Paul Pierce is not clutch (from the free throw line)

[D Dub]

c'mon people!  does there need to be 3 threads a day on this site ripping the captain?!?

part of being a diehard fan is living with both the successes and failures of your best player.  get off Paul's jock already!!

[guava_wrench]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he has never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when your team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

"A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done."

This means absolutely nothing. Hobbs has put out stats that we can use to compare players with. You and certain others are posting feelings you get from plays that stick out for you. Of course you will remember Pierce misses more than Kobe or Lebron misses -- because your emotions were more engaged. But your arguments are unreasonable because they are purely based on you emotions and our cognitive deficiencies as humans.

These kinds of illogical arguments are common from people who rely on anecdotal data instead of taking a step back and really studying past results. Fortunately, we have posters like Hobbs who take the time to give us an empirical basis for our conclusions.

[cargomaniac]

Good God people. Pierce redefines the word clutch but God Forbid he is human and then
lets take him out and put him on the spit. We all wear rose coloured glasses for our
players from the past but even the greatest werent perfect. We just remember them that way. Pierce has earned his reputation as clutch and as the captain. I was stunned beyond belief when he inbounded yesterday in the first OT. We want our captain to be in the forefront period. As to the missed free throws..it happens.
If we played better as a team...we wouldnt be in this situation would we? Pierce is the man and our captain. Period.

[KungPoweChicken]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he has never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when your team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

"A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done."

This means absolutely nothing. Hobbs has put out stats that we can use to compare players with. You and certain others are posting feelings you get from plays that stick out for you. Of course you will remember Pierce misses more than Kobe or Lebron misses -- because your emotions were more engaged. But your arguments are unreasonable because they are purely based on you emotions and our cognitive deficiencies as humans.

These kinds of illogical arguments are common from people who rely on anecdotal data instead of taking a step back and really studying past results. Fortunately, we have posters like Hobbs who take the time to give us an empirical basis for our conclusions.

Yes you're right. Shooting 15 - 17 under twenty-four seconds closes the book on this issue. Thank God for Roy Hobbs! There's no arguing around those statistics. Not only is the sample size large, but it also takes into consideration all the others things that constitute what being "clutch" is all about. I would like to thank you for your insightful post.

[guava_wrench]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he has never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when your team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

"A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done."

This means absolutely nothing. Hobbs has put out stats that we can use to compare players with. You and certain others are posting feelings you get from plays that stick out for you. Of course you will remember Pierce misses more than Kobe or Lebron misses -- because your emotions were more engaged. But your arguments are unreasonable because they are purely based on you emotions and our cognitive deficiencies as humans.

These kinds of illogical arguments are common from people who rely on anecdotal data instead of taking a step back and really studying past results. Fortunately, we have posters like Hobbs who take the time to give us an empirical basis for our conclusions.

Yes you're right. Shooting 15 - 17 under twenty-four seconds closes the book on this issue. Thank God for Roy Hobbs! There's no arguing around those statistics. Not only is the sample size large, but it also takes into consideration all the others things that constitute what being "clutch" is all about. I would like to thank you for your insightful post.

Sounds like you are trying to be clever.

The point is, even if Hobbs' data isn't definitive, it is at least data, not just an emotional response. At least there is some substance that can be responded to.

You are just making assertions based on your "expertise" as an observer.

[crownsy]

And how many games has he finished off at the line? Nobody remembers those ones. He's going to miss 1/4 of them, late game or not.

give me a game in the playoffs where he has hit clutch free throws to finish the game. I love the guy but when the pressure is on at the free throw line in the playoffs he almost always chokes...

It was so obvious he was going to split a pair in both games. I agree with the title of this thread 100%. Pierce shoots well enough (and enough volume) from the stripe to go 80%, but when the games on the line he almost ALWAYS splits a pair. A sad truth.

