2011 CB Draft Northwest Division Press Conference

[indeedproceed]

Lowry had to wait for an injury and malcontent to get Brook's job.

Is there a Bill Belichick on this team? This same team went 11-5 with a guy who hadn't taken a snap in a real game since high school. As great as Brady is and he is great. He is arguably playing for the greatest coach ever in ANY sport.

I'm just saying; how a guy gets his starting position isn't all that important. It's what he does when he gets it.

Lowry went at Brooks every day in practice mano y mano which you can't really do in football... It's different. Lowry was never good enough to beat him out or take his spot head 2 head. Brooks was let go because of his contract demands and attitude more so then his play.

Wrong. Brooks was let go because Lowry clearly out-played him when given the chance. Brooks was not traded because of his contract demands. His contract demands might have hurt his play, and he was definitely better the year before, but never in Brooks' career did his play on both sides of the ball compare to Lowry's once he took the starting role.

[Kane3387]

Lowry had to wait for an injury and malcontent to get Brook's job.

Is there a Bill Belichick on this team? This same team went 11-5 with a guy who hadn't taken a snap in a real game since high school. As great as Brady is and he is great. He is arguably playing for the greatest coach ever in ANY sport.

I'm just saying; how a guy gets his starting position isn't all that important. It's what he does when he gets it.

Lowry went at Brooks every day in practice mano y mano which you can't really do in football... It's different. Lowry was never good enough to beat him out or take his spot head 2 head. Brooks was let go because of his contract demands and attitude more so then his play.

Wrong. Brooks was let go because Lowry clearly out-played him when given the chance. Brooks was not traded because of his contract demands. His contract demands might have hurt his play, and he was definitely better the year before, but never in Brooks' career did his play on both sides of the ball compare to Lowry's once he took the starting role.

Brooks averaged 20 ppg a game and won Most Improved Player the year before last. Also in the playoffs he was the main thorn in the Laker's side when they took LA to 7 games. Not Lowry.

[Kane3387]

I worry a lot about Pierce and Gartnett and Allen going forward. Look at how superior athleticism defined the Playoffs for the Cs. Garnett, Particulary against athletic 4s with good footwork struggled he struggled a lot. Pierce looks to be slowing down as well, and iirc his shooting dropped a bit this past year.

I'm not saying they're liabilities or anything, but superstar talent?

Pierce had a career high in field goal percentage this year.  I think the two of them are still superstars, and Ray is still a top 6 SG.  Literally any of these upcoming years could be their last though, especially if they get injured.  I don't think these are the type of guys that will stick around like Reggie Miller to average 12 points and come off the bench just because they can.

To Kane:  No I personally don't think they'll reach that point this upcoming season, or even the one after that.  I said when they got here we'd have 5-6 good years.  But it's still always a small concern with older guys.

Right, his 3pt shot dropped a little, but his FG% went up.

Compared to the year before when he was hitting everything.  He still shot a very solid 37% slightly better than his career average.  I guess Ray's 44% percent made him look pretty bad though (who had career highs in both).

I think of Ray and Paul as pretty much the same as they were in 08.  KG is the only one who has lost a step.

Pierce is still a GREAT player and SuperStar.

Some consider Paul Pierce over the hill. Celtics fans think he's better than LeBron. The truth is that he's somewhere in between. Consistently underrated throughout his career, Pierce is still performing at a high level despite being nearly 34. He's top five in PER among similar small forwards and leads that group in true shooting percentage.

[indeedproceed]

Lowry had to wait for an injury and malcontent to get Brook's job.

Is there a Bill Belichick on this team? This same team went 11-5 with a guy who hadn't taken a snap in a real game since high school. As great as Brady is and he is great. He is arguably playing for the greatest coach ever in ANY sport.

I'm just saying; how a guy gets his starting position isn't all that important. It's what he does when he gets it.

Lowry went at Brooks every day in practice mano y mano which you can't really do in football... It's different. Lowry was never good enough to beat him out or take his spot head 2 head. Brooks was let go because of his contract demands and attitude more so then his play.

Wrong. Brooks was let go because Lowry clearly out-played him when given the chance. Brooks was not traded because of his contract demands. His contract demands might have hurt his play, and he was definitely better the year before, but never in Brooks' career did his play on both sides of the ball compare to Lowry's once he took the starting role.

Brooks averaged 20 ppg a game and won Most Improved Player the year before last. Also in the playoffs he was the main thorn in the Laker's side when they took LA to 7 games. Not Lowry.

Yeah, and as a sixth man, one-way scoring microwave Aaron Brooks is a good piece. As a starting point guard he kinda stinks. He can't play defense, he isn't a distributor, and he isn't Lowry's equal or peer as a starting point guard.

[Roy H.]

