CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[StartOrien]

Here's some of the weaknesses Draft Express has listed for Demarcus Cousins:

Activity level - Commitment to playing defense - Defensive fundamentals - Gambles defensively - Lateral quickness - Body language - Doesn't always know limitations - Doesn't always play hard - Focus - High bust potential? - Intelligence - Maturity - Mental toughness - Off-court red flags? - Questionable intangibles

He couldn't play 10 minutes against Dwight Howard.

[Fafnir]

The rebounding is an overstated issue.

Again in 12 head-head contests Howard averages 16.4 rebounds and Horford averages 7.9. Turkoglu will often have his matchup on the perimter. There's a strong possibility that they could outrebound this lineup, but the difference isn't nearly as big as stated.

Again, you're trying to make this all about Horford versus Howard. But Horford will be playing the 4 for much of the series with other players on Howard!

Gerald Wallace and Horford will rack up a lot more rebounds than their counterparts at the 3/4 positions. Even more so with Hedo getting 10-20 minutes there.

Let's turn the tables. Why would I not make this about Horford against Howard? Horford is, in my opinion, the obvious matchup for Howard. Who else would be going up against him?

I re-stated the matchup comparisons because in contests against each other Howard has outrebounded Horford by EIGHT rebounds a game. In my opinion Wallace/Cousins instead of Josh Smith and Turkoglu instead of Rashard Lewis (their real life counterparts) doesn't make up for all of those eight rebounds.

The problem with your approach is that your counterpart has stated that he expects Cousins to play 28 MPG against Howard, and then McDyess for more minutes against Howard.

So instead of addressing that you're pounding a matchup that might not exist for you to exploit.

I'm only pounding on Horford because I think he's the most worthy adversary. Horford is the best equipped to take on Howard and Dwight has humiliated Horford consistenly.

I use this for emphasis. If these numbers are what Howard can do against Horford, the teams best post defender, imagine what he's going to do against a mentally fragile rookie who's defensive skills are often listed as 'lazy' and an 86 year old, undersized (at the center position), Antonio McDeyss.

If you think that's the best argument for you team, I guess I understand.

I think you're failing to address any of the other points brought up by the Buc's excellent post. I also think playing Hedo so many minutes at the 4 is a mistake. A big enough one that I'm seriously rethinking how this series will play out.

[StartOrien]

I guess I don't understand why this doesn't seem acceptable. I know it's a bit leaning on a superstar, but it's also why I drafted this way.

Howard's supremacy against Horford allows me to play Hedo at the 4, and I don't think Nawlins has a counter to this.

They're only counter is to play smaller by moving Wallace to the 4, which eliminates their greatest asset (height). Their bench also doesn't feature a real backup at the 3, which was IMO was a huge oversight based on the versatility of Wallace.  

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

Those are OK lineups, but my regular starting lineup is much, much better.

I'm also not completely ignoring height, as I did recognize that Greg Monroe, who led all 1st round picks in rebound %, could be recieving a good amount of minutes at the PF as well.

[jgod213]

Question for Utah:

I agree in that the lack of depth at the 4/5 will, most likely, end up costing this Clips team a playoff run...

However, i'm still not sold that Casspi can play big minutes at the 2 for a good team.  Especially considering he did very little of it for a crap team.  In order for me to confidently vote you into the next round i need to know that your backcourt can withstand the Clips guard scoring.  I need to know that (as he did last year) you can withstand a J-Rich barrage of 30/40 point nights.

Also - do you expect Yao to be an effective help defender this year? i read a quote recently where Yao himself commented that he is in "very poor" physical shape right now.  Will he reagin that endurance and intimidate Marion and J-Rich as he once did?

[Fafnir]

I guess I don't understand why this doesn't seem acceptable. I know it's a bit leaning on a superstar, but it's also why I drafted this way.

Because you have hardly mentioned the rest of your team in the end. Nor have you really addressed other matchups very much.

Its not unacceptable by the way, Its just not convincing me.

[StartOrien]

I guess I don't understand why this doesn't seem acceptable. I know it's a bit leaning on a superstar, but it's also why I drafted this way.

Howard's supremacy against Horford allows me to play Hedo at the 4, and I don't think Nawlins has a counter to this.

They're only counter is to play smaller by moving Wallace to the 4, which eliminates their greatest asset (height). Their bench also doesn't feature a real backup at the 3, which was IMO was a huge oversight based on the versatility of Wallace.  

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

Those are OK lineups, but my regular starting lineup is much, much better.

I'm also not completely ignoring height, as I did recognize that Greg Monroe, who led all 1st round picks in rebound %, could be recieving a good amount of minutes at the PF as well.

Again, this all based off my belief that there's no way that Horford & Cousins could matchup against Howard & Turkoglu.

I don't discuss the other matchups because I don't think its all that worth it. If Horford & Cousins can't play on the court at the same time I don't think this team has a shot at winning more than one game in a 7 game series.

And I don't believe the combo of the two has any chance at stopping a Howard & Turkoglu pick and roll. Wallace could help a little, but he'd get too caught up in it making for easy baskets for his matchup (probably Salmons)

[Fafnir]

I don't discuss the other matchups because I don't think its all that worth it.

Okay, I guess that's all I need to know.

[Who]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

[Donoghus]

Question for Utah:

I agree in that the lack of depth at the 4/5 will, most likely, end up costing this Clips team a playoff run...

