oden for perk: the post banner 18 discussion

[Chris]

I don't get why all the trade ideas for Perk are coming along.  Perkins is a 7-footer (I know probably closer to 6'10") who defends and averages double digit points (I know its only 10, but still).

As the NBA has become a game dominated by the wings players like Perk are rare.  Big men seem to be at greater risk for injury (Camby, Bynum, Griffin, Yao, and..oh yeah...Oden), but Perk has been fairly healthy for his career ***knock on wood***.

So there is no way I would trade him straight up for any other center in the league not named Dwight Howard.

Two reasons. 

1. This team is very short on "assets" that they can turn into potential stars.  Perk is one of the few that there is even a chance teams would give up real value for, other than Rondo (not going to be traded) and the Big 3 (tougher contracts to deal with, more sentimental connections, etc.).

2. Perk is a FA next summer, where he could be looking for a large raise, pushing him well out of bargain territory, to the point where he could be an albatross as a one dimensional player being paid like a star.  So if they can get value for him now, they need to at least explore it.

[arctic 3.0]

In November, the guy was averaging 13/8 in 25 minutes per game, and was playing lockdown defense.

Perk did almost exactly the same in December, and had comparable outings in November and January.

I understand we have to improve, but I feel that trading Perkins for Oden is like trading Pierce when we drafted Green.

not a good comparison.
green was light years from contributing, he had zero history of success against high caliber competition.
Oden has shown he can play at this level, and dominate. he was averaging 8 rebounds and 12 points before the latest injury. he had 20 rebounds and 4 blocks the game before he went down.

a more apt comparison would involve trading a solid young player (perk and his Big D) for one with greater skills but bigger risks (oden and his injury concerns). Try Jefferson for KG. jefferson proved he could play at this level and had a desirable skill set (big low post presence) KG was easily the better player but his age and health were already a concern.
 

[BudweiserCeltic]

. . .  I only see the C's moving Perk if it can save them money and/or get them a star.  Unfortunately, I don't think this accomplishes either.

Well, the type of star that we could get for Perk probably falls into one of two categories:  a draft pick who we develop, or a star that is currently flawed, due to injuries, contract, or something else.

Oden has the raw talent to be a stud center for a decade, and would form a fantastic nucleus with Rondo going forward.  If we're going to downgrade at some point to rebuild, I'd be fine with a move like this, because while the risk is moderate, the reward is off-the-charts.

However, I just can't see Portland trading a potential stud center for a defensive specialist.  They already have J.P. on their roster, and he probably gives them approximately what Perk does.

Good point.  And I agree that Oden would be the type of talent the C's would target.  I just think his injury concerns and more importantly his contract would scare them away.  He will be a RFA next summer.  So if he stays healthy this year, he would be looking for a big raise right away.  And then if he doesn't stay healthy, do you let him walk next summer?

I think this is a harder decision for the C's than Portland (who I don't think consider it), but I think when it came down to it, they would prefer a more cost controlled player in return for Perk.

Well, we're just thinking in terms of Oden vs. Perk. I don't think a trade that would involve those two would be that simple.

For one, I think they have quite a bit of incentive for not wanting Camby on the books in the 2011-2012 season.

What mix of players could be involved? I don't know, but I would think we need to look beyond a Perk vs. Oden perspective to see what makes sense and what doesn't.

Main problem at the moment is our lack of assets.

[arctic 3.0]

I don't get why all the trade ideas for Perk are coming along.  Perkins is a 7-footer (I know probably closer to 6'10") who defends and averages double digit points (I know its only 10, but still).

As the NBA has become a game dominated by the wings players like Perk are rare.  Big men seem to be at greater risk for injury (Camby, Bynum, Griffin, Yao, and..oh yeah...Oden), but Perk has been fairly healthy for his career ***knock on wood***.

So there is no way I would trade him straight up for any other center in the league not named Dwight Howard.

Two reasons. 

1. This team is very short on "assets" that they can turn into potential stars.  Perk is one of the few that there is even a chance teams would give up real value for, other than Rondo (not going to be traded) and the Big 3 (tougher contracts to deal with, more sentimental connections, etc.).

2. Perk is a FA next summer, where he could be looking for a large raise, pushing him well out of bargain territory, to the point where he could be an albatross as a one dimensional player being paid like a star.  So if they can get value for him now, they need to at least explore it.

agreed, our only tradeable assets are perk and baby.
if we win this year their value around the league will be as high as its going to get. neither will bring us a championship with out the big 4. we would be stupid not to try and sell high and load up for life after gpa.

