My esteemed colleague in Houston is correct (9-5 job, teaching 2 classes at night & planning a wedding at the end of the year).
How ironic too that Lucky17 and I (co-gms last year) would face off in the 1st round. It's no accident that our teams are similarly constructed. Great minds and all that....
I"ll keep this short for the reasons above and b/c of my respect for L17. TP my friend.
Feel the love. Right back at ya, GC.
Why (IMO) Denver wins this series:
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1. Tim Duncan - still can't count out the big fella and I just dont think anyone on HOU can defend him in a playoff series.
In their last 6 games head to head, since January 2008, Dalembert's teams are 3-3 vs. Duncan's. Duncan has outscored Dalembert 112 to 54 in those games, which is no real surprise, given Dalembert's lack of offense and Duncan being the #1 option on his team. However, Dalembert outrebounded Duncan in those 6 games, by a 66 to 61 margin. Sam can hold his own on the boards vs. Duncan, and limit Denver's opportunities to score second chance points. Limiting Duncan to less than 20 points a game sounds like a good start for us to win this series. I'm confident that the help defense/doubling strategy I outlined earlier will further diminish Duncan's scoring output.
2. Defense on Granger - Lucky rightfully points out that Granger is HOU's main offensive weapon, but unlike HOU's lack of matchup vs. our #1 guy, we can counter with one of the best wing defenders in the game in Trevor Ariza. For this matchup we'll also go at him with Josh Childress, but mostly Ariza.
As a SF, Ariza posts a PER of 15.2, vs. his opponents' 16.7. Granger normally posts an average PER of 21.1 as a SF (vs. his opponents 14.9).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=arizatr01&p2=grangda01Just this past season, in their two games head to head, Granger posted a 36 point night vs. Ariza, and an 18 point night (in only 22 minutes of play). I think the difference between our respective #1s and their main defenders is not at all in Denver's favor.
3. Backcourt defense - I'm high on OJ Mayo as an offensive threat and think TParker will return to form this year, but they will be facing 2 of the better defensive guards in Westbrook & Ronnie Brewer (who will start vs. Mayo; letting Thronton come off the bench in a Manu-like role).
Ironic that we both look to start a defensive SG to neutralize our opponent's presumptive starter. I think the backcourt battles are essentially a wash. The PG battle between starters will be an exciting one, and perhaps a slight edge overall to Westbrook, but I think my SG tandem (Afflalo/Mayo) and backup PG (Sessions) are slightly better than Denver's (Thornton/Brewer, Blake)
4. Westbrook - I think I'm higher on Westbrook than most, but lost in Durant's emergence is the fact that WB is clearly developing into a 1A talent alongside Durant in OKC. Players that step their game up (like WB did) in the playoffs show me they're ready to make a leap. It's not dissimilar to Parker's emergence in his 2nd year (and the Spurs' finals run).
No question, Westbrook is rounding into a solid player. But he's still an inconsistent/poor shooter. I envision putting Afflalo on him, disrupting Westbrook's ability to drive to the basket and create for his teammates.
5. HOU defense - Outside of the hot/cold Dalembert and maybe Afflalo there are few above-average defenders on HOU. The criticism of DEN has been a potential lack of scoring, but that is not amplified at all vs. HOU, and may be helped vs. guys like Diaw and Mayo who are uncommited on the defensive end.
Mayo won't be expected to play great defense on a nightly basis, although I think he'd do well vs. Thornton. Still, as I pointed out earlier. I have four players in Diaw, Granger, Hickson, and Jerebko who each averaged better than 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocks per game. I've got great length and versatility in my forward rotation, plus a superior backup C in Pachulia (vs. the phlegmatic Darko).
Why DEN might lose:
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1. Haters are always gonna hate 
2. If Duncan gets hurt HOU wins going away.
3. If JVG, my pick for coach who Lucky of course stole, gets HOU to play a brand of defense they've not played individually before.
I'd add #4: if Denver can't hit open jumpers. I'll take my chances daring the Nuggets to beat me from the perimeter.
Topic: CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference (Read 52171 times)