I'm liking the debate between Utah and Portland; there's no concession in this division.  Hopefully you guys meet in the playoffs.

[indeedproceed]

Forgive me, Al Jefferson.

The Jazz’s real problem has been their defense. Last season, the Jazz ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. This season, they rank 2oth. There are a number of reasons why the Jazz aren’t playing as well defensively as they did the last season, but the biggest one is likely Al Jefferson.

There’s a lot to like about Al Jefferson’s game. At 26 years old, he’s one of the few remaining pure post-up players in the NBA, and his jump hook is a thing of beauty. He’s capable of scoring from the block in a way that most young players simply aren’t taught to anymore, and that’s why he was the centerpiece of the trade that got the Celtics KG.

However, no team has ever been able to play decent def,ense while starting Al Jefferson, and that hasn’t changed now that Jefferson is in Utah. Starting in the 06-07 season, when Jefferson first became a starter for the Celtics, here are the number of points per 100 possessions Jefferson’s teams have given up when he was on/off the floor:

06-07 Celtics: 108.5 with Jefferson/102.8 without Jefferson

07-08 Timberwolves: 116.0 with Jefferson/103.9 without Jefferson

08-09 Timberwolves: 112.3 with Jefferson/113.2 without Jefferson

09-10 Timberwolves: 113.1 with Jefferson/111.2 without Jefferson

10-11 Jazz: 112.0 with Jefferson/101.3 without Jefferson

As you can see, the only teams that didn’t play significantly worse defense with Jefferson on the floor were the 08-09 and 09-10 Timberwolves, and that was only because they were so bad defensively Jefferson wasn’t able to do much damage. +/- is a very dangerous stat, but Al Jefferson has started for six seasons for three different teams, and all of them have played horrible defense when he is on the floor.

None of this disputes anecdotal evidence, either: Jefferson can block shots, but he’s extremely slow-moving on defense, doesn’t expend much energy on that end, and has long been considered a defensive liability.

[mgent]

To Kane:  No I personally don't think they'll reach that point this upcoming season, or even the one after that.  I said when they got here we'd have 5-6 good years.  But it's still always a small concern with older guys.

Mgent,

Cool man.  I agree with you but sadly I think DA breaks it up which is likely  the best move. Still I though I have loved these teams the last few years and it is sad this era will be coming to an end.

I think they're a little worse each year than they were the last. The moments of 'star quality' minutes are getting fewer and farther between.

But I don't ever think they'll have a 'breakdown' season, where their game is just gone, like Steve Francis experienced, or others. Just a little worse, til they can't take it anymore.

Won't be this year, probably next though.

Pierce:

YR    MP   FG%   3P   3PA   3P%   FT   FTA   FT%  TRB   AST   STL   BLK   PTS
'08  35.9   .464   1.8   4.6   .392   5.1   6.1   .843     5.1    4.5   1.3   0.5         19.6
'09  37.5   .457   1.5   3.8   .391   5.7   6.8   .830     5.6    3.6   1.0   0.3         20.5
'10  34.0   .472   1.5   3.7   .414   5.2   6.1   .852     4.4    3.1   1.2   0.4         18.3
'11  34.7   .497   1.4   3.7   .374   4.8   5.6   .860     5.4    3.3   1.0   0.6         18.9


Ray:

YR  MP   FG%   3P   3PA   3P%   FT   FTA   FT%   TRB   AST   STL   BLK   PTS
‘08   35.9   .445   2.5   6.2   .398   2.9   3.2   .907   3.7   3.1   0.9   0.2      17.4
‘09   36.4   .480   2.5   6.2   .409   3.0   3.2   .952   3.5   2.8   0.9   0.2      18.2
‘10   35.2   .477   1.8   5.0   .363   2.9   3.2   .913   3.2   2.6   0.8   0.3      16.3
‘11   36.1   .491   2.1   4.7   .444   2.4   2.7   .881   3.4   2.7   1.0   0.2      16.5
                                       


Pretty identical, except Pierce was averaging an extra assist 4 years ago.  If the star moments are getting fewer then that means they're getting more consistent.

I think they're settling in, like an old house.

But don't think they're the same now as they were 3 years ago. That's just not true. You watched the games, same as I did.

I did, and maybe it feels like that because we won the first year and then lost 3 years in a row, but the numbers clearly state different.  Pierce has less 30-40 point games, but apparently he's gotten more consistent and more efficient.  Ray Allen still had some huge games last year and he's increased both his FG and 3pt numbers by about .050%!!! since he's gotten here.

If they split up again could they carry the load for their team in the same manner that they did when were 30?  Absolutely not.  But they've proven to be just as capable in the same role as when they got here.

[mgent]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

[Who]

A.Brooks was traded because of his contract demands.

