Mike Miller Backing Out of Heat Deal?

[Rondo2287]

Look, it's not that I'm saying the Heat aren't going to be very, very, very good next season.  But folks are throwing around things like 60+ wins and an NBA title like they were almost givens.

With 2 of the top 5 players in the league and one of the top 5 power forwards, the Heat are going to beat a lot of people next year and beat them badly.  But when you match up the apparent Heat roster against what's likely going to be the other top 4 teams in the East next season, the Heat are not without flaws.

I've heard that Riley is trying to bring in Juwan Howard.  That would give Miami a top 8 rotation next season of Wade, Bron, Bosh and...

Big Z - 7.4 points, 5.4 rebounds in 21 minutes last season.
Q-Rich - 8.9 points, 4.9 rebounds in 27 minutes last season.
Haslem - 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds in 28 minutes last season.
Miller - 10.9 points, 6.2 rebounds in 33 minutes last season.
Howard - 6 points, 4.6 rebounds in 22 minutes last season.

So, since I doubt Big Z can log much more than 20some minutes a game anymore, the Heat will spend a lot of time playing two undersized 4s at the 5 and one of them is pretty old.  And if they play Chalmers or any other PG at all next season, that will significantly cut into the minutes and production of both Q-Rich and Miller.

In a couple of years, after Miami has brought in MLE-level talent a couple times, the Heat are going to be scary, scary, scary.  This year...not quite so much.

Frankly, I'd be a lot more worried about the Heat if they'd landed Fisher and J O'Neal instead of Miller and Haslem.

Mike

QRich is gone to Orlando, I think.  They've got Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers in their rotation, though.  Anthony is a pretty good defender.

C: Anthony / Big Z / (Howard)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / Howard
SF: Lebron
SG: Miller
PG: Wade / (Chalmers)

They've still got plenty of time to fill out their roster.  I wouldn't be shocked if Eddie House signed there.  Matt Barnes may.  Shaq is an outside possibility.

The Heat are a very, very scary team, and honestly, I think they've got to be the Eastern Conference favorites next year.

Im kinda Curious why more hasnt been made about injury possibilities on this team.  Bosh missed 30+ games last year, and Dwade has his own history. If one of their big three goes down, im not sure they can make it as far as the celts did without KG.

[wdleehi]

Was Ron Harper a PG when he started along with Jordon and Pippen?

Or when he started next to Kobe?


In both cases, he defended PGs on defense, but someone else ran the point.  In both cases, he won a ring.


So, I am missing the issue with starting two SGs when you have someone of Lebron's level running the offense.

Is Mike Miller similar to Ron Harper in any way?

Are the Heat going to run the triangle offense, which requires different things from its PG than other offenses?

Mike

He can hit an outside shot.

And Wade can defend the PGs. 

[BballTim]

Magic usually played with two other guards didn't he? LeBron can play the PG position at an all NBA level if that's where he is put by his coaching staff.

How many PGs have a quickness advantage on Wade? Not a whole lot, and he can adjust to guarding PGs if necessary. Do you really think he's a worse option that Mario Chalmers, Derek Fisher, Mo Williams, Shannon Brown, etc. that all were PGs defensively for playoff teams?

No, Magic usually played PG with a shooting guard and two forwards.  In 85-85, for example, the starters for most of the year were Magic, Byron Scott, Kurt Rambis, James Worthy and Kareem.

The question isn't is Wade better than those guys.  The question is, is playing Wade, LeBron, Miller better than playing Wade and LeBron with a legitimate point guard?  Not a great PG, just someone to handle the ball, run the offense and hit an occasional shot.

Mike

Unless they get someone like Chris Paul, the ball will be in Lebron's hand.  He will be the PG on offense.


So the best fit is a guy that is a threat from three point land.


So, Wade and Miller as a backcourt is probably the best they can set up at this point. 

  Where does that leave Wade, though, if the ball's always in LeBron's hands? Or where does it leave LeBron if Wade has the ball? Neither of them are great without the ball. If you compare Miami's trio to PP/KG/RA, KG and Bosh are similar offensively. PP and RA are both better outside shots than James and Wade and also both take more shots from the outside. So, while Wade and James may be better offensive players than Paul and Ray were in 2008 they're probably easier to defend as a team, especially in half court situations.

