My final thread on the trade

[wdleehi]

For the 5-7 minutes needed (at most) to guard Lebron, teams can find someone.  Especially if there is a strong defense behind them (which would be there with the combo of Perk and JO playing C)

[dlpin]

pretty much on target here ... last night perk wouldve played in the 4th qtr the majority of the time instead of going small playing into miami's hands were a team that closes games with stops not scores perk wouldve helped us get stops

We played small because we wanted to, not because we had to. How many times does this need to be said? A healthy JO was on the bench and available. It is not Ainge's fault if Doc CHOSE not to play the big man we had available yesterday.


And no, Doc would not leave Perkins in to "go big." Perkins doesn't make them pay on defense because he is terrible on offense, and there is no way he would be chasing Chris Bosh or Lebron around.

[KCattheStripe]

And to Roy, I'm not suggesting that a center's only role is to guard the opposing big man, I just see Perk's defensive abilities as tremendously diminished at this point-- especially how he used to switch on picks and man up on drivers-- and think that you're getting similar production from JO and actually have a back up for Paul which you wouldn't have had.

I wasn't directing anything at you specifically, KC.  It's an argument I've seen repeated dozens of times.  "Howard and Bynum are out of the playoffs, so Perk wouldn't have been valuable".  I think that's nonsense. 

Perk played a big role in defending the paint against penetration.  You rightfully point out JO as somebody who does the same thing.  However, if we'd still had Perk, we could have 48 minutes of strong center play, rather than around 30.  Controlling the paint from Lebron and Wade is one of the keys to this series, and we're losing that battle so far.

Regarding the trade itself, I'm pretty worn out from the debate, and don't want to get into it.  I understand that people worry about Perk's current physical condition, and they're skeptical that whatever replacement SF we signed could have matched Green's contributions.  There's no real way to prove anything. 

However, from my point of view, this playoff series didn't do anything to vindicate Danny Ainge.  Green hasn't made a huge impact, and we've struggled at times defending the paint and rebounding.  Between the play on the court, the chemistry issues (at least during the regular season), and our mini-collapse in the standings (where we blew something like a 7 game lead to the Heat, surrendering home court), it's not a trade that I'd personally choose to write home about.

I think without Howard and Bynum Perk's value did diminish, but in the same way that without LeBron and Kobe Pierce's value would diminish because he didn't have to guard them-- if that makes sense, I'm trying to say that they're both incredibly valuable but without the players they're most valuable against it drops a little, I'm not sure if I'm saying this clearly--. While it's not a trade I'd write home about, I don't think it has directly affected this series. We had trouble keeping Lebron and Wade out of the paint when they were the only members of their teams that could get in the paint when we had Perkins, and now we're having trouble keeping them out of the paint when they're playing together but we're still in games. To me that says less about the bigs but rather defensive depth on the wings.

[KCattheStripe]

pretty much on target here ... last night perk wouldve played in the 4th qtr the majority of the time instead of going small playing into miami's hands were a team that closes games with stops not scores perk wouldve helped us get stops

We played small because we wanted to, not because we had to. How many times does this need to be said? A healthy JO was on the bench and available. It is not Ainge's fault if Doc CHOSE not to play the big man we had available yesterday.


And no, Doc would not leave Perkins in to "go big." Perkins doesn't make them pay on defense because he is terrible on offense, and there is no way he would be chasing Chris Bosh or Lebron around.

Perk also was benched at the ends of games last year and in 08.

[dlpin]

I wasn't directing anything at you specifically, KC.  It's an argument I've seen repeated dozens of times.  "Howard and Bynum are out of the playoffs, so Perk wouldn't have been valuable".  I think that's nonsense. 

Perk played a big role in defending the paint against penetration.  You rightfully point out JO as somebody who does the same thing.  However, if we'd still had Perk, we could have 48 minutes of strong center play, rather than around 30.  Controlling the paint from Lebron and Wade is one of the keys to this series, and we're losing that battle so far.

