CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[nickagneta]

While I see Phoenix winning their series in a tough 7 games, I think this was the hardest of the 8 playoff series for me to call.

Why?

Because, first, I think Cousins is going to be a hell of a player. Second, I think Horford and Wallace will dominate Jamison, Hedo and Salmons on both ends of the court.

Where I think the series swings in Phoenix's eventual direction is in Baron Davis' experience and ability to exploit the Bucs PGs.

[Donoghus]

Question for Utah:

I agree in that the lack of depth at the 4/5 will, most likely, end up costing this Clips team a playoff run...

However, i'm still not sold that Casspi can play big minutes at the 2 for a good team.  Especially considering he did very little of it for a crap team.  In order for me to confidently vote you into the next round i need to know that your backcourt can withstand the Clips guard scoring.  I need to know that (as he did last year) you can withstand a J-Rich barrage of 30/40 point nights.

Also - do you expect Yao to be an effective help defender this year? i read a quote recently where Yao himself commented that he is in "very poor" physical shape right now.  Will he reagin that endurance and intimidate Marion and J-Rich as he once did?

Well, regarding Yao's health.  If people are voting me in as the #2 seed, the assumption there us that Yao is fully back to health.  Also, I mentioned in my presser that the plan early on was to watch Yao's minutes and work him back in during the regular season to regain his "game shape". All in preparation for the playoffs. I think by the time April/May rolls around, he'll be fine.  That gives him 5 months or so to get it going. On the defensive end, I see no reason why he can't bounce back close to where he was before.  Having Gasol alongside him will help matters. Also, with Robin Lopez, I have a guy I feel comfortable subbing in for Yao for long stretches.

Regarding the Clippers guard play, Richardson will go on his scoring binges.  He's certainly known for that.  However, if he drives to the basket he's going to encounter some formidable defense from my frontcourt.  They'll make him pay.  That leaves it with Richardson and Billups trying to beat us from the outside.  I don't think its nearly enough to compensate for what my team can do from the inside/out on the offensive end.  Richardson may get his points but its not going to be enough.   As we say in last year's playoffs, the teams with the formidable frontcourts were the ones who advanced.

Well i voted you in much lower in the seedings - not because i don't like your team, but because i'm not sure Yao will turn it on right away (as you mentioned) and i'm not sure about Casspi starting at the 2.

Just my honest opinion - i'll take your team in this round, but it has a LOT to do with LA's lack of depth at the 4/5.  Billups/J-Rich will "Get theirs" quite easily in this matchup, whereas i don't see Yao/Pau "getting theirs" quite as easily.  The KG/Big Ben combo offensively isn't great, but i think that they could certainly battle with your bigs on the defensive end.

If these games were to actually be played, i think this Clips team would give you just as many problems as any other team in the league.  But we know how fragile KG/Ben can be, and unfortunately LA did not address that in the later rounds.

I really don't necessarily think the Clippers guards are going to run rampant over this Jazz team by any means. I just know that Richardson is capable of going off for 30+ on a given night and I think that this Jazz team can withstand it.  I think Casspi is quite a capable defender and I have some bench players in Mbah A Moute & Johnson whose help defense won't make things any easier for these guards.  If we can get Billups and Richardson to settle into jumpers (which I can easily see happening) than I feel extremely good about our chances.  I don't see them shooting 50%+ from the outside. 

[StartOrien]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

So Faf, what lineup would you go with if I'm playing Hedo at the 4 and Howard at the 5?

I'm not New Orlean's GM so my answer isn't really relevant, I already asked Walker Wiggle that same question, I'm very interested to hear his answer.

But my point is that you say that he'd be forced to play a small lineup by you if you went small and then you said you'd respond by immediately going big again. I'm honestly puzzled by your response to Who's question.

Because I think when they go big, they don't have response for Turkoglu at the 4. And my normal lineup is much better than when they go small.

