2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[JSD]

I feel GM's should be breaking down their teams down in minutes. After all, it's a key element in whether or not a player will be content on your team. I see a lot of talent packed onto some teams with only so many "game-time" minutes to go around. I envision some uneasy stars and young players.

we play to win
we addapt to situations

dont try to put me in a box.

Ok, just don't try to sell me that Manu will be content with 10 minutes a game. Cause I'm not buying it 

We'll probably have 9 guys averaging 25 - 30 minutes per game each, with the other three active guys being situational subs.  Also, we plan to liberally give guys the night off, to keep them healthy for the playoffs.  82 games is a grind, so we're going to mix it up.

9 Players AVG. 25 minutes a game? I can't see that as a successful formula. Honestly, I think you guys have some decisions to make on your rotation. This game isn't about acquiring the most talent it's about building an actual team right? The scenario your painting is unrealistic in this voters opinion. There are other teams I see with the same issues, This formula doesn't work for young teams either. Guys want to know there roles and want to play.

Is that reality, or is it your bias looking for a reason to knock Portland down? 

Minutes in recent seasons:

Shaq: 30 per game
Manu: 26.8 per game
Brad Miller: 27.6 per game in Chicago
Delonte: 25.1 per game two seasons ago; 20.8 in Seattle
Gomes: 31.9 per game
Jermaine: 29.8 per game
Bibby: 31.5 per game in Sacramento last season

Only Michael Redd and Rashard Lewis will have to take a hit in minutes.  With Redd and his injuries, I'm sure that's a blessing, which means our team chemistry depends on Rashard Lewis being willing to take 30 minutes per game rather than 36.  Somehow, I don't think the sky is falling.

Again, the "too much talent" thing is just an excuse to knock down good teams.

Only 240 Minutes is in a game Roy... Allocate them.

Is this reality? Yes it's reality. Successful NBA teams have clear defined roles and typical 8-man rotations.

09 Lakers

Bynum 28.9
Gasol 37.
Ariza 24.4
Bryant 36.1
Fisher 30.

Odom 29.7

Farmar 18.3
Walton 17.9
----------------------
222.3

That leaves 17.7 for the rest of the team.

And that's the regular season, don't get me started on the playoffs.




http://www.nba.com/lakers/stats/2008/index.html


       

[Roy Hobbs]

Well, I'm glad you're using the Lakers as an example.  I'm not sure, though, that that's the only way a championship can be won.

Look at San Antonio a couple years ago, when they won a title:

Duncan: 34.1
Parker: 32.5
Bowen: 30.0
Manu:  27.5
Finley: 22.2

Again, I see your criticism as an attempt to attack a very deep and talented team, full of guys who have accepted limited minutes in "real life".

[JSD]

Well, I'm glad you're using the Lakers as an example.  I'm not sure, though, that that's the only way a championship can be won.

Look at San Antonio a couple years ago, when they won a title:

Duncan: 34.1
Parker: 32.5
Bowen: 30.0
Manu:  27.5
Finley: 22.2

Again, I see your criticism as an attempt to attack a very deep and talented team, full of guys who have accepted limited minutes in "real life".

2007 Spurs

Francisco Elson 19.0
Tim Duncan 34.1
Michael Finley    22.2     
Manu Ginobili 27.5
Tony Parker 32.5

Bruce Bowen    30.0    

Brent Barry    21.7    
James White    22.8    
---------------------------------
30.2 Remaining for the rest of the team.  Again not even getting started on the playoffs yet.


It's not an indictment of your team. It's this voters philosophy and view of championship caliber teams, which typically don't have guys 9,10,11 or 12 playing major roles.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2007.html

[Roy Hobbs]

Well, I'm glad you're using the Lakers as an example.  I'm not sure, though, that that's the only way a championship can be won.

Look at San Antonio a couple years ago, when they won a title:

Duncan: 34.1
Parker: 32.5
Bowen: 30.0
Manu:  27.5
Finley: 22.2

Again, I see your criticism as an attempt to attack a very deep and talented team, full of guys who have accepted limited minutes in "real life".

2007 Spurs

Francisco Elson 19.0
Tim Duncan 34.1
Michael Finley    22.2     
Manu Ginobili 27.5
Tony Parker 32.5

Bruce Bowen    30.0    

Brent Barry    21.7    
James White    22.8    
---------------------------------
30.2 Remaining for the rest of the team.  Again not even getting started on the playoffs yet.


It's not an indictment of your team. It's this voters philosophy and view of championship caliber teams, which typically don't have guys 9,10,11 or 12 playing major roles.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2007.html

Well, I'm sure if the Spurs could have traded their bench for Fake Portland's bench, they would have done so.

