I Don't Think the Window is Quite Closed

[Jon]

First and foremost, this is not a post to try to convince you that we're the favorites next year.  Nor is it a post to try to advocate some whacked out trade that will never happen.  But what I am here to tell you is that I do think the Celtics can contend again next year.  Here's why.

First and foremost, if the window is closed because the Big Three have declined, why did the Big Three all play better this year than they did last year when we came less than a quarter away from winning the NBA Finals?  Ray shot a career best from the field and three point line and was still throwing down dunks on the Heat.  Paul shot a career best from the field and looked much lighter on his feet this year than he did last year.  And KG, stats or no stats, was much more athletically gifted this year than he was last year when he could barely complete an alley-oop.  

If the Big Three are actually better than they were last year, then why did we lose?  Well, there are likely several reasons including better competition (the Heat) and lack of inside play, but the biggest reason has to be Rajon Rondo getting hurt.  

I know some people on this board and in the media are obsessed with chronicling our fourth quarter collapses.  But can anyone seriously look at Game 4 and think that in a game that went to overtime, having a healthy version of arguably the greatest playmaker in the NBA wouldn't have helped us close it out in regulation?  Might the C's tired legs have let their 10 point lead go to 5?  Absolutely, but that stuff happened last year and the year before too.  However, just because they might've played somewhat poorly in the 4th quarter with a Rondo, doesn't mean that they completely would've blown it.  

Similarly, a healthy Rondo (who looked even worse in Game 5) could've helped the C's hold their lead in Game 5.  And if that's the case, the C's would be heading back to Boston up 3-2 and no one would be talking about the C's being "too old" or the "window closed."

I agree with Danny Ainge's assessment that the Big Three are likely past the 2008 point where they could carry a team by themselves.  Often times in 2008, their best lineup was House and Posey with the Big Three.  They clearly need Rondo now to work.  However, that was the case last year when the C's went to the NBA Finals and almost won.  

So my point is simply this: if Rondo can get back to 100% and step up his game and the Big Three can maintain their level of play, this team can still be a contender next year.  

Would I bet on them winning?  Nope.  However, I think they can be at least as good as they were this year, and with potential improvements in Rondo and Green, potentially a little better.  

[letsgoblue86]

I disagree.  Three of our most important players will be 34, 35, and 36 respectively.  And the Heat proved to us that age doesn't trump athleticism and youth.  Danny needs to pull something out of his butt to keep the window open.

[wdleehi]

I don't believe the window has to be closed.



But at the same time, it will be very hard to open that window wide enough while saving the cap flexibility of 2012.

[RyNye]

(TP)

I agree completely. This is what I have been saying to doubters for a while. Both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce had elite seasons (According to ESPN player efficiency statistics, Paul Pierce was the 4th best small forward in the league during the regular season, and Ray Allen the 13th best shooting guard - though he jumped up to 6th in the playoffs); Kevin Garnett similarly had an outstanding season (8th best power forward). This was the best for the three since the championship season (though both PP and Ray Allen had top 10 efficient player seasons in 09 when KG was injured).

Age isn't the issue (though it doesn't help). The Celtics are not even the oldest team in the league. The Lakers and Mavericks are older. Hell, the Heat actually have the oldest average team in the league, and the only over 30. Yes, the CORE of the Heat are younger than our core. But remember, Lebron, Bosh, and Wade AREN'T rookies. This is their 9th year in the league, and one of them has a championship under his belt already. And Bosh is the only one with relatively limited post-season mileage. They are more experienced, and more veteran, than people give them credit for.

[Jon]

I disagree.  Three of our most important players will be 34, 35, and 36 respectively.  And the Heat proved to us that age doesn't trump athleticism and youth.  Danny needs to pull something out of his butt to keep the window open.

But last year you could've said the same thing about our best players being 33, 34, and 35, and they magically all had better years than the year before.  While I'm not suggesting they're going to get better next year, I see no reason why they'll be any worse than they were when they went to the Finals in '10.  