  You also have to consider their high usages. James and Wade are both top 3 in the league in usage%. Paul and Ray's usage% dropped by close to 20% in 2008, while James and Wade could see a 25+% drop. While it makes sense to put another shooter on the floor than a point guard (who won't handle the ball a lot), it's worth noting how often Doc talked about how hard it was for Rondo to run the team with all three of the big three demanding the ball. The situation in Miami would be worse, and worse still without an "arbitrator".

  

[billysan]

Wade didn't play off the ball, though.  He had the ball in his hands the vast majority of the time.  That's why his assist numbers are much higher than Chalmers'.  

I'm not sure if people are thinking that Chalmers was the guy initiating the offense for the Heat consistently last year, but if they are, they're mistaken.  Wade was the de facto point guard on offense, and Wade and Lebron are now going to be splitting those duties with the Heat, I imagine.

I agree he had the ball in his hands the majority of the time. Like Pierce does/did with us at times. It also explains the assist numbers, just like all superstar players that have high assist numbers. I understand that he initiates the offense.

I am talking about bringing the ball up the court across the time line. If Wade does that on every play it will diminish his game IMO. Same would go for Lebron. I think they get out on the wings and run up court, while a PG brings the ball up on most possessions. That PG will need to be able to hit an open spot up jumper because after a double team of James or Wade he will be left open very often.

You could be right Roy, I just dont think Wade is going to like being the 'PG' with Miller at SG and Lebron at SF waiting for him to initiate offense and pass them the ball. I think this is why they tried to sign D Fisher even though he is a SG in a PG body as someone pointed out.

If Wade initiates the offense, he will be taking most of the shots. Will James be ok with that? What about the reverse? Will Wade be ok with Lebron getting the majority of the shots if he is the point forward? Both of these guys are used to 20+ shots per game, who is going to defer? maybe neither, that will be fun to watch.

Bosh will have no choice but to be unselfish, the offense will not go through him except for the occaisional pick and roll. Will Wade and Lebron be that unselfish? Wade thinks this is his team ala Pierce. Is it? I guess we will see.

[MBunge]

Look, it's not that I'm saying the Heat aren't going to be very, very, very good next season.  But folks are throwing around things like 60+ wins and an NBA title like they were almost givens.

With 2 of the top 5 players in the league and one of the top 5 power forwards, the Heat are going to beat a lot of people next year and beat them badly.  But when you match up the apparent Heat roster against what's likely going to be the other top 4 teams in the East next season, the Heat are not without flaws.

I've heard that Riley is trying to bring in Juwan Howard.  That would give Miami a top 8 rotation next season of Wade, Bron, Bosh and...

Big Z - 7.4 points, 5.4 rebounds in 21 minutes last season.
Q-Rich - 8.9 points, 4.9 rebounds in 27 minutes last season.
Haslem - 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds in 28 minutes last season.
Miller - 10.9 points, 6.2 rebounds in 33 minutes last season.
Howard - 6 points, 4.6 rebounds in 22 minutes last season.

So, since I doubt Big Z can log much more than 20some minutes a game anymore, the Heat will spend a lot of time playing two undersized 4s at the 5 and one of them is pretty old.  And if they play Chalmers or any other PG at all next season, that will significantly cut into the minutes and production of both Q-Rich and Miller.

In a couple of years, after Miami has brought in MLE-level talent a couple times, the Heat are going to be scary, scary, scary.  This year...not quite so much.

Frankly, I'd be a lot more worried about the Heat if they'd landed Fisher and J O'Neal instead of Miller and Haslem.

Mike

QRich is gone to Orlando, I think.  They've got Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers in their rotation, though.  Anthony is a pretty good defender.

C: Anthony / Big Z / (Howard)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / Howard
SF: Lebron
SG: Miller
PG: Wade / (Chalmers)

They've still got plenty of time to fill out their roster.  I wouldn't be shocked if Eddie House signed there.  Matt Barnes may.  Shaq is an outside possibility.

