2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

I know there are people here that want to vote in the East.  I just know it!

I'll be voting.  I'm giving Orlando and Philly a chance to address their matchup.  Mostly, I'm concerned about how Orlando's supporting cast does.

Ditto... I want to hear why Orlando would win if LeBron didn't dominate Carmelo Anthony, because I'm not sure they would.

[Roy Hobbs]

I know there are people here that want to vote in the East.  I just know it!

I'll be voting.  I'm giving Orlando and Philly a chance to address their matchup.  Mostly, I'm concerned about how Orlando's supporting cast does.

Which matchup don't you like?

At the starting positions, it looks like Bynum could give Gasol trouble; Okafor could give Charlie V trouble on the defensive end; Diddy is simply better than Hinrich, and Brewer can slow down Richardson.  If Lebron doesn't destroy Carmelo, I think Philly has the advantage in the starting lineups.

Now, I like Orlando's backup big men a good deal better, but I also like Philly's wings better and backup point guard situation better.

Right now, I think the teams are very, very even, and if Carmelo's scoring average is within 4-5 points of Lebron's, I could see this being an upset.

I'd like to know what I'm overlooking.

[RebusRankin]

So now people are causing their votes to be thrown out?

[Gainesville Celtic]

Phily
     Simply a nightmare matchup for Bron, Melo can deffend him as much as the next guy not named paul pierce, raise level and a better supporting  cast make it happend.

Edgar, the point you make when picking PHI over ORL (which is a legit pick) makes no sense:

Lebron/career (472 gms) -- 27.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.7 apg
Lebron/vs DEN (12 gms) -- 24.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 7.4 apg

Melo/career (445 gms) -- 24.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.1 apg
Melo/vs CLE (11 gms) -- 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 apg

What evidence is there that Melo is a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron? Lebron plays right at his career average vs. DEN, Melo take a hit in every category.

Well he does get 3 pts less.

What's Lebron's record vs Denver?

4-7

That's what I thought.

I still like Orlando though even if Lebron isn't scoring 60 a game.

And just so everyone is crystal clear --- (a) I was NOT disagreeing with Edgar's vote (a vote either way is totally legit in this matchup), (b) I was taking issue with Edgar calling Melo vs. Lebron a "Nightmare Matchup" for Lebron. Which I still think is ridiculous hypberbole.

Edgar didn't say "tough matchup" (which it is), didn't say "bad matchup relative to other matchups Lebron faces in the East" (which is might be), he didn't say "Lebron and Melo would basically play each other to a draw" (which they could).

All of those i'm fine with and am not gonna look up shooting percentages, etc. for that reasons. Lebron and Melo are 2 of the 4 best SFs in the NBA right now (along w #34 and Durant).

Their matchup would be epic in the way that Pierce v. Lebron was 2 years ago... but no one would dare call that a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron. It was epic, but not nightmarish. And i'd dare say that Pierce is a tougher, more consistent defender (esp. vs. Lebron) than Melo is.

Hey, I have Philly as the 1a team in the East --- i'm horrified that we have to play them this early (again, shades of BOS playing CLE in the semis, then an inferior DET team in the ECF).

But if you vote for them (and go so far as posting a reason in the vote thread) at least make a case that makes some logical sense... that was my point.

[Edgar]

So now people are causing their votes to be thrown out?

dont worry Rebus I am a loyal player
or at least thats what i think about me

I would never do that

Its was just a fun observation
i will stick to my vote
only because thats the right thing to do.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I know there are people here that want to vote in the East.  I just know it!

I'll be voting.  I'm giving Orlando and Philly a chance to address their matchup.  Mostly, I'm concerned about how Orlando's supporting cast does.

Ditto... I want to hear why Orlando would win if LeBron didn't dominate Carmelo Anthony, because I'm not sure they would.

I'll be posting something in the next 30 mins or so (have a work phone call first  )

[Rondo2287]

Phily
     Simply a nightmare matchup for Bron, Melo can deffend him as much as the next guy not named paul pierce, raise level and a better supporting  cast make it happend.

