Author Topic: so what if we overpay Rondo?  (Read 14551 times)

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Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2009, 05:28:12 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Here's where i think things get sticky with Rondo:

3 Years down the line, the Celtics will have become quite mediocre in all likely hood. Most of Allen, Pierce, Garnett will have retired. Rondo and Perkins will be surrounded by a bunch of role players and late 1st / 2nd round prospects. What will Rondo's attitude be like? Will he be mature enough to be a leader? Will a prospective big time FA want to play with him?

I have no idea what the answer is to that question... I hope he continues to mature and improve his shot. I really like his game.

  If that happened we'd be (I would think) at least $20M under the cap, if not more, and Danny would be shopping for a max contract player. I'd be very surprised if we got to that point, and Danny didn't trade any of the contracts of the big three for other high-paid players.

Pierce will probably retire a Celtic, and yeah I expect Ainge to explore every opportunity with the other contracts when their time comes.

The ultimate key for me is that when we go into the new era, the celtic management needs to do whatever it takes to get an elite superstar.

If Rondo wont resign for say 50/5 this summer i would be content to go into 2010 and match and/or enter the player movement bonanza ahead.

For now i just want a legit backup 3 and 5.  ;D

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2009, 05:56:01 PM »

Offline KG

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say we give Rondo $11M a year for the next 5 years (starting next year) and he never gets any better than he is now (gambles on D, can't hit jumpers reliably, but still distributes the ball well)

I know what you're saying and understand your concern, but I'm really hoping Rondo becomes the type of player that the word "overpaid" is never an issue.  I think he has Hall of Fame potential, and hope like hell he lives up to that potential.

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #32 on: June 17, 2009, 06:48:28 PM »

Offline Jon

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say we give Rondo $11M a year for the next 5 years (starting next year) and he never gets any better than he is now (gambles on D, can't hit jumpers reliably, but still distributes the ball well)

considering the way Ainge has contracts cascading off the books over the next 3 years, in a worst case scenario, he still has the flexibility to work with that doesn't he?

I'm all for fiscal sanity and flexibility, but what I don't get is how people will set a limit on a guy and say "we can't pay him more than 9M"

I understand that to you and me $2M is a lot of money, but does it really hurt us to overpay him by $2M or even $3M a year?  At worst we would have to reduce our roster size to 12 or 13 and pass on signing the future equivalent to Tony Allen

just food for thought

I agree with Jeff. 

Add to that this nugget: is it worth overpaying Rondo for the next 5 years to keep this team together for the next 2-3?  It'd be one thing if we're talking about the pipe dream trades of Rondo and garbage for Chris Paul.  But when we come back down to reality and look at some of these Rondo for draft pick deals, it's quite possible that such a trade could mean the end of our current championship run. 

I think a few million extra per year down the road is worth the stability it would provide for the next few years. 

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #33 on: June 17, 2009, 06:54:54 PM »

Offline Who

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Add to that this nugget: is it worth overpaying Rondo for the next 5 years to keep this team together for the next 2-3?  It'd be one thing if we're talking about the pipe dream trades of Rondo and garbage for Chris Paul.  But when we come back down to reality and look at some of these Rondo for draft pick deals, it's quite possible that such a trade could mean the end of our current championship run. 
I feel much better about trading Ray for a draft pick than Rondo.

That option, trading Rondo for a pick, holds no value to me. He's already so good, and so young, it'll be immensely difficult just to get a comparable talent from the pick.

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #34 on: June 17, 2009, 07:23:01 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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Well, it depends.  Let's say the "true" value of Rondo as he stands right now is $6 million per season.  (Maybe it's more, maybe it's less, but I think above-MLE money for a limited offensive player is fair.)  His five year deal would presumably be structured roughly as follows:

'10: $9m
'11: $10m
'12: $11m
'13: $12m
'14: $13m

So, in 2010, he's only overpaid $3 million, but in 2014, he's overpaid by $7 million.

What does $7 million get you?  Well, it depends on what our other contracts are.  $7 million could be $7 million in additional luxury tax, meaning the total payout is $14 million.  It could be $7 million that is relatively irrelevant, because we're above the cap but below the luxury tax.  It could be $7 million that keeps us from signing a superstar, because we're under the cap, but not by enough.

