Is Avery Bradley destined to be a Bust?!

[Brendan]

BTW Rondo and Billups were both MUCH MUCH better over their first year in the league, its not even a comparison. AB has a -6 PER right now - that's terrible bad, not ready for the NBADL bad.

Again their may be valid reasons why, but at this point you to be worried he just sucks...

No you don't unless you have no concept of how rookies have progressed throughout the history of the NBA.  But by all means please worry without sufficient evidence to worry.

Please explain how rookies progress throughout the history of the NBA and provide examples to support your reasoning. Because of the Celtics rookies that have made it over the last ten years, they have all shown immediate signs of doing at least one thing well (with the exception of Perkins.)

All of these guys looked like they had at least one NBA skill from minute 1, not minute 10, or game 10, or game 40.
- Ryan Gomes
- BBD
- Powe
- West
- T. Allen
- Rondo
- Jefferson

Perkins is the only guy I've seen the Celtics develop that looked clueless from day one - and even then he had size from day one, no college, and was well known to be a project. With AB we're hearing "NBA defender already" - yet he looks CLUELESS in the defensive system and seems to lack basic NBA defensive skills.

Again - I'm not saying he won't make it, these things happen, but being this bad in limited time really lessons his chances.

By all means keep seeing the world through rose colored glasses and checking on Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, and Pat O'Bryant - I'm sure they're all following the normal career progression to stardom.

[Neurotic Guy]

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

[Steve Weinman]

To attempt to put things in perspective, how much have we heard from the #2 pick, Evan Turner? Not much. He started a few games, but has been injured and even when he started, he was not that spectacular.

Same with Derrick Favors, the number 3 pick.

AB will be fine.

I don't bring this up to contradict you about Bradley (as I'm in the "wait and see until he's accumulated a bit more than 38 NBA minutes" camp), but in the interest of accuracy, it's quite a reach to compare "how much we have heard" from Turner and Favors as though they're the same simply because they were top-three picks playing reserve minutes.

Turner, as you suggest, has been largely unproductive thus far, particularly as a scorer, a regard in which he has been remarkably inefficient (46.3 percent true shooting is abominable).  His rebounding has been solid so far for a player at his position, as he ranks well among twos in rebound rate (especially defensively).

Favors, on the other hand, has been one of the league's top 10 offensive rebounders this season (13.3 percent), a solid rebounder overall (17.1 percent) and is scoring 12.3 points per 36 minutes on an efficient 57.2 percent TS.  He has foul trouble issues and other concerns to work out, but by and large, he's done a fine job in his 18.9 minutes per game for NJ.

-sw

[EJPLAYA]

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

You can't use "some" show nothing and turn into something and then only give one example. (Perk) Perk actually did show something and that was size. He also showed an ability to rebound. 1.4 boards in 3.5 minutes isn't too shabby!

Fact is that almost no one comes out in their first year, training camp or no, and shows almost nothing out there and turns into a legit player. Bradley is in shape and not injured. There are no excuses. He can't dribble which basically forces him into being a terribly undersized 2 guard. He at best shows flashes of some defensive ability but really looks clueless for the most part. He also has that Tony Allen "stupid" look on his face like he can't understand why he sucks out there. That worries me more than anything. No frustration that he isn't playing well. No anger that he has made a mistake. Just looks numb. To this day TA is baffled that he turned the ball over doing the same thing that caused 1000 other turnovers in his career. I see much more promise of a disappointing career than a solid one and that would indeed be a bust! I was thrilled when we got this kid. The games he has gotten into have gradually turned that into where we are now. Too bad.

[Brendan]

Again - I'm in the wait and see camp, but its the AB is not plan A or B part of that camp. The main thing I expected was his man D to show some signs of goodness, it just wasn't there. Otherwise, everything else I could over look.

Put it this way with what we've learned about AB since he was drafted is it more or less likely he's a bust? The answer is more, that's not the same as 100% chance of bust.

[Assassin70]

I will wait and see.

But what I has seen so far....not a fan.

[Neurotic Guy]

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

You can't use "some" show nothing and turn into something and then only give one example. (Perk) Perk actually did show something and that was size. He also showed an ability to rebound. 1.4 boards in 3.5 minutes isn't too shabby!

Fact is that almost no one comes out in their first year, training camp or no, and shows almost nothing out there and turns into a legit player.

