2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Lucky17]

Doesn't the Houston backcourt score 50 (or more) a night vs. Portland? I see no way how Bibby stays in front of Ellis, and Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson. Manu's ankles are swelling at the mere thought of trying to contain either of those two.

[The Walker Wiggle]

While I think Portland would crush Houston I will say I think you Portland guys(oops, sorry, guy) are overplaying just how big a difference there is in the teams. Portland will win and fast, 4 or 5, but, Manu is not better than Joe Johnson and Dudley is not as good as Leon Powe and some of Edgar's other matchups make no sense.

If Portland throws their weight and size around and if they can be healthy and have games similar to what they have had before they should win. That said Bosh and Johnson are stars in their prime. Stars that are better than Rashard Lewis' star, who I see as slightly lower level of player as those two. Anthony Randolph is the real deal, I saw a lot of GSW last year(don't ask me why they are my son's 2nd favorite team) and he is going to be a stud. Think an undeveloped Larry Nance with higher upside for those that remember Nance.

Nick, at this point I'm just trying to get you to stop using the word "crush." 

So let's breakdown the vaunted "weight and size" advantage.

Jermaine O’Neal 6.4 rpg
Rashard Lewis 5.7 rpg
Shaquille O’Neal 8.4 rpg
Michael Redd 4.3 rpg (07-08)
Mike Bibby 3.5 rpg

28.3 rpg

Anthony Randolph 8.5 rpg (as a starter)
Grant Hill 4.9 rpg
Chris Bosh 10.0 rpg
Joe Johnson 4.4 rpg
Monta Ellis 5.0 rpg (07-08)

32.8 rpg

What do you say to that Nick? Because that doesn't scream 4-1 loss to me.

Advantage on the glass. Advantage in fast break points. Advantage at the charity stripe. These are the factors, not bench depth, that usually determine the winners of a playoff series.

PS The Nance comparison is interesting. First time I have heard that. & Thanks for you thoughts regardless. You've been a great rival.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Doesn't the Houston backcourt score 50 (or more) a night vs. Portland? I see no way how Bibby stays in front of Ellis, and Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson. Manu's ankles are swelling at the mere thought of trying to contain either of those two.

Maybe more than 50.

3-4-2008 (The last time our two point guards met.)

Monta Ellis 20 points .526 FG% 7 REB 4 AST 3 STL 1 BLK 2 TO
Mike Bibby 5 points .286 FG% 3 REB 6 AST 1 STL 0 BLK 3 TO

Bibby's defensive troubles on the perimeter got so bad last season that Woodson tried having the 6'2" Bibby guard opposing teams small forwards but that only left him exposed on post ups...

[Gainesville Celtic]

GC, How do you see this as a draw?  I see it as a huge advantage for my club

Garnett vs Pau
Garnett leads 15-6
Ganett-24 ppg, 13.4 Rpg, 5.1 Ass, 1.3 ste, 1.8 blk
Gasol- 18 ppg, 8 rpb, 2.6 ass, .7 steals, 1.6 blk

Camby vs Horford
Camby leads 2-1
Camby 11 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 4.3 Ass, 1.7 st, 1.7 blk
Horford 11.3ppg, 8 rpg, 2.3 ass, 2.3 st, 1.0 blk

Draw b/c i like Horford a little better than Camby physically at this point. KG is a better than Gasol. But CHI has a better PG setting them up.

I'm not sold on head-to-head as *the* determining factor b/c there are 4 other guys on the court.

what do you want? i picked TOR, sheeesh...

[Roy Hobbs]

Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson.

I see why Hoyo gets so upset that nobody reads posts on here.  Doesn't actual -- rather than theoretical -- performance count for anything? 

Head to head, Redd has outscored Johnson 11 of the past 12 times.  Isn't that the point of the game?  To score more than your opponent?  In 17 career games, Johnson is averaging 16.0 points per game against Redd.  The last time they met, in late January, Johnson scored 9 points.  Redd has held Johnson to 15 or less in 8 of their past 12 meetings.

