfectly well who Rondo plays with. But, just for perspective, did you happen to see how the "3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position" fared against the Heat when Rondo wasn't playing? If those three players are creating so many great scoring opportunities around the rim, why do the bulk of those opportunities revolve around Rondo? Why weren't there a largish amount of points scored where Paul passed to Kevin, Ray passed to Paul or KG passed to Shaq?

  The scores at the rim that the Celts got that didn't involve Rondo were about the same as the amount of scores at the rim the Hornets got that didn't involve CP3. If your claims about greatly increased numbers are true, there should be a significant difference between the two. Why isn't there?

I'm not claiming greatly increased numbers. I'm claiming that Chris Paul would get 1 more basket at the rim, and would assist one more basket at the rim.

That's not greatly increased numbers, that's 1 assist and 1 more layup a game. You're the one who is claiming that Rondo's mythical ability to get to the rim and create at the rim are somehow beyond Chris Paul's abilities.

EDIT: Look at Rondo's numbers at HoopData. 30% of his baskets at the rim were assisted. 12.5 of Paul's baskets at the rim were assisted. Its certainly within the realm of reason that the disparity there would remedy its self if Paul had more capable teammates.

  Some of this is dueling stats. From hoopdata, Rondo scores or assists 7.3 baskets at the rim per game, CP3 scores or assists 4.4 a game. And, again, from the hoopdata numbers, when CP3 and Rondo aren't involved in the play, the Hornets and the Celts get about the same number of baskets at the rim. Obviously, when Rondo and Paul aren't involved in the play, both teams create a similar amount of chances at the rim. So why do the Celts chances increase so much more than NO's when the two point guards are involved in the play?

[Fafnir]

I think your over emphasis on shots at the rim is missing the larger picture. For one it could be a deliberate decision of the strucure of the offense by the coaches as much as it is inherent differences in the PGs games.

Another point is that Rondo takes 2 less 3s and 3 less free throws per game than Rondo. That easily accounts for the much of the at the rim difference.

But that's not a bad thing, CP3 is a much more efficient scorer and diverse scoring threat because he can get to the line (and make them at a high percentage) and also hit threes.

[BballTim]

Until someone can show me how Rondo creates more points when he is on the floor vs. Paul (since the numbers we have seen up to now points the other way) I have to believe the Celtics offense will be better with Paul.

Chris Paul 15.8ppg 9.8 assists per game
Rajon Rondo 10.6ppg 11.2 assists per game

So Chris Paul generates, on average, in one game, at least 35.4 points.
Rajon Rondo generates 33 points.

  By the way, you can see the difference in production between players and their opponents on 82games. Between points and assists CP3 generates 12 points a game more than his opponent in the same number of possessions. If you counted assists as possessions, he's generating 12 more points in 4 more possessions. Those are very good numbers.

  Rondo generates 8 more points than his opponent, but he does so using 6.6 possessions *less* than his opponents. If you count assists as posessions, he generates those 8 points on the same amount of possessions. So, also very good, lower usage but in terms of efficiency he probably wins his matchup by a little more than CP3 does.

[indeedproceed]

And Tim, you understand at this point you're arguing that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett, 3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position, are somehow not a considerable boon to Rajon Rondo's baseline performance.

  I know perfectly well who Rondo plays with. But, just for perspective, did you happen to see how the "3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position" fared against the Heat when Rondo wasn't playing? If those three players are creating so many great scoring opportunities around the rim, why do the bulk of those opportunities revolve around Rondo? Why weren't there a largish amount of points scored where Paul passed to Kevin, Ray passed to Paul or KG passed to Shaq?

  The scores at the rim that the Celts got that didn't involve Rondo were about the same as the amount of scores at the rim the Hornets got that didn't involve CP3. If your claims about greatly increased numbers are true, there should be a significant difference between the two. Why isn't there?

I'm not claiming greatly increased numbers. I'm claiming that Chris Paul would get 1 more basket at the rim, and would assist one more basket at the rim.

That's not greatly increased numbers, that's 1 assist and 1 more layup a game. You're the one who is claiming that Rondo's mythical ability to get to the rim and create at the rim are somehow beyond Chris Paul's abilities.

EDIT: Look at Rondo's numbers at HoopData. 30% of his baskets at the rim were assisted. 12.5 of Paul's baskets at the rim were assisted. Its certainly within the realm of reason that the disparity there would remedy its self if Paul had more capable teammates.

  Some of this is dueling stats. From hoopdata, Rondo scores or assists 7.3 baskets at the rim per game, CP3 scores or assists 4.4 a game. And, again, from the hoopdata numbers, when CP3 and Rondo aren't involved in the play, the Hornets and the Celts get about the same number of baskets at the rim. Obviously, when Rondo and Paul aren't involved in the play, both teams create a similar amount of chances at the rim. So why do the Celts chances increase so much more than NO's when the two point guards are involved in the play?

A) how are you getting Hornets and Celtics attempts at the rim without Rondo/Paul?