Any time you overpay, there will be consequences.  The question is, is the potential gain (Rondo achieving all-star potential) outweighed by the risk (Rondo never developing, and paying him something like an extra $23 million over 5 years, and having teams continue to play off him in the playoffs.)

Ah, if everyone just got paid for being a fan favorite ...

Well said, Roy. Good weighng of the pros and cons.

Personally, I don't think Rondo's earned $11 million on the average. Given what he's shown us, I don't all favor paying him "just because."

Sure wish Posey was this kind of a fan favorite ...

I agree with Who: I don't want to move Rondo for a pick in a poor draft. But this FO has established last summer that they won't go out of budget, even for a necessary commodity. I'm comfortable with the way they've handled this situation - thus far.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2009, 07:32:45 PM by CoachBo »
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Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #35 on: June 17, 2009, 07:50:05 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Well, it depends.  Let's say the "true" value of Rondo as he stands right now is $6 million per season.  (Maybe it's more, maybe it's less, but I think above-MLE money for a limited offensive player is fair.)  His five year deal would presumably be structured roughly as follows:

'10: $9m
'11: $10m
'12: $11m
'13: $12m
'14: $13m

So, in 2010, he's only overpaid $3 million, but in 2014, he's overpaid by $7 million.

What does $7 million get you?  Well, it depends on what our other contracts are.  $7 million could be $7 million in additional luxury tax, meaning the total payout is $14 million.  It could be $7 million that is relatively irrelevant, because we're above the cap but below the luxury tax.  It could be $7 million that keeps us from signing a superstar, because we're under the cap, but not by enough.

Any time you overpay, there will be consequences.  The question is, is the potential gain (Rondo achieving all-star potential) outweighed by the risk (Rondo never developing, and paying him something like an extra $23 million over 5 years, and having teams continue to play off him in the playoffs.)

Ah, if everyone just got paid for being a fan favorite ...

Well said, Roy. Good weighng of the pros and cons.

Personally, I don't think Rondo's earned $11 million on the average. Given what he's shown us, I don't all favor paying him "just because."

Sure wish Posey was this kind of a fan favorite ...

I agree with Who: I don't want to move Rondo for a pick in a poor draft. But this FO has established last summer that they won't go out of budget, even for a necessary commodity. I'm comfortable with the way they've handled this situation - thus far.

  Posey is that kind of fan favorite (of yours). It's no different.

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #36 on: June 17, 2009, 08:07:39 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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And, I suppose, you can make an argument that neither should be paid merely because they're fan favorites.

That's my point.

Rondo's not going to be traded. He's also not going to be overpaid. All is well.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2009, 08:21:07 PM by CoachBo »
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #37 on: June 17, 2009, 08:28:48 PM »

Offline snively

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I am nervous that he will always be a liability in the playoffs. Chicago had no defensive scheme whatsoever. Their coach was not ready for the playoffs. Orlando, Cleveland, and LAL had a gameplan to ditch Rondo and we struggled against all 3 teams, which is important because they are the contenders.

We beat Cleveland and the Lakers last year with Rondo as the starter, and we almost beat Orlando with Rondo as the starter and down KG and Powe.  He hasn't prevented the team from winning in the playoffs.


Ah, if everyone just got paid for being a fan favorite ...

Well said, Roy. Good weighng of the pros and cons.

Personally, I don't think Rondo's earned $11 million on the average. Given what he's shown us, I don't all favor paying him "just because."

Sure wish Posey was this kind of a fan favorite ...

I agree with Who: I don't want to move Rondo for a pick in a poor draft. But this FO has established last summer that they won't go out of budget, even for a necessary commodity. I'm comfortable with the way they've handled this situation - thus far.

It's one thing to definitely overpay for a back-up SF on the wrong side of 30 when the team has bigger frontcourt needs and extensions for starters to weigh (Rondo and Ray).  It's another to potentially overpay for your starting 23-year old PG who's the only young guy on the team with star potential.  I wish we had overpaid for Posey.  I still don't understand the obsession over the 4th year.  But it wasn't a crippling mistake.  Opportunities to sign quality back-ups come around most every year.  In contrast, letting Rondo, a good to great starter, walk for similarly petty financial concerns would be a far greater mistake. 
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Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #38 on: June 17, 2009, 08:45:35 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Rondo is at least worth $10mm a year and probably closer to $11mm here is my case.