[indeedproceed]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

So Faf, what lineup would you go with if I'm playing Hedo at the 4 and Howard at the 5?

I'm not New Orlean's GM so my answer isn't really relevant, I already asked Walker Wiggle that same question, I'm very interested to hear his answer.

But my point is that you say that he'd be forced to play a small lineup by you if you went small and then you said you'd respond by immediately going big again. I'm honestly puzzled by your response to Who's question.

Because I think when they go big, they don't have response for Turkoglu at the 4. And my normal lineup is much better than when they go small.

Okay...correct me if I'm wrong, but what Faf is saying is when you go with Turkoglu @ the 4, they'll go small with Wallace @ the 4. How does Turkoglu do against the small lineup?

[Who]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

I was about to ask the same question.

What is to stop New Orleans from shifting Horford back to the four when Jamison re-enters the game?

[Fafnir]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

I was about to ask the same question.

What is to stop New Orleans from shifting Horford back to the four when Jamison re-enters the game?

Apparently they'll be playing musical substitutions, by then immediately pulling Jamison from what he just responded to me comment with.

[StartOrien]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

So Faf, what lineup would you go with if I'm playing Hedo at the 4 and Howard at the 5?

I'm not New Orlean's GM so my answer isn't really relevant, I already asked Walker Wiggle that same question, I'm very interested to hear his answer.

But my point is that you say that he'd be forced to play a small lineup by you if you went small and then you said you'd respond by immediately going big again. I'm honestly puzzled by your response to Who's question.

Because I think when they go big, they don't have response for Turkoglu at the 4. And my normal lineup is much better than when they go small.

Okay...correct me if I'm wrong, but what Faf is saying is when you go with Turkoglu @ the 4, they'll go small with Wallace @ the 4. How does Turkoglu do against the small lineup?

Against a smaller lineup, I think he could hold his own but it wouldn't be in the teams interest to have him do it.

If WW made a move to the bench to go small, we'd immediately bring Jamison back in @ the 4 and would slide either Turk or Salmons to the 3.

[StartOrien]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

I was about to ask the same question.

What is to stop New Orleans from shifting Horford back to the four when Jamison re-enters the game?

Apparently they'll be playing musical substitutions, by then immediately pulling Jamison from what he just responded to me comment with.

For the most part, while coming off a tad sarcastic, this is actually accurate. Though again, we do plan on giving Greg Monroe minutes at the 4 as well.

[Fafnir]

For the most part, while coming off a tad sarcastic, this is actually accurate. Though again, we do plan on giving Greg Monroe minutes at the 4 as well.

The sacrasm was meant, because I don't get how you can talk about going small with Hedo at the 4 to force Horford to the 5 but then say you'd go big again once Horford is at the 5.

Are you saying you'd no longer use Hedo at the 4 then?

[StartOrien]

For the most part, while coming off a tad sarcastic, this is actually accurate. Though again, we do plan on giving Greg Monroe minutes at the 4 as well.

The sacrasm was meant, because I don't get how you can talk about going small with Hedo at the 4 to force Horford to the 5 but then say you'd go big again once Horford is at the 5.

Are you saying you'd no longer use Hedo at the 4 then?

Exactly. On most occasions (the start of the game being an exception), when Turk's on the floor:

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

If they had 1 big in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 3.

Howard - Cousins/Horford
Jamison - Wallace
Turkoglu - Kleiza/Bell
Salmons - Gordon
Davis - Holliay

[StartOrien]

And again, Greg Monroe will also get some time @ the 4

[Who]

For the most part, while coming off a tad sarcastic, this is actually accurate. Though again, we do plan on giving Greg Monroe minutes at the 4 as well.

The sacrasm was meant, because I don't get how you can talk about going small with Hedo at the 4 to force Horford to the 5 but then say you'd go big again once Horford is at the 5.

Are you saying you'd no longer use Hedo at the 4 then?

