Hollinger says "Heat will breeze past us easily in the second round"

[fairweatherfan]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions. 

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along. 

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

My favorite example of this is the post in another thread bashing Hollinger's predictions with GIFs where he was wrong.

08 Finals
10 First Round
10 Second Round
10 ECF

They leave out the 10 Finals, the 08 First Round, 08 Second Round, etc...

Yeah I know which post you're referring to - the irony of the whole thing is that I'm not really a fan of Hollinger or his pet stats, but a lot of the opinions here are so off-the-wall that I wind up defending him all the time.  He's not some guru but he's no clueless idiot either.

[jdpapa3]

hollinger picked the C's to win it in '08

He might've picked us before the playoffs, but he had Lakers in 6 before the series.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I think he means ... that the warm air of South Beach will flow easily over the skin of Boston's players as they glide past the lebrons.

[birdwatcher]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions. 

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along. 

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

My favorite example of this is the post in another thread bashing Hollinger's predictions with GIFs where he was wrong.

08 Finals
10 First Round
10 Second Round
10 ECF

They leave out the 10 Finals, the 08 First Round, 08 Second Round, etc...

Yeah I know which post you're referring to - the irony of the whole thing is that I'm not really a fan of Hollinger or his pet stats, but a lot of the opinions here are so off-the-wall that I wind up defending him all the time.  He's not some guru but he's no clueless idiot either.

My "KG PUG" could totally take your "Rondog". Just sayin'.

[diehard celtic]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2011/insider/news/story?id=6431130&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fplayoffs%2f2011%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d6431130

Don't have insider but I can tell this article is full of nonsense written by a Heat/Bull lover.

[jaser]

Somebody posted the link above in lakersground. Gotta tip my hat to some of the Laker fans in there....

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=132626

[Spicoli]

I'm going to really have to go into the lab and break some things down before I could make a realistic prediction for this series.  I will say that, as others have alluded to, the Heat are the team that scares me the most in the East and are right there with the Lakers as far as teams that worry me.  But, a few of my initial thoughts:

1) The Strengths/weaknesses match-up between the Heat and Celtics seem to favor the Cs.  Said another way, I think the Celtics are more built to blunt the Heat's strengths than vice-versa and that the Celtics are more built to take advantage of the Heat's weaknesses than vice versa.

For example, the Heat (obviously) have huge talent in the iso and are outstanding when they can get out and run.  The Celtics' defense, on the other hand, is built to prevent iso scoring and to slow down fast breaks.

Then, the Heat's defensive strength is in their athletic 2 - 4 positions that hide their point guard and allow their centers to not have to do so much to anchor the defense.  The Celtics, on the other hand, have a point guard that gets to the rim and bigs that can take advantage of donuts (think what Rondo and KG did to the Cavs last year, which is compounded even further if Shaq can come back and contribute a few minutes).

Those are just examples, but I think in general the Celtics are more built to defeat the Heat than vice versa.  Of course, none of that means for sure that the Celtics actually DO beat the Heat...but I think they should be favored.  Right now "Celtics in 6" seems like a reasonable default prediction.

I totally agree. Why are people afraid of a team that the C's are built to defeat? Teams that swing the ball and make them pay for overloading the strong side are the teams that give them the most trouble.This is not a description of the Heat. The Heat are all Iso ball. Wade, James, and Bosh each take turns. Like i said, if they win, so what. But i'm not betting on it.

[JT11]

Somebody posted the link above in lakersground. Gotta tip my hat to some of the Laker fans in there....

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=132626

Apparently, the nationwide hate of the Heat is enough to cause an agreement between Celtics and Lakers fans. 

[BASS_THUMPER]

Somebody posted the link above in lakersground. Gotta tip my hat to some of the Laker fans in there....

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=132626

Apparently, the nationwide hate of the Heat is enough to cause an agreement between Celtics and Lakers fans. 

naw im gettin that vibe here too


they jus wanna use us to knock miami..than after that they dont care what happens with us...

[mgent]

"...and then I woke up."

[Tai]

I'm going to really have to go into the lab and break some things down before I could make a realistic prediction for this series.  I will say that, as others have alluded to, the Heat are the team that scares me the most in the East and are right there with the Lakers as far as teams that worry me.  But, a few of my initial thoughts:

1) The Strengths/weaknesses match-up between the Heat and Celtics seem to favor the Cs.  Said another way, I think the Celtics are more built to blunt the Heat's strengths than vice-versa and that the Celtics are more built to take advantage of the Heat's weaknesses than vice versa.

For example, the Heat (obviously) have huge talent in the iso and are outstanding when they can get out and run.  The Celtics' defense, on the other hand, is built to prevent iso scoring and to slow down fast breaks.

Then, the Heat's defensive strength is in their athletic 2 - 4 positions that hide their point guard and allow their centers to not have to do so much to anchor the defense.  The Celtics, on the other hand, have a point guard that gets to the rim and bigs that can take advantage of donuts (think what Rondo and KG did to the Cavs last year, which is compounded even further if Shaq can come back and contribute a few minutes).

