Miami lost Chris Bosh and LA lost Odom..so, I consider it a wash. I don't think Miami gets past LA in this league especially if Pau plays agrresive. Miami doesn't have any answer for Pau....and Haywood is not a bad center either...like you said, the bigs win it for LA.
Wait, what? I'm challenging the call on the field. You're absolutely right about Gasol. But let's see you justify calling the talent gap between Chris Bosh/Josh Smith and Lamar Odom/Anthony Randolph "a wash." And ask around, I definitely ride for Randolph.
I'm in your boat for the most part. I wonder about the offensive stepdown from Bynum to Haywood, but I am pretty confident that if push comes to shove (which is why I'm about to say the next part..he's good at shoving and pushing..) I'd almost rather have Haywood as a defensive center next to Gasol. He's less injury prone, he's tougher (I think), and he's been around long enough to know how to work the post, whereas Bynum is much more reliant on physical gift.
The problem, as I see it for Miami, is two-fold. 1) Josh Smith can't really leave Gasol. Because of that, he can't roam, and because of that, he's half the defensive player he's capable of. In transition, Smith is just as effective, and because of his new found 3pt touch, Gasol can't really work too much in the paint either, and Smith should be able to score, or LeBron and Wade will just abuse LA in the paint (also because of Diaw's versatility..Haywood will be outclassed when Diaw wants to move around). But, the fact remains that on defense, Josh Smith is not a viable answer for Gasol.
2) Brendan Haywood is not a good offensive center..but having Boris Diaw defend him is kind of akin to having a 5'5 knife-fighter defend a viking with a warhammer. The war-hammer is unwieldy, its not subtle, but against a knife if left to swing on its own, it'll dominate. Haywood has the possibility of having a 20pt game on Diaw, which Miami can't afford.
Which brings us to Timo. Timo will stop Haywood..sure. And in a year or two, Timo might even be a starting caliber center...especially if this whole Denver/NY thing goes though in real life and Gallo goes west...then Timo will get the PT to become a viable option. But this year, while he's shown flashes..he's not even a 20 mins guy on a contending team. Fouls too often..just doesn't get the NBA yet.
Which kind of leaves you at the impasse. Is the combination of Wade/James enough to make sure that Gasol/Haywood can't ruin Miami's shot at a title...I don't know. LeBron James can do a lot..but he can't guard a gifted 7fter like Gasol, and he's not going to help there..and between the disparity of Bryant/Batum and Wade/James vs the disparity of Gasol/Haywood vs Smith/Diaw or Mosgov..I think LA probably has the advantage.