2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Edgar]

Shaq (i will say this is a tie even if i give all the upper hand to shaq) = C. Bosh,
Manu > J. Johnson, 1
Redd = M. Ellis,
Miller >>  A. Randolph,3
Shard >> G. Hill, 5
J Oneil >> A. Nocioni,7
Delonte > D.J. Augustin,8
QRoss  > E. Clark, 9
Gomes > D. Blair, 10
Turiaf >  D. Andersen,11
Bibby>>M. Thornton,13
dudley = L. Powe,


13 pluses and I am going sleep to rest for WCF

[Gainesville Celtic]

For the record I doubt Elson will see much playing time at all.  Our Center minutes will be solely taken up by Bynum and Okafor with Okafor's minutes being about 66% PF 34% C.  While Tim Thomas will off the bench and be a Villanueva-esque type player if we need to space the floor.  Also if we went smaller, we could put Balkman at the 4 as well.

Orlando you feel Richardson is a bigger advantage over our SG's but I don't see it, Brewer has played him to a stand still, in their last meeting Brewer held Richardson to 4 points.  While Parker shoots at a high percentage, and Pargo can certainly light it up (as he is describe as Ben Gordon-lite).  With our very good defenders at the SG position, who is going to score the basketball when LeBron sits down?

Nice slight of hand KWHIT10

in their last meeting Brewer held Richardson to 4 points

this is true.

of course 3 days earlier Brewer "held" Richardson to 21 points (on 9 of 16 shooting). in the 2 games vs. Brewer & the Jazz the year before, Brewer "held" Richardson to 26 pts (on 8 of 16 shooting) and 24 points (on 8 of 14 shooting).

4 game average vs. Brewer over the last 2 years: 18.8 ppg
Total scoring average over the last 2 years (154 gms): 19.4 ppg


I don't know how to answer the question "who else is going to score besides Lebron" any clearer than:

JASON RICHARDSON (19.4 ppg (2007-2009); 18.6 ppg (career); 19.1 ppg (playoffs, 11 gm))

Well if you average his two scoring values from last year they played pretty evenly.  Also I wouldn't hold much to the matchups prior to that as Brewer was just entering the league and wouldn't expect him to be as good as he is now.  Brewer should be better than last year, not too sure Richardson will get any better than what we've already seen.

Riiiiight --- because the smaller the sample size the more glaring any one bad sample is.... It's like saying because Richardson held Brewer scoreless for a 6 minute stretch he'll do that for a  whole game.

Brewer has been the starter for the last 2 years -- i can see that you would want to toss those out since it disproves your contention that Brewer will shut down JRichardson. Richardson had 1 bad game, and 3 above average games which average out to his career scoring numbers. No trickeration with stats there.

(If you insist on that logic, you'll have to account for the fact that in their last meeting Lebron scored 33 and held Melo to 13 measly points; Factor in the 22 vs. 18 the previous meeting and for the season: Lebron 27.5 ppg, Melo 15.5 ppg)

And that Brewer will get better --- which I agree with --- doesn't help him in *this* 7 game series. You could argue that he'll be better

[Roy Hobbs]

P.S. Anthony Randolph is going to be fine, he's highly active, very long, rebounds and blocks shots at a thrilling rate. If he's struggling in any particular game we'll let Andres Nocioni grab and bump Lewis for 20 minutes, rattle his cage.

I still think you're being a little shifty, Wiggle.

On Edgar's team, he's got three starters in his front court:

Shaq

Jermaine

Rashard

Bosh can't guard Shaq.  Randolph can't guard Jermaine.  And Hill can't keep up with Rashard.  It doesn't necessarily matter how Bosh does against Jermaine, because unless you're putting Randolph on Shaq, it won't matter.  Also, you can't really double Shaq, because Edgar's team is full of great shooters.

So, say Shaq plays 30 minutes (which seems too few for the playoffs, but who knows what Edgar is thinking?)  Bosh is going to play, what, 40?  Is that 10 minutes where Bosh is guarded by a very good defender like Jermaine O'Neal really going to make up the difference?

One of your supporters, who has publicly boosted your team in the past, admitted in his vote that this series will be over in five games.  I think that's the only objective way to see it.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Yet another of the vastly underrated Western squads.

I still argue that San Antonio didn't get their due.

Starting Chris Wilcox at center is an even tougher sell than Bosh/Randolph. But Derrick Rose, Richard Hamilton, Jarrett Jack is one of the best guard rotations in the league isn't it? And Kirilenko/Odom is worth talking about.

A very deep Western Conference.