That is why they looked to get back another backup PG who was still on a cheap salary (preferably rookie contract) and still had year(s) left on his deal. They ended up with G.Dragic who had one extra year left at $2mil on his contract before they'd have to pony up extra cash to keep him.

K.Lowry was given the starting spot permanently because of his superior player in comparison to A.Brooks this season.

[StartOrien]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

[mgent]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

[action781]

Also, you mentioned him being a "better rebounder" while averaging .5 rebounds per game more (1.0 more after Brooks was traded, but I don't see how Brooks could have impacted that much, so I think that spike was a little fluky).  You now say he's better at getting to the line.  Felton = 3.4 fta with NYK.  Lowry = 3.4 fta all season and 3.6 fta after Brooks was traded. 

3.5 (Lowry's per-36 numbers on '11), FTA's on 11.4 FGA's (also p36 on 11) is a 21% better ratio than 3.2 FTA on 13.2 FGA.

I had no idea those were the numbers you were referring to when saying that Lowry gets to the line more often than Felton.  I suppose you win.  I still find that % relatively low in significance considering the few times they go to the line per game and that the total number is pretty similar, but I could understand you finding that % significant and I'll respect that.

Lol, trick you? Glossing over. Oh, alright then.

Lowry's fg% increased "substantially" after Brooks was traded?  It increased by 1%.  You are correct that his 3pt% did increase substantially during that 22 game period though.  At a much higher volume also, impressively.  He must have known that I needed them during my fantasy basketball postseason push.

Lowry's FG% before the Brooks trade: 41.25%
After: 44.65%

You win, I was wrong.  I didn't know the exact day of the trade, just that it was near the trade deadline, so I used pre and post all-star splits to get that 1%.  Looks like a 1/10 and 3/8 game between the all star game and the trade affected those % differences from 1% to 3%, but I'll trust that you are right considering you have it to 2 decimal places.  Surprising, didn't think it could possibly effect that much.  And I used those splits genuinely out of convenience and not knowing when the actual trade went through.

Also, if you're wondering "Did he like download all of Lowry's game logs and figure this out himself?"

Yes. Yes I did. To the game. Also let me tell you that figuring out REB%, ASST%, STEAL%, and other advanced metrics is like...super hard.

Did I mention, you win?  How do you download game logs?  I'm a math guy and I like doing those kind of things.


Question though:  if you plan on Williams getting:

28 minutes a game, 10FGA's, 52% shooting and 39% 3pt shooting for 15 pts and 6 boards.

then why on earth is he only playing 28 minutes per game?  Gallinari played 34 and 30 min per game between 2 NBA playoff teams.  If Williams is already better in almost every facet of the game, shouldn't he be playing at least that much?  Which would then increase those # totals?  (Which is what led me to presume you think he's going to play at an all-star level)

[KCattheStripe]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

[indeedproceed]

Question though:  if you plan on Williams getting:

28 minutes a game, 10FGA's, 52% shooting and 39% 3pt shooting for 15 pts and 6 boards.

then why on earth is he only playing 28 minutes per game?  Gallinari played 34 and 30 min per game between 2 NBA playoff teams.  If Williams is already better in almost every facet of the game, shouldn't he be playing at least that much?  Which would then increase those # totals?  (Which is what led me to presume you think he's going to play at an all-star level)

3 Reasons:
1) Defense, both his and theirs. He'll have a really tough time defending NBA 3's on a regular basis, especially if he's fatigued. Other teams will also gameplan around him more intensely if he starts and plays 33 minutes a night, which runs the risk greater that he'll have rookie mistakes be much more costly. 

2) Post players in the NBA are more physically demanding, the game is faster, the players set harder picks, they're harder to intimidate, you get less plays 'off' where you aren't challenged as hard. Rising to meet that challenge night in, night out is a tough thing for even the best rookie to manage. It takes a truly special kind of player as a rookie to play effective 2-way basketball night in night out and play it at a high level as a starter for 30+ minutes. Maybe Derrick Williams is that guy, but I don't think I need him to be, and I'd rather bring him along slowly.

3) Rookies hit walls. That's why its called a 'Rookie Wall'. Somewhere in the 2nd 3rd of the season to the 3rd 4th, the rookie runs outta juice.

That can be sped along and/or made more painful by playing them too much, and asking too much of them mentally and physically. I think with my plan Derrick Williams gets the minutes he needs, without getting the burden he can't handle.

[action781]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

Same.  You take those 60 win Cavs teams of the last couple years and replace Lebron with Iggy and they become a 40-46 win teams IMO.  That's how much better Lebron is than Iggy.  Because of fit and other pieces, your Philly team won't actually lose 15 wins off of Miami's 58, but I think that proves a point on how much better (or just how plain good) Lebron is and that huge downgrade hurts your comparison.