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

Again, what some other posters and I are saying is that stats are misleading in diagnosing how "clutch" a player is: How many of Paul's fifteen made free throws were against a great team, how many of them were made when the Celtics were down by two points, how many of them were made when there was less than five seconds less, how many were made in a game that was for all practical reasons a must win? It seems silly to me to try and quantify "clutch." Yes, we know that Pierce has been a pretty good free throw shooter though out his career. But to say we should expect Pierce to miss one out of every how many free throws because that's what his "clutch" stats are is ridiculous. A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done. It doesn't matter if he shoots a putrid percentage for the whole game. When his team really needs him to step up, he gets the job done. In my eyes, Pierce is not this guy, and he has never been this guy. You can argue all you'd like to with your stats. But stats only paint a small piece of the canvas. Clutch is defined as a tense, critical situation. Tense and critical are subjective terms, I know. But for all practical reasons, we know that game ten of the regular season against the Clippers is no where near as tense as when your team is fighting for survival. When a game is extremely important and the tension level has reached its peak, I expect Pierce to not come through. In my opinion, levels of how clutch a situation is varies greatly during the last twenty-four seconds of a game. Of course, for all practical purposes they are all clutch situations. But my point, and the point I believe some others were making, is that when the situation is more urgent and critical than the others, have someone else shoot the ball.

"A player who is truly clutch just gets the job done."

This means absolutely nothing. Hobbs has put out stats that we can use to compare players with. You and certain others are posting feelings you get from plays that stick out for you. Of course you will remember Pierce misses more than Kobe or Lebron misses -- because your emotions were more engaged. But your arguments are unreasonable because they are purely based on you emotions and our cognitive deficiencies as humans.

These kinds of illogical arguments are common from people who rely on anecdotal data instead of taking a step back and really studying past results. Fortunately, we have posters like Hobbs who take the time to give us an empirical basis for our conclusions.

Yes you're right. Shooting 15 - 17 under twenty-four seconds closes the book on this issue. Thank God for Roy Hobbs! There's no arguing around those statistics. Not only is the sample size large, but it also takes into consideration all the others things that constitute what being "clutch" is all about. I would like to thank you for your insightful post.

sarcasm aside, what proof have you offered aside from "I know he's not clutch from the line, and stats don't count since they don't agree with me."



your opinion is your own, and certainly valid to you, but if your going to start a thread and question the issue, your objective is to prove your point, not stick to it and try to laugh off any discussion points to the contrary rather than address them.

Saying it's so and that people who don't agree with you are drinking the green koolaid while simultaneously disregarding all statistical evidence to the contrary  is not a compelling argument to me.

Your disregard of facts and insistence that your right and those that disagree are wrong for some vague reason is not going to get me to change my opinion, and sarcasm rather than refuting his points won't change much with me, thats all I'm saying.

[rondohondo]

Ok here I dug up some stats that prove my point that pierce is NOT a clutch free throw shooter. Again I am not saying pierce isn't clutch in gereral, I am talking strictly about free throw shooting.

http://www.82games.com/random23.htm

PP stats are near the bottom of the list .

Clutch free throw shooting according to this site are

Clutch Free Throw = under two minutes left in the game, neither team is ahead by more than three points. 


Why use this definition?

With only two minutes you are reaching the "tight" stage of the game
With a maximum margin of three points, it's a one possession game

I think this is a much better definition of clutch free throw shooting rather than 24 seconds or less left in the game, because the game isn't always won or lost on the last possesions.

These stats aren't totally up to date but they give a good indication as to who is clutch from the free throw line and who is not.

Data sample
2003-04 Regular Season games
2003-04 Playoff games
2004-05 Regular Season games
2004-05 Playoff games
2005-06 Regular Season games (to April 5th)

PP during these 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons:

Non Clutch Free throws: 81%

    Clutch Free throws: 69%

Add that to the examples I gave before of game 4 of the 2002 ECF and games 1 and 4 of this years playoffs against the bulls and it seems pretty apparent that PP is NOT a clutch free throw shooter......

