Paul Pierce is not clutch (from the free throw line)

[CoachBo]

PP never makes 2 when his team needs him to

If we are taking about Ft's hes definitely not clutch.

"Never"?  

If anyone really believes he never makes 2 when needed, they know little about basketball. He has buried 2 needed FTs at the end of games plenty of times.

It is sad how the post quality on this forum plummets after losses. I wonder if we are seeing a lot of drunken posters.

Yeah, it is sad. About all we're missing right now is Darth Celtic banning anyone who disagrees with him.

[rondohondo]

at least not at the free throw line.

2002 ECF Game 4 against NJ under 1 minute left misses clutch free throws to lose the game and swing the momentum to NJ

2009 - Game 1 and 4 against Chi, Misses clutch free throws to give Chicago life


I have a feeling there are a few more that I am forgetting about , but I definitely don't want PP at the line with the game on the line....

Hmmm...two instances you can recall in what, eight seasons?

You make such a compelling argument

It's not the amount of times he choked it's at the biggest moments that he does it in the playoffs. Those missed fee throws in 2002 changed the whole momentum in that series. So far this playoffs he has missed 2 opportunites to win games and gave chicago life and a realistic shot of pulling the upset now. I am not saying Pierce isn't clutch at the end of games with last second shots. All I am saying is I don't want him at the free throw line at the end of a close game.

[BouncingBuckeye]

He's a fine shotmaker at the end of games, one of the best. That said his free throw shooting has generally lagged behind his shotmaking and he's never really been rock solid at the line at the end of games. His struggles from the line in the '02 ECF, starting in game 4, were quite noticeable and did affect that series.  He seemed to tighten up his FT form last year; he stuck with it and it paid dividends (reg season and playoffs).  In fact, last year was the first time I've felt comfortable with him taking a decisive FT at the end of a game (tho of course he made some big ones over the years).  I've noticed that the last couple of months this season he's started to look a little inconsistent again from the line; the shot trajectory varies, the form isn't quite as tight.  So it's not so surprising that he's has some problems again from the line at the end of gmes.

[BballTim]

  Check out Paul's clutch stats on 82games:

06/07 season, 79.6% ft, 90.7% in clutch situations.
07/08 season, 84.3% ft, 83.3% in clutch situations.
07/08 playoffs, 80.2% ft, 88% in clutch situations.
08/09 season, 83% ft, 85.1% in clutch situations.

  Seems pretty clutch to me.

TP

Stats are ridiculously silly when assessing how "clutch" a player is. With that being said, Pierce is not as "clutch" as people make him out to be on this board. This is just another case of delusional homerism. Pierce often chokes when the pressure is on. Anyone who has followed the Celtics since his career has started should know this.

  You're right. When trying to judge how well Pierce shoots his free throws in late-game close situations, it's practically insane to rely on his actual ft percentage in those situations. It makes much more sense to list a few misses that you can recall over the years. I'd also agree that claiming that someone who makes about 86% of his late game free throws is "clutch" is clearly blind homerism, as is any claims that someone who hits a higher percentage of his fts in the clutch than he normally does isn't a choker.

  More useless stats/perspective: If Pierce hit about 85% of his clutch stats (which would probably put him in the top 20% of the league in that category) he'd still be missing, on average, 1 ft for every 6 shots, so every 3rd time he goes to the line to shoot 2 he misses 1. Since he's among the league leaders in clutch free throw attempts, it's not really surprising that people can recall seeing Paul miss clutch shots.

Okay, so the free throw percentages are some what reliable. But who dictates what "clutch" situation is? And I disagree that Pierce is "clutch" in general. Take a game like today. Pierce turned the ball over in crucial situations, he played poor defense when the game was on the line, and he stagnated the offense. So what if he would have actually hit that "clutch" free throw at the end of the game. He didn't deliver on all the plays that needed to be delivered on before that. If he hit that one free throw, does that make up for all of his sloppy play before that and make him a "clutch" performer? Now, slow down there, I already know what you're thinking. You're saying, yesterday's game was an aberration for Pierce. But the sad truth is that yesterday's game was not an aberration for Pierce. The thought that Pierce hustles and gives one hundred percent is a common misconception. Like another poster said in some other thread, when Pierce turns the ball over, ninety percent of the time he will fake an injury or argue with the official. When the chips are down, Pierce makes more mistakes than the other elite players in this league.

  Again, from those clutch stats, Paul turns the ball over more than Kobe but less than James, Wade or Chris Paul. I think that a lot of times when people claim that Celts players have either glaring or many faults compared to other players it's a case of seeing almost every game the Celts play in and the occasional game other players are involved in fortified by a number of espn type highlights.

[Roy Hobbs]

  Check out Paul's clutch stats on 82games:

06/07 season, 79.6% ft, 90.7% in clutch situations.
07/08 season, 84.3% ft, 83.3% in clutch situations.
07/08 playoffs, 80.2% ft, 88% in clutch situations.
08/09 season, 83% ft, 85.1% in clutch situations.

