CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[Who]

Sacramento vs LAL

I think the Lakers have an advantage at their starting two guard position while Sacramento have an advantage at their starting PF position and backup big man slots.

I think the point guard battle is fairly even between Rose and S.Curry. Rose being the more prolific scorer and better defender while Curry supplies more efficiency, shooting and playmaking.

The backup wings -- Q vs RJ and Garcia/Lee -- are fairly even. The Kings would have an advantage whenever Tracy McGrady plays but I'm assuming by the playoffs that the Lakers realize he's finished and have him glued to their bench.

The backup guards, Augustin vs Teague, another neutral battle. Augustin the superior shooter vs Teague the superior slasher. If Augustin gets back to where he was as a rookie, I'd give him a slight advantage. Then again, if Teague improves, he may claim it. For now, without knowing or truly expecting either outcome, I'm going to call it even.

The Lewis vs Prince matchup. Prince making slightly more in the non-scoring departments while Lewis provides a bit more scoring and more offensive efficiency. Largely equal, small advantage Sacramento.

LA Lakers

If I am LA, I am starting Bargnani and switching Tyson Chandler onto Boozer while giving Bargnani the Dampier assignment. Tyson Chandler has done a good job on Boozer several times in the past and Dampier is no problem for Bargs defensively.

That would open up the Lakers pick and roll game. An interior finisher in Tyson and a pick and pop shooter + floor spacer in Bargnani. That would help open things up for Steph Curry and Brandon Roy even further. Q-Rich and Tayshaun Prince supply solid perimeter shooting from the other wing spot.

The question then becomes, does Bargnani's added offensive punch allow LA to outplay Sacramento while these lineups are in the game? Or does his horribly inadequate team defense + very weak rebounding keep things even?

Anyways, then Sacramento plugs in Zach Randolph forcing Bargnani to guard a credible offensive threat. At that point, Bargnani gets cooked defensively in one-on-one + team defense situations + he gets out-rebounded badly (very badly). Sacramento also see a drop in their team defense and become increasingly vulnerable in transition and in the pick and roll.

Which brings me to another question, does Tyson Chandler's defense keep LA in the game at this point? With both teams scoring freely and often. Or does Sacramento's rebounding pound LA into submission?

Either way, it's all over whenever Tyson sits down because Sacramento will destroy their three (Beasley, Bargnani, Al Harrington) big men. The lack of an adequate defensive + rebounding big man to give Tyson a breather ends the Lakers postseason hopes.

Conclusion

Sacramento move on. LA steal a game when their offense is running high.

4-1 Kings win

How our Rose and Curry equal?


One has been leading his team to the playoffs.

One put up numbers in Nellie ball.  (an easy thing to do)


Curry has a lot to do in this league to prove he is equal to Rose because Rose has set a high bar to equal. 

Derrick Rose plays for a more talented team with players like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon + John Salmons + Brad Miller the year before that.

Steph Curry plays on a dysfunctional franchise that has a mis-shaped roster and suffered huge injury problems last season.

Derrick Rose scored 20ppg last season but he did so on a TS% of 53% which fell to 49.7% in the playoffs. Below average. Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer + rebounder and is a good-to-very good defender.

Steph Curry, on the other hand, is one of the best jump shooters in the league and had a TS% of 56.8% last season. He is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA. His defense also looked considerably worse than it is because of the team that he played on (average defender / rebounder on a real team).

[wdleehi]

Sacramento vs LAL

I think the Lakers have an advantage at their starting two guard position while Sacramento have an advantage at their starting PF position and backup big man slots.

I think the point guard battle is fairly even between Rose and S.Curry. Rose being the more prolific scorer and better defender while Curry supplies more efficiency, shooting and playmaking.

The backup wings -- Q vs RJ and Garcia/Lee -- are fairly even. The Kings would have an advantage whenever Tracy McGrady plays but I'm assuming by the playoffs that the Lakers realize he's finished and have him glued to their bench.

The backup guards, Augustin vs Teague, another neutral battle. Augustin the superior shooter vs Teague the superior slasher. If Augustin gets back to where he was as a rookie, I'd give him a slight advantage. Then again, if Teague improves, he may claim it. For now, without knowing or truly expecting either outcome, I'm going to call it even.