[guava_wrench]

Ok here I dug up some stats that prove my point that pierce is NOT a clutch free throw shooter. Again I am not saying pierce isn't clutch in gereral, I am talking strictly about free throw shooting.

http://www.82games.com/random23.htm

PP stats are near the bottom of the list .

Clutch free throw shooting according to this site are

Clutch Free Throw = under two minutes left in the game, neither team is ahead by more than three points. 


Why use this definition?

With only two minutes you are reaching the "tight" stage of the game
With a maximum margin of three points, it's a one possession game

I think this is a much better definition of clutch free throw shooting rather than 24 seconds or left in the game, because the game isn't always won or lost on the last possesions.

These stats aren't totally up to date but they give a good indication as to who is clutch from the free throw line and who is not.

Data sample
2003-04 Regular Season games
2003-04 Playoff games
2004-05 Regular Season games
2004-05 Playoff games
2005-06 Regular Season games (to April 5th)

PP during these 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons:

Non Clutch Free throws: 81%

    Clutch Free throws: 69%

Add that to the examples I gave before of game 4 of the 2002 ECF and games 1 and 4 of this years playoffs against the bulls and it seems pretty apparent that PP is NOT a clutch free throw shooter......

What is most interesting in the stats is not the difference in % for Pierce, but how low the clutch % is: 69%.

I expect players like Pierce to shoot lower at those points in games due to fatigue induced by such physical play. PP also seems like a very emotional player who always wants to prove himself.

Thank you for actually providing data to support your stand. TP.

[TheReaLPuba]

Ok here I dug up some stats that prove my point that pierce is NOT a clutch free throw shooter. Again I am not saying pierce isn't clutch in gereral, I am talking strictly about free throw shooting.

http://www.82games.com/random23.htm

PP stats are near the bottom of the list .

Clutch free throw shooting according to this site are

Clutch Free Throw = under two minutes left in the game, neither team is ahead by more than three points. 


Why use this definition?

With only two minutes you are reaching the "tight" stage of the game
With a maximum margin of three points, it's a one possession game

I think this is a much better definition of clutch free throw shooting rather than 24 seconds or less left in the game, because the game isn't always won or lost on the last possesions.

These stats aren't totally up to date but they give a good indication as to who is clutch from the free throw line and who is not.

Data sample
2003-04 Regular Season games
2003-04 Playoff games
2004-05 Regular Season games
2004-05 Playoff games
2005-06 Regular Season games (to April 5th)

PP during these 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons:

Non Clutch Free throws: 81%

    Clutch Free throws: 69%

Add that to the examples I gave before of game 4 of the 2002 ECF and games 1 and 4 of this years playoffs against the bulls and it seems pretty apparent that PP is NOT a clutch free throw shooter......

That definition of "clutch free throws" is retarded.

If your team is up 3 points you can miss a free throw every once in a while and it's tolerable.

True "clutch free throws" is if you're down by 2 and you need to make 2 to tie.

And Roy Hobbs's link was closest to this definition.

Pierce deserves the blame for missing free throws in those games but being called unclutch is not accurate. He's never been a "very good" or "great" free throw shooter to begin with.

[Roy Hobbs]

Some interesting data here.  Paul's FT shooting with 5 minutes or less left, neither team up by more than 5 points (through 2009):

06/07 season, 79.6% ft, 90.7% in clutch situations.
07/08 season, 84.3% ft, 83.3% in clutch situations.
07/08 playoffs, 80.2% ft, 88% in clutch situations.
08/09 season, 83% ft, 85.1% in clutch situations.

Paul's FT shooting with 2 minutes left, neither team up by more than 3 points (through 2006):

Non Clutch Free throws: 81%

Clutch Free throws: 69%

Paul's FT shooting with 24 seconds left, neither team up by more than 2 points (through February 2009):

As the stats above say, in the last 24 seconds of games that are within 2 points, he is 15-for-17 since 2003 (not including this year's playoffs).  He's been excellent.

