Hollinger says "Heat will breeze past us easily in the second round"

[celticslove]

^true Lebron can shoot and i'd rather have him shoot from the perimeter all night than driving and going to the freethrow line.

[wahz]

I see KG outplaying Bosh. I see KG guarding the lane ferociously and getting boards like he hasn't in recent years and Bosh frustrating us by hitting some jumpers. Celtics win that matchup.

I see Shaq and JO playing 30+ minutes a game and supplying total numbers that remind us of Perk's production but more blocks, less rebounds and more no dribble dunks. I see a few minutes from Krstic and several from Baby. We nearly dominate the match up but we get too many crappy fouls and Anthony brings energy and hurts us with offensive boards.

Rondo looks like the greatest player in video game history
but allows some blow bys and wide open jumpers that keep Miami in some of the games. Complete domination: Celtics.

PP plays all world d but gets into foul trouble, shoots too often and poorly, and Lebron controls the match up. Lebron doesn't shoot well for the series though. Green looks lost at times but has a couple good offensive games running the floor and tries to body up Lebron much to our surprise. Lebron shoots a lot of freebies but hits only about 70% of them. He never says anything about his elbow and stops acting hurt after every collision.

Ray cools off but gets open for a fair number of threes and makes a reasonable amount. He wears D Wade down and Wade looks sweaty like he always does against Ray, like a guy who took too much benadryl and has a fever on top of it. Additionally, Wade complains about having headaches, the flu, a bad back, a sore ankle and a stiff neck.  Wade has a couple good games but the match up is about even. D West is on fire from three throuout the series and hits everyone he runs by and doesn't get hurt.

Celtics win the first game and the series in 5 or 6

[chambers]

I see KG outplaying Bosh. I see KG guarding the lane ferociously and getting boards like he hasn't in recent years and Bosh frustrating us by hitting some jumpers. Celtics win that matchup.

I see Shaq and JO playing 30+ minutes a game and supplying total numbers that remind us of Perk's production but more blocks, less rebounds and more no dribble dunks. I see a few minutes from Krstic and several from Baby. We nearly dominate the match up but we get too many crappy fouls and Anthony brings energy and hurts us with offensive boards.

Rondo looks like the greatest player in video game history
but allows some blow bys and wide open jumpers that keep Miami in some of the games. Complete domination: Celtics.

PP plays all world d but gets into foul trouble, shoots too often and poorly, and Lebron controls the match up. Lebron doesn't shoot well for the series though. Green looks lost at times but has a couple good offensive games running the floor and tries to body up Lebron much to our surprise. Lebron shoots a lot of freebies but hits only about 70% of them. He never says anything about his elbow and stops acting hurt after every collision.

Ray cools off but gets open for a fair number of threes and makes a reasonable amount. He wears D Wade down and Wade looks sweaty like he always does against Ray, like a guy who took too much benadryl and has a fever on top of it. Additionally, Wade complains about having headaches, the flu, a bad back, a sore ankle and a stiff neck.  Wade has a couple good games but the match up is about even. D West is on fire from three throuout the series and hits everyone he runs by and doesn't get hurt.

Celtics win the first game and the series in 5 or 6

You forgot to add:
Dwight Howard announces he'll join the Celtics in 2012 and that Lebron's mom announces she is having a beautiful baby courtesy of a Mr D.West.
Oh and both D. Rose and Kobe break their ankles on the same day in the 2nd round.

[drza44]

I'm going to really have to go into the lab and break some things down before I could make a realistic prediction for this series.  I will say that, as others have alluded to, the Heat are the team that scares me the most in the East and are right there with the Lakers as far as teams that worry me.  But, a few of my initial thoughts:

1) The Strengths/weaknesses match-up between the Heat and Celtics seem to favor the Cs.  Said another way, I think the Celtics are more built to blunt the Heat's strengths than vice-versa and that the Celtics are more built to take advantage of the Heat's weaknesses than vice versa.

For example, the Heat (obviously) have huge talent in the iso and are outstanding when they can get out and run.  The Celtics' defense, on the other hand, is built to prevent iso scoring and to slow down fast breaks.

Then, the Heat's defensive strength is in their athletic 2 - 4 positions that hide their point guard and allow their centers to not have to do so much to anchor the defense.  The Celtics, on the other hand, have a point guard that gets to the rim and bigs that can take advantage of donuts (think what Rondo and KG did to the Cavs last year, which is compounded even further if Shaq can come back and contribute a few minutes).

Those are just examples, but I think in general the Celtics are more built to defeat the Heat than vice versa.  Of course, none of that means for sure that the Celtics actually DO beat the Heat...but I think they should be favored.  Right now "Celtics in 6" seems like a reasonable default prediction.

[jdpapa3]

Spoelstra should pull a Bulls and put Joel Anthony on KG and put Bosh on Jermaine.

Hollinger's stuff has been skewed the past couple of years by the Lakers/Celtics letting up on the throttle in the regular season. He had Suns in 6 over the Lakers last season. Orlando over us in 5 is just bad analysis for a guy paid to write for the sport.

[throwedoff]

People are putting too much stock into that loss at the end of the season as long as rondo plays like he's capable of we should be fine. Why are everyone making the heat out to be some super dominate team?? not only did they lose a game but 3 outta the 4 games in the series were close they only had 1 blowout against philly there is no way I'm admitting defeat to the Heat, we're gonna win on their homecourt Celtics in 6

[wahz]

I see KG outplaying Bosh. I see KG guarding the lane ferociously and getting boards like he hasn't in recent years and Bosh frustrating us by hitting some jumpers. Celtics win that matchup.