[arctic 3.0]

Are you kidding me?  I would never give up Perk for Oden.  Perk is one of the best defensive centers in a league who fits perfectly with our team.  Oden is an untested bum who hasn't been healthy enough to play more than 2 months at a time his whole career.  STOP HATING ON PERK. HE IS AMAZING!

love perk, but see my reasoning in the above post

[j804]

Uhmm no other than Howard, Bogut or maybe Kaman

theres no one id want a trade for....also as you say post Banner 18, yeah breaking up the starting five that just won a championship would be the thing to do 

[guava_wrench]

I understand Perk is not going to blow you away, but Oden has miles to go before he becomes half the player Perkins is right now. It's not even that he's a 300 lb player with leg/foot issues, but for the short while he's been on an NBA court, he hasn't shown he's able to be a NBA contributor -- or that he can progress far beyond his current state either. I'd much rather keep Perkins.

I don't think this is true at all.  While Oden has struggled with fouls, like many young big men do (Perk still has those struggles), he has been very effective in the short time he has been on the floor an healthy.  

Ultimately though, this comes down to the fact that the Blazers are not ready to give him up for a roleplaying center, particularly since they already have Pryzbilla and Camby.  Even if the value is there (which I don't believe it is), they would never pull that trigger.

This was also my immediate reaction. Pryzbilla can already play the Perk role. Portland needs to hold onto the guy with the upside.

[housecall]

My gut tells me guys like Oden&Bynum will always spend a lot of time on the DL.I read an article awhile back explaining some of my feelings,but can't remember right off what it was.Bynum will always be in/out of the Lakers lineup according to this article for leg,knee issues because of his makeup,etc...same thing was explained about Oden.This may not be true down the road but so far,it looks more like it could be so.

[arctic 3.0]

Uhmm no other than Howard, Bogut or maybe Kaman

theres no one id want a trade for....also as you say post Banner 18, yeah breaking up the starting five that just won a championship would be the thing to do  

precisely the time to make the move. our role players will never have higher value. with little spending money and few tradeable assets we have little other option then to move those pieces while their value is highest. :|

[footey]

Portland would not think of doing this trade. Oden was number 1 pick ahead of Durant, they will give him at least another 2 years before throwing in the towel.

[kozlodoev]

a more apt comparison would involve trading a solid young player (perk and his Big D) for one with greater skills but bigger risks (oden and his injury concerns). Try Jefferson for KG. jefferson proved he could play at this level and had a desirable skill set (big low post presence) KG was easily the better player but his age and health were already a concern.

Up to now, Oden hasn't shown greater skills. He has shown that maybe he can be a better player down the road, if he remains healthy and stops fouling.

In ordinary circumstances, the injury concerns alone would be enough to dismiss this trade, but the fact that the said big man is a project makes this situation even less appealing.

Frankly, I feel we have better chance to rebuild via free agency when the large contracts have off the books. Limited as he is, Perkins can be a starting center for us for another 8-10 seasons.

[Roy Hobbs]

a more apt comparison would involve trading a solid young player (perk and his Big D) for one with greater skills but bigger risks (oden and his injury concerns). Try Jefferson for KG. jefferson proved he could play at this level and had a desirable skill set (big low post presence) KG was easily the better player but his age and health were already a concern.

Up to now, Oden hasn't shown greater skills. He has shown that maybe he can be a better player down the road, if he remains healthy and stops fouling.

I don't think it's all just potential.  Last season, Oden scored more points, grabbed more rebounds, had more blocks (significantly) and shot a higher percentage (slightly) than Perk, in fewer minutes.

Link.

Of course, the injuries are a big, big concern.  However, I think that Oden is already a better all-around player than Perk.  He still has a ton to learn, but the skills are there.

[PAOBoston]

if this deal is indeed on the table at some point, i think the celtics gotta pull the trigger. oden just has too much upside to pass up.

i love perk and his work ethic but let's face it: perk is a one dimensional player; he plays good defense, isn't a bad rebounder, and is a good teammate but that's pretty much it. he has no low post game and you basically have to spoon feed him to score. also, he has some of the worst hands i have ever seen. also, he's do for a pay raise (maybe around 7-8 million) and i wouldnt want to overpay perk just on the fact that he's a good defender.

while oden carries a bigger risk, it's worth the gamble. also, the dude looks like bill russell. enough said lol.

[Marqui]

also, he's do for a pay raise (maybe around 7-8 million) and i wouldnt want to overpay perk just on the fact that he's a good defender.

Where do people get this stuff from that Perk is going to get a big pay raise? There's no way his market value is going to be 7-8 million. What other teams are going to make big offers for an undersized center that can't do anything but play defense? Let's be honest, Perk isn't a starter on any playoff team other than the Cs. I can't imagine he'll be getting payed significantly more than his current contract. If he does, than we should probably let him walk. I love him but 7-8 million is way overpaying for the guy.

[kozlodoev]

Of course, the injuries are a big, big concern.  However, I think that Oden is already a better all-around player than Perk.  He still has a ton to learn, but the skills are there.

Right. And yet another issue is whether we want to gamble Rondo's prime (25-30 years) on Oden learning, or we want to keep the proven building block and sign players with solid track record.