Add to that this nugget: is it worth overpaying Rondo for the next 5 years to keep this team together for the next 2-3? It'd be one thing if we're talking about the pipe dream trades of Rondo and garbage for Chris Paul. But when we come back down to reality and look at some of these Rondo for draft pick deals, it's quite possible that such a trade could mean the end of our current championship run.
I feel much better about trading Ray for a draft pick than Rondo.
That option, trading Rondo for a pick, holds no value to me. He's already so good, and so young, it'll be immensely difficult just to get a comparable talent from the pick.
I agree that Rondo is a terrific young player. However, I'd feel a little better about his future if I could picture even one player in history who began like Rondo, didn't eventually develop a shot (and ability to finish in traffic), but still became a consistent star. The shot is key to me. He WILL lose a step by 28-30, and his speed game will come down to earth. Who does he project into? Find me a fast skinny 6'1" point guard who can't shoot but became a consistent NBA star. He handles the ball well, is a great rebounder (speed!!), he will continue to make progress with decision making, his defense is good but feels overrated to me (he is no 'glove'). He is unique -- but once he can't outrun every player on the court, he'll have to out-think them and he'll have to be a better finisher and a better (much better) shooter. I don't buy the Jason Kidd argument that he doesn't need a shot. Kidd is bigger, better IQ, sees the court amazingly well and can thread a needle from 50 feet. And -- Kidd DID need to develop a dangerous enough shot to keep defenses honest and open up his teammates. Since Kidd can see over most guys guarding him, he can expoit the advantage. Rondo is short, not strong enough to move anyone, and has to play with guys falling 5 feet off of him. He is not strong enough in the paint to use his speed as effectively as he could (if he were stronger) -- he relies on tricky moves and sometimes ends up with good position but often too off-balance to finish or too nervous with the 'trees' around him.
Don't misunderstand me -- I think Rondo is a terrific talent and has been a great young PG (third best young PG in the league -- 4th if consider Parker still young). However, his current skill set doesn't (IMO) project to stardom like CP and DW since they possess attributes that are likely to remain or improve as they age. Rondo's most important attribute -- his speed -- is a component that is unlikely to sustain over time. He'll surely lose a step and by then he'll have to have other skills to compensate. He MAY continue to progress in all facets of the game, but I do not see Rondo as an automatic perrenial all-star the way others do. That said, he'll be good -- but maybe not good enough to commit to a high salary and many years. It's possible that his value is high enough now that DA thinks now is the time to make a move.