2011 CB Draft Eastern Playoffs: 1st Round

[StartOrien]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz9VzshE0_4

WELCOME TO
 THE PLAYOFFS
 ARE ORIEN

Welcome one and all, I'll be your host for the evening. For those who don't know me, allow me to introduce myself: I'm the god of grammar, the sultan of sentence structure, the ayatolla of blogatolla.

But the people who do know me call me the champ.

KC, I read your INSUFFERABLE post to start things off. And in between the pandering and the catch phrases, I saw what I see in everybody else on this site.

PURE JEALOUSY.

Jealous of what I've done. Jealous what I'm about to do. Jealous that I'm far and away, without a shadow of  a doubt: The best looking man on this site.

I've ridden in limousines you couldn't fathom, flew in private jets, you couldn't draw and been to heights higher than you could ever dream.

And dreams, KC, are dangerous:

Because, KC we know in your heart of hearts, each night before sleeping in your race car, you slip on you replica Marc Gasol swingman jersey and remind pray to the gods of hoop:

"Oh Lord, please bring my Memphis Grizzlies a championship."

And it'll be this dream that'll intercept your pipe dream of EVER winning a Celticsblog championship:

Because of those two monsters on the block: The reformed Randolph getting hot in pistol, and Marc Gasol being, as we both proclaim him to be; the second best center in the league.

Because Rudy Gay's back, and ready to play the role you continuously tout that he can play: The perfect wing compliment to a team that commits it self to the post. The superstar whose ready to sacrifice for the greater team. The guy who'll feed the post when necessary, and light up a weaker, Hedo Turkoglu-like defender when needed.

And because we know the difference between Mike Conley and Tony "Pretty Boy" Parker:  Tony Parker is the Point Guard Mike Conley can dream of. The point guard with championship experience, who shoots exceptionally well from the field and doesn't fold in the playoffs.

And because that bench is a thing of beauty. Probably the best the league has EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEVVVVVEEERRRRRRRRR seen:

The defense and heart of Chuck Hayes, The complimentary change of pace shooting in Channing Frye, the speed and length of Paul George & Trevor Ariza and the emerging star in Jeff Teague.

So KC, It'll be your dream that'll destroy dream.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLDSE7RHvno

[nickagneta]

I really have no questions as I think this the most lopsided matchup in the playoffs. Should be a sweep and some rest for Philly. The overall team they have can not be beaten by a one man team led by a superstar who is a PG.

[StartOrien]

Ultimately, Randolph will go cold, and the Pacers will lose.  However, I don't think that's going to be in the first round.

Yee have little faith in Tony Parker and Rudy Gay.

The playoff Memphis version needed Z Bo every night, Pawnee has significantly more fire power all over. We don't hope for it to happen, but we're ready for it if it does.

[riah32]

It's a shame that we have to take on one of our Atlantic Division brethren since we have such great respect for the other teams.


That said, I think the Knicks beat the Nets in 5 (with most of the games being closer than a 5-game series indicates). Here's our breakdown -- assuming 7-8 man rotations for the playoffs:


PG -- Deron Williams vs. Mike Conley (Edge: Knicks)
Conley is a very nice PG, but Williams is the best PG in the NBA. Conley also gives up considerable size to Williams, an advantage we plan to exploit. Williams in 7-1 vs. Conley in their careers with Conley averaging lower pts/asst than his normal averages.

SG -- Jodie Meeks & Nick Young vs. Rip Hamilton & Rudy Fernandez (Edge: Even)
As I pointed out in my Press Conference, Young is the 6th man, but will play more mins than Meeks. Meeks can start the game chasing Hamilton off screens, then a fresh Young will come in and give Hamilton (and Rudy) a taste of his own medicine -- running the older Rip off, through, around screens. I think all-in-all this is a draw.

SF -- Luol Deng vs. Kevin Durant (VERY Slight Edge: Nets)
Durant is an all-NBA talent, but Deng is the kind of long defender that will give Durant problems. With a bigger PG on Conley, Durant will have a harder time getting good passes for his shots. If we can hold Durant, the Nets main source of offense, to 25 pts/gm --- something Deng has done in their 5 head-to-head matchups --- the Knicks win going away.


PF -- Taj Gibson/Dujaun Blair vs. Luis Scola (Edge: Even)
in a combined 42min/gm last year Gibson/Blair put in 15/13/2 + 2blk +2stl; the 30-year old Scola's numbers over per42 were 23/10/3 +1blk +1stl... With 2 guys carrying the load we think the younger, fresher legs and big bodies can play the more talented Scola to a draw.