Edgar, the point you make when picking PHI over ORL (which is a legit pick) makes no sense:

Lebron/career (472 gms) -- 27.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.7 apg
Lebron/vs DEN (12 gms) -- 24.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 7.4 apg

Melo/career (445 gms) -- 24.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.1 apg
Melo/vs CLE (11 gms) -- 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 apg

What evidence is there that Melo is a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron? Lebron plays right at his career average vs. DEN, Melo take a hit in every category.

Well he does get 3 pts less.

What's Lebron's record vs Denver?

4-7

That's what I thought.

I still like Orlando though even if Lebron isn't scoring 60 a game.

And just so everyone is crystal clear --- (a) I was NOT disagreeing with Edgar's vote (a vote either way is totally legit in this matchup), (b) I was taking issue with Edgar calling Melo vs. Lebron a "Nightmare Matchup" for Lebron. Which I still think is ridiculous hypberbole.

Edgar didn't say "tough matchup" (which it is), didn't say "bad matchup relative to other matchups Lebron faces in the East" (which is might be), he didn't say "Lebron and Melo would basically play each other to a draw" (which they could).

All of those i'm fine with and am not gonna look up shooting percentages, etc. for that reasons. Lebron and Melo are 2 of the 4 best SFs in the NBA right now (along w #34 and Durant).

Their matchup would be epic in the way that Pierce v. Lebron was 2 years ago... but no one would dare call that a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron. It was epic, but not nightmarish. And i'd dare say that Pierce is a tougher, more consistent defender (esp. vs. Lebron) than Melo is.

Hey, I have Philly as the 1a team in the East --- i'm horrified that we have to play them this early (again, shades of BOS playing CLE in the semis, then an inferior DET team in the ECF).
But if you vote for them (and go so far as posting a reason in the vote thread) at least make a case that makes some logical sense... that was my point.

Thanks GC

[indeedproceed]

I think giving Lebron an average 27-29 points and giving Carmelo 20-22 while outscoring Lebron 2 out of 5 games isn't a stretch. Carmelo has shown the unlovable tendency to disappear during playoff games.

That's my bigger concern for Philly. I like a lot of Orlando's matchups here, more noteably Hinrich on Davis and Brewer on Richardson. I think Ronnie Brewer after another NBA season should be able to contain J-Rich, and I think Hinrich can limit (but probably not contain) Baron Davis. I also think that Orlando has the depth at the 4/5 to easily handle Philly.

Also Roy although I agree Baron Davis is simply a better player, as you said ealier, Hinrich is maybe the best defensive PG in the league (I don't agree, but Hinrich is very, very good defenisvely)

[Roy Hobbs]

Phily
     Simply a nightmare matchup for Bron, Melo can deffend him as much as the next guy not named paul pierce, raise level and a better supporting  cast make it happend.

Edgar, the point you make when picking PHI over ORL (which is a legit pick) makes no sense:

Lebron/career (472 gms) -- 27.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.7 apg
Lebron/vs DEN (12 gms) -- 24.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 7.4 apg

Melo/career (445 gms) -- 24.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.1 apg
Melo/vs CLE (11 gms) -- 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 apg

What evidence is there that Melo is a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron? Lebron plays right at his career average vs. DEN, Melo take a hit in every category.

Well he does get 3 pts less.

What's Lebron's record vs Denver?

4-7

That's what I thought.

I still like Orlando though even if Lebron isn't scoring 60 a game.

And just so everyone is crystal clear --- (a) I was NOT disagreeing with Edgar's vote (a vote either way is totally legit in this matchup), (b) I was taking issue with Edgar calling Melo vs. Lebron a "Nightmare Matchup" for Lebron. Which I still think is ridiculous hypberbole.

Edgar didn't say "tough matchup" (which it is), didn't say "bad matchup relative to other matchups Lebron faces in the East" (which is might be), he didn't say "Lebron and Melo would basically play each other to a draw" (which they could).

