So does anyone else wanna let me talk them out of thinking that I'm not number 1 in the West?
I do IP. Without Bogut, do you see yourself being any better than the pre-Carmelo NYK (a .500 team) and why? How many more wins do you see Bogut bringing to that team? What do you envision your record being in an 82 game season? I think Sacramento is a 60 win team. At this moment, I don't think you will get over 60 wins in the regular season to pass Sacramento. Convince me that your team will win more than 60 games to be #1 in the west. (And this is a regular season argument, not a comparison to Sacramento)
Ideally, with Bogut Healthy For 75-80 Games: This team is the best team in the draft. We've got the second best defending center in the league, who is able to guard any other opposing center in the league, as well as being the second best help-defending center in the NBA. His presence along with the rest of my roster gives me the ability to match-up with any team. I've got one of the best defending PG's in the NBA, one of the better defending SF's in the NBA, a better than replacement value and improving defender in James Harden, and Andrew Bogut. As long as I can keep Amar'e focused on guarding his man and not worrying about much else, I think defensively I'm right near the top. Off the bench I have capable defenders in Jerebko, Tolliver, and Lopez.
Defense aside, with Bogut I can go big in the halfcourt, with Lowry playing the roll of a 3pt shooting but not as talented passing Rajon Rondo, Amar'e as a more versatile KG, Delfino as a less talented Ray Allen, and James Harden reprising the role of Paul Pierce, running the 2-man game with Amar'e. Bogut's big body will trouble those who rely on tall lanky defenders, and occupy the few legitimate 'big' centers in the league as well in the paint. I've got scoring on the wings, great ball movement due to Lowry/Harden/Delfino/Bogut, and one of the best changeups in the league in Derrick Williams.
My roster versatility also allows that I'll be able to create mismatches on demand when the starting 5 starts to tire, or becomes stagnant as even the best starting 5 are like to do. Derrick Williams should be a handful for all but a few defenders in the NBA, Anthony Morrow is one of the best shooters in the league, and Ramon Sessions is one of the craftiest guards in basketball at getting to the cup and effectively using the P&R.
Why Bogut should be healthy..ish: I'm playing him only 32 minutes a game, cutting down on fatigue, I'm not asking him to carry the load on offense, and most importantly, he'll now be a year and a half removed from that gruesome elbow injury with hobbled him for most of last season. You mentioned his (relatively) low win-shares # from last season, but more telling was his offensive rating, which dipped substantially because of his lower FG%. That was the elbow. Typically his O-rating has been 107 and up, but last season it dropped almost 10 points. With a fully healed arm, that should pop back up again, along with his efficiency, his win-shares, and his overall game.
Why the Pre-Melo NYK comparison is way off-base:
This is assuming you mean a lineup of Lowry-Harden-Delfino-Williams-STAT, with my bench vs their bench.
1) Kyle Lowry is much, much better than Raymond Felton. He's a much better two-way player, and although Felton started off the year strong offensively in NY, he didn't finish it that way, and I think once you adjust to pace (i haven't checked), Lowry's 7 assists in his minutes match up well with Felton's. On top of that, he shot better, defended better, and rebounded better, all with a lower usage rate.
2) James Harden is much better than Landry Fields: Fields as a defender is at least as good as Harden, and in fact is probably better against the bigger 2's. Also, Fields was asked to guard 3's often which is not a confidence I have in Harden. Fields also throws what has been called 'the best inlet pass in basketball'. He shot the 3 better than Harden, and rebounded better. Honestly, I'd love to have him on my team, big fan. But Harden is the better all-around player. He's the better ball-handler, he's the better shot creator, he's the more versatile scorer, and he's the better facilitator. You can run your offense in a pick and roll setting from James Harden. You can't off of Landry Fields.
3) Carlos Delfino suits me just fine: Delfino isn't the athletic scorer Chandler is, but especially if you look at his preconcussion #'s from 09-10 (or even his post-concussion #'s), Delfino is at least as good from outside as Chandler, he's a better defender by every advanced metric available, he's a better facilitator, is a comparable rebounder. I'd rather have Chandler here I guess in terms of pure talent, but in terms of fit, I think Delfino plays the 3 in this set-up better.
Derrick Williams should be better than Gallinari: Derrick Williams hasn't played a NBA minute yet, but his skillset looks to be much more lethal and versatile than Gallo's. Gallo is weak, a good outside shooter, a terrible rebounder, and a passable scorer at the 4. Derrick Williams is strong, an average rebounder, looks like he'll be a comparable if not better outside shooter, and a much, much, much more efficient and versatile scorer. Also, his strength alone should make him a better defender than Gallo, since neither of them are freak athletes.
I'm not even going to waste your time with my bench mob except to say: Sessions, better. Morrow, better, Jerebko, better. Lopez, better suited to guarding big 5's, Tolliver, comparable to Rony Turiaf. My bench mob kills that Knicks teams' bench mob.
My projected wins if Bogut plays 75 or more games: 62-66.
Projected wins if Bogut plays between 60-75 games: mid to late 50's.