Take back Posey???

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Okay...as much as I hate to renew any of the "Bring Back XYZ" ideas, and that I didn't disagree with not resigning him for the long deal, I'm reconsidering...

N'Owlins could use to save some cash, and has only 14 players under contract (so they could take on another).  It probably regrets signing Pose, who doesn't seem to be helping them all that much.  He might not be worth his salary right now, frankly...but would help our bench.  So here it is: 

Scal/TA for Posey and some version of a 2nd rounder.

We're left with 13 players, can sign a FA PG, and have a 2nd rounder for "someday", or to include in a trade for the competent backup PG that will certainly be on the roster for the playoffs.  Or we can finally use Daniels at backup PG and still have a solid backup wing, which we dont' have now with MD backing up 3 positions.

In answer to the 'should've signed him in the 1st place' idea, we'd be getting rid of contracts to better afford him, and getting the 2nd rd pick.  Might fill a need for us.

I think NO trades him to a contender this year in a salary dump.  Might as well be us.

What do you think?

[BballTim]

  Posey was passed his prime when he signed the contract, so he's getting worse as his contract gets more expensive. The first year was the best (best play and least money). The last year is the worst (worse play and more money). We'd be getting the worst years of the deal. If they didn't want to give a 32 year old Posey 4 years/25M why would they want to give a 33 year old Posey 3 years/19M?

[Fan from VT]

I'd only do it if it involved Collison or a first rounder, or possibly Wright or Thorton

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  Posey was passed his prime when he signed the contract, so he's getting worse as his contract gets more expensive. The first year was the best (best play and least money). The last year is the worst (worse play and more money). We'd be getting the worst years of the deal. If they didn't want to give a 32 year old Posey 4 years/25M why would they want to give a 33 year old Posey 3 years/19M?

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

In the last, worst year of the deal, he becomes expiring contract trade fodder.  I believe his deal would expire the same year as 'Sheed's fat...um...deal...expires?  That year, if we still have both players, might not be great, but we're expecting that.  Now, we'd have Daniels/Posey/Sheed as the bench in an 8-player playoff rotation (add min. contract backup PG for a 9-player rotation).

The pick makes up for the talent drop off as Posey ages, I think.  Maybe instead of a 2nd rounder, we swap 1st rounders (top 10 protected for NO), something like that.

We make the money work by finally not carrying 15 players, letting 2nd rounders play in Europe/D-League, where they probably should be, to develop, and re-signing Ray to something closer to the mid-level.

Basically, instead of trying to match up with an athletic wing, we get just get back to beating up opposing athletic wings, which seems to suit us pretty well.

Also, if we're going to pick someone up mid-season, better someone that knows the system, and that we know can play in it.  I'll grant that he may be worth more to us than another team.

[Who]

I'd only do it if it involved Collison or a first rounder, or possibly Wright or Thorton

Darren Collison would make things a lot more interesting. I like Collison's game a lot, I think he'd be an excellent backup point guard for this team now and over the next couple of years.

His rookie scale contract would coincide with Posey's contract too. So it would be like filling two positions for $7-8 million per year. Collison the primary backup point guard and Posey a reserve wing. The duration of Posey's contract also takes us to the end of Garnett's deal.

The Celtics are going to have to spend that much, or close to it, next offseason on their main backup guards + wings anyway. So financially, not a lot of difference once you account for Collison's cheap deal.

Still not sure ... but definitely a lot more interesting.

[Jon]

Again, I think it's a lot of salary to swallow for a guy who might not even have a role on this team.  Sure he could help right now with all the injuries, but if everyone is healthy come playoff time, where does he fit in?  Pierce and Allen are playing 36 mpg NOW, they'll likely play closer to 40 mpg come playoff time, which leaves a whopping 16-20 mpg of backup minutes at the 2 and 3 spots.  Marquis Daniels can easily cover that by himself.

So all Posey would really become is a very expensive insurance policy that could prohibit us from using the MLE next summer.  I don't think it's worth it.  

[wdleehi]

If the Celtics did not want to swallow that price tag when he was a FA (and a better player), why would they swallow it now?

[BballTim]

  Posey was passed his prime when he signed the contract, so he's getting worse as his contract gets more expensive. The first year was the best (best play and least money). The last year is the worst (worse play and more money). We'd be getting the worst years of the deal. If they didn't want to give a 32 year old Posey 4 years/25M why would they want to give a 33 year old Posey 3 years/19M?

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense.

In the last, worst year of the deal, he becomes expiring contract trade fodder.  I believe his deal would expire the same year as 'Sheed's fat...um...deal...expires?  That year, if we still have both players, might not be great, but we're expecting that.  Now, we'd have Daniels/Posey/Sheed as the bench in an 8-player playoff rotation (add min. contract backup PG for a 9-player rotation).

The pick makes up for the talent drop off as Posey ages, I think.  Maybe instead of a 2nd rounder, we swap 1st rounders (top 10 protected for NO), something like that.

We make the money work by finally not carrying 15 players, letting 2nd rounders play in Europe/D-League, where they probably should be, to develop, and re-signing Ray to something closer to the mid-level.

Basically, instead of trying to match up with an athletic wing, we get just get back to beating up opposing athletic wings, which seems to suit us pretty well.

Also, if we're going to pick someone up mid-season, better someone that knows the system, and that we know can play in it.  I'll grant that he may be worth more to us than another team.

