2011 CB Draft Eastern Playoffs: 1st Round

[Fafnir]

How does Hedo Turkoglu fit into all this? I understand that's he's a facilitator on offense, but what about on defense?

That's my biggest question as well.

[StartOrien]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsU_VOjxWOM&feature=related

___ _____ __ ____

[KCattheStripe]

The silence out of Pawnee is deafening. Time to start calling them the Papa Doc Pacers:

Parental Discretion is advised.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2hiFbuQ-Qw

[riah32]

Well I'll start the talking in this one. I think where this series is one is at Sg , PF and the bench. I think that Rip Hamilton and Scola are both better than Jodie Meeks and Taj Gibson. I'll give new york the pg position but only by a little because I think both my backup pg options are better than theirs. I'll give them the center postion but only at starters because duncan is a little better than Perkins although I think Perkins would give duncan fits and I think my height gives the knicks fits.

[StartOrien]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDvLxGoxEso

he's here

[Who]

Luol Deng is one of the more effective defensive players against Kevin Durant. Deng has the size, strength, length and defensive chops to really bother Durant. 

Deron Williams is going to be a huge problem for Mike Conley. Too much size and power.

[riah32]

Luol Deng is one of the more effective defensive players against Kevin Durant. Deng has the size, strength, length and defensive chops to really bother Durant. 

Deron Williams is going to be a huge problem for Mike Conley. Too much size and power.

According to  http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=duranke01&p2=denglu01

this is the head to head matchup.

Player G W L GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Luol Deng 5 3 2 5 35.2 7.4 16.2 .457 1.0 2.2 .455 1.0 2.4 .417 2.2 3.4 5.6 2.2 0.8 0.4 2.6 1.8 16.8

Kevin Durant 5 2 3 5 35.2 7.4 17.0 .435 1.4 4.2 .333 9.4 10.4 .904 1.0 5.4 6.4 2.6 1.6 1.0 4.2 2.2 25.6

Durant still averages 25 a game against Deng. SO not sure he'll cause that much trouble.

Heres the deron vs Conoly #'s

Player G W L GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Deron Williams 8 7 1 8 37.1 6.6 14.3 .465 1.8 4.5 .389 4.5 5.1 .878 0.3 2.3 2.5 11.6 1.3 0.3 4.8 2.6 19.5
Mike Conley 8 1 7 6 28.5 3.8 8.0 .469 0.6 2.1 .294 4.0 4.8 .842 0.6 1.5 2.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 2.1 2.0 12.1

[Roy H.]

The problem I see for the Pacers is that at some point Randolph is going to shoot them out of the playoffs.  Last year, in Grizzlies playoff losses, he shot 37.6%.  The bad thing is, he averaged 15.5 shots per game in those losses, even when it was clear his shot was off.

When he is hot, Zach Randolph is a stellar player.  When he's not, his team is in trouble, because he has no conception of "shot selection".  That's the reason why, in an ideal world, Randolph would be a second option, rather than the primary focal point on offense.

Ultimately, Randolph will go cold, and the Pacers will lose.  However, I don't think that's going to be in the first round.

[Gainesville Celtic]

It's a shame that we have to take on one of our Atlantic Division brethren since we have such great respect for the other teams.


That said, I think the Knicks beat the Nets in 5 (with most of the games being closer than a 5-game series indicates). Here's our breakdown -- assuming 7-8 man rotations for the playoffs:


PG -- Deron Williams vs. Mike Conley (Edge: Knicks)
Conley is a very nice PG, but Williams is the best PG in the NBA. Conley also gives up considerable size to Williams, an advantage we plan to exploit. Williams in 7-1 vs. Conley in their careers with Conley averaging lower pts/asst than his normal averages.

SG -- Jodie Meeks & Nick Young vs. Rip Hamilton & Rudy Fernandez (Edge: Even)
As I pointed out in my Press Conference, Young is the 6th man, but will play more mins than Meeks. Meeks can start the game chasing Hamilton off screens, then a fresh Young will come in and give Hamilton (and Rudy) a taste of his own medicine -- running the older Rip off, through, around screens. I think all-in-all this is a draw.

SF -- Luol Deng vs. Kevin Durant (VERY Slight Edge: Nets)
Durant is an all-NBA talent, but Deng is the kind of long defender that will give Durant problems. With a bigger PG on Conley, Durant will have a harder time getting good passes for his shots. If we can hold Durant, the Nets main source of offense, to 25 pts/gm --- something Deng has done in their 5 head-to-head matchups --- the Knicks win going away.


PF -- Taj Gibson/Dujaun Blair vs. Luis Scola (Edge: Even)
in a combined 42min/gm last year Gibson/Blair put in 15/13/2 + 2blk +2stl; the 30-year old Scola's numbers over per42 were 23/10/3 +1blk +1stl... With 2 guys carrying the load we think the younger, fresher legs and big bodies can play the more talented Scola to a draw.

Note: In crunch time -- i.e. last 5 mins, we'll move Tim Duncan onto Scola if need be, letting Gibson take the offensviely-challenged Perkins.

C -- Tim Duncan vs. Kendrick Perkins/Joel Anthony (Edge: Knicks)
I love Perk, but Duncan is a champion who's game isn't based on pure power -- which Perk can neutralize (see Howard, Dwight). This isn't as big an advantage as years past and Perk will make Duncan work, but in the end the Nets are hurt by not having a Center that can come close to matching Duncan offensively (Perk will be lucky to get 5 points vs. Duncan...)


In our opinion, this series comes down to:

A. Deron Williams' advantage over Conley
B. Deng's ability to slow Durant (no one stops him)
C. Knicks' frontcourt edge (esp. Duncan > Perkins

KNICKS in 5. Tommy Points to Riah for putting together a quality team.