Note: In crunch time -- i.e. last 5 mins, we'll move Tim Duncan onto Scola if need be, letting Gibson take the offensviely-challenged Perkins.

C -- Tim Duncan vs. Kendrick Perkins/Joel Anthony (Edge: Knicks)
I love Perk, but Duncan is a champion who's game isn't based on pure power -- which Perk can neutralize (see Howard, Dwight). This isn't as big an advantage as years past and Perk will make Duncan work, but in the end the Nets are hurt by not having a Center that can come close to matching Duncan offensively (Perk will be lucky to get 5 points vs. Duncan...)


In our opinion, this series comes down to:

A. Deron Williams' advantage over Conley
B. Deng's ability to slow Durant (no one stops him)
C. Knicks' frontcourt edge (esp. Duncan > Perkins

KNICKS in 5. Tommy Points to Riah for putting together a quality team.

I dont think your front court is that much better than mine. Your forgetting I have Charlie V and Drew Gooden to space the floor if need be and I think Drew Gooden could be affected agaisnt duncan playing the center spot. I would also play Charlie V at the center postion as well. Joel Anthony probably wouldnt play as much this series.

[StartOrien]

Also, as much as Ariza is a good bench wing and Parker an upgrade on Conley, the real Grizzlies relied on tremendously athletic, experienced and versatile wing depth that I see lacking with your team. How does you team make up for this, and then get past farther than the real Grizzlies got?

I disagree with you as far as wing depth:

I'd take Gay, Lee, Ariza and George over Battier, TA, Mayo and Young.

[Roy H.]

I would also play Charlie V at the center postion as well

I think some of my support for the Nets just eroded.

[Who]

I would also play Charlie V at the center postion as well

I think some of my support for the Nets just eroded.

Yeah, I wouldn't do that.

No Charlie V and no Drew Gooden at the five spot. Four spot only and limited minutes.

Your team defense will really struggle with either of those players anchoring your defense. It'll gift the opposition with a lot of high percentage shot attempts.

[Lucky17]

Lucky: In a very evenly matched series, the weakest link I see in either team is your starting back court's defense. Your back court offense is obvious with Smith. Terry and Nash, but none have never been known for playing really any defense whatsoever.

Meanwhile, Washington, has a group of back court players that might not be as elite in some skills as your back court is but are a group of more real rounded players that can play both ways. If they can slow down your back court any, it looks like they should be able to do what they want on offense which would open space for Granger and Aldridge, two very under rated players who have come into their own as 2nd tier stars, IMO.

I had a reply for this lost by a connection issue.

I'll summarize: my guards may not be good individual defenders, despite decent steal numbers (Terry and Smith both better than one per game last year, from opportunistic playing of passing lanes).

We'll operate on a "bend, not break" philosophy on D. Our frontcourt's quickness and defensive abilities means they should be able to play effective pick-and-roll/help defense once the ball nears the paint. We'll try to make Washington beat us by making jump shots.

[StartOrien]

SO and action: You modeled your team after the real life Memphis Grizzlies, a team that made the Western Conference Semi-Finals this year. But some people said the reason they did so well is because of the absence of Rudy Gay and the insertion of Shane battier, I savvy veteran and leader who helped glue the team together and established firmly ZBo as the focus of the offense.

I really thought Action gave a great breakdown:

Beginning the season, Memphis did win at a 54% clip, but let's break this down more:

From October to December, Memphis started: Conley-Mayo-Gay-Randolph-Gasol 15 times and the team had a 4-11 record during that time.

From October to the time of Gay's injury, Memphis started: Conley-TA/Young-Gay-Randolph-Gasol and the team had a 27-15 (64%) record.


I think this shows that the problem with the Grizzlies starting lineup in the beginning half of the year was not Gay, but in fact, Mayo.  So, the Grizzlies with Gay in the starting lineup without Mayo was actually more successful than the Grizzlies starting lineup without Gay (60% clip you say, I haven't verified).

There's another dynamic to this that I think will make this team even more successful than that 64% win team.  Before Gay went down, he was an absolute fantastic player.  Athletic, can score, can shoot, can do almost anything.  I think Memphis let Gay do too much before and it wasn't their fault - he was very good and they were winning at a good clip with Mayo benched.  I think it took Gay's injury for Memphis, and the NBA, to realize how much more effective their offense is capable of being when they pound it down low more often with Z-Bo and Gasol.  We are going to attempt to be as offensively dominant down low as Memphis was this postseason with Rudy being more of a complementary player with the starters (think Shane Battier times a million) and a focal point of the offense when he plays in those lineups with the bench.