Furthermore, did the Heat really prove anything?  They beat us pretty badly the first two games, but it was hardly the worst playoff losses of the Big Three era (we've lost several by 20).  But then we came home and won a game with a largely healthy Rondo.  But then Games 4 and 5 we narrowly lost with Rondo running around with one arm.  

If we'd lost those games as badly as we lost the first two, I'd be on board with everyone that the Heat's athleticism and talent beat us out.  However, how anyone thinks we would've lost Game 4 if Rondo had been healthy is beyond me.  

For goodness sake, he missed a layup under the basket that would've won the game if he'd been healthy and dunked it!  And that doesn't even count the many, many other things that hurt us and helped the Heat because they sagged off of him even more than usual or that he wasn't patrolling the passing lanes like he usually does.  

Same with Game 5.  We're up much of the game.  Not to say the Heat don't come back at all.  However, if Rondo's healthy, we're up by more points and the Heat have a harder time of coming back.  

So in my book, at the very least, a healthy Rondo means this series goes to 6 or 7 games, and we possibly win it.  And if we had done that, this talk of the "window" being closed likely wouldn't be going on.  

[GreenFaith1819]

I agree, Jon (TP).

Rondo was the key injury in that NY series, not to mention JO's wrist.

But yeah - Rondo being healthy would've surely helped.

With that being said - I agree that the window is not quite closed. All we need is a few tweaks here and there.

I'd also like to see Rondo more aggressive offensively next season....take even more of a load off of the Big Three. At times this year, he just seemed tentative with his offense, when we all know he can score.

If we bring back this group (starters with JO), Nenad, Jeff Green, Glen, Delonte, Wafer, Sasha, Troy, etc - I know that they all would benefit from a full training camp, too.

[EJPLAYA]

While the injuries definitely hurt us this year, I think the reason this is an accurate assessment is that if you think back to the season and our struggles, it was when the bench would come in. Our starters were competitive and at a championship level. It was our bench’s inability to score that made games that should have been 15-20 point wins close games or losses. Our starters if healthy can win next year. JO is plenty of center if he can play 30 minutes a game. He was every bit as effective as Perk. We need to add a defensive 2 or 3 to slow down Wade or Lebron, and another scorer or two. With that we are contenders again next year. Unless we get the steal of the century in a trade we are best to try and tweak the bench and try to get healthy.

[Marcus13]

For this roster, it is closed.  If we can pick up an All-Star Level player to play next to these guys...it may re-open for another season

[LB3533]

I thinking trusting a bench with injury histories and trusting a makeshift bench created in the 2nd to last month of the regular season were huge gambles.

The injuries came back to bite us in the playoffs.

The inconsistent play and poor chemistry had a negative effect on us.

We need to get healthy players and need to give them time to gel.

A full training camp, preaseason, I don't see why the very same team we have right now can't get it done against the Heat.

[Casperian]

But last year you could've said the same thing about our best players being 33, 34, and 35, and they magically all had better years than the year before.  

Has nothing to do with magic, KG was injured the year before. Now, if our guys are the only athletes in the world who are not affected by age, that would be indeed magic.

They were already over-achieving last year, now they´re a year older, and another year next playoffs, and the competition has become a lot harder at the top of the east.

Sentimentality is not a good advisor, in my opinion.

[Jon]

For this roster, it is closed.  If we can pick up an All-Star Level player to play next to these guys...it may re-open for another season

But why?  This is way too simplified.  Is it because the Heat were more athletic than us and were leaping over us for rebounds?  If so, that happened in 2008 with the Hawks.  That's nothing new.  

Is it because we blew 4th quarter leads?  That happened too last year when we almost won it all.  

The big difference?  Our best player couldn't penetrate, couldn't pass the ball effectively, and couldn't patrol the lanes like he did in the last two games that we very narrowly lost.  In two games that were literally decided by one or two plays (and yes, Game 5 was too, Miami didn't pull away until the last minute or two when Boston started getting desperate), I don't see how Rondo doesn't push them over the top.    