Those are just examples, but I think in general the Celtics are more built to defeat the Heat than vice versa.  Of course, none of that means for sure that the Celtics actually DO beat the Heat...but I think they should be favored.  Right now "Celtics in 6" seems like a reasonable default prediction.

I totally agree. Why are people afraid of a team that the C's are built to defeat? Teams that swing the ball and make them pay for overloading the strong side are the teams that give them the most trouble.This is not a description of the Heat. The Heat are all Iso ball. Wade, James, and Bosh each take turns. Like i said, if they win, so what. But i'm not betting on it.

Yea, I gotta jump on this train, too. Are Bibby and Chalmers all the Heat have to throw at Rondo? Do Heat fans really trust those two guys to contain Rondo, or even West at times? He's had a triple double in one game, 14 assists in another game, and 17 in the 3rd game that the C's won against the Heat. KG had double-doubles in 2 of those 3 wins, and 19 points and 7 rebounds in the 3rd win.  Just off their offensive numbers, it's suggested that those two can come up big this series. It doesn't include the defense they'll play to shut down their men. Even BBD wasn't too shabby in the 3 wins against the Heat.

I dunno if I suggested in this topic before or not, and I'm a wee bit tired to look, but I wonder if Hollinger hates the Celtics or what not.

[FallGuy]

I'm going to really have to go into the lab and break some things down before I could make a realistic prediction for this series.  I will say that, as others have alluded to, the Heat are the team that scares me the most in the East and are right there with the Lakers as far as teams that worry me.  But, a few of my initial thoughts:

1) The Strengths/weaknesses match-up between the Heat and Celtics seem to favor the Cs.  Said another way, I think the Celtics are more built to blunt the Heat's strengths than vice-versa and that the Celtics are more built to take advantage of the Heat's weaknesses than vice versa.

For example, the Heat (obviously) have huge talent in the iso and are outstanding when they can get out and run.  The Celtics' defense, on the other hand, is built to prevent iso scoring and to slow down fast breaks.

Then, the Heat's defensive strength is in their athletic 2 - 4 positions that hide their point guard and allow their centers to not have to do so much to anchor the defense.  The Celtics, on the other hand, have a point guard that gets to the rim and bigs that can take advantage of donuts (think what Rondo and KG did to the Cavs last year, which is compounded even further if Shaq can come back and contribute a few minutes).

Those are just examples, but I think in general the Celtics are more built to defeat the Heat than vice versa.  Of course, none of that means for sure that the Celtics actually DO beat the Heat...but I think they should be favored.  Right now "Celtics in 6" seems like a reasonable default prediction.

I totally agree. Why are people afraid of a team that the C's are built to defeat? Teams that swing the ball and make them pay for overloading the strong side are the teams that give them the most trouble.This is not a description of the Heat. The Heat are all Iso ball. Wade, James, and Bosh each take turns. Like i said, if they win, so what. But i'm not betting on it.

Yea, I gotta jump on this train, too. Are Bibby and Chalmers all the Heat have to throw at Rondo? Do Heat fans really trust those two guys to contain Rondo, or even West at times? He's had a triple double in one game, 14 assists in another game, and 17 in the 3rd game that the C's won against the Heat. KG had double-doubles in 2 of those 3 wins, and 19 points and 7 rebounds in the 3rd win.  Just off their offensive numbers, it's suggested that those two can come up big this series. It doesn't include the defense they'll play to shut down their men. Even BBD wasn't too shabby in the 3 wins against the Heat.

I dunno if I suggested in this topic before or not, and I'm a wee bit tired to look, but I wonder if Hollinger hates the Celtics or what not.

I find this kind of funny. Around here, Hollinger is alternately excoriated for being a slave to his numbers and being someone who hates the Celtics. Can't have it both ways, guys. Choose your stereotype and stick with it.

Miami's team perimeter D is what they'll entrust to contain Rondo in the halfcourt. It's not just Rondo iso-ing up on Bibby or Chalmers and cooking them up anymore than it is Pierce defending Lebron all by himself.

[j804]

It wont be easy and will probably end up going 7

it seems they would feel they got a lot to prove with all the scrutiny they get, than there's the past battles eliminating Wade/Heat and LeBron/Cavs they will be jacked up

[jdz101]

Lebron travelled.

So did Delonte.....to Lebrons mum's house.

Celtics in 6 or 7.

[GreenEnvy]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions. 

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along. 

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

My favorite example of this is the post in another thread bashing Hollinger's predictions with GIFs where he was wrong.

08 Finals
10 First Round
10 Second Round
10 ECF

They leave out the 10 Finals, the 08 First Round, 08 Second Round, etc...

Yeah I know which post you're referring to - the irony of the whole thing is that I'm not really a fan of Hollinger or his pet stats, but a lot of the opinions here are so off-the-wall that I wind up defending him all the time.  He's not some guru but he's no clueless idiot either.

But if I had to classify him as one, at least when it comes to basketball, I'd pick the latter.