CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[Who]

Phoenix's big problem is that they drafted 4 shooting guards and only selected 1 small forward. That makes it very difficult for them to be flexible with their lineups without creating vulnerabilities elsewhere.

Their shooting guards lack versatility. They -- Salmons, Wes, Rudy -- are all serviceable in a secondary position but are considerably less effective than in their primary position.

The only player who can play multiple positions at a solid level across the perimeter is Terrence Williams. He lacks size as a small forward and is vulnerable in certain matchups (G.Wallace, Kleiza) but can otherwise play the position at a solid level. He can play the two at a good level and I am very intrigued by potential as a point guard. Unfortunately, against New Orleans, the matchup at small forward is unfavourable for T-Will so he can't play that position either.

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That makes Phoenix very small on the wings in terms of both defense and rebounding.

Luckily for them, New Orleans has smallish two guards in Eric Gordon and Raja Bell which limits their exposure. So the problem is at the three spot with both Gerald Wallace and Linas Kleiza.

[Who]

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

The one thing I worry about is playing Baron + Salmons + Hedo together alongside Dwight Howard.

Hedo Turkoglu has to have the ball in his hands to create a matchup advantage versus Horford. If he has to fight for touches - and Hedo is very passive when it comes to this - with Baron and Salmons ... then the negatives of playing him at the four (defense / rebounding) will outweigh the positives and allow Horford to keep the advantage matchup wise.

In order to get Hedo enough touches, you'll have to bench John Salmons. That will force Wes Matthews to defend Gerald Wallace which is a large advantage in New Orleans' favour.

If you don't bench John Salmons, Hedo won't receive enough touches and Horford will continue to have a matchup advantage at the four.

[StartOrien]

I'll be the first to admit, I think I drew a tough matchup out of the gates. And coming off as a reactionary move is something I can guarantee I thought about. I'm well aware that it draws more attention to this matchup than I'd like.

I ended up deciding that it was better to address the Jamison mistmatch as opposed to ignoring it.

[StartOrien]

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

The one thing I worry about is playing Baron + Salmons + Hedo together alongside Dwight Howard.

Hedo Turkoglu has to have the ball in his hands to create a matchup advantage versus Horford. If he has to fight for touches - and Hedo is very passive when it comes to this - with Baron and Salmons ... then the negatives of playing him at the four (defense / rebounding) will outweigh the positives and allow Horford to keep the advantage matchup wise.

In order to get Hedo enough touches, you'll have to bench John Salmons. That will force Wes Matthews to defend Gerald Wallace which is a large advantage in New Orleans' favour.

If you don't bench John Salmons, Hedo won't receive enough touches and Horford will continue to have a matchup advantage at the four.

Or I could go with:

Howard
Monroe
Turkoglu/Salmons
Matthews/Williams/Fernandez
Davis

[StartOrien]

I'm contractually obligated to post this video again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXO0e-zmtz8

[The Walker Wiggle]

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

The one thing I worry about is playing Baron + Salmons + Hedo together alongside Dwight Howard.

Hedo Turkoglu has to have the ball in his hands to create a matchup advantage versus Horford. If he has to fight for touches - and Hedo is very passive when it comes to this - with Baron and Salmons ... then the negatives of playing him at the four (defense / rebounding) will outweigh the positives and allow Horford to keep the advantage matchup wise.

In order to get Hedo enough touches, you'll have to bench John Salmons. That will force Wes Matthews to defend Gerald Wallace which is a large advantage in New Orleans' favour.

If you don't bench John Salmons, Hedo won't receive enough touches and Horford will continue to have a matchup advantage at the four.

Or I could go with:

Howard
Monroe
Turkoglu/Salmons
Matthews/Williams/Fernandez
Davis

I'd first like to point out to voters that the Gorillas are now considering benching two of the team's starting five. And haven't yet addressed the problem of playing Hedo alongside Davis?

When my opponent is changing his regular season winning starting lineup I must be doing something right. Scott sends the message to his team that other than Howard's advantage he has match-ups all of the floor he's nervous about. And such moves rarely work out well. Think Dallas vs Golden State in 2007.

Specifically? Inserting Turkoglu into the starting lineup is a mistake. Neither Davis nor Hedo play well off the ball. In fact, it's difficult to overstate how Toronto struggled last season playing Turkoglu alongside Calderon to both mens' determent. Turkoglu may be the greater talent but Matthews was a better fit in the starting lineup, he's the far better defender, more efficient, and takes away fewer shots from Howard, Davis and Jamison.

Coach Scott has now also conceded the contest on the glass where Turkoglu (8.9 TR%) won't be able to keep Wallace off the boards or away from the basket.

And in an attempt to force an early mismatch Phoenix creates problems for itself later, because of their lack of a back up for Davis - either over-extending Turkoglu to keep him in the game with the second unit or play without either Davis or Hedo, wilt against backcourt pressure and struggle to get into their offense.