B) The 82games stats are markedly different, and seem to favor Rondo less in the thin frame we're talking about here. The hoopdata stats seem to markedly favor Rondo more.

The 82games stats have 267 buckets assisted in layups or dunks in 2011 for Rondo, Hoopdata states 312.

I'll re-run the numbers to make sure I didn't make any mistakes, but what I did was ((total # of assists at the rim)/(total minutes played in 2011))*36

To give an accurate Per-36 minutes (a better comparison tool than per game) stats for each player.

[indeedproceed]

I think your over emphasis on shots at the rim is missing the larger picture. For one it could be a deliberate decision of the strucure of the offense by the coaches as much as it is inherent differences in the PGs games.

Another point is that Rondo takes 2 less 3s and 3 less free throws per game than Rondo. That easily accounts for the much of the at the rim difference.

But that's not a bad thing, CP3 is a much more efficient scorer and diverse scoring threat because he can get to the line (and make them at a high percentage) and also hit threes.

This. We're not seeing the forest for the trees for sure.

[BballTim]

I think your over emphasis on shots at the rim is missing the larger picture. For one it could be a deliberate decision of the strucure of the offense by the coaches as much as it is inherent differences in the PGs games.

Another point is that Rondo takes 2 less 3s and 3 less free throws per game than Rondo. That easily accounts for the much of the at the rim difference.

But that's not a bad thing, CP3 is a much more efficient scorer and diverse scoring threat because he can get to the line (and make them at a high percentage) and also hit threes.

  I don't know why a coach would want to emphasize jump shots over shots at the rim, but I suppose anything's possible. And a large amount of CP3's free throws aren't from shooting fouls.

[Fafnir]

Until someone can show me how Rondo creates more points when he is on the floor vs. Paul (since the numbers we have seen up to now points the other way) I have to believe the Celtics offense will be better with Paul.

Chris Paul 15.8ppg 9.8 assists per game
Rajon Rondo 10.6ppg 11.2 assists per game

So Chris Paul generates, on average, in one game, at least 35.4 points.
Rajon Rondo generates 33 points.

  By the way, you can see the difference in production between players and their opponents on 82games. Between points and assists CP3 generates 12 points a game more than his opponent in the same number of possessions. If you counted assists as possessions, he's generating 12 more points in 4 more possessions. Those are very good numbers.

  Rondo generates 8 more points than his opponent, but he does so using 6.6 possessions *less* than his opponents. If you count assists as posessions, he generates those 8 points on the same amount of possessions. So, also very good, lower usage but in terms of efficiency he probably wins his matchup by a little more than CP3 does.

Opponents production is heavily influenced by team defensive strength. New Orleans had a defensive effiency of 105, good but only a little better than league average of 107.

The Celtics had a defensive efficiency of 100, tied with the Chicago Bulls for first in the entire NBA.

[BballTim]

And Tim, you understand at this point you're arguing that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett, 3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position, are somehow not a considerable boon to Rajon Rondo's baseline performance.

  I know perfectly well who Rondo plays with. But, just for perspective, did you happen to see how the "3 players who are perennial all-stars, HOFers in waiting, acknowledged as capable, competent leaders and among the headiest most intelligent players at their position" fared against the Heat when Rondo wasn't playing? If those three players are creating so many great scoring opportunities around the rim, why do the bulk of those opportunities revolve around Rondo? Why weren't there a largish amount of points scored where Paul passed to Kevin, Ray passed to Paul or KG passed to Shaq?

  The scores at the rim that the Celts got that didn't involve Rondo were about the same as the amount of scores at the rim the Hornets got that didn't involve CP3. If your claims about greatly increased numbers are true, there should be a significant difference between the two. Why isn't there?

I'm not claiming greatly increased numbers. I'm claiming that Chris Paul would get 1 more basket at the rim, and would assist one more basket at the rim.

That's not greatly increased numbers, that's 1 assist and 1 more layup a game. You're the one who is claiming that Rondo's mythical ability to get to the rim and create at the rim are somehow beyond Chris Paul's abilities.

EDIT: Look at Rondo's numbers at HoopData. 30% of his baskets at the rim were assisted. 12.5 of Paul's baskets at the rim were assisted. Its certainly within the realm of reason that the disparity there would remedy its self if Paul had more capable teammates.

  Some of this is dueling stats. From hoopdata, Rondo scores or assists 7.3 baskets at the rim per game, CP3 scores or assists 4.4 a game. And, again, from the hoopdata numbers, when CP3 and Rondo aren't involved in the play, the Hornets and the Celts get about the same number of baskets at the rim. Obviously, when Rondo and Paul aren't involved in the play, both teams create a similar amount of chances at the rim. So why do the Celts chances increase so much more than NO's when the two point guards are involved in the play?

A) how are you getting Hornets and Celtics attempts at the rim without Rondo/Paul?