All of those i'm fine with and am not gonna look up shooting percentages, etc. for that reasons. Lebron and Melo are 2 of the 4 best SFs in the NBA right now (along w #34 and Durant).

Their matchup would be epic in the way that Pierce v. Lebron was 2 years ago... but no one would dare call that a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron. It was epic, but not nightmarish. And i'd dare say that Pierce is a tougher, more consistent defender (esp. vs. Lebron) than Melo is.

Hey, I have Philly as the 1a team in the East --- i'm horrified that we have to play them this early (again, shades of BOS playing CLE in the semis, then an inferior DET team in the ECF).

But if you vote for them (and go so far as posting a reason in the vote thread) at least make a case that makes some logical sense... that was my point.

By "nightmare matchup", I think Edgar meant something like it's Lebron's worst case scenario, not that Lebron would get decimated.  Orlando's Waterloo very well could be running into a team that can contain Lebron and almost match him on the scoring end, while having advantages at other positions.

[Edgar]

Phily
     Simply a nightmare matchup for Bron, Melo can deffend him as much as the next guy not named paul pierce, raise level and a better supporting  cast make it happend.

Edgar, the point you make when picking PHI over ORL (which is a legit pick) makes no sense:

Lebron/career (472 gms) -- 27.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 6.7 apg
Lebron/vs DEN (12 gms) -- 24.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 7.4 apg

Melo/career (445 gms) -- 24.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.1 apg
Melo/vs CLE (11 gms) -- 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.9 apg

What evidence is there that Melo is a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron? Lebron plays right at his career average vs. DEN, Melo take a hit in every category.

Well he does get 3 pts less.

What's Lebron's record vs Denver?

4-7

That's what I thought.

I still like Orlando though even if Lebron isn't scoring 60 a game.

And just so everyone is crystal clear --- (a) I was NOT disagreeing with Edgar's vote (a vote either way is totally legit in this matchup), (b) I was taking issue with Edgar calling Melo vs. Lebron a "Nightmare Matchup" for Lebron. Which I still think is ridiculous hypberbole.

Edgar didn't say "tough matchup" (which it is), didn't say "bad matchup relative to other matchups Lebron faces in the East" (which is might be), he didn't say "Lebron and Melo would basically play each other to a draw" (which they could).

All of those i'm fine with and am not gonna look up shooting percentages, etc. for that reasons. Lebron and Melo are 2 of the 4 best SFs in the NBA right now (along w #34 and Durant).

Their matchup would be epic in the way that Pierce v. Lebron was 2 years ago... but no one would dare call that a "nightmare matchup" for Lebron. It was epic, but not nightmarish. And i'd dare say that Pierce is a tougher, more consistent defender (esp. vs. Lebron) than Melo is.

Hey, I have Philly as the 1a team in the East --- i'm horrified that we have to play them this early (again, shades of BOS playing CLE in the semis, then an inferior DET team in the ECF).

But if you vote for them (and go so far as posting a reason in the vote thread) at least make a case that makes some logical sense... that was my point.

By "nightmare matchup", I think Edgar meant something like it's Lebron's worst case scenario, not that Lebron would get decimated.  Orlando's Waterloo very well could be running into a team that can contain Lebron and almost match him on the scoring end, while having advantages at other positions.

For me going tired against artest is a nightmare for LeBron
unless of course he use some kind of substances to survive
still Artest can be one nightmare after another.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think giving Lebron an average 27-29 points and giving Carmelo 20-22 while outscoring Lebron 2 out of 5 games isn't a stretch. Carmelo has shown the unlovable tendency to disappear during playoff games.

Yeah, I think if Lebron outscores Carmello by 7 to 9 points per game, this one will be a lot more lopsided in Orlando's favor.

I disagree that Carmello will disappear in the playoffs, though.  Here's how he did against Kobe and the Lakers:  39 points, 31 points, 21 points, 15 points, 31 points, 25 points.