But, regardless of the facts, people will continue to underrate Michael Redd.  Obviously, he's much worse than Johnson.  Why?  Conventional wisdom, rather than actual performances in actual games.

[Rondo2287]

GC, How do you see this as a draw?  I see it as a huge advantage for my club

Garnett vs Pau
Garnett leads 15-6
Ganett-24 ppg, 13.4 Rpg, 5.1 Ass, 1.3 ste, 1.8 blk
Gasol- 18 ppg, 8 rpb, 2.6 ass, .7 steals, 1.6 blk

Camby vs Horford
Camby leads 2-1
Camby 11 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 4.3 Ass, 1.7 st, 1.7 blk
Horford 11.3ppg, 8 rpg, 2.3 ass, 2.3 st, 1.0 blk

Draw b/c i like Horford a little better than Camby physically at this point. KG is a better than Gasol. But CHI has a better PG setting them up.

I'm not sold on head-to-head as *the* determining factor b/c there are 4 other guys on the court.

what do you want? i picked TOR, sheeesh...

Well we do agree on one thing, Horford is wider than Camby.  However if Wide were a plus BBD never would have taken this long to have break out season!  I just think that Cambys rebounding edge really isnt a coincidence.  to average 5 more bounds is a sizeable advantage IMO

[Gainesville Celtic]

JASON RICHARDSON (19.4 ppg (2007-2009); 18.6 ppg (career); 19.1 ppg (playoffs, 11 gm))

Isn't this also misleading? 

Trying to take Richardsons stats from when he was the number one option on a crappy team.

Don't you think his 16.4ppg while he played for the Steve Nash led uptempo Phoenix Suns is still being optimistic?

Honestly, no... I listed all Richardson's stats: last 2 years, career, his 1 playoff run....

I think most would agree that the Suns team that Richardson joined -- 10-15 games in, so no training camp, etc --- was pretty dysfunctional. There's a reason the shipped off Shaq.

If Richardson scores only 16 ppg this season again -- with no Shaq and a full training camp -- I'll cede the East to you. 

[The Walker Wiggle]

Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson.

I see why Hoyo gets so upset that nobody reads posts on here.  Doesn't actual -- rather than theoretical -- performance count for anything? 

Head to head, Redd has outscored Johnson 11 of the past 12 times.  Isn't that the point of the game?  To score more than your opponent?  In 17 career games, Johnson is averaging 16.0 points per game against Redd.  The last time they met, in late January, Johnson scored 9 points.  Redd has held Johnson to 15 or less in 8 of their past 12 meetings.

But, regardless of the facts, people will continue to underrate Michael Redd.  Obviously, he's much worse than Johnson.  Why?  Conventional wisdom, rather than actual performances in actual games.

I've been reading as much as I can manage, it's daunting, and I'll  admit that Redd has gotten the better of Johnson in their match-ups. Except for a massive 5.3 apg to 2.5 apg edge that you failed to mention, and Johnson's far better 3PT%, .369 vs .289. Color me surprised.

But the comparison isn't entirely fair because Redd saves up his energy by sitting out 3-4 of the Milwaukee/Atlanta games...

Now if we can only get everyone to acknowledge Houston's rebounding advantage, Roy!

[Roy Hobbs]

Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson.

I see why Hoyo gets so upset that nobody reads posts on here.  Doesn't actual -- rather than theoretical -- performance count for anything? 

Head to head, Redd has outscored Johnson 11 of the past 12 times.  Isn't that the point of the game?  To score more than your opponent?  In 17 career games, Johnson is averaging 16.0 points per game against Redd.  The last time they met, in late January, Johnson scored 9 points.  Redd has held Johnson to 15 or less in 8 of their past 12 meetings.

But, regardless of the facts, people will continue to underrate Michael Redd.  Obviously, he's much worse than Johnson.  Why?  Conventional wisdom, rather than actual performances in actual games.

I've been reading as much as I can manage, it's daunting, and I'll  admit that Redd has gotten the better of Johnson in their match-ups. Except for a massive 5.3 apg to 2.5 apg edge that you failed to mention, and Johnson's far better 3PT%, .369 vs .289. Color me surprised.