I also cannot find the first 35 minutes of all NBA players in order find the ones who looked terrible statistically - I'm just guessing there have been 'some'.   And if you are going to draw positive conclusions from Perk's first 35 minutes and his 1.4 boards, you might have just found Avery Bradley's 'something' -- .4 steals in 5 minutes translates to about 3 steals per 36 minutes!  The league leader, Chris Paul is averaging a relatively pedestrian 2.8. 

[Snakehead]

I shouldn't be surprised, but can't believe how prematurely people are judging Bradley.  Doc hardly plays rookies and Bradley is very young, he might as well of came out of high school.  I will wait and see with him, but he is not destined to be a bust, that's a pretty ridiculous statement.

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

You can't use "some" show nothing and turn into something and then only give one example. (Perk) Perk actually did show something and that was size. He also showed an ability to rebound. 1.4 boards in 3.5 minutes isn't too shabby!

Fact is that almost no one comes out in their first year, training camp or no, and shows almost nothing out there and turns into a legit player.

I also cannot find the first 35 minutes of all NBA players in order find the ones who looked terrible statistically - I'm just guessing there have been 'some'.   And if you are going to draw positive conclusions from Perk's first 35 minutes and his 1.4 boards, you might have just found Avery Bradley's 'something' -- .4 steals in 5 minutes translates to about 3 steals per 36 minutes!  The league leader, Chris Paul is averaging a relatively pedestrian 2.8. 

Great post Neurotic.  You just can't judge rookies off super limited playing time.  In addition to your steal stat you mentioned compared to Perk's rebound stat, I'd also throw in Bradley's speed and quickness showing potential just like Perk's size did.

[Datruthtakesover34]

Doc doesnt play rookies dude is like 19 or 20 plus hes on a team wit  4 future HOF plus rondo arguably the best pg in the nba, so how can he be a bust he hasnt gotten a chance to play plus hes been injured, cant be that quick to make judgments, i thought baby was gonna be a bust look at him now, double digits off the bench, hes developed a very effiecient mid range shot, if he was on another team i wouldnt be surprised if he became an all star.

[EJPLAYA]

I shouldn't be surprised, but can't believe how prematurely people are judging Bradley.  Doc hardly plays rookies and Bradley is very young, he might as well of came out of high school.  I will wait and see with him, but he is not destined to be a bust, that's a pretty ridiculous statement.

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

You can't use "some" show nothing and turn into something and then only give one example. (Perk) Perk actually did show something and that was size. He also showed an ability to rebound. 1.4 boards in 3.5 minutes isn't too shabby!

Fact is that almost no one comes out in their first year, training camp or no, and shows almost nothing out there and turns into a legit player.

I also cannot find the first 35 minutes of all NBA players in order find the ones who looked terrible statistically - I'm just guessing there have been 'some'.   And if you are going to draw positive conclusions from Perk's first 35 minutes and his 1.4 boards, you might have just found Avery Bradley's 'something' -- .4 steals in 5 minutes translates to about 3 steals per 36 minutes!  The league leader, Chris Paul is averaging a relatively pedestrian 2.8. 

Great post Neurotic.  You just can't judge rookies off super limited playing time.  In addition to your steal stat you mentioned compared to Perk's rebound stat, I'd also throw in Bradley's speed and quickness showing potential just like Perk's size did.

I agree with the fact that the stat is helpful. At least he made an attempt to back up his argument which is rare on here! TP Neurotic.

As far as the speed and quickness, why not just suit up Floyd Mayweather then. He's lightning fast. Oh that's right… He can't dribble either!

All I am hearing on here is he's young. Give him time. He has potential… No one will address that the guy that we want to be our backup PG can't dribble the basketball. No one will address that he doesn't appear to have NBA talent from what he has shown on  the floor. If he was 6'5" I'd say not to worry he'll be a solid defender and a good shooting two guard maybe. At 6'2" he's appearing to be just another over-hyped high schooler who doesn't have the skillset to play the only position he is big enough for in this league. Sorry, but no matter what anyone says, you can't LEARN to dribble in the NBA. If you are short and can't, you never will.

[ballin]

I shouldn't be surprised, but can't believe how prematurely people are judging Bradley.  Doc hardly plays rookies and Bradley is very young, he might as well of came out of high school.  I will wait and see with him, but he is not destined to be a bust, that's a pretty ridiculous statement.

Brendan -- I think you are correct that most players who make it in the NBA show something -- at least a hint -- in the early going.  But 2 other facts remain: Some show something and turn into nothing (Kedrick Brown); Some show nothing and turn into something (Perk).  I don't have the time for an exhaustive search on this, but 35 minutes of mostly garbage time cannot precisely foretell an NBA career for anyone, much less a defense-minded 20 year old who missed preseason. 

