Hollinger says "Heat will breeze past us easily in the second round"

[Quinn]

Hollinger's entire basis for his argument is invalid. He's essentially saying that, even though the Celtics won the first two games, they didn't have solid execution and looked a bit sloppy. The last two games were better though, and they swept the series. That's better than the Heat, who LOST a game to Philadelphia, whom I feel with the way Melo was lighting it up in the series New York could have beaten in a series. They actually lost a game to a team, and we're being written off for not having four blowout, picture-perfect games.

[fairweatherfan]

Hollinger's entire basis for his argument is invalid. He's essentially saying that, even though the Celtics won the first two games, they didn't have solid execution and looked a bit sloppy. The last two games were better though, and they swept the series. That's better than the Heat, who LOST a game to Philadelphia, whom I feel with the way Melo was lighting it up in the series New York could have beaten in a series. They actually lost a game to a team, and we're being written off for not having four blowout, picture-perfect games.

That isn't the entire basis for his argument.  Look at his regular season power rankings instead. 

Not saying it's a good basis, but that's where he's coming from.

[P2]

What a d(ouche)-bag.

But how about this:

5. It's Postseason Day 10: Who should be favored to win the East?

John Krolik, Cavs: The Blog: I would go with the Heat. The Celtics look wafer-thin without Shaq healthy

Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: Miami is still my favorite. The Heat have the most reliable scoring options, and Spoelstra will sort out the rotations to eliminate their weakest lineups. If Udonis Haslem comes back and gives them anything at all, I think the flaws of the Celtics (depth and age) and Bulls (overreliance on Rose) are more [dang]ing.

[18isGREATERthan72]

Hollinger just says this stuff to get a reaction. Even he cannot believe that if MIA beats Boston they will breeze by us. Even MIA wouldn't say that...even Lebron wouldn't say that.

Whatever.

If he wants to judge Boston literally, then I suppose he's justified - meaning how Boston struggled in the first two games, but won convincingly in NY vs a depleted NY Team.

But - using that same logic doesn't explain to me NOH's (Minus David West) spirited play vs a fully loaded Lakers team, and how CP3 is somehow carrying NOH on his own.

Hollinger completely leaves out the intangibles with Boston. He (IMO) completely forgets "The Steal By Bird and Pass to DJ"....he forgets how Boston was counted out vs MIA and ORL last year...he forgot a young Rondo and Perk's very spirited play without KG or Powe back in 08-09 playoffs. He forgets 'Toine and Paul carrying Boston in the early 2000's.

He completely leaves out "Celtic Mystique", to me.

He sees what is on the surface too much. I am starting to see his pattern now.

TP, right on the money.  If you ask Hollinger to analyze the stats, he's one of the best, but he just doesn't have an eye for the intangibles that win or lose a game.

[TheReaLPuba]

I hope everyone continues to sleep on our Celtics.

We know who we are.

We're Champions.

[Fan from VT]

Great News. 

yea, I have to admit, I would have been a bit worried if he picked the celtics to win the series considering his track record

Like when he picked them in '08...and they won it all.

[prov1ml34]

I won't hate on Hollinger, because he is almost solely a stats guy, with almost no eye for the actual intangibles.  Based on the stats (which, reminder, ESPN wants him to analyze the stats) the Heat SHOULD beat us easily.  I respect Hollinger for what he is supposed to do, he is very good at his job, and that is analyzing stats, but he doesn't know how to quantify the intangibles that show up.  There is no stat for KG getting into Bosh's head.  No stat for LeBron getting flustered to end a game.

Whether the Heat or Celtic's win the series (also, I'd like to add, it's very unprofessional to say the Heat will beat the Celtic's easily, when they haven't even won their first round series yet) it is by no means going to be a breeze for either team.  It's going to be a tough series either way.

Well if he is going to go by regular season "stats", how about the one KEY stat that matters over everything else which is Boston beat Miami 3-1 in their regular season matchups?! I don't care how many stats and numbers he crunches, if he is going to go strictly by stats then how can he claim they will "breeze past us easily" when we beat them 75% of the time in the regular season. He is an absolute moron and there is no method to his retardness madness

[aporel#18]

Every once in a while, some BSPN "experts" predict the Celtics are not winning, and, if KG's knee didn't injure, the Celtics would be looking for a four-peat.