The Lewis vs Prince matchup. Prince making slightly more in the non-scoring departments while Lewis provides a bit more scoring and more offensive efficiency. Largely equal, small advantage Sacramento.

LA Lakers

If I am LA, I am starting Bargnani and switching Tyson Chandler onto Boozer while giving Bargnani the Dampier assignment. Tyson Chandler has done a good job on Boozer several times in the past and Dampier is no problem for Bargs defensively.

That would open up the Lakers pick and roll game. An interior finisher in Tyson and a pick and pop shooter + floor spacer in Bargnani. That would help open things up for Steph Curry and Brandon Roy even further. Q-Rich and Tayshaun Prince supply solid perimeter shooting from the other wing spot.

The question then becomes, does Bargnani's added offensive punch allow LA to outplay Sacramento while these lineups are in the game? Or does his horribly inadequate team defense + very weak rebounding keep things even?

Anyways, then Sacramento plugs in Zach Randolph forcing Bargnani to guard a credible offensive threat. At that point, Bargnani gets cooked defensively in one-on-one + team defense situations + he gets out-rebounded badly (very badly). Sacramento also see a drop in their team defense and become increasingly vulnerable in transition and in the pick and roll.

Which brings me to another question, does Tyson Chandler's defense keep LA in the game at this point? With both teams scoring freely and often. Or does Sacramento's rebounding pound LA into submission?

Either way, it's all over whenever Tyson sits down because Sacramento will destroy their three (Beasley, Bargnani, Al Harrington) big men. The lack of an adequate defensive + rebounding big man to give Tyson a breather ends the Lakers postseason hopes.

Conclusion

Sacramento move on. LA steal a game when their offense is running high.

4-1 Kings win

How our Rose and Curry equal?


One has been leading his team to the playoffs.

One put up numbers in Nellie ball.  (an easy thing to do)


Curry has a lot to do in this league to prove he is equal to Rose because Rose has set a high bar to equal. 

Derrick Rose plays for a more talented team with players like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon + John Salmons + Brad Miller the year before that.

Steph Curry plays on a dysfunctional franchise that has a mis-shaped roster and suffered huge injury problems last season.

Derrick Rose scored 20ppg last season but he did so on a TS% of 53% which fell to 49.7% in the playoffs. Below average. Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer + rebounder and is a good-to-very good defender.

Steph Curry, on the other hand, is one of the best jump shooters in the league and had a TS% of 56.8% last season. He is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA. His defense also looked considerably worse than it is because of the team that he played on (average defender / rebounder on a real team).

Rose: Lead team to playoffs. 

Curry: Played on a lotto team and put up stats where a lot of players have thrown up big stats.


Give me the guy the leads his team to the playoffs every time. 

Rose has proven himself to be a leader that takes his team to the  playoffs.  Curry has not. 

[Roy H.]

Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer . . .

Steph Curry . . .  is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA.

Just to be clear, Rose and Curry averaged the exact same number of assists per minute last year (despite Curry's significantly faster paced offense), and Rose had a significantly higher assist percentage.  Curry had more turnovers.

Curry is a better shooter (although it looks like Rose has made huge strides there this summer), but Rose is a better passer.  Since they're both the same age, I wouldn't expect one to develop significantly faster than the other.

[StartOrien]

Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer . . .

Steph Curry . . .  is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA.

Just to be clear, Rose and Curry averaged the exact same number of assists per minute last year (despite Curry's significantly faster paced offense), and Rose had a significantly higher assist percentage.  Curry had more turnovers.

Curry is a better shooter (although it looks like Rose has made huge strides there this summer), but Rose is a better passer.  Since they're both the same age, I wouldn't expect one to develop significantly faster than the other.

I think Rose is much better than Curry. That being said, I thought Rose's shot looked pretty poor in FIBA competition. It looked unnatural, and he seemed very unsure of himself when shooting.

I don't have the stats to back that up, just an observation.

[Who]

Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer . . .

Steph Curry . . .  is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA.

Just to be clear, Rose and Curry averaged the exact same number of assists per minute last year (despite Curry's significantly faster paced offense), and Rose had a significantly higher assist percentage.  Curry had more turnovers.

