Rondo's Market Value (merged threads)

[Birdbrain]

Rondo isn't going to get any cheaper as the season goes on.  He is going to break-out this year.  Lock him up now Danny.

I would venture to guess it would be Rondo's group not wanting to take a deal like 5/50 and hoping the C's go on to win the championship while he plays at an all star level.  Which in turn might get him a max contract, IMO. Are you willing to go above 5/50 for a PG that can't shoot and supposedly has an 'attitude problem'?

[Bankshot]

Rondo isn't going to get any cheaper as the season goes on.  He is going to break-out this year.  Lock him up now Danny.

I second that!

[Bahku]

The big three could make almost any NBA point guard look good. I think Rondo is a nice player but I would not over commit to him. Wasnt to long ago we had players making large salaries that were contributing very little. If possible I would like to see a sign and trade maybe Rondo and Baby for D Wade. If Rondo is combative and overpaid in the future it could really handicap this team.

Wrong.  If Rondo gets a jumpshot and shoots respectable from the free throw line, his value goes up even more. 

Why do we need to trade someone just because their value is high?  Don't we benefit by keeping, playing him and winning more championships with him?

Because haven't you heard Rondo has an attitude problem.. 

Yeah he knows he's great and he's hard headed, which is just about the case for every great player whoever played in the NBA.

Bill Simmons thinks it's strange that they haven't signed him and his inside sources tell him that Rondo and Doc hate each other.  I mean don't you remember Doc doing what every great coach does ( especially an NBA PG )to every great young talented hard headed player in the league?  No?  Well then maybe Bill and the OP are correct, trade him while his value is the highest...

Are you being sarcastic?  I can't tell.

Who cares what Bill Simmons thinks?

Really ... Simmons' view of the Celtics is far from favorable, and it's been that way for a long time. He's not the masterful "inside source" that everyone thinks he is, or the "homie" most assume. You think Doc can't deal with an "attitude problem?" ... that's what he does best!

If Doc can deal with egos like KG's and Big Baby's, don't you think he can handle Rondo? Doc had a big smile the other night when he said: "Rondo will be here for a long time" ... and you could tell he meant it.

To presume they would let Rondo go because his worth had increased or he had an "attitude problem" is absurd ... if they let him go, they will be doing for a short-term benefit, and it would be very short-sighted ... they will be wishing they hadn't for years to come.

Rondo will be a premier PG in this league long after Wade is retired, and the Celtics will never be in a better spot to make sure he stays dressed in green.

[Bahku]

I would give him up to $11M, if needed ... it's worth it long-term, easily.

[Bulldog!]

I was thinking about who would be our competition to resign Rondo next July for a $60M or more contract that Rondo is looking for. I'm assuming that the salary cap will be around $55M (a little down from this years $57M), so teams would need a 2010 salary cap level of about $44M or less to offer Rondo a $60M or more contract.
Here's my thoughts on the possibilities (approximate salary cap number in parenthesis after each team):

The following teams won't be too intersted since they are pretty set at PG: CHI ($37M plus resign T Thomas), LAC(39M), Minn(37M), NJN (29M).

Hou(43), Atl (45) amd Memphis (43)might be out of the running by resigning their own free agent (Scola, J Johnson and R Gaye).

That leaves MIA (25 M if they pass on J Jones resign), Knicks (27M), OKC (35M) and SAC (40M). I think OKC would rather spend on a big and SAC probably is so bad no one will go there. So, I really worry abut MIA and the the Knicks. Both have enough cap room to sign 2 premier free agents. I can see either (or both) overpaying to get Rondo early in the free agent process to try to entice one the premier free agents (Bosh, Boozer, JJ, Lebron) to come on board - like we did with Ray Allen to get KG.
If Mia could sign Rondo and Boozer, Wade would stay. The Knicks will be desparate and willing to overpay.

I think the $5-8 M that we're likely apart in the negotiations with Rondo is too small to pass up. I say sign him for $55 - 58M/5 yr.   

[jambr380]

I would give him up to $11M, if needed ... it's worth it long-term, easily.

If it comes down to losing him, I would do the 11miill. It would really stink to lose him because of one mill a year. That being said, I really do think 10mill works for both sides and really do think this will get done now...

[dark_lord]

Rondo isn't going to get any cheaper as the season goes on.  He is going to break-out this year.  Lock him up now Danny.

I second that!

3rd!   

[lon3lytoaster]

Rondo isn't going to get any cheaper as the season goes on.  He is going to break-out this year.  Lock him up now Danny.

I second that!

3rd!   

And 4th.