It sounds like an scratched LP record...but again, we're the underdogs. Great, let the Miami Hype Machine come. Celtics in 5, we're stealing game 1 and then games 3,4 and 5 in a ghost AA Arena.

Go Celtics!!

[18isGREATERthan72]

I won't hate on Hollinger, because he is almost solely a stats guy, with almost no eye for the actual intangibles.  Based on the stats (which, reminder, ESPN wants him to analyze the stats) the Heat SHOULD beat us easily.  I respect Hollinger for what he is supposed to do, he is very good at his job, and that is analyzing stats, but he doesn't know how to quantify the intangibles that show up.  There is no stat for KG getting into Bosh's head.  No stat for LeBron getting flustered to end a game.

Whether the Heat or Celtic's win the series (also, I'd like to add, it's very unprofessional to say the Heat will beat the Celtic's easily, when they haven't even won their first round series yet) it is by no means going to be a breeze for either team.  It's going to be a tough series either way.

Well if he is going to go by regular season "stats", how about the one KEY stat that matters over everything else which is Boston beat Miami 3-1 in their regular season matchups?! I don't care how many stats and numbers he crunches, if he is going to go strictly by stats then how can he claim they will "breeze past us easily" when we beat them 75% of the time in the regular season. He is an absolute moron and there is no recipe to his retardness madness

So the Wizards should have beaten us in 08?

The argument against that is our wins came early in the season, when the Heat hadn't gelled yet.  At the end of the season, they beat us, even though the Celtic's were in a slump.  Even though I disagree with the last game being an indicator of how a series would play out, I'd like to also add that our team is much different than it was to start the season, and the Heat are clearly better.

To make myself clear, I think the Celtics will win the series with the Heat, and I don't agree with Hollinger, but I can't be mad at him for doing what he was hired to do, and that is analyze the stats.  It's like getting mad at a priest for trying to convert someone.

[kozlodoev]

Hollinger's entire basis for his argument is invalid. He's essentially saying that, even though the Celtics won the first two games, they didn't have solid execution and looked a bit sloppy. The last two games were better though, and they swept the series.

Actually no, that's not at all what he is saying.

He points out (correctly) that the last two games were against a decimated Knicks team, who wasn't that good to begin with. So for what it's worth, that the Celtics came down to the wire against a full-roster Knicks team is a question mark.

And yes, his points are valid and it's up to the Celtics to prove that they can run with the big dogs. Which is alright.

[birdwatcher]

The funny thing about Hollinger is that most of his stats/numbers usually prove that he is wrong in general. He picked against the C's pretty much until game 7 last season. He also predicted the decline of the big three two seasons too early. But that's cool--I put about as much credence into a Hollinger prediciton as I d a Marc Stein Power Ranking. Who cares. Give the C's as much ammo as you want, national media!

[PaulPierce34G]

I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be some mathematical explanation involved...after all, this guy is crazy obsessed with the numbers game and relating it to hoops. 

I can't say the Celtics will definitively get by the Heat, but I can say it will be a good series.  I like reading a lot of articles on ESPN, but I steer away from Hollinger.  His rationale with numbers makes sense, purely statistical, but it can't predict and show the value of team chemistry, heart, soul and passion that certain teams and players have.

[Yogi]

A drunk with a sign said the world will end in three days... Oh never mind, I thought this thread was about people, who no one cares about, making idiotic statements. 

[OsirusCeltics]

Knicks at full strength is better than the Heat at full strength. Everyone is forgetting that

[Neurotic Guy]

Predictions don't matter. The C's don't need underdog status to motivate them and The Heat will not get overconfident just because most 'experts' pick them.
If I had to guess who I think will win the series, I'd say the Heat.  They have HCA, 2 of the best players in the game, and a 3rd player who is top 20 (or so).   They won a ton of games after their 8-9 start and they've shown improvement throughout the year.  Their 2 megastars have both been to the Finals so you can't count on them being fazed by the intensity of the playoffs.  The C's are an injury to an injury-prone center away from having little chance to win. 

The Knicks series was great and I am comforted that they looked stronger as the series progressed, but they'll need a whole new level of performance to beat the Heat.  The C's can do it; but it certainly isn't illogical to pick the Heat.  But again, thinking that the Heat will probably win means absolutely nothing.