Regarding the trade itself, I'm pretty worn out from the debate, and don't want to get into it.  I understand that people worry about Perk's current physical condition, and they're skeptical that whatever replacement SF we signed could have matched Green's contributions.  There's no real way to prove anything. 

However, from my point of view, this playoff series didn't do anything to vindicate Danny Ainge.  Green hasn't made a huge impact, and we've struggled at times defending the paint and rebounding.  Between the play on the court, the chemistry issues (at least during the regular season), and our mini-collapse in the standings (where we blew something like a 7 game lead to the Heat, surrendering home court), it's not a trade that I'd personally choose to write home about.

While this sounds great in theory, in practice Perkins would have to not only provide help defense against penetration, but also guard someone 1 on 1. The heat only played an actual center for 30 minutes last night. JO got 28 of those minutes. That would mean that for Perkins to be on the court, he would either have to:
1- take away JO's minutes, which is at best a wash.
2- Either sit KG or force KG to guard Lebron.

There is no alternative. For Perkins to be on the court at a night like yesterday, either JO would play less than what he has played, or KG would have to defend Lebron.

[Roy H.]

While this sounds great in theory, in practice Perkins would have to not only provide help defense against penetration, but also guard someone 1 on 1. The heat only played an actual center for 30 minutes last night. JO got 28 of those minutes. That would mean that for Perkins to be on the court, he would either have to:
1- take away JO's minutes, which is at best a wash.
2- Either sit KG or force KG to guard Lebron.

There is no alternative. For Perkins to be on the court at a night like yesterday, either JO would play less than what he has played, or KG would have to defend Lebron.

Well, no, those aren't the only alternatives at all.  Doc obviously would have had to use different lineups than he used, and this presumes that Danny would have acquired another SF, but there are plenty of options other than playing JO less or using KG at SF.  For instance, despite Miami not using a traditional center, we could have used one; it's not like there's a rule against that.

[dlpin]

Well, no, those aren't the only alternatives at all.  Doc obviously would have had to use different lineups than he used, and this presumes that Danny would have acquired another SF, but there are plenty of options other than playing JO less or using KG at SF.  For instance, despite Miami not using a traditional center, we could have used one; it's not like there's a rule against that.

I wasn't referring to playing KG at small forward. I was referring to Lebron playing 20 minutes at power forward. Whenever Miami didn't use a traditional center, they were playing Bosh at the 5 and Lebron at the 4. The celtics responded by playing JO whenever the heat had a traditional center in, and KG at the 5 with Pierce/Green at the 4.

So yes, yesterday the only options would have been to play JO less or have KG trying to guard one of Lebron, Wade, Chalmers or Jones.

Perkins would not have done much, if anything this series simply because he is not good enough offensively to punish Miami for going small.

[Vermont Green]

There is nothing about this series that will help resolve the Trade debate.  I don't think Perk would have even played much based on how JO has played but who knows.

Game 4 was the key game and we lost because KG went 1 for 10.  Not sure how the trade caused that. Green played fine. I think the versitility that we got from Green was a good thing.  Better than the added size Perk would have given us?  I think so but can't prove it but neither is enough to overcome 1 for 10 by KG.

Miami is good, so good that we can't falter in any regard or we are going to lose.  We faltered and we lost.  I don't see the trade as a factor at all.  If KG goes 2 for 10, maybe we win but he didn't.

[LB3533]

Lebron hit some difficult shots last night....some big, big shots.


But overall, he was not efficient. He had 35 points on 28 shots.

Considering that Lebron hit all his FTs (which he never does)....that was a very inefficient game from Lebron.

Our defense on Lebron was tremendous last night. Kudos to PP and JG.

KG 1-10
CB 8-17

There's your ball game.

[MBunge]

For the 5-7 minutes needed (at most) to guard Lebron, teams can find someone. 