  From hoopdata, I take the number of made baskets at the rim and subtract the ones that Rondo/Paul make or assist. I hate to say this when the numbers favor Rondo, but hoopdata is a little better for this because it does things on a per game basis, and the players didn't play the same amount of games. Easier math.

[Fafnir]

I think your over emphasis on shots at the rim is missing the larger picture. For one it could be a deliberate decision of the strucure of the offense by the coaches as much as it is inherent differences in the PGs games.

Another point is that Rondo takes 2 less 3s and 3 less free throws per game than Rondo. That easily accounts for the much of the at the rim difference.

But that's not a bad thing, CP3 is a much more efficient scorer and diverse scoring threat because he can get to the line (and make them at a high percentage) and also hit threes.

  I don't know why a coach would want to emphasize jump shots over shots at the rim, but I suppose anything's possible. And a large amount of CP3's free throws aren't from shooting fouls.

Chris Paul drew 101 shooting fouls, 225 personal fouls, and 5 loose ball fouls

Rajon Rondo drew 51 shooting fouls, and 83 personal fouls, no loose ball fouls

All in all Paul had .4 FT/FGA ratio, Rondo had a .2 FT/FGA ratio.

[Evantime34]

Paul is clearly better than Rondo, however the extent to which he is better is up for debate. I don't think Paul is Green and two firsts better than Rondo.

[indeedproceed]

 From hoopdata, I take the number of made baskets at the rim and subtract the ones that Rondo/Paul make or assist. I hate to say this when the numbers favor Rondo, but hoopdata is a little better for this because it does things on a per game basis, and the players didn't play the same amount of games. Easier math.

See the per game doesn't work for me, because ROndo played more minutes per contest.

That's why i favor the per-36 production. both guys, same amount of minutes, even comparison.

[Fafnir]

 From hoopdata, I take the number of made baskets at the rim and subtract the ones that Rondo/Paul make or assist. I hate to say this when the numbers favor Rondo, but hoopdata is a little better for this because it does things on a per game basis, and the players didn't play the same amount of games. Easier math.

See the per game doesn't work for me, because ROndo played more minutes per contest.

That's why i favor the per-36 production. both guys, same amount of minutes, even comparison.

Rondo played about two more minutes per game, but missed more games as well. You really have to adjust for that to level things out.

The Hornets also played a slightly slower pace the Celtics, which kinda surpised me. That should be factored in as well.

[BballTim]

 From hoopdata, I take the number of made baskets at the rim and subtract the ones that Rondo/Paul make or assist. I hate to say this when the numbers favor Rondo, but hoopdata is a little better for this because it does things on a per game basis, and the players didn't play the same amount of games. Easier math.

See the per game doesn't work for me, because ROndo played more minutes per contest.

That's why i favor the per-36 production. both guys, same amount of minutes, even comparison.

  From memory, and I can't say for sure which site this was from, Rondo produced about 50% more baskets at the rim than CP3 on an per minute basis. Also, and this was a rough(ish) estimate, Rondo scored or assisted about 60% of the Celts baskets at the rim when he was playing, Paul was at about 45% of the Hornets baskets at the rim.

[Greenbean]

I think your over emphasis on shots at the rim is missing the larger picture. For one it could be a deliberate decision of the strucure of the offense by the coaches as much as it is inherent differences in the PGs games.

Another point is that Rondo takes 2 less 3s and 3 less free throws per game than Rondo. That easily accounts for the much of the at the rim difference.

But that's not a bad thing, CP3 is a much more efficient scorer and diverse scoring threat because he can get to the line (and make them at a high percentage) and also hit threes.

  I don't know why a coach would want to emphasize jump shots over shots at the rim, but I suppose anything's possible. And a large amount of CP3's free throws aren't from shooting fouls.

The top ten teams at generating shots at the rim

1. Denver
2. Toronto
3. Memphis
4. Charlotte
5. LA Clippers
6. Chicago
7. Detroit
8. Utah Jazz
9. GS Warriors
10. Boston

I guess there are 9 point guards better than Rondo with the likes of Mike COnley, Chsuncey Billups, Rodney Stuckey, Jerryd Bayless etc...


Also, if you look at shots 3-9 feet (where you can factor in Paul's deadly floater) Paul is in the top ten in makes and attempts while Rondo isnt in the top 30 in either.

Also, if you look at assists of baskets less than ten feet, Paul is in the top 6 while Rondo is 22nd.

Dunks and layups arent the only high percentage shots.

By the way, Dallas was next to last in shots attempted at the rim...

[bbd24]

Paul is clearly better than Rondo, however the extent to which he is better is up for debate. I don't think Paul is Green and two firsts better than Rondo.

I think people tend to lean on stats too much. Playing with different teams, personnel, etc. brings different results/stats. What would Paul do while playing with guys like Ray, PP, & KG ?  IMO, Paul is hands down the better player.  No question.

If you can land him with the Green combination, you got to pull the trigger.  If I'm guessing, I think Ainge lands Paul & replaces Green with Battier.  Just a hunch.  Not sure how it gets done though.  We'll see.