[Who]

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

The one thing I worry about is playing Baron + Salmons + Hedo together alongside Dwight Howard.

Hedo Turkoglu has to have the ball in his hands to create a matchup advantage versus Horford. If he has to fight for touches - and Hedo is very passive when it comes to this - with Baron and Salmons ... then the negatives of playing him at the four (defense / rebounding) will outweigh the positives and allow Horford to keep the advantage matchup wise.

In order to get Hedo enough touches, you'll have to bench John Salmons. That will force Wes Matthews to defend Gerald Wallace which is a large advantage in New Orleans' favour.

If you don't bench John Salmons, Hedo won't receive enough touches and Horford will continue to have a matchup advantage at the four.

Or I could go with:

Howard
Monroe
Turkoglu/Salmons
Matthews/Williams/Fernandez
Davis

Gerald Wallace would have a matchup advantage against Turkoglu + Eric Gordon against the two guards.

It would be a lot easier for Al Horford to supply help defense on Dwight Howard when covering Monroe. Dwight doesn't have the best of post games to begin with so that would limit him considerably. With Hedo also being grounded, that would make Phoenix hugely reliant on Baron Davis to create ... well just about everything.

Greg Monroe is a solid defensive matchup against Horford. I reckon he can neutralize Horford's go-to scoring. Horford should still be able to win the matchup with his overall contribution (help defense + rebounding -- can Monroe rebound with Horford? Questionable) ... but no longer a problem as a go-to scorer.

At the end of that, Phoenix will be struggling offensively.

The good news is that New Orleans is struggling offensively too ... but at this point the series is a dogfight.

[StartOrien]

How is Davis & Turkoglu's ability to play alongside eachother any different than Nelson & Turkoglu's, which was already displayed as a succesful combination alongside Dwight Howard.

WW you also really avoided IP's question,

How do you lineup with me having Turkoglu at the 4?

[Who]

And haven't yet addressed the problem of playing Hedo alongside Davis?

I am fine with Hedo Turkoglu playing alongside Baron + Dwight + two low usage players.

I think the combination becomes problematic when you add another high usage player to the mix (Salmons or Jamison).

[StartOrien]

It becomes a dog fight only if you forget about how this team has no response for Dwight Howard

Who in 12 head to head matchups has more than doubled Horford in points, rebounds, blocks and steals. You can ask me to stop posting this comparison, I promise I will not.

I've probably diverted more than I should from the main thing: No matter what, they have no response for Dwight Howard. Nor do they have anything coming close to approaching being able to.

I have been foolish in responding to too many questions without reminding people that I have Dwight Howard and N'awlins doesn't.

[Roy H.]

I think Phoenix is letting people define the argument too much, and is answering too much with "Yeah, but we have Dwight Howard")  Dwight Howard has been playing with 3 other all-stars in Orlando the last few seasons, and still hasn't won a title. 

There needs to be more of an argument selling Phoenix.  That argument can't be centered around creating a new starting lineup.  I think they'd be best off running their starting lineup out there, and saying that it's up to New Orleans to match up with you.

Dwight Howard demands a double team.  If you're not doubling him with Cousins in the game, Dwight in going for 30+ per night, much like he did the "real life" Atlanta Hawks.

Jamison will bring Horford outside on defense, meaning he can't help with Horford as much.  On the perimeter, Jamison is still a very effective player (and he's also a very good rebounder).

At the three, Wallace smothers Salmons, but Salmons at least should be able to stay on the perimeter a lot, drawing Wallace out and mitigating his rebounding advantage.

Eric Gordon is better than Matthews, but Matthews should at least slow him down.  I mean, Gordon is a good player, but he's not a superstar; he's still a 17 ppg scorer.  Think Ron Mercer with a three point shot.

Finally, at PG, Baron Davis trumps Jrue Holiday by a wide margin at this point (and I'm a big fan of Jrue).  

I mean, the questions Phoenix should be asking are "Who runs / initiates New Orleans' defense, when Davis is playing good defense on Holiday?"  There's no good answer to that.

Phoenix has the better constructed roster, and even though New Orleans can slow you down, they can't stop you.  At some point, either Howard will go off, or New Orleans will leave your shooters open.  Most likely, both.

New Orleans can throw all the stats out that it wants about defense, offensive efficiency, etc., but at the end of the day, they're asking Jrue Holiday -- an inexperienced PG who looks for his own shot -- to create for a bunch of guys who struggle creating for themselves.

[StartOrien]

I think Phoenix is letting people define the argument too much, and is answering too much with "Yeah, but we have Dwight Howard")  Dwight Howard has been playing with 3 other all-stars in Orlando the last few seasons, and still hasn't won a title. 

There needs to be more of an argument selling Phoenix.  That argument can't be centered around creating a new starting lineup.  I think they'd be best off running their starting lineup out there, and saying that it's up to New Orleans to match up with you.

