With KG, it certainly has to do with recovering from the injury. But that has nothing to do with Ray and Paul, who both played much better this year than last. Furthermore, my point is that even with a subpar KG two years ago, we came a Perk injury away from winning it all.
Thus my point becomes that if we can almost win the Finals with a Big Three that was worse than this year Big Three, I don't see why we can't potentially make a run next year, even if the Big Three slightly decline.
They will be two years older next playoffs, and we lost game 7 of the finals in the same fashion we lost games against the Heat.
What will it take:
1) A healthy and improved Rondo.
2) An improved and integrated Jeff Green.
3) A good center (though not necessarily great).
4) Good health from the Big Three (a huge IF I recognize).
5) Retaining Delonte West and Big Baby, or getting players comparable to them.
6) And perhaps even some injury luck the other way (meaning other teams get hit, not us).
1) We had a healthy Rondo for the first two games, and we lost. A healthy Rondo was also part of game 7 last year, and part of the team who had countless 4th quarter collapses over the last 2 years.
2) Jeff Green is a role-player, we shouldn´t put our eggs in that basket if we´re looking to win a championship. He´s good, and could be better next year, but he´s not the deciding factor.
3) The whole league could use a good Center. We won´t get a player who can improve us significantly, if he´s not past his prime. We had Shaq and JO (who played pretty good in the playoffs) this year, and it wasn´t enough. Who could we realistically get, who is an improvement to those two?
4) An even bigger if than last year, or the year before.
5) See point 2.
6) Has nothing to do with luck. Injuries pile up when you get older. I`m not overly optimistic that the situation will get better with time.
I agree that there´s still a chance, but the term "window" is quite wishy-washy. The Memphis Grizzlies have a window, too. It´s still not realistic to expect them to win the championship.
This group had four (ok, 3) chances to win it all, they won it once. I´m thankful for that, but I can´t see another win without significant changes to our core.
1) We had a healthy Rondo the first two games we lost? So what? You're acting like it's the first time we've ever lost playoff games in the Big Three Era. In '08 we almost lost to Atlanta, lost a game by 20 to Cleveland, and lost another game by 19 to Detroit. So I don't see the relevance here in us losing two games with Rondo: two games don't make a series.
I also don't see why people want to focus on the 4th quarter collapses of the C's, rather than the fact that Rondo not only was hurt, but having him in was actually hurting the team. So not only was it like not having Rondo, it was like not having Rondo, plus an extra negative.
Yet we still almost won Games 4 and 5. I can't imagine that we wouldn't have won Game 4 with a healthy Rondo in Game 4 and we would've had a darn good shot of winning Game 5. So if we could potentially have come back from an 0-2 hole if Rondo was healthy, I don't see why it matters that he was healthy when they lost the first two games.
2) I agree that Jeff Green, BBD, and West are role players. But on a team that blew a lot of leads because of the bench and on a team that narrowly lost it's last two games despite not having Rondo, I don't see how you think this is insignificant. Literally a couple baskets could've been the difference between going home 3-2 and losing the series. If these guys can grow, it can make a difference.
3) Shaq and JO healthy likely would've been enough. That's neither here nor there, and I realize it's going to be a fairly tall order. However, I think someone solid, even along the lines of Jeff Foster, could be all this team needs, especially if JO comes back.
Will it be a tough sell over Miami and other teams? Yes. But I think the small advantage the C's might have in certain situations is that we can sell some guys on the idea that they can get bigger roles as the Big Three retire/fade. They won't get that on a lot of other teams like Miami.
5) Injuires: you're right. It's a bigger risk, but probably only by a little bit. Nevertheless, you're right; however, as I said, it's going to take luck.
6) Injuries absolutely have to do with luck. How else do you explain the Rondo injury happening? It wasn't because of age, it wasn't because of his reckless play, it was because he fell awkwardly in a collision with Wade. It could've just as easily happened the other way, and had it happened the other way, we'd likely be gearing up for Chicago.
So I think we absolutely could get lucky next year. Even if we don't improve or we take a step back, we could win a title if LeBron and Rose blow ACLs. And you know what? I'd feel fine about it after the way our best 3 seasons ended. But we'd certainly be quite lucky.
Finally, to jaybahs, while Rondo's shooting has been disheartening, look at Jason Kidd. His biggest flaw when he came into the league was that he couldn't shoot to save his life. 16 years later he's #3 in three point makes in league history. It's possible Rondo can improve.