[Roy H.]

It wouldn't shock me if this was the one big upset of the first round.  I'm not super comfortable betting against Durant, Duncan looked bad in last year's playoffs, and I'm not sold on Gibson / Meeks as starters.

I'll be interested in reading arguments.  One of the keys for me is weighing the frontcourt mismatches.  Duncan is quite a bit better than Perk/Anthony, while Scola trumps Gibson/Blair.  The battle in the paint may decide this.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Luol Deng is one of the more effective defensive players against Kevin Durant. Deng has the size, strength, length and defensive chops to really bother Durant. 

Deron Williams is going to be a huge problem for Mike Conley. Too much size and power.

According to  http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=duranke01&p2=denglu01

this is the head to head matchup.

Player G W L GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Luol Deng 5 3 2 5 35.2 7.4 16.2 .457 1.0 2.2 .455 1.0 2.4 .417 2.2 3.4 5.6 2.2 0.8 0.4 2.6 1.8 16.8

Kevin Durant 5 2 3 5 35.2 7.4 17.0 .435 1.4 4.2 .333 9.4 10.4 .904 1.0 5.4 6.4 2.6 1.6 1.0 4.2 2.2 25.6

Durant still averages 25 a game against Deng. SO not sure he'll cause that much trouble.

Heres the deron vs Conoly #'s

Player G W L GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Deron Williams 8 7 1 8 37.1 6.6 14.3 .465 1.8 4.5 .389 4.5 5.1 .878 0.3 2.3 2.5 11.6 1.3 0.3 4.8 2.6 19.5
Mike Conley 8 1 7 6 28.5 3.8 8.0 .469 0.6 2.1 .294 4.0 4.8 .842 0.6 1.5 2.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 2.1 2.0 12.1

That 25 ppg for Durant is 3-5 pts below his last 2 full seasons (27 & 30 ppg), which is not insignificant for one of the league's best scorers. Durants 43% FG is 4 points lower than his 47% FG in the regular season so he's working harder to get less points. The goal is to slow Durant and make him work on Defense (Deng's 16 ppg vs. Durant is only 1 point less than his average)

Conley's assists are down 2 full assists (6.6 reg season, 4.6 vs. DWill) and his TO's stay the same. In a vacuum this isn't the end of the world, but guys like Hamilton, Scola and Perk will rely on the PG to get their points.

[Gainesville Celtic]

It wouldn't shock me if this was the one big upset of the first round.  I'm not super comfortable betting against Durant, Duncan looked bad in last year's playoffs, and I'm not sold on Gibson / Meeks as starters.

I'll be interested in reading arguments.  One of the keys for me is weighing the frontcourt mismatches.  Duncan is quite a bit better than Perk/Anthony, while Scola trumps Gibson/Blair.  The battle in the paint may decide this.

This after I gift-wrapped next year's baseball title for you Roy? 

I think one of the glaring weaknesses of NJ's team is the Center position vs. Duncan. Neither Perk nor Anthony can score consistently... Duncan's advantage over Perk/Anthony is far greater than Scola over Gibson/Blair.

And like we mentioned, when if the game is on the line, we will move Duncan onto Scola and let Gibson, Blair or Turiaf take the offensively-challenged Perkins.

Smart not to bet against Durant, but the one KEY difference here is that unlike OKC (Westbrook, Harden) the NJ Nets don't have another player who can create their own offense --- which is necessary with Deng on Durant.

Finally, i think you're underestimting the advantage Deron Williams has over Conley and the effect that has on the Nets' frontcourt

[Who]

Rip Hamilton will have a large advantage against Jodie Meeks.

That battle at SG will be closer once Nick Young enters the game though.

[nickagneta]

KC: Its been an NBA adage for some time that experience wins championships. You are playing a team where three of its members have three years experience playing together as a front court and who's team went to the real Western Conference Semi-Finals this year with Mike Conley as their PG and not Tony Parker, a player with three championship rings, a Finals MVP Award, and much more big game experience than Conley.

Meanwhile, your team has a second year center that played on a bad team, a third year PG that only just sniff the playoffs this year, a 4th year SG that has never seen the playoffs, and a big man bench that is still young and mostly never seen the playoffs.

Sounds like a team that is destined for a first round loss given their lack of big game experience because for the most part, teams with this type of youth need a transcendent superstar to get them farther into the playoffs and your Celtics team is lacking that.

[Lucky17]

I'll try to participate in this thread as best I can.

Some great matchups in this series: Granger vs. Wallace, and the two starting frontcourts.

Granger will need to be on top of his game in this series. Wallace's strength and mobility will certainly make things difficult for him. Should Granger try to work down low, he'll find Haslem and Noah ready to match his physicality.

I also think Washington will need to lean heavily on Aldridge in this series. Washington's reserve bigs (Smith, Anderson) rely more on the outside/finesse game, and this could be something that my more physical players could exploit. Will Aldridge wear down playing 36-40 minutes a game against our physical defenders? Haslem and Pachulia will bang as hard and as much as they can on him.

Keeping Gortat on the floor is another key to Washington's success in this series; Noah will look to draw as many fouls as possible against him, and the rookie Kanter may be pressed into service.

I also think our roster's athleticism and speed could be a problem for Washington. Our speedy guards and our quick and athletic (but still strong) forwards in Outlaw, Wallace, Thompson, and Noah will look to run at every opportunity; we'll hope to wear down Washington's starters, or exploit the lack of speed among Washington's bench forwards.

Lastly, our veteran leaders have significant playoff experience. I don't view being the road team in this matchup as a disadvantage of any real significance. If this series goes seven games, I believe we'd come out on top.