ORLANDO vs. PHILDELPHIAHere's how we see this series matching up/playing out:
BACKCOURT PHI - Baron Davis/Ronnie Brewer/Janero Pargo/Anthony Parker
ORL - Kirk Hinrich/Jason Richardson/Aaron Afflalo/Telfair
Baron Davis is probably the biggest X-factor in the series. We saw how he led the GSW to the upset of DAL. His biggest advantages vs. other PGs are quickness and his size. His size has also led to his body breaking down over long seasons --- which is why he's an X factor. Hinrich though is one of the better defensive PGs in the league and will make Davis work for every point(hopefully tiring Diddy downa bit). IIRC, Davis was running circles around a very young Devin Harris and Jason Terry in the DAL series. Hinrich is a tougher foe. Slight advantage PHI.
Don't forget that Jason Richardson was reason 1A why the Warriors upset the Mavericks. Richardson is careeer 19 ppg scorer and can score inside and out. I think folks are forgetting how dynamic an offensive weapon Richardson is b/c he's been in CHA and in a mess in PHO the last 2 years. Like Hinrich, Brewer is a very talented defender but still developing as a scorer. Parker helps make up for some of that scoring deficit, but he's 33 years old and will have a tough time vs. the younger, more athletic Afflalo. Slight (but larger) advantage ORL.
These backcourts are mirror images of each other --- a dynamic scorer paired with a strong defender.
SMALL FORWARD PHI - Melo
ORL - Lebron
That each small forward is known by a single name says alot about this epic matchup. How you size this up is about percentages and probability.
Melo & Lebron light it up in this series. Bird vs. Nique, Pierce vs. Lebron. What sets them apart, IMO, is that there's a 60% chance that Melo shuts down Lebron for any significant stretch but a 80% chance Lebron, one of the leagues better defenders, can shut down Melo for a half or a game.
In an tight, even series like this those little advantages make all the difference. For example:
I disagree that Carmello will disappear in the playoffs, though. Here's how he did against Kobe and the Lakers: 39 points, 31 points, 21 points, 15 points, 31 points, 25 points.
What's missing here is that while Melo finished with 21 points in the pivotal Game 3 (DEN had stolen homecourt and could really have put LA on it's heels), he was nearly non-existent in the 1st half and shot 30% for the Game. I remember watching that game thinking about half way through the 1st half "If DEN loses this game they lose the series.... If Melo could just show up for part of the 1st half... please god let the Lakers lose". Didn't happen. DEN made it a series but the momentum turned on that game.
Melo is a TREMENDOUS player, but he has shown (though with less frequency) the possibility of disappearing. And unlike Lebron he contributes less when his shot isn't going. Small edge ORL.
BIG MEN PHI - Emeka Okafor/Andrew Bynum (backups: Joe Smith & Francisco Elson)
ORL - Charlier Villanueva/Marc Gasol (backups: Anderson Varejao, Jeff Foster, Darrell Arthur, Joel Anthony)
Villanueva is the best scorer of the bunch here, Okafor the strongest rebounder. Some of that rebounding is diminished with Villanueva playing away from the basket more than most PFs Okafor guards.
Bynum has a slight advantage over Gasol (and may (or may not) have a higher ceiling but that matters not in a 7-game series). But they're remarkably similar players. Bynum is a slightly better defender, Gasol is little tougher and more mobile (and less injury prone).
In the playoffs, the games slow down, and foul trouble becomes a much bigger issue -- especially with bigs helping out with Lebron and Melo going to the hoop. Frontcourt foul trouble will be a consistent issue throughout this series. This is where ORL has a HUGE advantage. If I were to rank the backup bigs:
1. Varejao - ORL
2. Foster - ORL
3. Smith - PHI
4. Arthur - ORL
5. Elson - PHI
5a. Anthony - ORL
Varejao is energy and defense and little scoring, he'll come in and give Bynum fits. Smith and Elson are 33 and 32 respectively, as is Jeff Foster. However Foster played as many minutes as Elson and Smith COMBINED last year. Smith has played 12,000 more minutes and nearly 300 more games than Foster and is clearly not the player he once was. He can't play 25 mpg throughout as series --- which we think he will have to.
Darrell Arthur can come in and score and defend and use his 6 fouls, when needed. And I would argue that Anthony (our 6th big) is as good as Francisco Elson at this point. There's not a way PHI can survive 2-3 games where either Bynum or Okafor are in foul trouble...an almost certainty in a tight series like this.
SCORINGWe're not asking anyone to do anything they can't scoring wise --- these add up to 93 ppg. Given our great man defenders at the PG & SF spots, and defensive depth up front, we will have no problem holding a playoff opponent to 89-91 ppg.
Lebron - 25
Richardson - 18
Hinrich - 11
Villanueva - 9
Gasol - 10
Varejao - 8
Foster - 6
Telfair - 3
Afflalo - 3
SUMMARY 7 game series. Maybe then goes to 8 OTs
Like i said, I have PHI as the #2 team in the East and would be a favorite to win it all if they get past ORL.
But the 3 factors --- not huge ones, but in a close series there are no huge factors --- that we think lead to an ORL victory are:
(1) a greater likelihood of Lebron shutting down Melo for one game (and/or Melo disappearing for a critical half) than the other way around. "Shutting down" here is a relative term ... something like Melo scoring 20 pts on 25 shots and being generally taken out of the flow of the game (like Game 3 in DEN vs. LA last year)
(2) frontline depth that allows ORL to absorb foul trouble/injuries that come with a tough series. ORL's frontline defenders can be more aggressive and will get more rest througout the game.
(3) ORL has homecourt advantage, game 7 is in Orlando.
Topic: 2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future (Read 675112 times)