I think that's enough people to really make Danny think 

[jambr380]

You make a pretty good point and that is: all it takes is one other team to want him. Teams like Cleveland or Miami, who may lose their superstars, should definitely be in the running. It's not like Rondo isn't already awesome. And, even though Rondo is no Lebron, he is a nice consolation prize and a better chip to rebuild than almost any other option available.

I just would like to get this thing done now...no one likes waiting.

[Bulldog!]

Also, the PG competition in next years free agent market is pretty limited. The only above average unrestricted PG are Ray Felton and ??Nate Robinson, further adding to Rondo's value.

[Cman]

Also, the PG competition in next years free agent market is pretty limited. The only above average unrestricted PG are Ray Felton and ??Nate Robinson, further adding to Rondo's value.

This is a good point.

But I don't see what people are so worried about.  Worst case scenario -- Celtics pay market value for Rajon Rondo next summer (by matching whatever offers are made).  Actually, worst case scenario is that the Celtics resign Rondo to a max contract now, and Rondo tears all the tendons in both knees and never plays again, but remains on the books for the next 5 years (likelihood of that happening is incredibly small, of course).

[Bulldog!]

If the Celts give him a 5 yr/58-60M contract now, his starting salary for next year is going to be around $10M or a little less (with standard 10% raises). A max contact for someone with his time in the nba is $13.5M this year. It might be a couple hundred thousand less next year. This extra $3M+ per year ain't peanuts.

[BballTim]

Also, the PG competition in next years free agent market is pretty limited. The only above average unrestricted PG are Ray Felton and ??Nate Robinson, further adding to Rondo's value.

This is a good point.

But I don't see what people are so worried about.  Worst case scenario -- Celtics pay market value for Rajon Rondo next summer (by matching whatever offers are made).  Actually, worst case scenario is that the Celtics resign Rondo to a max contract now, and Rondo tears all the tendons in both knees and never plays again, but remains on the books for the next 5 years (likelihood of that happening is incredibly small, of course).

  Aside from the fact that it might cost a few million a year more for Rondo if they wait a year, the worst case is if someone signs him to a deal that the Celts don't want to match (either close to a max deal or something that's possibly frontloaded) so that the Celts don't match and he walks. People assume that the Celts will pay whatever it takes to sign Rondo next summer. If they're willing to go $13M or so next summer why wouldn't they go $10M-$11M now?

[MrTripleDouble10]

Rondo is a above average nba level point guard. If you put him on the knicks and put duhon on the celtics do you think we would be any worse? It seems like he gets knocked to the floor every game sometimes mutiple times in one game. How he plays along with his small frame make him a high risk for injury. Added with his prior combative attitude and a 50+ million dollar contract just doesnt sound too good to me. I only see his value decreasing from here and we could prolly get some nice pieces for him.

Yes, the Celtics would be MUCH worse if you substituted Duhon Straight up for Rondo.


You said it youself, the Celtics could get some nice pieces for him.  Gee, why do you think that is?  Let's put it this way: If any other SINGULAR player on this team goes down for say, 20 games, the Celtics would still win 15 or so.  If Rondo went down for those same 20 games, they win about half.  He's THAT important, like it or not.

[Cman]

Also, the PG competition in next years free agent market is pretty limited. The only above average unrestricted PG are Ray Felton and ??Nate Robinson, further adding to Rondo's value.

This is a good point.

But I don't see what people are so worried about.  Worst case scenario -- Celtics pay market value for Rajon Rondo next summer (by matching whatever offers are made).  Actually, worst case scenario is that the Celtics resign Rondo to a max contract now, and Rondo tears all the tendons in both knees and never plays again, but remains on the books for the next 5 years (likelihood of that happening is incredibly small, of course).

  Aside from the fact that it might cost a few million a year more for Rondo if they wait a year, the worst case is if someone signs him to a deal that the Celts don't want to match (either close to a max deal or something that's possibly frontloaded) so that the Celts don't match and he walks. People assume that the Celts will pay whatever it takes to sign Rondo next summer. If they're willing to go $13M or so next summer why wouldn't they go $10M-$11M now?

They are gambling that he won't get a $13M offer next summer.  It is possible he will get a max contract next summer, of course.  This is all about probabilities.  I don't think the Celtics have "messed up" by not signing Rondo yet.  I do think, however, that the Celtics messed up by bandying about Rondo's name in too many trade rumors this summer. 

Also, we have no idea what Rondo's camp is asking, and what the Celtics are offering.  We can speculate, just like all the sports talking heads are speculating, but we really just don't know.  For example, maybe the Cs ARE offering $11M, but Rondo's camp is holding out for max.