Steve Nash - $12.2mm
Baron Davis- $11.2mm
Tony Parker- $11.5mm
Chauncey Billups- $11.0mm

Rondo is as good or at least very close to as good as all of these players.  He is a key player for the Celtics on offense even without a jumpshot.  He often gets 2 or 3 easy layups a game that helps our offense from having to grind out buckets.  Also his rebounding is very overlooked and really helps our team defense limiting second chance points.  

I think we offer Rondo a deal of 5 years $55mm or $60mm.  My biggest worry is that so many teams have tried to free cap space for next season that someone will offer him a max deal and he will leave.


He is not there yet.  He is not as consistent as those guys.


Rondo is not the 2 time MVP
Rondo is not the Finals MVP
Rondo is not the guy that averages close to 20 and 8



We hope he can become that guy.


And with those  guys, how many of them took a long time to get to where they are now in terms of salary?

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #39 on: June 17, 2009, 09:12:43 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Add to that this nugget: is it worth overpaying Rondo for the next 5 years to keep this team together for the next 2-3?  It'd be one thing if we're talking about the pipe dream trades of Rondo and garbage for Chris Paul.  But when we come back down to reality and look at some of these Rondo for draft pick deals, it's quite possible that such a trade could mean the end of our current championship run. 
I feel much better about trading Ray for a draft pick than Rondo.

That option, trading Rondo for a pick, holds no value to me. He's already so good, and so young, it'll be immensely difficult just to get a comparable talent from the pick.

I agree that Rondo is a terrific young player.  However, I'd feel a little better about his future if I could picture even one player in history who began like Rondo, didn't eventually develop a shot (and ability to finish in traffic), but still became a consistent star.  The shot is key to me.  He WILL lose a step by 28-30, and his speed game will come down to earth.  Who does he project into? Find me a fast skinny 6'1" point guard who can't shoot but became a consistent NBA star.   He handles the ball well, is a great rebounder (speed!!), he will continue to make progress with decision making, his defense is good but feels overrated to me (he is no 'glove').  He is unique -- but once he can't outrun every player on the court, he'll have to out-think them and he'll have to be a better finisher and a better (much better) shooter.  I don't buy the Jason Kidd argument that he doesn't need a shot. Kidd is bigger, better IQ, sees the court amazingly well and can thread a needle from 50 feet.  And -- Kidd DID need to develop a dangerous enough shot to keep defenses honest and open up his teammates. Since Kidd can see over most guys guarding him, he can expoit the advantage. Rondo is short, not strong enough to move anyone, and has to play with guys falling 5 feet off of him.  He is not strong enough in the paint to use his speed as effectively as he could (if he were stronger) -- he relies on tricky moves and sometimes ends up with good position but often too off-balance to finish or too nervous with the 'trees' around him.  

Don't misunderstand me -- I think Rondo is a terrific talent and has been a great young PG (third best young PG in the league -- 4th if consider Parker still young).  However, his current skill set doesn't (IMO) project to stardom like CP and DW since they possess attributes that are likely to remain or improve as they age.  Rondo's most important attribute -- his speed -- is a component that is unlikely to sustain over time.  He'll surely lose a step and by then he'll have to have other skills to compensate.  He MAY continue to progress in all facets of the game, but I do not see Rondo as an automatic perrenial all-star the way others do.  That said, he'll be good -- but maybe not good enough to commit to a high salary and many years.  It's possible that his value is high enough now that DA thinks now is the time to make a move.

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #40 on: June 17, 2009, 09:29:21 PM »

Offline Jon

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Add to that this nugget: is it worth overpaying Rondo for the next 5 years to keep this team together for the next 2-3?  It'd be one thing if we're talking about the pipe dream trades of Rondo and garbage for Chris Paul.  But when we come back down to reality and look at some of these Rondo for draft pick deals, it's quite possible that such a trade could mean the end of our current championship run. 
I feel much better about trading Ray for a draft pick than Rondo.

That option, trading Rondo for a pick, holds no value to me. He's already so good, and so young, it'll be immensely difficult just to get a comparable talent from the pick.