  Seems pretty clutch to me.

To play devil's advocate, I think that in this argument, you have to compare apples to apples.  The numbers you're citing to are mostly regular season "clutch" numbers, as defined by 82games.com.  That's, what, the last 2 minutes of a game, with the game within 5 points?

What the original poster is talking about is something much narrower: Pierce's performance from the line in game-tying or game-winning situations in the playoffs.  I'm not sure that regular season numbers taken from the last two minutes of games answers the question of how Pierce shoots his free throws.

As far as I know, there are no easily accessible stats for those situations (although there may be some regular season numbers to dig up).  My guess -- and it's only a guess -- is that Pierce's career percentage in such situations is in line with his FT% otherwise.  Anecdotally, it doesn't seem like he steps up his game from the line in playoff games, but I don't think he chokes, either.  Rather, it's a situation where people remember the misses but not the makes. 

I mean, here's the thing:  Pierce is roughly an 80% free throw shooter for his career, which suggests that he's going to miss 1 out of every 5.  If that one miss comes at the very end of a game, it's disappointing, but statistically isn't all that abnormal.

EDIT: See below.  Looks like overall, Pierce has been outstanding from the line.

[Roy Hobbs]

Okay, here are the stats for Pierce in truly "clutch" free throw situations (24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points):

Since the 2003-04 regular season, until February of this year, Pierce is 15 for 17 on "clutch" free throws.  That includes regular season and playoff games (but, as noted above, does not include this year's playoffs).  That's 88.2%, which is pretty darn good (and above his career average). 

Shockingly, Ray Allen is only 4-for-6 in those situations, and KG is 3-for-3.

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm 

[youcanthandlethetruth113]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

[Roy Hobbs]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

[LooseCannon]

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

Mathematically, if he is an 80% free throw shooter, he is going to make both 64% of the time, miss both 4% of the time and make exactly one 32% of the time.  So, he should split a pair roughly a third of the time, which is often enough that some people are going to perceive him as doing it "almost always".

[QuinielaBox]

Magic Johnson once missed 2 FTs in OT of Game 4 of the 1984 NBA Finals with the scored tied 123-123.

Does that mean he is not clutch?

[KungPoweChicken]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he has never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when your team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

[crownsy]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he's never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when you're team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

those are all nice ways of dodging the stats, and some might even have merit, but what your really getting at is that there is no way to prove your thesis other than " It feels this way to me, so it is in fact a truth (pardon the pun)"

I don't feel like you do, nor do i think the stats lie in this case. He's fine closing out games, but not as good as ray, since he's not as good of a FT shooter. He shoots low to mid 80's, so he will miss 1/5 or so, no matter what the situation.

[crownsy]

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

Mathematically, if he is an 80% free throw shooter, he is going to make both 64% of the time, miss both 4% of the time and make exactly one 32% of the time.  So, he should split a pair roughly a third of the time, which is often enough that some people are going to perceive him as doing it "almost always".

exactly, its a perception issue. TP for getting at what i was trying to say in a clearer fashion.

[BballTim]

  Check out Paul's clutch stats on 82games:

06/07 season, 79.6% ft, 90.7% in clutch situations.
07/08 season, 84.3% ft, 83.3% in clutch situations.
07/08 playoffs, 80.2% ft, 88% in clutch situations.
08/09 season, 83% ft, 85.1% in clutch situations.

  Seems pretty clutch to me.

To play devil's advocate, I think that in this argument, you have to compare apples to apples.  The numbers you're citing to are mostly regular season "clutch" numbers, as defined by 82games.com.  That's, what, the last 2 minutes of a game, with the game within 5 points?

What the original poster is talking about is something much narrower: Pierce's performance from the line in game-tying or game-winning situations in the playoffs.  I'm not sure that regular season numbers taken from the last two minutes of games answers the question of how Pierce shoots his free throws.

As far as I know, there are no easily accessible stats for those situations (although there may be some regular season numbers to dig up).  My guess -- and it's only a guess -- is that Pierce's career percentage in such situations is in line with his FT% otherwise.  Anecdotally, it doesn't seem like he steps up his game from the line in playoff games, but I don't think he chokes, either.  Rather, it's a situation where people remember the misses but not the makes. 

I mean, here's the thing:  Pierce is roughly an 80% free throw shooter for his career, which suggests that he's going to miss 1 out of every 5.  If that one miss comes at the very end of a game, it's disappointing, but statistically isn't all that abnormal.

EDIT: See below.  Looks like overall, Pierce has been outstanding from the line.

  I didn't feel the need to go back and check out his playoff stats from 5-6 years ago as all of the sampling was trending in the same direction. You might think the stats I provided were inappropriate (although your more refined stats are also seen as meaningless to stubborn posters) but it's still better than "I remember Paul missing a couple of fts back in 2002...

[BballTim]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he's never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when you're team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

  How often do you watch the Celtics play? About what percent of Paul's clutch situations (however you choose to define clutch) have you seen?