[indeedproceed]

Knicks:
PG - Deron Williams / Keyon Dooling
SG - Jodie Meeks / Nick Young / Raja Bell
SF - Luol Deng / Austin Daye / Wesley Johnson
PF - Taj Gibson / DeJuan Blair
C - Tim Duncan / Ronny Turiaf / Jordan Hill

Nets:
PG: Conley, Irving
SG: Rip, Rudy Fernandez
SF: Kevin Durant, CJ Miles
PF: Luis Scola. Charlie V
C: Kendrick Perkins, Joel Anthony

Thoughts:

1) Kevin Durant has not fared especially well against Luol Deng. I wouldn't call his H2H matchups a loss per say, but I sure wouldn't call them a win either. Durant's FG% has dropped to around 43% (down from a career ave of 46%+), his 3pt% is down to 33% (down from 36), and the only thing he's hitting his career averages on is his rebounds.

2) Mike Conley has seemed to do pretty well against Deron Williams. Not better per say, but if you want to call Deron the best PG in basketball (which many did walking into this season), Conley Jr has done as well as one could hope against him, to the point where I'd call it Williams>>Conley, instead of the expected Williams>>>>Conley. Take that for what its worth.

3) Rip Hamilton is a big advantage over Jodie Meeks. I'm not even going to bother with those stats.

4) Scola has dominated Gibson in their matchups. Just dominated.

5) Duncan has traditionally dominated Perkins in their matchups, but he hasn't played Perkins since 2009.  

[StartOrien]

Pretty interesting PF&C matchups here, how do you guys think things would play out?

[nickagneta]

Also, as much as Ariza is a good bench wing and Parker an upgrade on Conley, the real Grizzlies relied on tremendously athletic, experienced and versatile wing depth that I see lacking with your team. How does you team make up for this, and then get past farther than the real Grizzlies got?

I disagree with you as far as wing depth:

I'd take Gay, Lee, Ariza and George over Battier, TA, Mayo and Young.

Then how do you account for the fact that before Gay went down for the year Memphis played .540 ball and then after they played .600 ball?

Also, your comparison is wrong. You have Gay, Lee, Ariza and George the real life Griz had Battier, TA, Mayo, Young AND Gay.

[Lucky17]

LaMarcus Aldridge will terrorize Udonis Haslem and/or Joakim Noah so it's not all bad news for the Bullets. Haslem is too short and struggles too much against against length in the low post. Aldridge is bigger, longer and stronger than Noah. Noah doesn't have enough physical toughness to stop Aldridge. I think the Bulls are going to have major problems slowing Aldridge down.

Aldridge doesn't operate in the post all that much, though, does he? Nearly 2/3 of his offense last year came from jump shots. Will he be able to change to a back-to-the-basket player?

Aldridge spends a huge amount of time in the low post.

He used not to but he made major progress in this department last year. Far superior post scorer compared to years past.

Yes, he's now up to 10 FGA per game from within 9 feet.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=LaMarcus%20Aldridge

However, he's shooting less than 43% from the floor when he's not at the rim, which is roughly 11 of his 17 FGA per game, or roughly 2/3 of his offense.

[StartOrien]

Question for the Nets:

To me, where you could find a lot of success in this matchup would be Richard Hamilton. How do you see the matchup against a young defender like Meeks playing out?

[Fafnir]

LaMarcus Aldridge will terrorize Udonis Haslem and/or Joakim Noah so it's not all bad news for the Bullets. Haslem is too short and struggles too much against against length in the low post. Aldridge is bigger, longer and stronger than Noah. Noah doesn't have enough physical toughness to stop Aldridge. I think the Bulls are going to have major problems slowing Aldridge down.

Aldridge doesn't operate in the post all that much, though, does he? Nearly 2/3 of his offense last year came from jump shots. Will he be able to change to a back-to-the-basket player?

Aldridge spends a huge amount of time in the low post.

He used not to but he made major progress in this department last year. Far superior post scorer compared to years past.

Yes, he's now up to 10 FGA per game from within 9 feet.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=LaMarcus%20Aldridge

However, he's shooting less than 43% from the floor when he's not at the rim, which is roughly 11 of his 17 FGA per game, or roughly 2/3 of his offense.

43% from the floor is pretty good when you're taking mid-range jump shots.