The Heat are a very, very scary team, and honestly, I think they've got to be the Eastern Conference favorites next year.

I goofed on Q-Rich, which makes the Heat roster even weaker outside the New, New Big 3.

For example, Joel Anthony as starting center?  Are you kidding me?  Joel Anthony averaged 2.7 points and 3.1 boards a game last season and is 6'9'' and will be 28 by the time the season starts, so it's not like he's going to get any better.  Perk was as good as this guy in his 2nd year in the league.  Think 2nd year Perk coulda been the starting center on a championship contender?

Mike

[MBunge]

Was Ron Harper a PG when he started along with Jordon and Pippen?

Or when he started next to Kobe?


In both cases, he defended PGs on defense, but someone else ran the point.  In both cases, he won a ring.


So, I am missing the issue with starting two SGs when you have someone of Lebron's level running the offense.

Is Mike Miller similar to Ron Harper in any way?

Are the Heat going to run the triangle offense, which requires different things from its PG than other offenses?

Mike

He can hit an outside shot.

And Wade can defend the PGs. 

Again, if you're going to use Wade or Bron as magic fairies who will solve every problem because they're just so gosh darn awesome, it's hard to have an intelligent discussion.

Mike

[wdleehi]

Was Ron Harper a PG when he started along with Jordon and Pippen?

Or when he started next to Kobe?


In both cases, he defended PGs on defense, but someone else ran the point.  In both cases, he won a ring.


So, I am missing the issue with starting two SGs when you have someone of Lebron's level running the offense.

Is Mike Miller similar to Ron Harper in any way?

Are the Heat going to run the triangle offense, which requires different things from its PG than other offenses?

Mike

He can hit an outside shot.

And Wade can defend the PGs. 

Again, if you're going to use Wade or Bron as magic fairies who will solve every problem because they're just so gosh darn awesome, it's hard to have an intelligent discussion.

Mike

You are right.  Wade can't defend PGs.  He has never been asked to do that every year of his career. 


Really?


Who ran the offense in Cleveland?  Lebron.


What PG can the Heat get that can run an offense better then Lebron right now?  No one.


What do they need from the other G position on offense?  An outside threat to help space the floor and hit those open shots.

Who are they trying to sign?  Miller, a SG that is at his best stretching the floor and hitting open outside shots. 

Has this ever been done before?  Yep.


Was it successful?  5 rings.

[MBunge]

Was Ron Harper a PG when he started along with Jordon and Pippen?

Or when he started next to Kobe?


In both cases, he defended PGs on defense, but someone else ran the point.  In both cases, he won a ring.


So, I am missing the issue with starting two SGs when you have someone of Lebron's level running the offense.

Is Mike Miller similar to Ron Harper in any way?

Are the Heat going to run the triangle offense, which requires different things from its PG than other offenses?

Mike

He can hit an outside shot.

And Wade can defend the PGs. 

Again, if you're going to use Wade or Bron as magic fairies who will solve every problem because they're just so gosh darn awesome, it's hard to have an intelligent discussion.

Mike

You are right.  Wade can't defend PGs.  He has never been asked to do that every year of his career. 


Really?


Who ran the offense in Cleveland?  Lebron.


What PG can the Heat get that can run an offense better then Lebron right now?  No one.


What do they need from the other G position on offense?  An outside threat to help space the floor and hit those open shots.

Who are they trying to sign?  Miller, a SG that is at his best stretching the floor and hitting open outside shots. 

Has this ever been done before?  Yep.


Was it successful?  5 rings.

Try to follow along.  I didn't say Wade can't defend PGs.  I said asking him to defend PGs for an entire game, especially the best PGs in the league, is going to be a problem.  Has Wade ever defended PGs for the whole game in the NBA or college?

And LeBron did not run the offense in Cleveland.  The offense ran through him.  That's not the same thing.  When the Sacramento Kings used to run their offense through Chris Webber, that did not mean Webber could have been the starting point guard on another team in the league.

And are the Heat going to run the triangle next year?