  We're going to go bare-bones on depth in order to fit an overpayed aging player on the roster? And Posey doesn't just represent an expiring contract in 2 years, he represents $7M-$8M that we won't be able to spend on other players. Ray might sign for less money (not likely close to the MLE) but Rondo's salary is going to take a big jump at the same time.

[Who]

Okay, to take it one step further ... a semi-free agent list for 2010

Full MLE or Large Chunk of MLE

Guards -- Raymond Felton, Chris Duhon, Steve Blake, Kyle Lowry (R), Jordan Farmer (R), Randy Foye (R), Will Bynum (R)
Wings -- Mike Miller, Marquis Daniels, Travis Outlaw, Anthony Morrow (R), Linas Kleiza (R), JJ Redick (R), Josh Childress (R), Kelenna Azubuike (PO), Tracy McGrady

Split MLE

Guards -- Rafer Alston, Luke Ridnour, Nate Robinson, Roger Mason Jr
Wings -- Raja Bell, Kyle Korver, Quentin Richardson, Dorrell Wright, Rasual Butler, Mo Evans (PO)

Minimum Contracts

Guards -- Flip Murray, Anthony Carter, Carlos Arroyo, Anthony Johnson, Jason Williams,
Wing -- Keith Bogans, Ime Udoka, Sasha Pavlovic, Rodney Carney, Trenton Hassell, Devin Brown, Damien Wilkins, Bobby Simmons?

Celtics Free Agents

(1) Eddie House -- likely in $1.5-$2.5 million range
(2) Tony Allen -- likely in minimum contract to $1.5 million range
(3) Marquis Daniels -- underpaid + non bird rights (120% of previous years pay) -- max offer of $2.4 million which is unlikely to be enough.

I'd only do it if it involved Collison or a first rounder, or possibly Wright or Thorton

So it would be like filling two positions for $7-8 million per year. Collison the primary backup point guard and Posey a reserve wing.

The Celtics are going to have to spend that much, or close to it, next offseason on their main backup guards + wings anyway. So financially, not a lot of difference once you account for Collison's cheap deal.

Okay, so here's the question, how many combinations

• MLE + resign some of own free agents (likely House)
• MLE + minimum contract
• Split the MLE between two players

So, how many combinations at PG + SG/SF are significantly superior to a Darren Collison + James Posey combination? And how likely are the Celtics to acquire one of those combinations via free agency?

And is it worth the risk of turning down a Collison + Posey deal if it were ever put on the table?

[guava_wrench]

I'm tired of people presenting future overpriced expiring contracts at a positive. How many of those contracts never get traded, even though a team wants to trade them? That is just wasted money.

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I'm tired of people presenting future overpriced expiring contracts at a positive. How many of those contracts never get traded, even though a team wants to trade them? That is just wasted money.

Very true, and I agree. 

But what would you pay for the last piece of a championship team?  What is a title worth?  We gave 'Sheed a 3rd year, right?  Who knows how fat he'll be by then?  Miami paid Shaq, and won a title, even though everyone knew he wouldn't be worth it...um...this year, in fact (but if the Cavs had balls, they'd trade him for Jamison). 

Cheap talent at the level we want, that would fit in with our roster, is not likely coming.  Frankly, I'm more tired of dreamy Caron Butler and Chris Paul trade ideas, things that would only happen in fantasy worlds...Oz or something...

So I think it is worth discussing, so I posted it.  He fills a need, it's a deal that can actually be done (in about 15 minutes), and there are no chemistry issues or learning curve problems to worry about like there may be with other trade ideas, and we could add assets to start rebuilding in the form of a draft pick, which they will give to get out of Posey's deal.

And any FA we get this summer would likely be only a role player, anyway, and given the expected market, we might have to overpay or stand pat.

[rhinospeed]

Think I'd have to do it with collison. Who knows Posey might play better in a more limited role.

[Drucci]

I'm all for bringing Posey back as long as it doesn't prevent us from re-signing Ray this summer. I think we can expect Marquis to resign for the MLE.

Posey, to me, would be the perfect missing piece we are lacking right now, even if our entire roster is healthy. His offense is still there, he can hit the clutch 3 in the playoffs. There are concerns about his defense and some decline in that area, but with the guys on our team and Posey knowing the systems, I don't think it will hurt us.

At least this year, if we get Posey back, he will only bring positives and maybe even spark the fire that has been missing in the team at times. Not only does he bring a lot of assets, but he also has a big impact mentally and you can't overlook that kind of contribution.

His contract would hurt us in a few years but so will Sheed's and KG's, compared their pay at that time and their big dropoff in production due to age. If Danny accepted it with Sheed, he should accept it with Posey. Unfortunately this trade probably won't happen since Danny refused to sign Posey at this price two years ago.

But my worst fear is that Posey is traded to another contender. This would come back to haunt us in the playoffs in my opinion.

[housecall]

As much as i like Posey to return  i would like to see Travis Outlaw in green also.

[Jon]

Think I'd have to do it with collison. Who knows Posey might play better in a more limited role.

But does ownership want to pay over what ends up being over 10 million dollars a year (with the luxury tax) for a guy with a limited role.  

Let me go on record as saying that I've never been a big Tony Allen fan and I was furious with management for letting Posey go.  However, at this point, I think Tony Allen is more than capable of being the fourth wing on this team that plays the odd 5 minutes of game during the playoffs when someone gets in foul trouble.  

Now if Marquis was out the rest of the year, it'd be a different story; however, since he looks to be more than fine come playoff time, he should be able to fill our need of a backup 2/3 just fine.