I see Shaq and JO playing 30+ minutes a game and supplying total numbers that remind us of Perk's production but more blocks, less rebounds and more no dribble dunks. I see a few minutes from Krstic and several from Baby. We nearly dominate the match up but we get too many crappy fouls and Anthony brings energy and hurts us with offensive boards.

Rondo looks like the greatest player in video game history
but allows some blow bys and wide open jumpers that keep Miami in some of the games. Complete domination: Celtics.

PP plays all world d but gets into foul trouble, shoots too often and poorly, and Lebron controls the match up. Lebron doesn't shoot well for the series though. Green looks lost at times but has a couple good offensive games running the floor and tries to body up Lebron much to our surprise. Lebron shoots a lot of freebies but hits only about 70% of them. He never says anything about his elbow and stops acting hurt after every collision.

Ray cools off but gets open for a fair number of threes and makes a reasonable amount. He wears D Wade down and Wade looks sweaty like he always does against Ray, like a guy who took too much benadryl and has a fever on top of it. Additionally, Wade complains about having headaches, the flu, a bad back, a sore ankle and a stiff neck.  Wade has a couple good games but the match up is about even. D West is on fire from three throuout the series and hits everyone he runs by and doesn't get hurt.

Celtics win the first game and the series in 5 or 6

You forgot to add:
Dwight Howard announces he'll join the Celtics in 2012 and that Lebron's mom announces she is having a beautiful baby courtesy of a Mr D.West.
Oh and both D. Rose and Kobe break their ankles on the same day in the 2nd round.

Oh you think that is a bigger fantasy than what Hollinger said?

[Q_FBE]

Breeze past easily is right there in itself faulty analysis. Witnessing the 1st round, every game is hotly contested just about. I don't see the Lakers breezing easily past the Hornets. Indiana is giving Chicago a real rough series. Philly is not laying down for Miami. Denver and Portland are standing up and fighting. Look at Memphis vs San Antonio. Now Atlanta appears to be breezing easily past Orlando if anything.

You don't easily breeze past another team in the NBA playoffs. Hollinger's regular season mathematical models is absolutely worthless in picking play-off winners.

Going by the case precedents - We will have our war with My Hammy which I think we'll win having never lost to Lebron, Wade, or Bosh.

We will have our war with Chicago and it will be respectfully intense.

Hopefully, there will be a little score to settle in the middle of June.

[LooseCannon]

I like the theory about Hollinger over at TRed's Army:

The C's turn it over a lot, don't rebound, and shoot a ton of long 2's... it defies his statistical logic so he brushes them of. Like he's running around his office screaming "does not compute... DOES... NOT... COMPUTE..." before his head explodes.

Are the Celtics just a bizarre outlier sort of team so that Hollinger's predictions are decent when the Celtics are not involved, or does he make bad predictions about everything?

[slamtheking]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

[18isGREATERthan72]

I like the theory about Hollinger over at TRed's Army:

The C's turn it over a lot, don't rebound, and shoot a ton of long 2's... it defies his statistical logic so he brushes them of. Like he's running around his office screaming "does not compute... DOES... NOT... COMPUTE..." before his head explodes.

Are the Celtics just a bizarre outlier sort of team so that Hollinger's predictions are decent when the Celtics are not involved, or does he make bad predictions about everything?

No, the Celtics have a lot of "bizarre" stats that sort of defy the conventional wisdom of how to win games.  For one, their total rebounds a game is very low.  They don't shoot a lot of 3's, but shoot a lot of less efficient long 2's.  They turn the ball over a lot.

They get by because they have a great defense that can defend second, and even third chance points before they secure the rebound, and their FG% is excellent.

[fairweatherfan]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions. 

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along. 

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

[Fan from VT]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions.  

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along.  

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

Or the priceless "well, i thought team x would win, but i totally saw how they could lose, and was on top of that the whole time." Right both ways...classic.



But seriously, i find the following logic prevalent and amazing:

-Guy "relies" on stats ---> not right all the time ----> therefore, method is useless

-Guy relies on "his/her eye"----> is sometimes write, ignores/not accountable for when wrong, often has waffling points of view such that can hedge right or wrong ----> Method is valid.



Going into the playoffs the last three years, hollinger picked the C's to win it in '08 and not in '09 or '10. That's pretty good, i'd say.

[BballTim]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

  I don't think you should rely on stats too much but I also don't think they're useless. Most people are somewhat biased when they watch games.

[Fafnir]

Hollinger --> proof that relying on stats to evaluate players and teams in the NBA is a flawed belief system at best.

When I see people on the site quoting stats to back up their beliefs about the C's (good or bad), I can't help but equate them with Hollinger and his track record on this team (which isn't very good).

Watching the games is a far better tool at evaluating the play of a team.  It can lead to subjective opinions but watching a team reveals a lot more about how they're playing

As much as stats can go completely awry, especially when you lean heavily on a few like Hollinger does, absolutely nothing compares to the error rate of subjective opinions. 

Subjective opinions only look good when evaluated...well, subjectively, and usually by the person holding the opinion.  The easiest example of this is selectively remembering your opinions that were correct, forgetting the ones that were way off, and spinning the kinda-right, kinda-wrong opinions into having been right all along. 

Stats aren't perfect by any means, but they help to provide structure and context to what we actually see on the court.  That's why so many fans now use them to some degree.

My favorite example of this is the post in another thread bashing Hollinger's predictions with GIFs where he was wrong.

08 Finals
10 First Round
10 Second Round
10 ECF

They leave out the 10 Finals, the 08 First Round, 08 Second Round, etc...