Mike

[Truth Hurts]

I think a lot of Celtics fans are in denial. Miami is going to be an amazing team. The criticisms of this team sound exactly the same as people criticizing the Celtics three years ago. How did that work out?

Let's face it. This team is deeper right now than we are. Assuming they get Miller and Howard, they have an 8 man rotation that could compete right now. We have 6 healthy players, none of whom are a top 5 talent like Lebron or Dwayne Wade.

I'm not giving up, and I believe if everything goes right, we could find a way to beat them in a 7 game series. But if I was a betting man, I would bet on Miami to win 65-70 games and an NBA title. And I would pick them to win at least 3-5 titles in the Lebron/Wade/Bosh era.

These perceived "weaknesses" are minor issues that can and will be overcome by the stellar play of the New Big Three.

[BballTim]

LeBron could be a rich man's Magic Johnson, if that's the role they ask him to play.

  No, he couldn't. James is a good passer but he doesn't run an offense or a transition offense. He gets the defense to collapse on him and then he passes to an open person.

[thirstyboots18]

Since Lebron and Wade played together on the Olympic team and won the gold, does anyone know how much time they actually spent  on the floor together, and how well they meshed at that time  playing together, who took the lead, etc?

[MBunge]

I think a lot of Celtics fans are in denial. Miami is going to be an amazing team. The criticisms of this team sound exactly the same as people criticizing the Celtics three years ago. How did that work out?

If this Heat team plays some of the best defense in the history of the league, like Boston did 3 years ago, they may be able to do everything people expect.  If their defense isn't that good, these weaknesses are going to be very real.

Mike

[billysan]

LeBron could be a rich man's Magic Johnson, if that's the role they ask him to play.

  No, he couldn't. James is a good passer but he doesn't run an offense or a transition offense. He gets the defense to collapse on him and then he passes to an open person.

Thank you. I am also not convinced he can bring the ball up court under pressure on a regular basis, if at all. He is best suited to starting high above the three point line and trying to penetrate into the lane by muscling or out quicking his defender, then shooting or dumping the ball off to a teammate if the lane is closed.

[BballTim]

I think a lot of Celtics fans are in denial. Miami is going to be an amazing team. The criticisms of this team sound exactly the same as people criticizing the Celtics three years ago. How did that work out?

Let's face it. This team is deeper right now than we are. Assuming they get Miller and Howard, they have an 8 man rotation that could compete right now. We have 6 healthy players, none of whom are a top 5 talent like Lebron or Dwayne Wade.

I'm not giving up, and I believe if everything goes right, we could find a way to beat them in a 7 game series. But if I was a betting man, I would bet on Miami to win 65-70 games and an NBA title. And I would pick them to win at least 3-5 titles in the Lebron/Wade/Bosh era.

These perceived "weaknesses" are minor issues that can and will be overcome by the stellar play of the New Big Three.

  I don't think that it's a lock that the team won't have chemistry issues. It's one thing to say that James and Wade are great players. It's another thing to say that their games complement each other's well. When one of them has the ball on offense the value of the other is significantly diminished. They might  (and probably will) be great together but there's a good possibility the sum will be less than the parts.

[Jon]

LeBron could be a rich man's Magic Johnson, if that's the role they ask him to play.

  No, he couldn't. James is a good passer but he doesn't run an offense or a transition offense. He gets the defense to collapse on him and then he passes to an open person.

Thank you. I am also not convinced he can bring the ball up court under pressure on a regular basis, if at all. He is best suited to starting high above the three point line and trying to penetrate into the lane by muscling or out quicking his defender, then shooting or dumping the ball off to a teammate if the lane is closed.

The only thing about LeBron playing the point is that he'll still likely be guarded by opposing 3s.  And most opposing 3s aren't used to pressuring a ball-handler the full length of the court.  Thus, while he may be at a disadvantage, so would they. 

I think he can bring the ball up OK, the question to me is whether he can get his own offense going after bringing the ball up the court.  If he passes it once he brings it over, how long does he have to wait to get it back?  Will this turn him into a jump shooter?