[Roy Hobbs]

Shaq (i will say this is a tie even if i give all the upper hand to shaq) = C. Bosh,
Manu > J. Johnson, 1
Redd = M. Ellis,
Miller >>  A. Randolph,3
Shard >> G. Hill, 5
J Oneil >> A. Nocioni,7
Delonte > D.J. Augustin,8
QRoss  > E. Clark, 9
Gomes > D. Blair, 10
Turiaf >  D. Andersen,11
Bibby>>M. Thornton,13
dudley = L. Powe,


13 pluses and I am going sleep to rest for WCF

I'd probably rank it as:

Shaq > C. Bosh (look at the numbers)
Redd > J. Johnson (look at the numbers)
J.O. > A. Randolph (at worst, J.O.'s defense trumps)
Bibby < Monta Ellis (Tough matchup for Edgar)
Rashard > G. Hill
Manu >>  ?  Who is Houston's backup SG?
Miller >  D. Andersen
Delonte >= D.J. Augustin
Gomes = Nocioni
Turiaf > Blair

[KCattheStripe]

But Derrick Rose, Richard Hamilton, Jarrett Jack is one of the best guard rotations in the league isn't it?

Not even in their own conference. But then again, you crazy.  

[Edgar]

Just remembering the faces of the champ



6th to 10th man



11th to 13th



14th and 15th on NBDL




Sent overseas under team managment

[Roy Hobbs]

Yet another of the vastly underrated Western squads.

I still argue that San Antonio didn't get their due.

Starting Chris Wilcox at center is an even tougher sell than Bosh/Randolph. But Derrick Rose, Richard Hamilton, Jarrett Jack is one of the best guard rotations in the league isn't it? And Kirilenko/Odom is worth talking about.

A very deep Western Conference.

I didn't like Wilcox and Reggie Evans at the center slot, and there's something about the Odom / AK47 combo I'm not in love with.  They're probably deserved better than they got, but the West had at least 10 teams most people would expect to see in the playoffs.

[Rondo2287]

DONT VOTE FOR THE BIG NAMES AND HYPE VOTE FOR THE BETTER TEAM

Brief look at a possible Matchup with Chicago.
I love my matchups on the frontline as well as my matchup of Artest and Bell, Bell cannot cover a bigger artest, its as simple as that.  And on the Defensive end I plan on matching up Garcia on Bell since Bell really is only a threat from the Perimeter and matching up Artest on Martin.

Garnett vs Pau
Garnett leads 15-6
Ganett-24 ppg, 13.4 Rpg, 5.1 Ass, 1.3 ste, 1.8 blk
Gasol- 18 ppg, 8 rpb, 2.6 ass, .7 steals, 1.6 blk

Camby vs Horford
Camby leads 2-1
Camby 11 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 4.3 Ass, 1.7 st, 1.7 blk
Horford 11.3ppg, 8 rpg, 2.3 ass, 2.3 st, 1.0 blk

Artest Vs Bell
Artest leads 8-7
Artest 16 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 ass, 2.7 st, .7 blk
Bell 9.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 ass, .9 stl, .3 blk

Martin and Garcia never played eachother because they are on the same team.

Paul vs Miller
Paul leads 3-5
Miller 19ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.4 Ass, 1.1 stl, .3 blk
Paul   15 ppg, 5.4,    8.4 ass, 3.1 stl, .1 blk

So obviously chris Paul outclasses Miller with the Assists and Steals, but its not as much of a gap as people might think.


But for An offensive powerhouse team, My team leads the PPG in the one on one matchups in 4 of the 5 starting spots.  A real testament to the Defense I have constructed here I believe.


Comparing Benches

Chicago- Ryan Anderson, Keith Bogans, Deshawn Stevenson, Hilton Armstrong

Toronto- Big Z, Hakim Warrick, Michael Finley, Marco Belinelli


Guys dont forget. We lost to Orlando because our big man rotation included Miki Moore.  Also Pietrus Carved up the Celtics off the bench.  Dont you see the same thing happening here?

Vote For Defense and the Better team Vote Toronto!

[The Walker Wiggle]

I still think you're being a little shifty, Wiggle.

On Edgar's team, he's got three starters in his front court:

Shaq

Jermaine

Rashard

Bosh can't guard Shaq.  Randolph can't guard Jermaine.  And Hill can't keep up with Rashard.  It doesn't necessarily matter how Bosh does against Jermaine, because unless you're putting Randolph on Shaq, it won't matter.  Also, you can't really double Shaq, because Edgar's team is full of great shooters.

So, say Shaq plays 30 minutes (which seems too few for the playoffs, but who knows what Edgar is thinking?)  Bosh is going to play, what, 40?  Is that 10 minutes where Bosh is guarded by a very good defender like Jermaine O'Neal really going to make up the difference?

