2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Rondo2287]

Ok, well I think the fact that we are arguing over a decrease in 2 points of a scoring average really is a tribute to how close our teams are.  Personally I think neither of us would trying this hard if we didnt see it as a really close mathchup.  I really cant blame anybody if they vote either way on this one.  Although....Vote Toronto!

[Rondo2287]

And lets not forget the fact that your leading scorer drops his average 6 points against Artest!

[nickagneta]

I think, and have said this to you already Rondo. the starting front courts as a group, are a toss up. Okafor, Bynum and Melo in their current states of game versus Artest, Garnett and Camby, in their current state of games, is fairly close when looking at them as units. A healthy Bynum next year will give a declinging Camby fits. Garnett, healthy, will outplay Okafor. Melo and Artest is a bit of a push with Melo getting the slight advantage.

For that reason I look elsewhere.

I think the Davis/Brewer backcourt is better defensively and is a much better compliment to their front court and I think slightly better offensively than the Toronto back court. And while Ilgauskas is a great weapon off the bench, I don't like Finley and Belinelli. Meanwhile Parker Pargo and Smith I really like and love the fact that Okafor can slip into the backup center role while Smith backs up the PF role.

[Rondo2287]

Nick thats cool, you cant win them all, I personally think when you factor in the Finley parker matchup the Backcourt really is a draw, and I think I have a huge edge in the frontcourt especially off the bench up there.  But thats what makes this game so fun.  So I appreciate your thoughts

[indeedproceed]

Again man, me cherrypicking one game is just as fair as you only looking at numbers from boston.  When he chose not to take as much of offensive burden.  Thats why I am looking at the ballance of their career matchup.  

Again I think the brewer matchup is a good one for you, but I think this one is definitly a big one in my favor

Taking games just from the last two years (since Okafor has only been in the league for what, 4, 5 years? Isn't cherry picking. Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here, and thus comparing only the last 2 years of stats makes more sense than looking at their entire body of work.

I wonder how Camby does on Bynum?

[Rondo2287]

Again man, me cherrypicking one game is just as fair as you only looking at numbers from boston.  When he chose not to take as much of offensive burden.  Thats why I am looking at the ballance of their career matchup.  

Again I think the brewer matchup is a good one for you, but I think this one is definitly a big one in my favor

Taking games just from the last two years (since Okafor has only been in the league for what, 4, 5 years? Isn't cherry picking. Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here, and thus comparing only the last 2 years of stats makes more sense than looking at their entire body of work.

I wonder how Camby does on Bynum?

Bynum vs Camby(9 Games)Bynum 6-3
Camby: 10 pts, 14 rbs, 2ass, 2.7 BlK
Bynum: 7.9 pts, 6.6 Rbs, .9 ass, 2.2 Blk

And I understand that Okafor is getting better.  But you have to expect production to go down when a player is a number one scoring option to a number two or 1a. 

[Roy Hobbs]

Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here

And I understand that Okafor is getting better. 

You think so?  A little off topic, but I was reading a blurb the other day saying the problem with Emeka Okafor is that he hasn't really progressed since his rookie year (when he won ROY).   Looking at his stats, that arguably is the case.   The only area where he's really gotten appreciably better is FG%.  All the other stats have either stayed level, or declined (after a spike in blocks two years ago that actually hurt Okafor's defensive rating).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okafoem01.html

[indeedproceed]

Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here

And I understand that Okafor is getting better. 

You think so?  A little off topic, but I was reading a blurb the other day saying the problem with Emeka Okafor is that he hasn't really progressed since his rookie year (when he won ROY).   Looking at his stats, that arguably is the case.   The only area where he's really gotten appreciably better is FG%.  All the other stats have either stayed level, or declined (after a spike in blocks two years ago that actually hurt Okafor's defensive rating).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okafoem01.html

Defensively. his man defense has gotten way better. I think his offensive game peaked when he was 17

[nickagneta]

Again man, me cherrypicking one game is just as fair as you only looking at numbers from boston.  When he chose not to take as much of offensive burden.  Thats why I am looking at the ballance of their career matchup.  

Again I think the brewer matchup is a good one for you, but I think this one is definitely a big one in my favor

Taking games just from the last two years (since Okafor has only been in the league for what, 4, 5 years? Isn't cherry picking. Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here, and thus comparing only the last 2 years of stats makes more sense than looking at their entire body of work.

I wonder how Camby does on Bynum?

