CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[Roy H.]

Phoenix
LA
LA
Houston

I like the Bucs but Howard is all over Cousins.  LA vs. Sacto is close, but I have the Lakers edging them out.  Houston and Denver is close too, I had them 2nd and 3rd respectively.  Duncan might pull it off, but he'll need a lot of help from Westbrook.

For the sake of my own curiosity only, what is it that you liked about the Lakers over the Kings?  I like their backcourt, but I'm 100% unconvinced by the Lakers up front.

I think the wildcard will be Beasley.  If he can play efficiently I think he's the perfect compliment to Roy and Curry.  He'll give them that 3rd option advantage and allow Prince to be a huge 4th option advantage over Garcia.  Of course, Beasley can just as easily lose the series for them.  You have a slight advantage in rebounding and down low presence with Boozer, but I'm not sure it's enough.  I'll say it again, this series is definitely close.

That's a big jump considering how he rolled up in the playoffs this past season.

Versus the Celtics.

Rolled over and died is rolled over and died.  

So then you also consider Rashard Lewis a non-factor for the Kings?

He has played well in the playoffs.  He has a track record.  He had a bad series.  


Beasley has not track record in the playoffs.

Yeah, for perspective, Rashard's playoff averages are 17/6/2 with a .508 eFG% in 64 games.  Beasley is 11/7/1, shooting a .427 eFG% in 12 games.  Rashard has also played in the Finals, whereas Beasley hasn't made it past the first round.

However, I do think some people are marking Rashard down for a bad playoff series.  Almost nobody is counting him in as a major factor on my team, and I think that is misguided.

[The Walker Wiggle]

It is just to soon for your team.  Your PG and C have to develop first before they could get past a team with Howard.

[StartOrien]

It is just to soon for your team.  Your PG and C have to develop first before they could get past a team with Howard.

You did a great job

[Who]

Undecided on that Houston vs Denver series ...

Leaning towards Denver because I rate Duncan as the best player in the series and Westbrook is either the second or third best player. Also the better defensive team.

In such a close contest, with no real separation, I'll go with those characteristics.

Western Conference Playoffs

• Phoenix vs Sacramento -- Suns win in six hard fought games
• Utah vs LA Clippers -- Jazz confidently brush LAC aside with an explosive showing from Billups/J-Rich stealing a game.
• Sacramento vs LA Lakers -- The Lakers lack of interior defense and rebounding sinks their chances.
• Houston vs Denver -- Nuggets in seven

[StartOrien]

How explosive is that Utah-Sacramento matchup going to be?

[Roy H.]

How explosive is that Utah-Sacramento matchup going to be?

I think the deck is definitely stacked against me with voters in that series, if we both go through.  Among other reasons, Fafnir and Who are both big Utah fans.

Let me say, preemptively, that Gasol is a great player, and even a hobbled Yao is pretty darn good.  However, Jose Calderon is absolutely cooked, and Derrick Rose would eat him for lunch.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/26/1793552/raptors-stuck-with-calderon.html
 
http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/8/16/1625296/what-happened-to-jose-calderon#storyjump

How bad is Calderon's defense?  He allowed opposing point guards -- many of them bench players -- to score / produce 26.2% more than their averages.  That was one of the very worst defensive performances in the NBA.

[indeedproceed]

How explosive is that Utah-Sacramento matchup going to be?

I think the deck is definitely stacked against me with voters in that series, if we both go through.  Among other reasons, Fafnir and Who are both big Utah fans.

Let me say, preemptively, that Gasol is a great player, and even a hobbled Yao is pretty darn good.  However, Jose Calderon is absolutely cooked, and Derrick Rose would eat him for lunch.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/26/1793552/raptors-stuck-with-calderon.html
 
http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/8/16/1625296/what-happened-to-jose-calderon#storyjump

How bad is Calderon's defense?  He allowed opposing point guards -- many of them bench players -- to score / produce 26.2% more than their averages.  That was one of the very worst defensive performances in the NBA.

Somebody else besides me is really digging the dMulti stat. Pretty cool thing isn't it.

Would you agree that a lot of pg's would be a LOT worse if they didn't have towers behind them, though? You've outlined Bargnani's liabilities and I'm sure you can tell people how bad Bosh would as a defensive anchor..Calderon probably doesn't own that entire stat.

Probably owns a lot of it though, he's bad defensively. One of the worst at staying in front of his man.

[Roy H.]

How explosive is that Utah-Sacramento matchup going to be?

I think the deck is definitely stacked against me with voters in that series, if we both go through.  Among other reasons, Fafnir and Who are both big Utah fans.

Let me say, preemptively, that Gasol is a great player, and even a hobbled Yao is pretty darn good.  However, Jose Calderon is absolutely cooked, and Derrick Rose would eat him for lunch.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/26/1793552/raptors-stuck-with-calderon.html
 
http://www.raptorshq.com/2010/8/16/1625296/what-happened-to-jose-calderon#storyjump

How bad is Calderon's defense?  He allowed opposing point guards -- many of them bench players -- to score / produce 26.2% more than their averages.  That was one of the very worst defensive performances in the NBA.

Somebody else besides me is really digging the dMulti stat. Pretty cool thing isn't it.

Would you agree that a lot of pg's would be a LOT worse if they didn't have towers behind them, though? You've outlined Bargnani's liabilities and I'm sure you can tell people how bad Bosh would as a defensive anchor..Calderon probably doesn't own that entire stat.