You can't use "some" show nothing and turn into something and then only give one example. (Perk) Perk actually did show something and that was size. He also showed an ability to rebound. 1.4 boards in 3.5 minutes isn't too shabby!

Fact is that almost no one comes out in their first year, training camp or no, and shows almost nothing out there and turns into a legit player.

I also cannot find the first 35 minutes of all NBA players in order find the ones who looked terrible statistically - I'm just guessing there have been 'some'.   And if you are going to draw positive conclusions from Perk's first 35 minutes and his 1.4 boards, you might have just found Avery Bradley's 'something' -- .4 steals in 5 minutes translates to about 3 steals per 36 minutes!  The league leader, Chris Paul is averaging a relatively pedestrian 2.8. 

Great post Neurotic.  You just can't judge rookies off super limited playing time.  In addition to your steal stat you mentioned compared to Perk's rebound stat, I'd also throw in Bradley's speed and quickness showing potential just like Perk's size did.

I agree with the fact that the stat is helpful. At least he made an attempt to back up his argument which is rare on here! TP Neurotic.

As far as the speed and quickness, why not just suit up Floyd Mayweather then. He's lightning fast. Oh that's right… He can't dribble either!

All I am hearing on here is he's young. Give him time. He has potential… No one will address that the guy that we want to be our backup PG can't dribble the basketball. No one will address that he doesn't appear to have NBA talent from what he has shown on  the floor. If he was 6'5" I'd say not to worry he'll be a solid defender and a good shooting two guard maybe. At 6'2" he's appearing to be just another over-hyped high schooler who doesn't have the skillset to play the only position he is big enough for in this league. Sorry, but no matter what anyone says, you can't LEARN to dribble in the NBA. If you are short and can't, you never will.

I pretty much agree with this post, except for one thing: are we all REALLY sure he can't dribble? He's obviously off to a terrible start and he's gotten his pockets picked a couple of times, but so did Stephon Marbury when he first showed up in Boston. While I regret comparing Avery to that nutcase, at least nobody would say Marbury couldn't dribble.

So in my opinion, it's a confidence thing. Once (or should I say, if) he gets some swagger, he could surprise people I think.

But if I had to make the call today, I'll admit I'd conclude he's a bust. What else would you call a 6'2 pg who can't shoot, make free throws, make plays, or dribble?

[Bankshot]

Doc doesnt play rookies dude is like 19 or 20 plus hes on a team wit  4 future HOF plus rondo arguably the best pg in the nba, so how can he be a bust he hasnt gotten a chance to play plus hes been injured, cant be that quick to make judgments, i thought baby was gonna be a bust look at him now, double digits off the bench, hes developed a very effiecient mid range shot, if he was on another team i wouldnt be surprised if he became an all star.

He plays rookies that have shown something.  Big Baby got some crucial minutes in the regular season when he was a rookie.

[snively]

Avery Bradley is 6'3 with long arms and excellent athleticism.  If D. West and JJ Redick can see big minutes at the 2, Avery should be able to as well.  The PG experiment should wait until he develops some comfort level on the court.  Poor judgment on the team's part to force him into that role early, IMHO.

His defense looks very promising and he's got the repertoire to score some points at the, but he makes terrible decisions when initiating the offense.

[ManUp]

I've been impressed with his defense, but offensively he's been pretty bad. It's pretty clear to me that he's not a point, he looks nervous and uncomfortable bringing the ball up. He won't be a bust, but I'm not sure we're the best situation for him is. We're pretty set at the point with Rondo, and I like Nate as a backup. I feel Avery is a shooting guard, but I would hate to play him there with this team. He's either going to develop in practice/riding the pine or we trade him and he finds a role elsewhere.

[Redz]

I've been impressed with his defense, but offensively he's been pretty bad. It's pretty clear to me that he's not a point, he looks nervous and uncomfortable bringing the ball up. He won't be a bust, but I'm not sure we're the best situation for him is. We're pretty set at the point with Rondo, and I like Nate as a backup. I feel Avery is a shooting guard, but I would hate to play him there with this team. He's either going to develop in practice/riding the pine or we trade him and he finds a role elsewhere.

The only extended minutes I've seen from him he was burned badly by a second stringer in Teague.  Doc talks a lot about his D being ready, and I'll take his word on it I suppose, but he's been pretty iffy in the minutes I've seen.