Exactly. On most occasions (the start of the game being an exception), when Turk's on the floor:

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

If they had 1 big in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 3.

Howard - Cousins/Horford
Jamison - Wallace
Turkoglu - Kleiza/Bell
Salmons - Gordon
Davis - Holliay

The one thing I worry about is playing Baron + Salmons + Hedo together alongside Dwight Howard.

Hedo Turkoglu has to have the ball in his hands to create a matchup advantage versus Horford. If he has to fight for touches - and Hedo is very passive when it comes to this - with Baron and Salmons ... then the negatives of playing him at the four (defense / rebounding) will outweigh the positives and allow Horford to keep the advantage matchup wise.

[Fafnir]

For the most part, while coming off a tad sarcastic, this is actually accurate. Though again, we do plan on giving Greg Monroe minutes at the 4 as well.

The sacrasm was meant, because I don't get how you can talk about going small with Hedo at the 4 to force Horford to the 5 but then say you'd go big again once Horford is at the 5.

Are you saying you'd no longer use Hedo at the 4 then?

Exactly. On most occasions (the start of the game being an exception), when Turk's on the floor:

If they had 2 bigs in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 4.

Howard - Cousins
Turkoglu - Horford
Salmons - Wallace
Matthews/Fernandez - Gordon
Davis - Holliday

If they had 1 big in there we'd have Turkoglu play the 3.

Howard - Cousins/Horford
Jamison - Wallace
Turkoglu - Kleiza/Bell
Salmons - Gordon
Davis - Holliay

So you're just going small, because the second you go big in response to their small line up they'd go big again.

I think that hurts your team, and for all the hate Jamison gets you're also severely limiting either his minutes or Turks. Again I think that will hurt your team.

[StartOrien]

I guess we'll agree to disagree on this Faf. I think Jamison is severely underrated on this blog, but he doesn't matchup well against Horford/Cousins. Unfortunately, in this series his minutes have to be limited in favor of Turk & Monroe.

[The Walker Wiggle]

New Orleans how would you respond to lineups that featured Hedo at the 4?

When my opponent is changing his regular season winning starting lineup I must be doing something right. Scott sends the message to his team that other than Howard's advantage he has match-ups all of the floor he's nervous about. And such moves rarely work out well. Think Dallas vs Golden State in 2007.

Specifically? Inserting Turkoglu into the starting lineup is a mistake. Neither Davis nor Hedo play well off the ball. In fact, it's difficult to overstate how Toronto struggled last season playing Turkoglu alongside Calderon to both mens' determent. Turkoglu may be the greater talent but Matthews was a better fit in the starting lineup, he's the far better defender, more efficient, and takes away fewer shots from Howard, Davis and Jamison.

Coach Scott has now also conceded the contest on the glass where Turkoglu (8.9 TR%) won't be able to keep Wallace off the boards or away from the basket. And I'm not sure how the move creates any unaddressed match-ups other than:

Eric Gordon vs John Salmons (Advantage New Orleans) Salmons will challenge Gordon more on the offensive end than Matthews. But possibly to the determent of the Gorillas' offense. With three players who like to shoot and create off the dribble - Davis, Hedo and Salmons - Howard gets fewer touches. (There is no better finisher, but he relies heavily on his teammates to keep him involved.) and ball movement bogs down.

Gordon has no problem guarding Salmons.



Defensively New Orleans continues to match up like so:
Hedo Turkoglu/Gerald Wallace
Antawn Jamison/Al Horford

Phoenix is welcome to switch on the other end.

And in an attempt to force an early mismatch Phoenix creates problems for itself later, because of their lack of a back up for Davis - either over-extending Turkoglu to keep him in the game with the second unit or play without either Davis or Hedo, wilt against backcourt pressure and struggle to get into their offense.

I do like the 4-5 pick and roll between Hedo and Howard. Although I'd point out that Wallace and Horford are two of the best switching forwards in the game.