Probably owns a lot of it though, he's bad defensively. One of the worst at staying in front of his man.

dMult isn't perfect, and suggests some guys are better than they are (and vice versa), but it's interesting, and sometimes appears dead on (like in this case).  Defensive PER tells a similar story.  Based upon defensive metrics, Jose Calderon may be the very worst defender in the entire NBA.  (Interestingly, Bargnani holds his own defending post players, but overall, he's pretty terrible.  How much of that is due to Calderon releasing his man with a full head of steam into the post?)

I would agree that good big men can cover for a lot of defensive lapses, but Calderon is legitimately a terrible, terrible defender, who has only gotten worse with his repeated injuries.

[indeedproceed]

Here are the votes I intend to make at 11 (at the latest)

Sac over LAL- I think Brandon Roy is the best player in the series, but I don't think Derrick Rose is in another world behind him. After the 1+2 matchup, which I like for LA (just barely, but Roy is one of my favorite players, and maybe the most underrated leader in the league), I don't see anyone on LA's roster who I think can really defend Boozer, or even Randolph if indeed he is behaving himself. This one is pretty solid.

Utah over the Clippers-Calderon is just terrible, but I'm one of the few guys that doesn't see Casspi at the 2 as a huge issue. In the paint, Gasol went off for almost 19pts and 11 boards vs KG in the finals, after another year of wear and tear on KG I think that will only get worse. Also, I don't think Ben Wallace is capable of altering Yao's shot from way down there, let alone blocking it. Rebounding will be a huge issue in this series, and Utah will dominate that issue. Pretty solid here as well.

Phoenix V New Orleans-Honestly, this one is a lot closer now than I thought it would be, and that's an gold star for WW. I'm leaning Phoenix, but not by much.

Denver V Houston-Man this one is close too, and I HATE Sam Dalembert. Leaning Tim Duncan, but I'm going to re-read the arguments again. So very close, this is like 60-40 in Denver's favor.

[action781]

Very close series in the West.  I take:

Utah over LAC.  This was a very tough one.  I see some real domination from Utah down low though and a lot of very very efficient offense.

Phoenix takes it over NO.  I think there's just too much talent in Phoenix.

Houston over Denver.  I actually don't like either team much here.  I think Duncan, in his old age, is just relied on too heavily.  He needs somebody to help him out.

Sacramento over LAL.  I like LAL's guard play a lot, but again, Sac can beat them down low.  I don't like Randolph and think he's a contending team cancer, but I just don't see how Bargs and Beasley can guard him and/or Boozer if they are both out there together.

[StartOrien]

New Orleans Bucs = Overrated

Ok, sure, it’s the winners right to gloat. But you weren’t so confident this morning while furiously backpedaling and playing musical chairs with your starting line-up.

Fortunate for you that game plan doesn’t matter and everybody bought into a dull “my draft pick is bigger than your draft pick” argument.

CB Draft won’t have Stan Van Gundy and THE Walker Wiggle to kick around anymore.

Just a point of clarification, anytime I use the "(something) = overrated" I mean it as a joke, and only use it when I completely disagree with the statement I've made. I think I've used it on three occasions, for Rashard Lewis (who I think is an underrated player), for the fake Orlando Magic (who was my number one seed in the East), and for the fake New Orleans Bucs (who I thought did a great job, and if anything I thought people underrated their team slightly).

[Roy H.]

Sacramento over LAL.  I like LAL's guard play a lot, but again, Sac can beat them down low.  I don't like Randolph and think he's a contending team cancer, but I just don't see how Bargs and Beasley can guard him and/or Boozer if they are both out there together.

Fair to say that, if Sacramento wins the #3 seed in the West and cruises through the first round of the playoffs, that Randolph is no longer a team cancer?  I mean, if those issues were going to come up, presumably they would have been a factor before now.

I see that much the same way I see injuries.  For instance, with Utah:  if people thought highly enough to make Utah the #2 seed and had them easily into the second round, then Yao must be playing at least okay.

[StartOrien]

Sacramento over LAL.  I like LAL's guard play a lot, but again, Sac can beat them down low.  I don't like Randolph and think he's a contending team cancer, but I just don't see how Bargs and Beasley can guard him and/or Boozer if they are both out there together.

Fair to say that, if Sacramento wins the #3 seed in the West and cruises through the first round of the playoffs, that Randolph is no longer a team cancer?  I mean, if those issues were going to come up, presumably they would have been a factor before now.

I see that much the same way I see injuries.  For instance, with Utah:  if people thought highly enough to make Utah the #2 seed and had them easily into the second round, then Yao must be playing at least okay.

Or I/others thought the Clippers also had some pretty serious injury concerns of their own, and some real lack of depth backing their PF and C up who at the very least need their minutes limited.

Utah cruises past LAC even if they were w/o Yao.

[Roy H.]

Utah cruises past LAC even if they were w/o Yao.

Interesting.  Under those circumstances, I would have gone with the Clips; I don't think Utah could have kept up with their back court.

[StartOrien]

I don't see it. At the very, very best you're getting 35 mpg out of Wallace and Garnett respectively (and I don't see that happening, particularily for Wallace who has played 28, 23 and 30 minutes per game in the past 3 seasons and 12.6 in his last playoff).

That leaves an absolute minimum of 26 minutes for Yi and Reggie Evans against some combo of Pau Gasol, Robin Lopez and I'm assuming limited minutes for Craig Smith (who I'm high on).

Because of these matchups the scoring burden is pretty high on Billups and Richardson. I think they both get some big numbers, but it wouldn't be enough to offset high minutes out of Yi, Evans and the lack of offensive production out of Ben Wallace.