By no means am I suggesting we're the favorite next year.  It's going to take some luck for us to pick up a good piece or two and stay healthy.  It may even take some injury luck the other way (after this season and the past two, I'd have zero problem seeing Rose and LeBron blow ACLs), but if this team is healthy (and I realize that it's a pretty big if), I think they can still give it one last run.  

[Jon]

But last year you could've said the same thing about our best players being 33, 34, and 35, and they magically all had better years than the year before.  

Has nothing to do with magic, KG was injured the year before. Now, if our guys are the only athletes in the world who are not affected by age, that would be indeed magic.

They were already over-achieving last year, now they´re a year older, and another year next playoffs, and the competition has become a lot harder at the top of the east.

Sentimentality is not a good advisor, in my opinion.

With KG, it certainly has to do with recovering from the injury.  But that has nothing to do with Ray and Paul, who both played much better this year than last.  Furthermore, my point is that even with a subpar KG two years ago, we came a Perk injury away from winning it all. 

Thus my point becomes that if we can almost win the Finals with a Big Three that was worse than this year Big Three, I don't see why we can't potentially make a run next year, even if the Big Three slightly decline. 

What will it take:

1) A healthy and improved Rondo.

2) An improved and integrated Jeff Green.

3) A good center (though not necessarily great).

4) Good health from the Big Three (a huge IF I recognize).

5) Retaining Delonte West and Big Baby, or getting players comparable to them. 

6) And perhaps even some injury luck the other way (meaning other teams get hit, not us). 

Again, if I had to rate our chances, I'd say they're likely quite low.  But in a league where only a handful of teams have a legit shot at a title, I think we're still one of those teams, even if the window is only cracked...

[j804]

I can dig it Jon, solid points.

Next year we can still contend and will still be one of the handful of top teams sorry Debbie Downers we aren't going anywhere just yet.

[Casperian]

With KG, it certainly has to do with recovering from the injury.  But that has nothing to do with Ray and Paul, who both played much better this year than last.  Furthermore, my point is that even with a subpar KG two years ago, we came a Perk injury away from winning it all. 

Thus my point becomes that if we can almost win the Finals with a Big Three that was worse than this year Big Three, I don't see why we can't potentially make a run next year, even if the Big Three slightly decline.

They will be two years older next playoffs, and we lost game 7 of the finals in the same fashion we lost games against the Heat.

What will it take:

1) A healthy and improved Rondo.

2) An improved and integrated Jeff Green.

3) A good center (though not necessarily great).

4) Good health from the Big Three (a huge IF I recognize).

5) Retaining Delonte West and Big Baby, or getting players comparable to them. 

6) And perhaps even some injury luck the other way (meaning other teams get hit, not us). 

1) We had a healthy Rondo for the first two games, and we lost. A healthy Rondo was also part of game 7 last year, and part of the team who had countless 4th quarter collapses over the last 2 years.

2) Jeff Green is a role-player, we shouldn´t put our eggs in that basket if we´re looking to win a championship. He´s good, and could be better next year, but he´s not the deciding factor.

3) The whole league could use a good Center. We won´t get a player who can improve us significantly, if he´s not past his prime. We had Shaq and JO (who played pretty good in the playoffs) this year, and it wasn´t enough. Who could we realistically get, who is an improvement to those two?

4) An even bigger if than last year, or the year before.

5) See point 2.

6) Has nothing to do with luck. Injuries pile up when you get older. I`m not overly optimistic that the situation will get better with time.

I agree that there´s still a chance, but the term "window" is quite wishy-washy. The Memphis Grizzlies have a window, too. It´s still not realistic to expect them to win the championship.

This group had four (ok, 3) chances to win it all, they won it once. I´m thankful for that, but I can´t see another win without significant changes to our core.

[jaybahs]

This window will be open as long as Rondo continues to work on his game and improve ... I'm sick of hearing "If this kid gets his jumpshot down he will be unstoppable" ... because year after year now THIS KID is becoming more and more timid about shooting THE J and his free throw percentage continues to linger around 50% ...