While from a pure basketball move, I'd love to see Nocioni end up here, I'm not so sure it happens. As many have pointed out, Nocioni has 4 years at 7 million a year left on his deal. If I'm Danny Ainge going to Wyc Grousbeck trying to pitch this deal, I ask two questions: 1) what does it do for the C's this year and 2) what does it do for the C's down the road?
Concerning question #1, I'm not sure he helps the C's this year as much as many people think. Even during the regular season, Rondo/Allen/Pierce should put up 100+ mpg. That leaves only 44 minutes or so of backup time between the 1-3 spots. There's absolutely no reason why House and Daniels can't cover all those minutes. And come playoff time when the starters will likely consume 110+ mpg, there's REALLY no reason to think that House and Daniels can't split a whopping 34 mpg. So the question becomes, can/should Danny try to persuade ownership to add 7 million (really 14 million with luxury taxes) so that the C's can have either a nice 9th or 10th man who won't get many minutes unless there's an injury OR a slight upgrade over Marquis Daniels? I don't think so.
Concerning question #2 and the future, what does Nocioni do beyond this year? Well, he may add so much salary that the C's might not use the MLE next year. So Danny then has to ask himself, what's worth more, the MLE or Nocioni? Given what the C's landed this with the MLE, I'd say the MLE.
Furthermore, in many ways the C's are faced with a Posey-like conundrum. Yes, Nocioni is young enough that he won't fade as Posey would've. However, like Ainge insisted with the Posey situation, Nocioni will be a huge burden on this team in the last two years of his deal. Because while you might be able to argue he has value to the team now, 3 years from now when the team's rebuilding, the C's will really have no use for a backup swingman making 7 million a year.
I just don't see how he works from a practical standpoint. At best he's an expensive upgrade over Daniels or House that only possibly makes the team better. At worst he's a drain on the team's finances that hurts their ability to acquire other talent over the next few years.