So I'm doing my annual "projections" spreadsheet (where I figure out a depth chart w/minutes, then see what players would produce with a different # mins played.
So I'm wondering...how do I treat Derrick Williams?
I already took his college production and lopped off 10% immediately from everything including FG%.
But the guy shot 59% in college! Is 53% low enough?
I want to say no, but look at the facts...the guy was the most efficient jumpshooter, one of the best at scoring inside, and shot 50%+ from behind the 3pt line on 2 attempts a game!
So, my original thought was to compare his drops to those of similar players. Find the average in the change of numbers of Beasley, Blake Griffin, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Brandon Wright, and Rudy Gay. All recently drafted players with relatively similar games in college to Derrick Williams.
Then I thought maybe those projected stats that somebody else posted would seem reasonable. I think just taking off 10% would be way too little.
Regarding the 3pt%, another poster pointed out that will come WAY down. Aside from the way tougher competition (especially, more athletics SF/PFs than he's used to NCAA PFs) you have to account for the further distance as well. JJ Redick went from shooting 42.1% 3's while being absolutely molested on defense up to 30 feet beyond the arc to 38.8% on, what it appeared to me, were more open 3's somehow. I think Williams' drop is going to be precipitous.
But back to the subject, I think those projections somebody else posted earlier were fair.
Topic: 2011 CelticsBlog Draft Board (Read 758794 times)