Ha! There are plenty of teams who don't have a single guy that can adequately check LeBron.  For example, who would do that job on this year's Spurs team?  Even in the one game where the Spurs blew out the Heat, LeBron went 11 for 19 from the field.

Mike

[LB3533]

Lebron shot a career high 51% from the field this past regular season.

He's shooting 45% in this series.

That's 6% less than his RS average.

In 3 of the 4 games so far, Lebron has shot 43% or less.

Wade is nearly the same way...3 of the 4 games he's shot less than 45% after shooting a career best 50% in the RS.

Our defense has been great in this series....it's our turnovers which are fueling their monster wing players.

We've given them points when they didn't deserve them.

They both would have less points and shooting even worse, had we taken care of the ball.

[JohnBagleyValueMeal]

I'm not interested in asking "would Perk have made the difference?" We just can't know. To me, the question that can (and should) be asked is: did the Celtics receive enough value to justify the immense turnover *this season*?

I'm of the opinion that no matter who the Celtics add in 2011 or 2012, it's not going to be enough to overcome Miami, and maybe even Chicago or whoever else. Even some sort of best case scenario where the Celtics have Howard, Rondo, and some other decent guy (a John Salmons-type)-- that's not enough. So for me, it was this year or 5-7 years from now.

Turning over a huge portion of the roster, caused a ton of on-the-floor confusion in the process, and required an extended "settling" period that would, even with the best case scenario, probably effect our playoff seeding. I'm not even talking vague things like "chemistry" or "ubuntu" (which are of course important, but not quantifiable.) So to my mind you have to ask whether all that turnover and confusion was made worth it by the contributions that have come in.

Obviously Krstic, Arroyo, Pavlovic, and Murphy have given us nothing. That's unfortunate but probably undebatable at this point. And I don't think you can blame Doc on that--none of them have earned minutes. So it's down to Jeff Green, who is by all accounts a class act and a nice player. Jeff Green averaged 18.6 MP, 7.1 pts, 2.6 rebounds, .12 assists, .63 steals, .5 blocks, 1.3 turnovers and 2.4 fouls. He shot 42% from the field, 40% from 3, and 69% from the line. Discussion around him has pretty much exhausted itself, so I decided that I'd look at the numbers in the playoffs for guys that have played a similar amount of MPG as Green with similar outputs. I've attached the excel sheet for those that are interested.

The closest comparisons:

• Marvin Williams averaged 19.2 MP, 5.5 pts, 2.5 rebounds, .6 assists, .8 steals, .6 blocks, 1.1 to's, and 1.7 fouls. He shot 41%, 27% from 3, and 77% from the line.
  
• Kyle Korver averaged 19.78 mp, 8.8 pts, 1.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .67 steals, .22 blocks, 1.3 to's, and 1.89 fouls. He shot 41%, 49% from 3 and is perfect from the line (6 for 6).
  
• Shannon Brown: 16.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg, 1.9 rebs, .7 assts, .6 steals, .2 blocks, .9 tos, and 1 foul. He shot 46%, 28% from 3 and 69% from the line
  
• Darrel Arthur: 15.8mpg, 7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, .7 assts, .4 steals, 1.1 blks, .9 tos, and 2.3 fouls. He's shot 46% from the field and is 3 from 4 from the line (hasn't attempted a 3 pointer).
  

There's more guys in the excel file. You can draw your own conclusions, but to me, I wouldn't have changed things up so drastically just to get Shannon Brown or Kyle Korver level production. I would've taken what I could from Anthony Parker (who wouldve given 60% of those numbers) and kept the 50% of the playbook we had to scratch.

[dlpin]

I'm not interested in asking "would Perk have made the difference?" We just can't know. To me, the question that can (and should) be asked is: did the Celtics receive enough value to justify the immense turnover *this season*?