I agree that Rondo is a terrific young player.  However, I'd feel a little better about his future if I could picture even one player in history who began like Rondo, didn't eventually develop a shot (and ability to finish in traffic), but still became a consistent star.  The shot is key to me.  He WILL lose a step by 28-30, and his speed game will come down to earth.  Who does he project into? Find me a fast skinny 6'1" point guard who can't shoot but became a consistent NBA star.   He handles the ball well, is a great rebounder (speed!!), he will continue to make progress with decision making, his defense is good but feels overrated to me (he is no 'glove').  He is unique -- but once he can't outrun every player on the court, he'll have to out-think them and he'll have to be a better finisher and a better (much better) shooter.  I don't buy the Jason Kidd argument that he doesn't need a shot. Kidd is bigger, better IQ, sees the court amazingly well and can thread a needle from 50 feet.  And -- Kidd DID need to develop a dangerous enough shot to keep defenses honest and open up his teammates. Since Kidd can see over most guys guarding him, he can expoit the advantage. Rondo is short, not strong enough to move anyone, and has to play with guys falling 5 feet off of him.  He is not strong enough in the paint to use his speed as effectively as he could (if he were stronger) -- he relies on tricky moves and sometimes ends up with good position but often too off-balance to finish or too nervous with the 'trees' around him.  

Don't misunderstand me -- I think Rondo is a terrific talent and has been a great young PG (third best young PG in the league -- 4th if consider Parker still young).  However, his current skill set doesn't (IMO) project to stardom like CP and DW since they possess attributes that are likely to remain or improve as they age.  Rondo's most important attribute -- his speed -- is a component that is unlikely to sustain over time.  He'll surely lose a step and by then he'll have to have other skills to compensate.  He MAY continue to progress in all facets of the game, but I do not see Rondo as an automatic perrenial all-star the way others do.  That said, he'll be good -- but maybe not good enough to commit to a high salary and many years.  It's possible that his value is high enough now that DA thinks now is the time to make a move.

Two things:

1) A shot is probably one of the easier things to develop.  He's already improved and with practice, he should improve more.

2) Yes, he may slow down at 28-30; however, he's only 23.  If he signs a 5 year deal for after this year, even if it is at 11 million dollars, he'll only be 29 when it expires.  If he's showing signs of slowing down, we can worry about it then. 

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #41 on: June 17, 2009, 09:34:40 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Two things:

1) A shot is probably one of the easier things to develop.  He's already improved and with practice, he should improve more.

In what manner has he improved?  His eFG% on jump shots actually decreased fairly significantly last season.  His three point percentage increased marginally, but his overall percentage on jumpers fell.

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Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #42 on: June 17, 2009, 09:50:07 PM »

Offline jdpapa3

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In the stats I see, Rondo shot 33% on jumpshots in 08-09 and 41% in 07-08.

Wouldn't have guessed that.


Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #43 on: June 17, 2009, 10:01:22 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

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The kid almost averaged a triple double in the playoffs...And we want to trade him? Hes the most valueable player to the this team right at this moment and we want to trade him?! This is absurd!

Re: so what if we overpay Rondo?
« Reply #44 on: June 17, 2009, 11:15:16 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Rondo is at least worth $10mm a year and probably closer to $11mm here is my case.

Steve Nash - $12.2mm
Baron Davis- $11.2mm
Tony Parker- $11.5mm
Chauncey Billups- $11.0mm

Rondo is as good or at least very close to as good as all of these players.  He is a key player for the Celtics on offense even without a jumpshot.  He often gets 2 or 3 easy layups a game that helps our offense from having to grind out buckets.  Also his rebounding is very overlooked and really helps our team defense limiting second chance points.  

I think we offer Rondo a deal of 5 years $55mm or $60mm.  My biggest worry is that so many teams have tried to free cap space for next season that someone will offer him a max deal and he will leave.


He is not there yet.  He is not as consistent as those guys.


Rondo is not the 2 time MVP
Rondo is not the Finals MVP
Rondo is not the guy that averages close to 20 and 8



We hope he can become that guy.


And with those  guys, how many of them took a long time to get to where they are now in terms of salary?

  Right now he's right in the middle of that group.