But the comparison isn't entirely fair because Redd saves up his energy by sitting out 3-4 of the Milwaukee/Atlanta games...

Now if we can only get everyone to acknowledge Houston's rebounding advantage, Roy!

And Redd leads in overall FG%, FT%, FTA and rebounds.  Also, I'm not sure why anybody would be surprised by the assists advantage; Johnson is more of a ball-handler.  However, the contention was that "Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson".  Actual games say that not only has Redd contained Johnson, he's beat him handily. 

[Lucky17]

Redd lacks the strength to contain the bigger and quicker Johnson.

I see why Hoyo gets so upset that nobody reads posts on here.  Doesn't actual -- rather than theoretical -- performance count for anything? 

Head to head, Redd has outscored Johnson 11 of the past 12 times.  Isn't that the point of the game?  To score more than your opponent?  In 17 career games, Johnson is averaging 16.0 points per game against Redd.  The last time they met, in late January, Johnson scored 9 points.  Redd has held Johnson to 15 or less in 8 of their past 12 meetings.

But, regardless of the facts, people will continue to underrate Michael Redd.  Obviously, he's much worse than Johnson.  Why?  Conventional wisdom, rather than actual performances in actual games.

How many of those games were after Redd's latest knee injury? Redd is 20-25 pounds lighter than Johnson, and is coming off of major reconstructive surgery. I have a right to question Redd's ability to last against a defensive assignment that ought to be stronger and quicker than him.

BTW, this is why I'm campaigning for a revote at the All-Star break, so we can actually see how players behave this season.

[Roy Hobbs]

BTW, this is why I'm campaigning for a revote at the All-Star break, so we can actually see how players behave this season.

That's what's really going to show off which teams were best, and which ones were right about their players.  Of course, after the season would be even better.  Then, Edgar's masterpiece will truly shine, as Shaq will have just shut down Howard in the playoffs (despite a valiant effort from Rashard), and Manu will have led the Spurs to the NBA Finals (where they lose to a very good Celtics team).

As for Redd, I just don't think the "Johnson is bigger and stronger" argument holds up.  If it did, I think the results would have shown themselves by now.

(And, to start the hype machine for Edgar a bit prematurely:  Redd has dominated Ray Allen in their careers, too.)

[Lucky17]

As for Redd, I just don't think the "Johnson is bigger and stronger" argument holds up.  If it did, I think the results would have shown themselves by now.

What's the URL for that player comparison tool, Roy? I'd like to take a look at the numbers for myself.

[Roy Hobbs]

As for Redd, I just don't think the "Johnson is bigger and stronger" argument holds up.  If it did, I think the results would have shown themselves by now.

What's the URL for that player comparison tool, Roy? I'd like to take a look at the numbers for myself.

Link.

The 12 game stretch I'm talking about starts in the 2004 season, and extends to the present.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Lucky, Hobbs was quicker on the draw. So I guess I'll just re-post some of Houston's advantages, to which I've gotten no argument.

1. Mike Bibby can't defend Ellis any more successively than Bosh can O'Neal. Monta getting in to the lane at will puts pressure on Redd and Lewis and O'Neal that they can ill afford.

2. Portland, a team that looks to put up a lot of 3 point shots, can't defend Houston in transition. We are quicker at every single position. The team that carries an advantage in fast break points usually carries the day.

3. Anthony Randolph will be fine. Jermaine O'Neal is not the threat some make him out to be.

In last years playoffs he averaged 13.3 points and 4.5 rebounds.

And this time he won't have a height advantage. It's Portland's PF/C who is going to have a hard time matching my PF/C's production. Mark my words.

4. Houston's starting five is not only better defensively they are better on the glass. Why doesn't an edge in rebounding matter?

[The Walker Wiggle]

And Redd leads in overall FG%, FT%, FTA and rebounds.

Now you're reaching. Really less than half of a FTA is worth mentioning? Or half of a rebound? Should I lay claim to Joe's Steals advantage?

How about the fact that Bosh beats Shaq on the boards. Holds a CAREER REBOUNDING ADVANTAGE! (... by a hair, but still...)