CBA Judgment Day Thread

[Interceptor]

Because if games are cancelled people are going to want to point fingers. And if games were to be cancelled the general public is going to be pointing directly at the players.

To what end? Fan anger does nothing to the negotation process, which is ultimately about money. The games are cancelled, people cannot vote with their wallets because there is nothing to boycott, and in any case there is no way to punish the union without punishing the entire organization.

This business about the PR wars is, in my opinion, nothing but a dream born of frustration.

[StartOrien]

Because if games are cancelled people are going to want to point fingers. And if games were to be cancelled the general public is going to be pointing directly at the players.

To what end? Fan anger does nothing to the negotation process, which is ultimately about money. The games are cancelled, people cannot vote with their wallets because there is nothing to boycott, and in any case there is no way to punish the union without punishing the entire organization.

This business about the PR wars is, in my opinion, nothing but a dream born of frustration.

Yes, they can. The fans are whats providing the money. If you anger the fan, they stop providing the NBA with money and everyone involved in is making less.

Which, isn't as big of a deal to the owners in a system that's not paying them out anyways.

[StartOrien]

Might be go-time

via Berger

There's movement at L'Hotel du Lockout. We could have access to various dignitaries shortly. #NBA

ughhhhhh

via Mannix

ChrisMannixSI: NBA/Union meeting wrapping up. Hearing that it's not good news.

[PosImpos]

Might be go-time

via Berger

There's movement at L'Hotel du Lockout. We could have access to various dignitaries shortly. #NBA

ughhhhhh

via Mannix

ChrisMannixSI: NBA/Union meeting wrapping up. Hearing that it's not good news.

Unsurprised.  I've always felt that if the owners didn't get a mostly favorable deal prior to the "games cancelled" deadline, they'd dig in, harden their demands, and wait for the players to crack sometime mid-winter.

A lot of these optimistic reports coming out in the last week or so have been predicated on the idea that the sides are moving towards a deal that represents a significant compromise by both sides. 

I have a feeling the owners would much prefer something less compromising.  The fact that the players haven't been jumping to agree to what many of the owners must regard as an enormous concession on their part (considering they are the ones with all of the money) can only have made them more likely to break the players a few months down the line.

[Interceptor]

Yes, they can. The fans are whats providing the money. If you anger the fan, they stop providing the NBA with money and everyone involved in is making less.

Yes, EVERYONE involved is making less. So why does fan anger matter to the negotiation process? Both sides stand to lose, not just one or the other. Who can leverage the PR for their cause? Nobody!

Which, isn't as big of a deal to the owners in a system that's not paying them out anyways.

I beg to differ. The owners are the ones on the hook for the big bucks. Delonte West isn't enmeshed in some TV agreement for a season that is no longer happening, he can always get a job moving furniture. As much money as the owners claim to lose, bet your bottom dollar that they lose even more if they can't come to an agreement.

[StartOrien]

I beg to differ. The owners are the ones on the hook for the big bucks. Delonte West isn't enmeshed in some TV agreement for a season that is no longer happening, he can always get a job moving furniture. As much money as the owners claim to lose, bet your bottom dollar that they lose even more if they can't come to an agreement.

But your operating under assumptions and speculations, not fact. Every report out there has 17 of the 30 NBA teams losing money at the end of the day.

While I'm sure you're right that not all the numbers are 100% honest - as pointed out in the Gladwell article - I think you can also look at how the players are willing to negotiate, and combine that with the amount of ownership change, and relocation rumors and determine that clearly the split isn't working for the owners.

I honestly believe the greater percentage of owners are probably making either a minimal profit, or losing money. They don't have the motivation to return.

So yes, everyone's losing out on hypothetical, future money if games are cancelled, but the owners stance I'm sure will still be "we're not returning until we have a model that's going to make us money." Meaning all that loss is gong to be felt by the players.

[TheReaLPuba]

I beg to differ. The owners are the ones on the hook for the big bucks. Delonte West isn't enmeshed in some TV agreement for a season that is no longer happening, he can always get a job moving furniture. As much money as the owners claim to lose, bet your bottom dollar that they lose even more if they can't come to an agreement.

But your operating under assumptions and speculations, not fact. Every report out there has 17 of the 30 NBA teams losing money at the end of the day.

While I'm sure you're right that not all the numbers are 100% honest - as pointed out in the Gladwell article - I think you can also look at how the players are willing to negotiate, and combine that with the amount of ownership change, and relocation rumors and determine that clearly the split isn't working for the owners.

I honestly believe the greater percentage of owners are probably making either a minimal profit, or losing money. They don't have the motivation to return.

So yes, everyone's losing out on hypothetical, future money if  are cancelled, but the owners stance I'm sure will still be "we're not returning until we have a model that's going to make us money." Meaning all that loss is gong to be felt by the players.

The value of their franchise would be diminished immensely. Especially if there is no league anymore.

That's billions of dollars down the tubes.

[FallGuy]

FWIW (this was from pre-meeting today)

IraHeatBeat Ira Winderman
Just got off the phone with an agent who said, "It's all going to get done today." That's what he says, not what me says.

[Roy H.]

The value of their franchise would be diminished immensely. Especially if there is no league anymore.

That's billions of dollars down the tubes.

How much did the last lockout hurt franchise values? 

[Interceptor]

But your operating under assumptions and speculations, not fact. Every report out there has 17 of the 30 NBA teams losing money at the end of the day.

And if/when the season gets canceled, now 30 of 30 NBA teams lose money at the end of the day. They don't have player payroll, but they have other expenses, and they are losing tons of game revenue!

Honesty doesn't even enter into it. There's no value in winning a "PR war" if you can't use it to your advantage, and neither side can. Fans aren't at the table, and they couldn't punish one side or the other even if they wanted to.

[Kiorrik]

This is almost as exciting as an actual basketball game.


...

No not really.

[hpantazo]

This is almost as exciting as an actual basketball game.


...

No not really.

the main thing that the games and the negotiations have in common is that Stern influences the outcome of both of them

[StartOrien]

But your operating under assumptions and speculations, not fact. Every report out there has 17 of the 30 NBA teams losing money at the end of the day.

And if/when the season gets canceled, now 30 of 30 NBA teams lose money at the end of the day. They don't have player payroll, but they have other expenses, and they are losing tons of game revenue!

Honesty doesn't even enter into it. There's no value in winning a "PR war" if you can't use it to your advantage, and neither side can. Fans aren't at the table, and they couldn't punish one side or the other even if they wanted to.

1. What other expenses?
2. The figures they're presenting state they're losing money. That game revenue (amongst other things) is being divided up and costing them money.
3. Again, PR has a lot to do with this. I thought I laid things out pretty well before.

[Kiorrik]

the main thing that the games and the negotiations have in common is that Stern influences the outcome of both of them

Touche.

Well at the very least that means we'll have some more basketball soon :p

[hpantazo]

the main thing that the games and the negotiations have in common is that Stern influences the outcome of both of them

Touche.

Well at the very least that means we'll have some more basketball soon :p

yes, I think we will, and many players will get screwed in the process: business as usual