However, i'm still not sold that Casspi can play big minutes at the 2 for a good team.  Especially considering he did very little of it for a crap team.  In order for me to confidently vote you into the next round i need to know that your backcourt can withstand the Clips guard scoring.  I need to know that (as he did last year) you can withstand a J-Rich barrage of 30/40 point nights.

Also - do you expect Yao to be an effective help defender this year? i read a quote recently where Yao himself commented that he is in "very poor" physical shape right now.  Will he reagin that endurance and intimidate Marion and J-Rich as he once did?

Well, regarding Yao's health.  If people are voting me in as the #2 seed, the assumption there us that Yao is fully back to health.  Also, I mentioned in my presser that the plan early on was to watch Yao's minutes and work him back in during the regular season to regain his "game shape". All in preparation for the playoffs. I think by the time April/May rolls around, he'll be fine.  That gives him 5 months or so to get it going. On the defensive end, I see no reason why he can't bounce back close to where he was before.  Having Gasol alongside him will help matters. Also, with Robin Lopez, I have a guy I feel comfortable subbing in for Yao for long stretches.

Regarding the Clippers guard play, Richardson will go on his scoring binges.  He's certainly known for that.  However, if he drives to the basket he's going to encounter some formidable defense from my frontcourt.  They'll make him pay.  That leaves it with Richardson and Billups trying to beat us from the outside.  I don't think its nearly enough to compensate for what my team can do from the inside/out on the offensive end.  Richardson may get his points but its not going to be enough.   As we say in last year's playoffs, the teams with the formidable frontcourts were the ones who advanced.

[CB Draft Voting]

Please use the following format for your ballot.

*Your Name Here*
Phoenix/New Orleans
Utah/LA Clippers
Sacramento/LA Lakers
Houston/Denver

Please use the team names I have typed above.

If you use a shortened name like "Sac" instead of Sacramento" I have to manually input your ballot. I'm using vlookup's based on the string "Sacramento".

Thanks!

[StartOrien]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Turks too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

[Fafnir]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

[jgod213]

Question for Utah:

I agree in that the lack of depth at the 4/5 will, most likely, end up costing this Clips team a playoff run...

However, i'm still not sold that Casspi can play big minutes at the 2 for a good team.  Especially considering he did very little of it for a crap team.  In order for me to confidently vote you into the next round i need to know that your backcourt can withstand the Clips guard scoring.  I need to know that (as he did last year) you can withstand a J-Rich barrage of 30/40 point nights.

Also - do you expect Yao to be an effective help defender this year? i read a quote recently where Yao himself commented that he is in "very poor" physical shape right now.  Will he reagin that endurance and intimidate Marion and J-Rich as he once did?

Well, regarding Yao's health.  If people are voting me in as the #2 seed, the assumption there us that Yao is fully back to health.  Also, I mentioned in my presser that the plan early on was to watch Yao's minutes and work him back in during the regular season to regain his "game shape". All in preparation for the playoffs. I think by the time April/May rolls around, he'll be fine.  That gives him 5 months or so to get it going. On the defensive end, I see no reason why he can't bounce back close to where he was before.  Having Gasol alongside him will help matters. Also, with Robin Lopez, I have a guy I feel comfortable subbing in for Yao for long stretches.

Regarding the Clippers guard play, Richardson will go on his scoring binges.  He's certainly known for that.  However, if he drives to the basket he's going to encounter some formidable defense from my frontcourt.  They'll make him pay.  That leaves it with Richardson and Billups trying to beat us from the outside.  I don't think its nearly enough to compensate for what my team can do from the inside/out on the offensive end.  Richardson may get his points but its not going to be enough.   As we say in last year's playoffs, the teams with the formidable frontcourts were the ones who advanced.

Well i voted you in much lower in the seedings - not because i don't like your team, but because i'm not sure Yao will turn it on right away (as you mentioned) and i'm not sure about Casspi starting at the 2.

Just my honest opinion - i'll take your team in this round, but it has a LOT to do with LA's lack of depth at the 4/5.  Billups/J-Rich will "Get theirs" quite easily in this matchup, whereas i don't see Yao/Pau "getting theirs" quite as easily.  The KG/Big Ben combo offensively isn't great, but i think that they could certainly battle with your bigs on the defensive end.

If these games were to actually be played, i think this Clips team would give you just as many problems as any other team in the league.  But we know how fragile KG/Ben can be, and unfortunately LA did not address that in the later rounds.

[StartOrien]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

So Faf, what lineup would you go with if I'm playing Hedo at the 4 and Howard at the 5?

[Fafnir]

They'd have to go w/ either:

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Linas Kleiza, Wallace, Horford/Cousins/McDeyss

or

Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Raja Bell, Wallace, one of the bigs.

What lineup(s) would you play against those two lineups?

In both cases, probably:

Baron Davis, John Salmons, Hedo Turkoglu, Antawn Jamison, Dwight Howard. Howards too big for Bell, and too quick for Kleiza

But wasn't New Orleans playing those lineups predicated on Hedo playing the 4?

By having Jamison in there whether or not you call Hedo or Jamison the 4 it removes the pressure for New Orleans to go small.

So Faf, what lineup would you go with if I'm playing Hedo at the 4 and Howard at the 5?

I'm not New Orlean's GM so my answer isn't really relevant, I already asked Walker Wiggle that same question, I'm very interested to hear his answer.

But my point is that you say that he'd be forced to play a small lineup by you if you went small and then you said you'd respond by immediately going big again. I'm honestly puzzled by your response to Who's question.