Curry is a better shooter (although it looks like Rose has made huge strides there this summer), but Rose is a better passer.  Since they're both the same age, I wouldn't expect one to develop significantly faster than the other.

Steph Curry is only scratching the surface of who he is as a passer / playmaker.

As his confidence continues to grow, so too will his assist numbers.

------------------------------------------

If you check S.Curry's splits you'll see that his assist numbers climbed considerably over the course of the season.

They would have been even better if he didn't have to play with a ball-hog like Monta Ellis.

I though S.Curry was a solid 7-8 assist guy by the end of last season and I think he'll become a 10+ assist guy by his third or fourth year.

[Lucky17]

Rose is also a fairly mediocre passer . . .

Steph Curry . . .  is also one of the most talented young playmakers / passers in the NBA.

Just to be clear, Rose and Curry averaged the exact same number of assists per minute last year (despite Curry's significantly faster paced offense), and Rose had a significantly higher assist percentage.  Curry had more turnovers.

Curry is a better shooter (although it looks like Rose has made huge strides there this summer), but Rose is a better passer.  Since they're both the same age, I wouldn't expect one to develop significantly faster than the other.

I think Rose is much better than Curry. That being said, I thought Rose's shot looked pretty poor in FIBA competition. It looked unnatural, and he seemed very unsure of himself when shooting.

I don't have the stats to back that up, just an observation.

Is it just me, or does that FIBA ball look like it's the size of a women's basketball?

[indeedproceed]

You think Steph Curry trumps Rose, when Curry was putting up lesser numbers on a team that ranked #1 in pace?  (i.e., stat inflation, folks.)  I like Curry, but he's become wildly overrated by some.  He's a decent distributing, great shooting PG who has struggled in running an offense and who played very little defense last year.  I know we all root for the underdog, but Rose would kill him. 

As for Garcia/Lee, these are role players matched up against LA's best player, so I wouldn't expect them to come out ahead.  What they can do, however, is slow Roy down.  Both Lee and Garcia are very good defensive players who will make Roy work for his points.  Additionally, Garcia has the size to post Roy up on the offensive end, which will hopefully tire out Roy.

I think Roy will probably be LA's leading scorer on a nightly basis, and I'd expect him right around his regular season averages for production.  However, I think Curry will be limited somewhat.

I never said Stephen Curry was better than Derrick Rose.

I said the combo to Curry/Roy is head and shoulders above the combo of Rose/Garcia, which is true.

Also, Rose is on his way to becoming one of the better PG defenders in the NBA.

Where are you getting this?

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I suspect my esteemed colleague in Denver is busy these days.

Anyone care to pick up his standard and wave it for him?

The matchup:

PG - Russell Westbrook / Steve Blake / Daniel Gibson
SG - Marcus Thornton / Ronnie Brewer / [Childress]
SF - Trevor Ariza / Josh Childress
PF - Taj Gibson / Darrell Arthur
C - Tim Duncan / Darko Milicic / Aaron Gray

vs.

PG: Tony Parker, Ramon Sessions
SG: Arron Afflalo, O.J. Mayo
SF: Danny Granger, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Trenton Hassell
PF: Boris Diaw, J.J. Hickson, [Jerebko]
C:  Sam Dalembert, Zaza Pachulia, Dan Gadzuric

My esteemed colleague in Houston is correct (9-5 job, teaching 2 classes at night & planning a wedding at the end of the year).

How ironic too that Lucky17 and I (co-gms last year) would face off in the 1st round. It's no accident that our teams are similarly constructed. Great minds and all that....

I"ll keep this short for the reasons above and b/c of my respect for L17. TP my friend.



Why (IMO) Denver wins this series:
----------------------------------

1. Tim Duncan - still can't count out the big fella and I just dont think anyone on HOU can defend him in a playoff series.


2. Defense on Granger - Lucky rightfully points out that Granger is HOU's main offensive weapon, but unlike HOU's lack of matchup vs. our #1 guy, we can counter with one of the best wing defenders in the game in Trevor Ariza. For this matchup we'll also go at him with Josh Childress, but mostly Ariza.