I'm of the opinion that no matter who the Celtics add in 2011 or 2012, it's not going to be enough to overcome Miami, and maybe even Chicago or whoever else. Even some sort of best case scenario where the Celtics have Howard, Rondo, and some other decent guy (a John Salmons-type)-- that's not enough. So for me, it was this year or 5-7 years from now.

Turning over a huge portion of the roster, caused a ton of on-the-floor confusion in the process, and required an extended "settling" period that would, even with the best case scenario, probably effect our playoff seeding. I'm not even talking vague things like "chemistry" or "ubuntu" (which are of course important, but not quantifiable.) So to my mind you have to ask whether all that turnover and confusion was made worth it by the contributions that have come in.

Obviously Krstic, Arroyo, Pavlovic, and Murphy have given us nothing. That's unfortunate but probably undebatable at this point. And I don't think you can blame Doc on that--none of them have earned minutes. So it's down to Jeff Green, who is by all accounts a class act and a nice player. Jeff Green averaged 18.6 MP, 7.1 pts, 2.6 rebounds, .12 assists, .63 steals, .5 blocks, 1.3 turnovers and 2.4 fouls. He shot 42% from the field, 40% from 3, and 69% from the line. Discussion around him has pretty much exhausted itself, so I decided that I'd look at the numbers in the playoffs for guys that have played a similar amount of MPG as Green with similar outputs. I've attached the excel sheet for those that are interested.

The closest comparisons:

• Marvin Williams averaged 19.2 MP, 5.5 pts, 2.5 rebounds, .6 assists, .8 steals, .6 blocks, 1.1 to's, and 1.7 fouls. He shot 41%, 27% from 3, and 77% from the line.
  
• Kyle Korver averaged 19.78 mp, 8.8 pts, 1.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, .67 steals, .22 blocks, 1.3 to's, and 1.89 fouls. He shot 41%, 49% from 3 and is perfect from the line (6 for 6).
  
• Shannon Brown: 16.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg, 1.9 rebs, .7 assts, .6 steals, .2 blocks, .9 tos, and 1 foul. He shot 46%, 28% from 3 and 69% from the line
  
• Darrel Arthur: 15.8mpg, 7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, .7 assts, .4 steals, 1.1 blks, .9 tos, and 2.3 fouls. He's shot 46% from the field and is 3 from 4 from the line (hasn't attempted a 3 pointer).
  

There's more guys in the excel file. You can draw your own conclusions, but to me, I wouldn't have changed things up so drastically just to get Shannon Brown or Kyle Korver level production. I would've taken what I could from Anthony Parker (who wouldve given 60% of those numbers) and kept the 50% of the playbook we had to scratch.

The first problem here is that you assume that turning over a large part of the roster was a choice. It wasn't. Marquis, Nate and Erden have all been injured for significant amounts of time. Shaq has also been hurt. The only guy we lost willingly is Harangody. So other than Green-Perkins, every other part of the roster turnover has been forced on the celtics.

The second problem here is that your comparison is deeply flawed. The sample you are using (8 playoff games) is small and Green is playing against much, much better competition with a much, much better player playing in front of him.

None of the players you've listed are behind a player of Pierce's caliber, and none of them are going up against players like Melo or Lebron.

More importantly, none of them have EVER done what Green did for OKC consistently and out of position.

[LB3533]

We have 5 guys left from last year's Final's team.

That wasn't Doc's choice, that wasn't the players' choice.

That may not even have been Danny Ainge's choice.

This is what happens when business and injuries come into play.

Nothing can stay status quo forever.

In spite of all these changes, this team has over achieved this year.

[mctyson]

I wasn't directing anything at you specifically, KC. 

No but you were directing your comments at my posts, which I stand by whole-heartedly.  Danny made the trade because he was not into signing Perkins long term, and he got quality in return.  The main reason everyone beefed was because of the Howard, Gasol, Bynum matchups.  Those are no longer a problem.  Good job Danny.