Bynum vs Camby(9 Games)Bynum 6-3
Camby: 10 pts, 14 rbs, 2ass, 2.7 BlK
Bynum: 7.9 pts, 6.6 Rbs, .9 ass, 2.2 Blk

And I understand that Okafor is getting better.  But you have to expect production to go down when a player is a number one scoring option to a number two or 1a. 

Again, Rondo, what some people are trying to say about your numbers and what I said in my post is look at their current games.

Bynum vs Camby has happened 3 times since the beginning of the 2007-08 season and the numbers are

Bynum 7.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.67 BPG, 10-16 .5625 FG%
Camby 4.3 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.67 BPG,  5-17 .2941 FG%

Current games.

Do you really think trend is going to get better as Bynum stays healthy and improves and Camby grows older and declines while playing behind Griffin and Kaman?

This is why people are saying look at the recent KG vs Okafor numbers. I hate to admit it but KG is not nearly as dominating as he once was, even giving in to the fact that he is sacrificing some games. Okafor's game is growing and now he will be playing with the best PG in the league.

The more I think about it the more I think the front court instead of a push might be headed in Philly's direction.

[Rondo2287]

Ok, but his rebound numbers are still better, and Bynum has yet to stay healthy.  And with a team that is more offensively balanced like Denver or, Toronto in this case his numbers were better. 

This isnt fantasy BBALL this is how would these players do in the system I have constructed so Him playing behind Kaman doesnt really effect me right?

[Fafnir]

Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here

And I understand that Okafor is getting better. 

You think so?  A little off topic, but I was reading a blurb the other day saying the problem with Emeka Okafor is that he hasn't really progressed since his rookie year (when he won ROY).   Looking at his stats, that arguably is the case.   The only area where he's really gotten appreciably better is FG%.  All the other stats have either stayed level, or declined (after a spike in blocks two years ago that actually hurt Okafor's defensive rating).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okafoem01.html

Okafor came into the league a good player, but you're right he hasn't changed his game much in the NBA.

[Rondo2287]

And again, this is an extremely close matchup which is why there is alot more competition here than there has been for some other matchups, so I really cant blame anybody out there for voting for either team. 

[KCattheStripe]

Saying Okafor became a much better player at age 23 is pretty fair here

And I understand that Okafor is getting better. 

You think so?  A little off topic, but I was reading a blurb the other day saying the problem with Emeka Okafor is that he hasn't really progressed since his rookie year (when he won ROY).   Looking at his stats, that arguably is the case.   The only area where he's really gotten appreciably better is FG%.  All the other stats have either stayed level, or declined (after a spike in blocks two years ago that actually hurt Okafor's defensive rating).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okafoem01.html

I'm curious as to why hid FGA has dipped while his percentage has gone up.

[nickagneta]

Ok, but his rebound numbers are still better, and Bynum has yet to stay healthy.  And with a team that is more offensively balanced like Denver or, Toronto in this case his numbers were better. 

This isnt fantasy BBALL this is how would these players do in the system I have constructed so Him playing behind Kaman doesnt really effect me right?

The point is not that this is fantasy basketball but if we look at this retroactively Camby's numbers are going to get worse. So you are willing to include numbers for the comparison from 4-5 years ago even though players are playing at different levels than they were years ago but if I say the future numbers are going to be bad, you want to go into the hypothetical.

I think it's fair that you compare Melo and Artest because both are of a similar age and similar experience. But Camby/Bynum and KG/Okafor are situations where an aging star is being compared to a relatively young and inexperienced player.

So I think it's fair that we look at the CBNBA as happening in the future and the numbers they are going to put up as the numbers they put up next year, a year where Camby and Ilgauskas may be playing much less minutes.

[Rondo2287]

Ok, but his rebound numbers are still better, and Bynum has yet to stay healthy.  And with a team that is more offensively balanced like Denver or, Toronto in this case his numbers were better. 

This isnt fantasy BBALL this is how would these players do in the system I have constructed so Him playing behind Kaman doesnt really effect me right?

The point is not that this is fantasy basketball but if we look at this retroactively Camby's numbers are going to get worse. So you are willing to include numbers for the comparison from 4-5 years ago even though players are playing at different levels than they were years ago but if I say the future numbers are going to be bad, you want to go into the hypothetical.

I think it's fair that you compare Melo and Artest because both are of a similar age and similar experience. But Camby/Bynum and KG/Okafor are situations where an aging star is being compared to a relatively young and inexperienced player.

So I think it's fair that we look at the CBNBA as happening in the future and the numbers they are going to put up as the numbers they put up next year, a year where Camby and Ilgauskas may be playing much less minutes.

Z will but not Camby, Camby is starting in my system and very well may start for clippers