3. Backcourt defense - I'm high on OJ Mayo as an offensive threat and think TParker will return to form this year, but they will be facing 2 of the better defensive guards in Westbrook & Ronnie Brewer (who will start vs. Mayo; letting Thronton come off the bench in a Manu-like role).


4. Westbrook - I think I'm higher on Westbrook than most, but lost in Durant's emergence is the fact that WB is clearly developing into a 1A talent alongside Durant in OKC. Players that step their game up (like WB did) in the playoffs show me they're ready to make a leap. It's not dissimilar to Parker's emergence in his 2nd year (and the Spurs' finals run).


5. HOU defense - Outside of the hot/cold Dalembert and maybe Afflalo there are few above-average defenders on HOU. The criticism of DEN has been a potential lack of scoring, but that is not amplified at all vs. HOU, and may be helped vs. guys like Diaw and  Mayo who are uncommited on the defensive end.



Why DEN might lose:
--------------------
1. Haters are always gonna hate  

2. If Duncan gets hurt HOU wins going away.

3. If JVG, my pick for coach who Lucky of course stole, gets HOU to play a brand of defense they've not played individually before.



Vote Denver  

[Donoghus]

Wow.  I forgot that DEN/HOU was a little "brother v. brother".

Funny how things break.

[Roy H.]

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

If that is Dwyer's argument, he's wrong.  A Bulls fan complains about Rondo's defense?  Well, a lot of Celtics fans complain about Rondo's defense.  Why?  Because it's impossible for any point guard to keep his man in front of him 100% of the time.  

Rose held opposing point guards to 84% of their normal production last year, with a PER of 14.9.  That's pretty darn good (and incidentally, both numbers are better than Rondo's).  For the record, I'm not the only one arguing it, either:

Rose ... is a good-to-very good defender.

[indeedproceed]

PG: Russell Westbrook, Steve Blake, Daniel Gibson
SG: Marcus Thornton, Ronnie Brewer
SF: Tervor Ariza, Josh Childress
PF: Taj Gibson, James Singleton, Darrell Arthur
C:  Tim Duncan, Darko Milicic, Aaron Gray


PG: Tony Parker, Ramon Sessions
SG: Arron Afflalo, O.J. Mayo
SF: Danny Granger, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Trenton Hassell
PF: Boris Diaw, J.J. Hickson, [Jerebko]
C:  Sam Dalembert, Zaza Pachulia, Dan Gadzuric

Okay. Look at how close these two teams are. It is ridiculous.

HOU Best Player: Danny Granger Den Counter: Tervor Ariza
-Ariza is a good defender, but not an elite one. He's got the length and ability to defend Granger, without letting Granger drop 40 on him. Ariza has proven himself to be a somewhat limited player offensively though.

Den Best Player: Tim Duncan HOU counter: Sam Dalembert
-Dalembert is a good defender, but not an elite one. He's got the length and ability to defend Duncan, witouth letting Duncan drop 30 on him. Dalembert has proven himself to be a limited player offensively though.

Advantage: Denver.

Point guard: Russell Westbrook V Tony Parker
-2 fast PG's, Westbrook has a more well-rounded game at this point, while Parker is a better offensive player.

Backup PG: Ramon Sessions, Steve Blake
Blake and Sessions are both pass first PG's. Sessions can get into the lane, Blake can shoot a 3.

SG's Marcus Thorton/Ronnie Brewer V Arron Afflalo/OJ Mayo
-1 offensive guard, one defensive guard that is offensively limited.

PF: Taj Gibson/Darrell Arthur V Boris Diaw/JJ Hickson
-Gibson over Diaw, Hickson (way) over Arthur, but everyone is pretty close here too.

I guess they're legitimately even in my mind. I'd pick the one with Tim Duncan personally, because I think he's a galvanizing force that is capable of making his teams better on offense and defense while Danny Granger seems to just be one of the best players in the NBA at putting a ball through a hoop.

[indeedproceed]

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

If that is Dwyer's argument, he's wrong.  A Bulls fan complains about Rondo's defense?  Well, a lot of Celtics fans complain about Rondo's defense.  Why?  Because it's impossible for any point guard to keep his man in front of him 100% of the time. 