Against Dallas, he scored 23+ in all five games, and had 30+ three times (and 40+ once).

Against New Orleans, he had three games with 25+ points.

Overall, he scored 27.2 points per game in the playoffs, well up from his regular season average.  He averaged 28.6 points per game in 11 playoff games played in May.

[indeedproceed]

I think giving Lebron an average 27-29 points and giving Carmelo 20-22 while outscoring Lebron 2 out of 5 games isn't a stretch. Carmelo has shown the unlovable tendency to disappear during playoff games.

Yeah, I think if Lebron outscores Carmello by 7 to 9 points per game, this one will be a lot more lopsided in Orlando's favor.

I disagree that Carmello will disappear in the playoffs, though.  Here's how he did against Kobe and the Lakers:  39 points, 31 points, 21 points, 15 points, 31 points, 25 points.

Against Dallas, he scored 23+ in all five games, and had 30+ three times (and 40+ once).

Against New Orleans, he had three games with 25+ points.

Overall, he scored 27.2 points per game in the playoffs, well up from his regular season average.  He averaged 28.6 points per game in 11 playoff games played in May.

Well I should've looked closer. I could've sworn he had a few like 3 9pt, 14pt, 12pt efforts during the playoffs. Withdrawn.

[Lucky17]

I know there are people here that want to vote in the East.  I just know it!

I'll be voting.  I'm giving Orlando and Philly a chance to address their matchup.  Mostly, I'm concerned about how Orlando's supporting cast does.

Ditto... I want to hear why Orlando would win if LeBron didn't dominate Carmelo Anthony, because I'm not sure they would.

I'll let my former GM colleague do most of the heavy lifting here, but will say a few things about our matchup with Philly.

I don't see how Philly can win a seven game series against Orlando, given the Magics' frontcourt strength. Bynum and Okafor need to play major, major minutes for the Sixers to have a chance in this series, and I don't see how Bynum can consistently stay on the court without racking up fouls against a physical center like Gasol, or his backups. Sixers' bench seriously lacks physicality, size, and skill at the PF/C positions (Elson and Joe Smith vs. Foster and Varejao is a clear win for the Magics).

Also, what will Diddy have left in the tank after a 90-game season? Hinrich and Afflalo shouldn't have too much difficulty keeping him in check.

Throw in HCA for Orlando, and I see the Magics moving on to the next round.

[RebusRankin]

I think Seattle is overemphazing the bench issue.

Bayless hasn't proven he's a rotational player yet. As for having him pg, he averaged almost as many turnovers as assists last year. He also shot the ball poorly (36%). He states Corey Brewer will see extended time in this series but Brewer is coming off a serious injury and didn't exactly light it up when he did play. I feel Richardson and Jones match-up well there. Heck, for all the knocking QRich gets he can score and I think its fair to say he's a better and more proven scorer than any player off Seattle's bench.

Howard also outrebounded Duncan last year by 4 per game when their teams played so I don't think Duncan will hold Howard to a stalemate on the boards.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think giving Lebron an average 27-29 points and giving Carmelo 20-22 while outscoring Lebron 2 out of 5 games isn't a stretch. Carmelo has shown the unlovable tendency to disappear during playoff games.

Yeah, I think if Lebron outscores Carmello by 7 to 9 points per game, this one will be a lot more lopsided in Orlando's favor.

I disagree that Carmello will disappear in the playoffs, though.  Here's how he did against Kobe and the Lakers:  39 points, 31 points, 21 points, 15 points, 31 points, 25 points.

Against Dallas, he scored 23+ in all five games, and had 30+ three times (and 40+ once).

Against New Orleans, he had three games with 25+ points.

Overall, he scored 27.2 points per game in the playoffs, well up from his regular season average.  He averaged 28.6 points per game in 11 playoff games played in May.

Well I should've looked closer. I could've sworn he had a few like 3 9pt, 14pt, 12pt efforts during the playoffs. Withdrawn.

Yeah, and Carmelo did that battling an ankle injury.