One of your supporters, who has publicly boosted your team in the past, admitted in his vote that this series will be over in five games.  I think that's the only objective way to see it.

Well far be it for me to be unreasonable  . But here are some counter arguments.

1. You are doing plenty of tap dancing yourself to avoid admitting that Bibby and Redd are one of, if not the worst, defensive starting back court in the league.

1a. Mike Bibby can't defend Ellis any more successively than Bosh can O'Neal. Monta getting in to the lane at will puts pressure on Redd and Lewis and O'Neal that they can ill afford.

2. Portland, a team that looks to put up a lot of 3 point shots, can't defend Houston in transition. We are quicker at every single position. The team that carries an advantage in fast break points usually carries the day.

3. Anthony Randolph will be fine. Jermaine O'Neal is not the threat you make him out to be.

In last years playoffs he averaged 13.3 points and 4.5 rebounds.

And this time he won't have a height advantage. It's your PF/C who is going to have a hard time matching my PF/C's production. Mark my words.

3a. Houston's starting five is not only better defensively they are better on the glass. Why doesn't an edge in rebounding matter?

4. I expect we'll see Shaq play closer to 25 mpg this season. But that's a hunch.

[Gainesville Celtic]

CHI/TOR -- Toronto (7 games)

I'll post my why's on the CHI/TOR tilt in the analysis thread.

I've been pretty consistent in my critique of CHI's team and those reasons are the same why I think TOR wins this series in 7 games (a 10 point win in game 7).

IMO, Raja Bell & the other SG's CHICAGO has playing SF simply can't guard Artest (a good offensive player).

And with KG/Camby playing P. Gasol/Horford to a draw, TOR's superior big man depth makes a big difference.

CP3 has an advantage over Andre Miller, but Miller can/will post CP3 up...Garcia's length will give Kev. Martin some problems, but Martin will outperform him. I could see Artest playing some mins. vs. Martin too.

The wild card is that CP3 could make a jump, go crazy and will the Bulls to victory. I don't see KG letting that happen though.

Good matchup, but Toronto wins IMO... TP for all the East teams left.

[Rondo2287]

GC, How do you see this as a draw?  I see it as a huge advantage for my club

Garnett vs Pau
Garnett leads 15-6
Ganett-24 ppg, 13.4 Rpg, 5.1 Ass, 1.3 ste, 1.8 blk
Gasol- 18 ppg, 8 rpb, 2.6 ass, .7 steals, 1.6 blk

Camby vs Horford
Camby leads 2-1
Camby 11 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 4.3 Ass, 1.7 st, 1.7 blk
Horford 11.3ppg, 8 rpg, 2.3 ass, 2.3 st, 1.0 blk

[Kwhit10]

JASON RICHARDSON (19.4 ppg (2007-2009); 18.6 ppg (career); 19.1 ppg (playoffs, 11 gm))

Isn't this also misleading? 

Trying to take Richardsons stats from when he was the number one option on a crappy team.

Don't you think his 16.4ppg while he played for the Steve Nash led uptempo Phoenix Suns is still being optimistic?

[indeedproceed]

JASON RICHARDSON (19.4 ppg (2007-2009); 18.6 ppg (career); 19.1 ppg (playoffs, 11 gm))

Isn't this also misleading? 

Trying to take Richardsons stats from when he was the number one option on a crappy team.

Don't you think his 16.4ppg while he played for the Steve Nash led uptempo Phoenix Suns is still being optimistic?

I don't think I'd qualify it as optimistic. I think you have to look at Cleveland's stats this year, and I think 28pts from bron, 17 from jrich, 12 from Charlie V, and 8-10 from Gasol is very realistic.

[nickagneta]

While I think Portland would crush Houston I will say I think you Portland guys(oops, sorry, guy) are overplaying just how big a difference there is in the teams. Portland will win and fast, 4 or 5, but, Manu is not better than Joe Johnson and Dudley is not as good as Leon Powe and some of Edgar's other matchups make no sense.

If Portland throws their weight and size around and if they can be healthy and have games similar to what they have had before they should win. That said Bosh and Johnson are stars in their prime. Stars that are better than Rashard Lewis' star, who I see as slightly lower level of player as those two. Anthony Randolph is the real deal, I saw a lot of GSW last year(don't ask me why they are my son's 2nd favorite team) and he is going to be a stud. Think an undeveloped Larry Nance with higher upside for those that remember Nance.

Portland is relying on a lot of factors going right to be a championship contender. I think with this collection at least two of your top 12 will have serious injury time out and I think 2 more will have serious game decline that you are not anticipating. They have enough to beat Houston this year. If this was a keeper league, Houston would destroy Portland the year after.