Rose held opposing point guards to 84% of their normal production last year, with a PER of 14.9.  That's pretty darn good (and incidentally, both numbers are better than Rondo's).  For the record, I'm not the only one arguing it, either:

Rose ... is a good-to-very good defender.

Yeah but neither you or Who is being paid to write what you think about basketball. I'd defer to Dwyer here about his own guy.

[indeedproceed]

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

If that is Dwyer's argument, he's wrong.  A Bulls fan complains about Rondo's defense?  Well, a lot of Celtics fans complain about Rondo's defense.  Why?  Because it's impossible for any point guard to keep his man in front of him 100% of the time. 

Rose held opposing point guards to 84% of their normal production last year, with a PER of 14.9.  That's pretty darn good (and incidentally, both numbers are better than Rondo's).  For the record, I'm not the only one arguing it, either:

Rose ... is a good-to-very good defender.

Yeah but neither you or Who is being paid to write what you think about basketball. I'd defer to Dwyer here about his own guy.

EDit: And I'm not discounting your basketball knowledge here or Who's, I should say that. Just Dwyer is paid to write about a sport, he watches more game than anyone else on this board (doing game recaps of nearly every game on a daily basis), and Chicago is his favorite team, so you know he's going to pay serious attention.

If he says Derrick Rose plays bad defense, I believe him..or at least I doubt Rose is on his way to becoming on of the best PG defenders.

[Roy H.]

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

If that is Dwyer's argument, he's wrong.  A Bulls fan complains about Rondo's defense?  Well, a lot of Celtics fans complain about Rondo's defense.  Why?  Because it's impossible for any point guard to keep his man in front of him 100% of the time.  

Rose held opposing point guards to 84% of their normal production last year, with a PER of 14.9.  That's pretty darn good (and incidentally, both numbers are better than Rondo's).  For the record, I'm not the only one arguing it, either:

Rose ... is a good-to-very good defender.

Yeah but neither you or Who is being paid to write what you think about basketball. I'd defer to Dwyer here about his own guy.

Lots of guys get paid to write about basketball, and many of them conflict in their assessments.  They can't all be right, can they?  I mean, Bill Simmons gives opinions about Celtics players all the time; do you take his word as the gospel?

Defensive metrics say that Rose is a good defender.  With my own eyes, I think he's a good defender.  And Who thinks he's a good defender.  I'm not going to sit here and justify something I know to be true, just because you like Kelly Dwyer's blog. 

[indeedproceed]

5. Derrick Rose(notes), Chicago Bulls (last year: 11th)

I take in quite a bit of noise for Bulls fans for pointing out Rose's bad defense, his inability to consistently get to the line and his so-so passing. But I also saw him hit a 3-pointer a few days ago -- it had arc, rotation, follow-through; the whole schmear -- and I can't help but bump the guy up. Especially with a screening-and-finishing partner in Carlos Boozer(notes) waltzing into town.

Kelly Dwyer is a Bulls fan, and a guy who has a pretty rosy outlook for those players, he put Derrick Rose as the 5th best overall PG in the league..and even he thought Derrick Rose can play some bad defense.

If that is Dwyer's argument, he's wrong.  A Bulls fan complains about Rondo's defense?  Well, a lot of Celtics fans complain about Rondo's defense.  Why?  Because it's impossible for any point guard to keep his man in front of him 100% of the time. 

Rose held opposing point guards to 84% of their normal production last year, with a PER of 14.9.  That's pretty darn good (and incidentally, both numbers are better than Rondo's).  For the record, I'm not the only one arguing it, either:

Rose ... is a good-to-very good defender.

Yeah but neither you or Who is being paid to write what you think about basketball. I'd defer to Dwyer here about his own guy.

Lots of guys get paid to write about basketball, and many of them conflict in their assessments.  I mean, Bill Simmons gives opinions about Celtics players all the time; do you take his word as the gospel?

Bill Simmons and Kelly Dwyer are different animals. Dwyer only writes about basketball, and for the most part sticks to analysis. Simmons thinks he's supposed to be 'the fans voice' on all things sport.

Just different types of professionals.