So, the net result is...  we don't know.  In the absolute most "clutch" situations, Pierce has been fabulous.  In other close games, he's been good overall, at least within the last five minutes of games.  However, he's been apparently pretty poor in one possession games when there have been between 120 and 24 seconds left.  Does that 96 second stretch at the end of games -- but not at the *very* end of games -- where he shoots relatively poorly make him "unclutch"?  I don't think so.  Rather, over time, I would expect him to regress towards the mean in all of the above game situations.

[guava_wrench]

An important question we are not answering:

Are the differences in % statistically significant? Any statisticians here?

[BouncingBuckeye]

No stats to back me up but my impression has always been that Pierce, a fine field goal shooter to begin with, shoots a bit better in the clutch, even in the most tense situations, where missing could affect a whole season.  OTOH, his FT shooting in the most crucial situations seems to fall a bit below his FT norm, which is pretty good but not up to the level of his FGshooting.

If I needed someone to make a clutch hoop I'd put him just a cut below the best Celtics clutch shooters from the past, Bird, Havlicek, White and Sam Jones.  He's a couple of cuts below when it comes to free throws.

[BASS_THUMPER]

when ye loved #8..walker..ye dissed and dismissed his game when he fell off...now ye paul p..the capt...seems to be in a lil rut. why do thy forsake our leader?...

faith fellow english men...


*dont bite*

[BballTim]

Ok here I dug up some stats that prove my point that pierce is NOT a clutch free throw shooter. Again I am not saying pierce isn't clutch in gereral, I am talking strictly about free throw shooting.

http://www.82games.com/random23.htm

PP stats are near the bottom of the list .

Clutch free throw shooting according to this site are

Clutch Free Throw = under two minutes left in the game, neither team is ahead by more than three points. 


Why use this definition?

With only two minutes you are reaching the "tight" stage of the game
With a maximum margin of three points, it's a one possession game

I think this is a much better definition of clutch free throw shooting rather than 24 seconds or less left in the game, because the game isn't always won or lost on the last possesions.

These stats aren't totally up to date but they give a good indication as to who is clutch from the free throw line and who is not.

Data sample
2003-04 Regular Season games
2003-04 Playoff games
2004-05 Regular Season games
2004-05 Playoff games
2005-06 Regular Season games (to April 5th)

PP during these 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons:

Non Clutch Free throws: 81%

    Clutch Free throws: 69%

Add that to the examples I gave before of game 4 of the 2002 ECF and games 1 and 4 of this years playoffs against the bulls and it seems pretty apparent that PP is NOT a clutch free throw shooter......

  I'd like to point out something based on my earlier post:


06/07 season, 79.6% ft, 90.7% in clutch situations.
07/08 season, 84.3% ft, 83.3% in clutch situations.
07/08 playoffs, 80.2% ft, 88% in clutch situations.
08/09 season, 83% ft, 85.1% in clutch situations.

  You see that, based on 82games regular definition of clutch FT shooting he was almost certainly over 85% since 2006. If you look at his "regular" clutch FT shooting over the timeframe you're looking at (2003-2006) his clutch ft% is about 74%. Since his overall clutch FT shooting has improved significantly since 2005-2006 it's likely that the numbers that you're using aren't really representative of Pierce over the last 3 years. It's clearly an area where he's improved on over time.

[DarkAzcura]

Pierce has never been clutch at the free throw line. In general, he hasn't been a clutch player period. He's always been okay, but he's never been close to the level of a player like Kobe or Michael at the end of the game. There are many, many, many players I would want with the ball in their hands at the end of the game other than Pierce. (And this is coming from a pretty big Pierce fan.)

Yes, Pierce has blown two games in this Chicago series all by himself. He has looked disinterested, and his lack of hustle in this series has been infuriating.

I'm sorry you aren't that big of a Pierce fan if you didn't even bother to look up the clutch time stats to realize that not only has Pierce been a very efficient clutch player (takes the right show, gets to the free throw line, turns it over less then others, and passes it to the right person usually), but Kobe is a pretty average (maybe even bad?) clutch player.

Probably the most overrated "clutch" player to ever play the game.