Dwight Howard demands a double team.  If you're not doubling him with Cousins in the game, Dwight in going for 30+ per night, much like he did the "real life" Atlanta Hawks.

Jamison will bring Horford outside on defense, meaning he can't help with Horford as much.  On the perimeter, Jamison is still a very effective player (and he's also a very good rebounder).

At the three, Wallace smothers Salmons, but Salmons at least should be able to stay on the perimeter a lot, drawing Wallace out and mitigating his rebounding advantage.

Eric Gordon is better than Matthews, but Matthews should at least slow him down.  I mean, Gordon is a good player, but he's not a superstar; he's still a 17 ppg scorer.  Think Ron Mercer with a three point shot.

Finally, at PG, Baron Davis trumps Jrue Holiday by a wide margin at this point (and I'm a big fan of Jrue).  

I mean, the questions Phoenix should be asking are "Who runs / initiates New Orleans' defense, when Davis is playing good defense on Holiday?"  There's no good answer to that.

Phoenix has the better constructed roster, and even though New Orleans can slow you down, they can't stop you.  At some point, either Howard will go off, or New Orleans will leave your shooters open.  Most likely, both.

New Orleans can throw all the stats out that it wants about defense, offensive efficiency, etc., but at the end of the day, they're asking Jrue Holiday -- an inexperienced PG who looks for his own shot -- to create for a bunch of guys who struggle creating for themselves.

And that's why Roy's a better poster than me.

[Roy H.]

I think Phoenix is letting people define the argument too much, and is answering too much with "Yeah, but we have Dwight Howard")  Dwight Howard has been playing with 3 other all-stars in Orlando the last few seasons, and still hasn't won a title. 

There needs to be more of an argument selling Phoenix.  That argument can't be centered around creating a new starting lineup.  I think they'd be best off running their starting lineup out there, and saying that it's up to New Orleans to match up with you.

Dwight Howard demands a double team.  If you're not doubling him with Cousins in the game, Dwight in going for 30+ per night, much like he did the "real life" Atlanta Hawks.

Jamison will bring Horford outside on defense, meaning he can't help with Horford as much.  On the perimeter, Jamison is still a very effective player (and he's also a very good rebounder).

At the three, Wallace smothers Salmons, but Salmons at least should be able to stay on the perimeter a lot, drawing Wallace out and mitigating his rebounding advantage.

Eric Gordon is better than Matthews, but Matthews should at least slow him down.  I mean, Gordon is a good player, but he's not a superstar; he's still a 17 ppg scorer.  Think Ron Mercer with a three point shot.

Finally, at PG, Baron Davis trumps Jrue Holiday by a wide margin at this point (and I'm a big fan of Jrue).  

I mean, the questions Phoenix should be asking are "Who runs / initiates New Orleans' defense, when Davis is playing good defense on Holiday?"  There's no good answer to that.

Phoenix has the better constructed roster, and even though New Orleans can slow you down, they can't stop you.  At some point, either Howard will go off, or New Orleans will leave your shooters open.  Most likely, both.

New Orleans can throw all the stats out that it wants about defense, offensive efficiency, etc., but at the end of the day, they're asking Jrue Holiday -- an inexperienced PG who looks for his own shot -- to create for a bunch of guys who struggle creating for themselves.

And that's why Roy's a better poster than me.

Definitely not a better poster.  I just argue for a living, (and just got out of court, so my juices are flowing. ).

[Lucky17]

Houston:  Can either Dalembert or Diaw stop Duncan?

Not to sound cliche, but we don't plan to stop him, but contain him.

Duncan is in for a long and punishing series. Dalembert and Pachulia are going to enjoy playing physical basketball against him, and I'm not averse to having Gadzuric come in for some occasional hard fouls.

But I do plan to pack the paint. Duncan will see some immediate double teams, from either the PF or SF (whoever happens to be closer to the ball at the time). So long and active defenders like Diaw (0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks), Granger (1.5 steals, 0.8 blocks), Jerebko (1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks), and Hickson (0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks) are going to help Duncan's man and force him to pass out of the post, turn the ball over, or take contested shots.

If Denver can consistently hit their outside shots, then we'll be in for a long series. However, neither Westbrook (eFG of 36% on jumpers) nor Ariza (eFG of 41%) are consistently good from the outside. I'll have Afflalo key on Thornton; I think Mayo could also play good defense against Thornton.

Also, while it may be a small loss, the departure of Singleton means one less big body in Denver's rotation. In this series, I feel I have a significant advantage in my frontcourt rotation, Duncan notwithstanding.

[KCattheStripe]

How I voted

Phoenix- Bigs win, if you can't put someone in front of the best Center in the NBA then bad things will happen.
Utah- Too many weapons. I'll worry about Casspi at the 2 later.
Sacramento- Same overwhelming size advantage.
Denver- TD.