The reason championship teams don't go 9-deep is because it's impossible to acquire that much talent.  It's just not realistic to have some of the "super teams" that you see on here.  That doesn't mean, however, that if it was possible, real-life GMs would pass on it.

I mean, you really think San Antonio would rather have Brent Barry and James White in the rotation, if they had their preference of taking Gomes and Delonte instead?

[JSD]

Well, I'm glad you're using the Lakers as an example.  I'm not sure, though, that that's the only way a championship can be won.

Look at San Antonio a couple years ago, when they won a title:

Duncan: 34.1
Parker: 32.5
Bowen: 30.0
Manu:  27.5
Finley: 22.2

Again, I see your criticism as an attempt to attack a very deep and talented team, full of guys who have accepted limited minutes in "real life".

2007 Spurs

Francisco Elson 19.0
Tim Duncan 34.1
Michael Finley    22.2     
Manu Ginobili 27.5
Tony Parker 32.5

Bruce Bowen    30.0    

Brent Barry    21.7    
James White    22.8    
---------------------------------
30.2 Remaining for the rest of the team.  Again not even getting started on the playoffs yet.


It's not an indictment of your team. It's this voters philosophy and view of championship caliber teams, which typically don't have guys 9,10,11 or 12 playing major roles.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2007.html

Well, I'm sure if the Spurs could have traded their bench for Fake Portland's bench, they would have done so.

The reason championship teams don't go 9-deep is because it's impossible to acquire that much talent.  It's just not realistic to have some of the "super teams" that you see on here.  That doesn't mean, however, that if it was possible, real-life GMs would pass on it.

I mean, you really think San Antonio would rather have Brent Barry and James White in the rotation, if they had their preference of taking Gomes and Delonte instead?

No, I disagree. Players with defined roles and positive mentality towards those roles, combined with proper minutes is what it takes to win it all in this voters opinion. You have a strong playoff team Roy, not as strong as the "04" Lakers but just as combustible.

[Roy Hobbs]

No, I disagree. Players with defined roles and positive mentality towards those roles, combined with proper minutes is what it takes to win it all in this voters opinion. You have a strong playoff team Roy, not as strong as the "04" Lakers but just as combustible.

Ok, if that's your opinion, so be it.  (Maybe Edgar and I will stop drafting in the 5th round next year. )

Out of curiosity, though, which players on our team don't have a "positive mentality" and/or are "combustible"?

We showed you above that these guys will be asked to take roles right around what they've done in real life.  Yet, you suggest they wouldn't be willing to do so.  That doesn't make sense; 7 of our 9 rotation guys will be playing the same number of minutes (or close to them) as they do in reality.

Our players *do* have defined roles.  Those roles are defined within a 25-30 minute setting.

It seems a bit weird, that the dual criticisms of our team are:

1) Our team is "too injured"; and
2) We don't play those injured players enough minutes.

Strange.  Should we run Manu into the ground, even though that's not what the Spurs do?  Should we ask Shaq to play more than 30 minutes, despite that being his average in real life?

[Rondo2287]

Continued From Below

Pf:
Kevin Garnett: Not sure what exactly I can say about this guy that everybody on this board doesnt already know.  I guess the only thing that we ask voters to consider is that we expect him as one of the main go to guys on this offense to average closer to 20 points a game on this team as well as get his Assists back up to around the 4-5 per game mark. 

C:
Marcus Camby:  People have been saying that his defense is overrated and thats a respectable opinion.  What I want people to consider is how many rebounds per game do you think are going to be available when KG, Ron, and Afflalo are forcing thier players into bad shots.  Also its always been said that a team needs to commit to defense in order for it to work.  He has always been the guy doing it on his own and putting up the great block numbers as a result.  But imagine that shot blocker as part of a defensive system that is dedicated to playing great defense 100 percent of the time.  I am not saying he is going to return to his 20 year old form, but I do think that he will have a very effective and somewhat reguvinated year playing in this defensive system

Backup Big men

Big Z:  Towards the end of the year Big Z was looking older and that is a fact.  What people dont consider is that who doesnt look old trying to cover Dwight Howard.  The other facts are that the guy averaged 13 points and 7.5 rebounds this year.  He is still a very effective Center in this league and will embrace the backup role for the very reason that he is getting older.  We feel that his Jumpshot game will be a great compliment to KG's.  We are using similar logic to the, "Who does Shaq cover away from the basket, Rasheed or KG?" argument that we have seen  on this board so many times.  This isnt targeted at shaq in this case, but also some of the bigger (fatter) centers that Camby may not match up with so favorably. 

Oberto:We picked Oberto up because again he is coming from the Spurs defensive system that we love so much up here in Toronto.  He also has playoff and championship experience as a result of being in SA.  Hes got good size being 6-10 and is a pretty effective rebounder.  This being said, he will get the least amount of minutes of our big men but when he is playing we expect quality minutes from him. 

[JSD]

No, I disagree. Players with defined roles and positive mentality towards those roles, combined with proper minutes is what it takes to win it all in this voters opinion. You have a strong playoff team Roy, not as strong as the "04" Lakers but just as combustible.

Ok, if that's your opinion, so be it.  (Maybe Edgar and I will stop drafting in the 5th round next year. )

Out of curiosity, though, which players on our team don't have a "positive mentality" and/or are "combustible"?

We showed you above that these guys will be asked to take roles right around what they've done in real life.  Yet, you suggest they wouldn't be willing to do so.  That doesn't make sense; 7 of our 9 rotation guys will be playing the same number of minutes (or close to them) as they do in reality.

Our players *do* have defined roles.  Those roles are defined within a 25-30 minute setting.

It seems a bit weird, that the dual criticisms of our team are:

1) Our team is "too injured"; and
2) We don't play those injured players enough minutes.

Strange.  Should we run Manu into the ground, even though that's not what the Spurs do?  Should we ask Shaq to play more than 30 minutes, despite that being his average in real life?

Maybe change from your quantity over quality approach pre-draft?

Anyway, Who is the ace of your team? Who gets the ball with 5 seconds on the clock down by one? Who's on the floor in the 4th with 2 minutes to go in a close game? These are all legitimate questions that will shape your team's morale positively or negatively. It's not your players that are combustible, it's the situation your putting them in.

And again I'm not targeting the Blazers, I'm speaking in general.

[KCattheStripe]

OK, fire away;

PG: Tony Parker/ Mo Williams
SG:Rudy Fernandez/ Daequann Cook
SF: Wilson Chandler/ Omri Casspi
PF: Boris Diaw/ DJ White
C: Brook Lopez/ Andrea Bargnani

[ChampKind]

OK, fire away;

PG: Tony Parker/ Mo Williams
SG:Rudy Fernandez/ Daequann Cook
SF: Wilson Chandler/ Omri Casspi
PF: Boris Diaw/ DJ White
C: Brook Lopez/ Andrea Bargnani

Nice starters, but unproven outside of Parker.  I like Mo Williams as a backup, same with Bargnani, and Cook isn't terrible.  Unlike others, I think the Chandler can be a starting 3 on a championship caliber team, so I think you're ok there.  You need more depth at the 3/4, and more bangers - Lopez and maybe White (unproven) are the only guys who can be feisty in the paint.

[indeedproceed]

OK, fire away;

PG: Tony Parker/ Mo Williams
SG:Rudy Fernandez/ Daequann Cook
SF: Wilson Chandler/ Omri Casspi
PF: Boris Diaw/ DJ White
C: Brook Lopez/ Andrea Bargnani

Solid team, a little young, but Parker brings some championship experience, and Diaw has been in high pressure situations. Not a chip contender but possible mid to late seed playoff.

[Roy Hobbs]

Maybe change from your quantity over quality approach pre-draft?

Objectively, we have both.  If you don't think our players are "quality", then I don't know what to tell you.

[JSD]

Maybe change from your quantity over quality approach pre-draft?

Objectively, we have both.  If you don't think our players are "quality", then I don't know what to tell you.

Ugh... I wasn't referring to your players...

[Roy Hobbs]

Maybe change from your quantity over quality approach pre-draft?

Objectively, we have both.  If you don't think our players are "quality", then I don't know what to tell you.

Ugh... I wasn't referring to your players...

Eh.  We could have built around Amare Stoudemire, our we could get Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby, Brad Miller, and Ronny Turiaf.  I like our pre-draft trade.

If you aren't referring to our players, I guess I'm confused what the criticism is.  We could go two ways: more talent or less.  We took "more".

[KCattheStripe]

OK, fire away;

PG: Tony Parker/ Mo Williams
SG:Rudy Fernandez/ Daequann Cook
SF: Wilson Chandler/ Omri Casspi
PF: Boris Diaw/ DJ White
C: Brook Lopez/ Andrea Bargnani

Solid team, a little young, but Parker brings some championship experience, and Diaw has been in high pressure situations. Not a chip contender but possible mid to late seed playoff.

I think we win our division and that goes a long way to us making the playoffs. Also, I think we're front runners for team of the future. I was amazed how similar Gay and Rudy's numbers were.

Rudy Gay: 19 ppg , 5.5 boards, 1.7 assts , 1.2 stl , 1 blk
Chandler; 14 ppg, 5.4 boards, 2.1 assts, 1 stl, 1 blk.

And Chandler is a year younger.